Stay ahead in your fantasy football league by understanding the crucial strength of schedule changes that could alter player performance at the tight end position!
Which tight ends have the toughest or easiest fantasy schedules this year? Which tight ends had the toughest or easiest schedules last year? Or what about the toughest or easiest schedules in the fantasy postseason? Or to start the season? Which tight ends saw their schedules improve the most or least? How big of an impact was that change in schedule? Can we quantify that change in real terms using fantasy points?
Luckily for our subscribers, we can answer all of these questions and more. But to do so, we first had to quantify strength of schedule. This is typically done by calculating a defense’s FPG allowed average, and then looking at the average for all players over a full season. This will also be our approach; however, we’ll be taking things one step further — we will use a control for the opposing offense by measuring FPG over an opponent’s average.
For instance, last season, opposing tight ends averaged +4.0 fantasy points per game over their season-long average when facing the Colts, which ranked worst in the league. (The Colts were the most favorable fantasy matchup for opposing tight ends — worth, on average, an additional 4.0 fantasy points per game.) On the opposite end of the spectrum, tight ends fell short of their season-long average by 4.0 fantasy points when facing the Chargers, which ranked best in the league. (The Chargers were the toughest fantasy matchup for opposing tight ends.) Calculating these numbers for all teams and then applying the full-season average for all players quantifies in real terms which players had the easiest and most difficult schedules for fantasy last year. We can also use these numbers to project out strength of schedule for each team and each position in 2025.
Ah, then, you might ask: “Do defenses get defined as ‘tough’ matchups because bad TE play against them is dragging the numbers down?” Not for this study. The strength of schedule average used in this study controls for the quality of the opponent by eliminating a team’s own TE performance against each specific defense. So, this SOS study filters out the notion that the TE being studied was responsible for his own schedule difficulty.
While this methodology isn’t perfect — of course, roster turnover and coaching changes will complicate things — strength of schedule doesn’t not matter. This data is still far more actionable than it is not. In fantasy football — like in poker — there may only be small edges to be gained, but those small edges can be compounded to yield a massive advantage. And they must be taken advantage of … and are, by the most dominant players. That’s the case with strength of schedule. It’s another small edge to be realized, and at the polar extremes, it might matter a lot more than you’d expect.
Here’s an example: last season, Evan Engram had the toughest schedule among all fantasy tight ends. His average matchup last year was worth -1.16 [team tight end] FPG. Because he was responsible for roughly 74% of the fantasy points generated by Jacksonville’s tight ends last year (in games played), we can say that — adjusted for strength of schedule, or if he had a perfectly neutral strength of schedule last year — he would have scored an additional +0.86 fantasy points per game.
Looking forward, Denver TEs have the 11th-softest strength of schedule (+0.31). Factoring in both points, Engram’s schedule is much improved (most improved at the position) and worth a boost of +1.09 FPG (adjusting for usage). In other words, if he had this schedule last year, he would have finished 8th at the position in FPG (11.2) instead of 13th (10.1).
Other Positions
Quarterbacks (click here)
Running Backs (click here)
Wide Receivers (click here)
Best Overall Schedule (2024)
1. T.J. Hockenson, Average Matchup: +1.08
2. Juwan Johnson (+0.70)
t3. Chig Okonkwo (+0.65)
t3. Tyler Conklin (+0.65)
5. Noah gray (+0.56)
Worst Overall Schedule (2024)
1. Evan Engram (-1.16)
2. Isaiah Likely (-1.13)
3. Pat Freiermuth (-0.99)
4. Cade Otton (-0.62)
5. Austin Hooper (-0.60)
2025 Schedule
PDF and CSV downloads available here.
