2025 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: RBs

Stay ahead in your fantasy football league by understanding the crucial strength of schedule changes that could alter player performance at the running back position!

Which running backs have the toughest or easiest fantasy schedules this year? Which running backs had the toughest or easiest schedules last year? Or what about the toughest or easiest schedules in the fantasy postseason? Or to start the season? Which running backs saw their schedules improve the most or least? How big of an impact was that change in schedule? Can we quantify that change in real terms using fantasy points?

Luckily for our subscribers, we can answer all of these questions and more. But in order to do so, we first had to quantify strength of schedule. This is typically done by calculating a defense’s FPG allowed average, and then looking at the average for all players over a full season. This will also be our approach; however, we’ll be taking things one step further — we’re going to use a control for the opposing offense by measuring FPG over an opponent’s average.

For instance, last season, opposing running backs averaged +6.2 fantasy points per game over their season-long average when facing the Panthers, which ranked worst in the league. (The Carolina Panthers were the most favorable fantasy matchup for opposing running backs last year — worth, on average, an additional 6.2 fantasy points per game.)

On the opposite end of the spectrum, running backs fell short of their season-long average by 5.3 points when facing the Chiefs, which ranked best in the league. (The Chiefs were the toughest fantasy matchup for opposing running backs last year.) Calculating these numbers for all teams and then applying the full-season average for all players quantifies in real terms which players had the easiest and most difficult schedules for fantasy last year. We can also use these numbers to project out strength of schedule for each team and each position in 2025.

Ah, then, you might ask: “Do defenses get defined as ‘tough’ matchups because bad RB play against them is dragging the numbers down?” Not for this study. The strength of schedule average used in this study controls for the quality of the opponent by eliminating a team’s own RB performance against each specific defense. So, this SOS study filters out the notion that the RB being studied was responsible for his own schedule difficulty.

While this methodology isn’t perfect — of course, roster turnover and coaching changes will complicate things — strength of schedule doesn’t not matter. This data is still far more actionable than it is not. In fantasy football — like in poker — there may only be small edges to be gained, but those small edges can be compounded to yield a massive advantage. And they must be taken advantage of … and are, by the most dominant players. That’s the case with strength of schedule. It’s another small edge to be realized, and at the polar extremes, it might matter a lot more than you’d expect.

Here’s an example: last season, Kyren Williams had the toughest schedule among all fantasy running backs. His average matchup last year was worth -1.27 [team running back] FPG. Because he was responsible for roughly 88% of the fantasy points generated by Rams running backs last year (in games played), we can say that — adjusted for strength of schedule, or if he had a perfectly neutral strength of schedule last year — he would have scored an additional +1.12 fantasy points per game. Looking forward, Williams’ schedule is much improved (most improved at the position) and worth a boost of +1.58 FPG (adjusting for usage). Just this alone would have been the difference between him finishing 6th (18.8) instead of 9th (17.2) in FPG.

Clearly, strength of schedule – something totally outside of a player’s control and entirely due to luck – can have a big impact for fantasy.

Other Positions

Quarterbacks (click here)

Wide Receivers (click here)

Tight Ends (click here)

Best Overall Schedule (2024)

1. Alvin Kamara, Average Matchup: +0.95

2. Breece Hall (+0.87)

3. Javonte Williams (+0.66)

4. Joe Mixon (+0.53)

5. Bijan Robinson (+0.46)

Worst Overall Schedule (2024)

1. Kyren Williams (-1.27)

2. Rhamondre Stevenson (-0.90)

t3. Chase Brown (-0.60)

t3. Tyrone Tracy (-0.60)

5. Rico Dowdle (-0.58)

2025 Schedule

PDF and CSV downloads available here.

Best Overall Schedule (Weeks 1-17)

1. Alvin Kamara (+1.34)

2. Bijan Robinson (+0.89)

3. Christian McCaffrey (+0.87)

4. James Conner (+0.76)

t5. Chuba Hubbard (+0.74)

t5. Breece Hall (+0.74)

Worst Overall Schedule (Weeks 1-17)

1. Jahmyr GIbbs & David Montgomery (-1.22)

2. Derrick Henry (-1.13)

t3. D’Andre Swift (-0.89)

t3. Cam Skattebo & Tyrone Tracy (-0.89)

5. Aaron Jones (-0.71)

Off to a Hot Start (First Five Games)

1. De’Von Achane (+2.12)

2. Chuba Hubbard (+1.88)

3. James Conner (+1.84)

4. Rhamondre Stevenson & TreVeyon Henderson (+1.70)

5. Alvin Kamara (+1.64)

Slow Starters (First Five Games)

1. Derrick Henry (-2.24)

2. Josh Jacobs (-2.15)

3. Saquon Barkley (-1.40)

4. Cam Skattebo & Tyrone Tracy (-1.36)

5. D’Andre Swift (-1.33)

Best Playoff Schedule (Weeks 15-17)