Best Overall Schedule (Weeks 1-17)
1. Kyle Pitts (+0.66)
2. Trey McBride (+0.57)
3. Elijah Arroyo & Noah Fant (+0.50)
4. Mason Taylor (+0.47)
5. Tyler Conklin (+0.47)
Worst Overall Schedule (Weeks 1-17)
1. Travis Kelce (-1.01)
2. Brock Bowers (-0.98)
3. T.J. Hockenson (-0.75)
4. Zach Ertz (-0.70)
5. Jake Ferguson (-0.70)
Off to a Hot Start (First Five Games)
1. Hunter Henry (+1.30)
2. Kyle Pitts (+1.08)
3. Brenton Strange (+1.00)
4. Dalton Schultz (+0.98)
5. Jonnu Smith (+0.78)
Slow Starters (First Five Games)
1. Tucker Kraft (-1.78)
2. Juwan Johnson (-1.50)
3. Travis Kelce (-1.40)
4. Jake Ferguson (-1.08)
5. Cade Otton (-1.06)
Best Playoff Schedule (Weeks 15-17)
1. Elijah Arroyo & Noah Fant (+2.70)
2. Jonnu Smith (+2.30)
3. Evan Engram (+1.87)
4. Mark Andrews & Isaiah Likely (+1.57)
5. Sam LaPorta (+1.40)
Worst Playoff Schedule (Weeks 15-17)
1. Travis Kelce (-2.50)
2. Zach Ertz (-2.43)
3. T.J. Hockenson (-2.20)
4. Brock Bowers (-2.13)
5. Dalton Kincaid & Dawson Knox (-1.57)
Schedule Change (In Real Points)
Most Improved Schedule
1. Evan Engram (+1.09)
2. Trey McBride (+0.80)
3. Pat Freiermuth (+0.75)
4. Sam LaPorta (+0.67)
5. Isaiah Likely (+0.62)
Least Improved Schedule
1. T.J. Hockenson (-1.11)
2. Brock Bowers (-1.07)
3. Travis Kelce (-0.74)
4. Zach Ertz (-0.70)
5. Jake Ferguson (-0.57)
Thoughts / Notes / Dank Stats
1) Trey McBride gets both the 2nd-easiest overall TE schedule and the 2nd-most improved schedule after playing the 8th-toughest among 24 qualifying fantasy-relevant TEs in 2024. This, in addition to the likely positive TD regression coming his way — he should have scored ~5.8 more TDs, equivalent to about ~2.0 more FPG in PPR leagues based on our expected touchdown model — appears to paint a bullish picture for him in 2025 after he commanded the highest first-read target share by a TE in Fantasy Points Data history. Unfortunately, forward-looking projections capture this, so it’s all more than “priced in” to McBride’s 22.7 overall Underdog ADP. There, he’s going ahead of WRs like Tee Higgins, who we project to average nearly 2.0 more FPG and who fills one of three WR spots in your lineup (as opposed to only one TE spot). The direct comparison to Higgins is appropriate; with these lineup settings, TEs closely track WRs in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at every scoring level. In other words, there’s nothing extra valuable or magical about points coming from your lineup’s TE slot; it only makes sense to take one if you believe he’ll outscore all available WRs. In a managed league context, consider that since 2017, Travis Kelce is the only TE to have posted a league-winning season from inside the top-40 by ESPN ADP, and that to do so, he usually had to average at least 18.0 FPG (or at least ~15.0 FPG in half-PPR terms). Our projections (with TD regression built in) place McBride well below these benchmarks. The bar for a TE to return value at this early an ADP is just dizzyingly high, and through three NFL seasons, McBride has never shown the level of hyper-efficiency needed to make it happen. For further perspective, Kelce averaged 0.47 FP/RR in 2022 (in half-PPR scoring), the last time he paid off an early ADP. McBride has never exceeded 0.37 FP/RR. I’ll get a little exposure when he falls past his Underdog ADP into the flat tier of WRs that exists in Round 3 — as McBride could thread the needle of running especially hot on TDs while Marvin Harrison Jr. fails to take any step forward in Year 2 — but he just isn’t a target for me at this point.
2) I could write a virtually identical blurb about Brock Bowers, with the only differences being that his schedule ranks 2nd-worst among TEs — being worth about -1.07 fewer FPG than last year — and that his ADP (15.8 overall on Underdog) is even higher, requiring you to select him ahead of Drake London and De’Von Achane. We even have him projected slightly behind McBride, partially reflecting an expectation that Raiders OC Chip Kelly will call a more run-heavy and slower-paced offense (like at Ohio State last year) compared to the last time we saw him in the NFL. But despite all that, I do believe there’s a better chance of Bowers breaking fantasy leagues in 2025 than McBride. We’re talking about the player who just averaged the most FPG of any rookie TE since the Vietnam War while setting the rookie receptions record (at all positions). If we remove the four games from Bowers’ rookie season in which 3rd-stringer Desmond Ridder played significant snaps, he’d have averaged 17.3 FPG — within spitting distance of Travis Kelce’s league-winning 18.0 FPG benchmark. He now gets to play with Geno Smith, who ranks top-5 in accuracy when targeting the middle of the field and under whom the Seahawks ranked 2nd-best in target share to the slot (37.5%). Overall, I’m just much less comfortable limiting Bowers’ potential to be a hyper-efficient freak than I am with McBride, and there’s a world where the Raiders’ dreadful secondary forces them to go incredibly pass-heavy all the same. I’m still expecting to come in under market on the early TEs, but I’m more inclined to take occasional shots on Bowers.
3) It’s been speculated that Evan Engram will play the role of Sean Payton’s “joker” (and the Broncos may have told him this when he signed). Payton has frequently trolled us with these suggestions in the recent past — remember when he made us high on Jaleel McLaughlin? — but the potential of a TE seeing Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara, or Jimmy Graham-esque usage should get our attention. I ultimately believe it’s more likely Round 2 rookie RB R.J. Harvey (an athletic near-clone of Bush, but thicker) gets this distinction than a soon-to-be 31-year-old Engram who can’t play in-line coming off shoulder surgery, but that doesn’t mean we can’t be intrigued. Engram has ranked top-6 among TEs in TPRR over each of the past two seasons and easily led the position in targets (140) in 2023. He gets the position’s most improved overall schedule and 3rd-easiest fantasy playoff schedule. And this Broncos team is perfect for him to play the slot/WR hybrid role in which he excels most, with no WR on the team aside from Courtland Sutton exceeding a 53% route share or a 13% target share in 2024.
4) For all the praise I heaped on Brock Bowers’ rookie season, I could almost say the same of Sam LaPorta, who averaged just 0.7 fewer Underdog FPG than Bowers as a rookie but disappointed in 2024. However, he was playing through injury for much of the season, having pulled his hamstring in August, sprained his ankle in Week 3, and sprained his AC joint in Week 10. After resting in Week 11, LaPorta’s improved health showed in his route participation, jumping from 66.2% (~TE18) to 77.0% (~TE5). Then, over his final eight games (including playoffs), he averaged 51.4 receiving YPG and 11.5 Underdog FPG on 7.1 targets per game, all marks that would have ranked top-5 at the position and which near-perfectly mirrored his rookie season production. Underdog drafters still aren’t getting a discount on that production at LaPorta’s TE4 ADP. But relative to Bowers this year or LaPorta’s own ADP last year, the opportunity cost of betting on LaPorta to be a transcendent talent is now merely a player like Jakobi Meyers or David Montgomery. He has the 4th-most improved schedule and a top-5 fantasy playoff schedule at the position, including a possible shootout in a dome against the Vikings in Week 17. I’ll take him in stacks.
5) Travis Kelce draws both the toughest overall schedule and the toughest playoff schedule at the TE position. And although this is just a three-game sample, it’s not lost on me that Kelce averaged only 3.7 Underdog FPG on a 14.7% first-read target share across three games at the beginning of 2024 with both Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy available — a scenario that seems increasingly likely for the start of 2025, with Rice’s legal and injury situations appearing promising. In fact, Kelce averages just 6.6 Underdog FPG (~TE17) on 5.7 targets per game (~TE11) in regular season games where Rice ran over a 60% route share since he was drafted. He’s been more productive in the NFL playoffs, but that’s probably by design; HC Andy Reid has been talking about managing Kelce’s reps for over a year, and it makes sense they wouldn’t want to push the 35-year-old during the regular season. Despite the load management, Kelce’s 1.62 YPRR in 2024 was the lowest of his career. Kelce projects as a value for us at his TE7 ADP outside the top-100, but I’m still terrified to click him.
6) T.J. Hockenson has a bottom-3 overall and fantasy playoff schedule, but is being drafted as the Underdog TE5. Even after getting back up to a full-time route share from Week 12 on, he averaged just 6.9 Underdog FPG (~TE17) on a 16.6% target share (~TE13). The market seems to be giving him the benefit of the doubt that 2024 was a lost season after his December 2023 ACL tear, and that’s fair to an extent. But it’s also massive that Jordan Addison has since emerged as the clear #2 option on this Vikings offense, averaging 15.3 Underdog FPG (to Justin Jefferson’s 16.3) over this same period. It also gives me pause that Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell was so adamant (per the CoachSpeak Index Discord) that Jordan Mason will help the offense out in goal-line situations. The Vikings had previously ranked top-8 in pass rate from inside the 10-yard line during all of O’Connell’s seasons, where Hockenson has scored 4 of his 8 TDs since joining the team. I clearly prefer LaPorta to Hockenson at ADP, but in reality, I prefer waiting even longer at the position to both options.
7) Brenton Strange draws a top-3 schedule at the position over the first five weeks, opening the season with matchups against Panthers and Bengals teams that each ranked top-6 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing TEs in 2024. Strange enters a Year 2 breakout window as the top TE on the Jaguars’ depth chart after averaging 5.0 targets/game and 8.4 FPG across eight games without Evan Engram. For perspective, that’s roughly what Dalton Kincaid averaged as a rookie. The difference is that Strange will be virtually free in managed leagues and is currently just the TE19 on Underdog. He’s an excellent early-season streamer who could develop into more on an offense led by Liam Coen, who we just saw scheme Cade Otton (of all players) into 19.8(!!) FPG across three games without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
8) Similarly, Hunter Henry would be my second choice as an early streamer, as he boasts the single softest schedule of any TE over the first five games and gets the Raiders in Week 1. In 10 full games with Drake Maye last year, Henry ranked inside the top-12 at the position in targets per game (5.9), receiving YPG (44.9), and Underdog FPG (7.9). Vegas lookahead lines now imply the Patriots to average 22.2 PPG in 2025 — more than 2.0 full points more than last season and about on par with the Dallas Cowboys. In an improved offense that hasn’t added an obvious target hog, Henry is a screaming value at his TE22 Underdog ADP.