1. Bucky Irving (+2.57)

2. Kenneth Walker (+2.20)

3. Breece Hall (+2.13)

4. Alvin Kamara (+1.90)

5. Jonathan Taylor (+1.57)

Worst Playoff Schedule (Weeks 15-17)

1. Omarion Hampton (-2.63)

2. Kaleb Johnson (-2.17)

3. James Cook (-1.83)

4. Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery (-1.60)

5. Cowboys RBs (-1.33)

Schedule Change (In Real Points)

Most Improved Schedule

1. Kyren Williams (+1.58)

2. Rico Dowdle (+1.02)

3. Rhamondre Stevenson (+0.82)

4. Chuba Hubbard (+0.75)

5. Jonathan Taylor (+0.71)

Least Improved Schedule

1. Jahmyr Gibbs (-0.97)

2. Derrick Henry (-0.94)

3. D’Andre Swift (-0.81)

4. Aaron Jones (-0.78)

5. Jordan Mason (-0.69)

Thoughts/Notes/Dank Stats

1) Kyren Williams had the softest schedule of any RB in 2023 (+1.13), and then the toughest schedule of any RB in 2024 (-1.27). Controlling for SOS, Williams would have scored 20.3 FPG in 2023 and 18.5 FPG in 2024. In 2025, he’ll have the most improved schedule of any RB, but that will only matter if he holds onto his role as the unquestioned RB1. There’s somewhat of a chance Sean McVay’s bell cow philosophy has changed after seeing what his protégé Liam Coen achieved with Bucky Irving — either Blake Corum or Round 4 rookie Jarquez Hunter could fill that role. And it wouldn’t be entirely out of character for McVay to suddenly shift his affinity to a different RB; Williams played only 138 snaps as a rookie (just 22 more than Corum’s rookie year) before McVay fed him 18.9 XFP/G on a 76.8% snap share the following season, both the most by any Year 2 RB in Fantasy Points Data history. Still, Williams’ upside is obvious; he’s been a league-winner (by ESPN playoff rate) each of the past two seasons, a feat McVay’s players have achieved more often than those of any other coach in recent history. This balance of risk and reward seems pretty appropriately accounted for in Williams’ RB12 Underdog ADP, so perhaps the bigger takeaway is to go all-in with final-round picks in managed leagues this August on whichever of Corum or Hunter receives more preseason buzz.

2) Derrick Henry has the 2nd-toughest overall schedule by FPG allowed to RBs (-1.13), but the 10th-easiest during the fantasy playoffs (+0.73). Even better, the Ravens are favored by lookahead lines during all three of their games from Weeks 15-17 (@CIN, NE, @GB), setting up one of the NFL’s most game script-sensitive players for massive late-season performances if the Ravens indeed pull out ahead in these matchups. All of these games taking place outdoors in cold December climates, and Henry’s historical late-season dominance only make this juicier. If Henry gets off to a slow start against the single-toughest schedule for an RB over the first five weeks (@ BUF, CLE, DET, @ KC, HOU), he’ll be an immediate buy-low candidate.

3) Josh Jacobs similarly has the 2nd-toughest schedule of any RB over the first five weeks (-2.15), with difficult matchups against Detroit and Washington to open the year, in which the Packers likely won’t be able to play the slow, ball-control style they thrived on against inferior opponents for much of the second half of 2024. Jacobs is another of the NFL’s most game script-sensitive RBs — averaging a full 7.0 more Underdog FPG in wins since 2022 and just 13.4 Underdog FPG in losses (~RB18) in 2024. When I consider this fact along with the Packers’ opponents ranking among the top-8 toughest by Vegas win total and their three fantasy playoff matchups against likely competitive opponents (@DEN, @ CHI, BAL), I’m less enthusiastic about labeling him an early-season buy-low target than I am Henry.

4) The last of our pre-emptive potential buy-low targets is easily my favorite — Bucky Irving gets the 7th-toughest RB schedule over the first five weeks of the season, but the single-softest schedule in the fantasy playoffs. It’s easy to imagine the cost of acquiring him to plummet after matchups against the Texans, Jets, and Eagles over the first month, particularly if managers panic over Irving and Rachaad White continuing the 55/45 snap and workload split we saw at the end of last season. In that scenario, I’d remain confident in Irving’s ability to earn more work as the season goes on and the schedule gets lighter, given his hyper-efficiency — ranking top-4 as a rookie in all of YPC (5.42), MTF/A (0.26), and YACO/A (3.02) — and history of maximizing his fantasy production on limited snaps. Either way, Irving should reward patient managers in late-season matchups against a weak NFC South, especially if the team again scales up his workload for a playoff push. (Remember, Irving received 17 of 18 backfield carries in the Wildcard game with the season on the line.)

5) Kenneth Walker is blessed with the 8th-easiest season-long schedule and the 2nd-easiest fantasy playoff schedule for RBs. It’s also a nice bonus that the Seahawks are favored in two of three fantasy playoff games (vs. IND and @CAR), but Walker has been surprisingly game script-proof since last year, when the team committed to using him on all three downs and allowed him to set a career-high 16.8 XFP/G. He’s also sure to benefit from new OC Klint Kubiak’s RB screen usage and outside zone scheme. He remains one of the best values on the board at his RB19 Underdog ADP.

6) Though they collectively rank 6th-toughest by FPG allowed to RBs (entirely because of one Week 16 matchup against the Chiefs), Tony Pollard's fantasy playoff opponents allowed the 6th-most rushing FPG last season. His Week 17 game against the Saints is one of only two in which the Titans are favored in lookahead lines. Pollard was one of the NFL’s most game script-sensitive players in 2024, averaging 18.4 Underdog FPG (~RB4) in wins. He needs rookie Cam Ward to outplay what the Titans got from Will Levis last year to pay off as a season-long bet, but this game against a tanking Saints team in championship week is a small feather in his cap regardless.

7) Chuba Hubbard is an even better bet in the same vein as Pollard. His schedule is better overall (5th-easiest across the full season, 2nd-easiest over the first five games, and the 4th-most improved of any RB) while the Panthers’ opponents collectively have the 5th-lowest win total according to Vegas. The Panthers themselves are only expected to win 6.5 games, but another step forward from Bryce Young could easily lead to them outperforming that in a weak NFC South. If that’s what happens, Hubbard is primed to go off; he averaged a league-leading 25.0 Underdog FPG wins last year, but just 11.2 FPG in losses (would have ranked ~RB25). Hubbard was used as an every-down bell cow in 2024, as is now typical of HC Dave Canales’ backfields. His lead backs have averaged 16.3 weighted opportunities per game (~RB8) over the past two years, a trend Rico Dowdle seems unlikely to disrupt. Hubbard is a screaming value at his RB18 Underdog ADP and especially makes sense as a correlated season-long bet on teams with Young.

8) The 49ers have the NFL’s easiest schedule by opponent implied win total. That’s massive even for a game script-proof bell cow like Christian McCaffrey, who leads all RBs with 21.1 Underdog FPG in wins over the past three seasons and should benefit from grinding the clock down as the 49ers sustain leads. McCaffrey additionally faces the 3rd-easiest schedule among RBs across the full season and is reportedly fully healthy with no restrictions. There’s certainly risk that comes with selecting him at the Round 1/2 turn, but the easy schedule really puts the cherry on top of the potential reward; over the past four seasons, McCaffrey leads all RBs in Underdog FPG (18.7, nearly a full point ahead of the next-closest RB) and XFP/G (18.6) while ranking top-5 in both snaps per game (43.9) and routes per game (21.0). He’s one of the NFL’s last remaining every-down bell cows, maintaining an 87.9% snap share (would have led all RBs) across his only three healthy games in 2024. If he stays healthy and the 49ers capitalize on this schedule, McCaffrey will smash his late Round 1 ADP.

9) Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have the single-toughest RB schedule and a bottom-five fantasy playoff schedule consisting of the Rams, Steelers, and Vikings. They are also losing former OC Ben Johnson, who led the team to two consecutive top-6 finishes in rushing YPG and oversaw the NFL’s most valuable fantasy backfield in 2024. New OC John Morton is a Dan Campbell and Sean Payton disciple who is expected to keep much of the same offense in place, but is it impossible to think he could alter the nearly perfect 50/50 XFP split we saw between Gibbs and Montgomery over the first 14 games of 2024? On just 66.4% of the snaps (~RB10) across four games with Montgomery out or limited (including playoffs), Gibbs averaged an absurd 165.5 YFS/G and 30.9 Underdog FPG. That’s hard to put back in the bottle; if Morton does disrupt this backfield’s touch distribution, I’d expect it to be in favor of Gibbs. On top of that, Montgomery’s fantasy scoring was much more game script- and blowout-reliant last year; he averaged just 13.3 Underdog FPG in games the Lions didn’t win by multiple scores, compared to 16.4 FPG in games they did. (Gibbs averaged 17.8 FPG in blowouts and 17.5 FPG in non-blowouts with Montgomery active.) The likelihood that the Lions do not blow out as many teams in 2025 (they have the 2nd-toughest schedule by opponent win total) makes Montgomery’s RB23 ADP tough to swallow for me.

10) Omarion Hampton makes a lot of sense as a bet on a hyper-athletic rookie RB with Round 1 draft capital who should fully overtake Najee Harris by the second half of the season (even if Greg Roman is obsessed with including inferior RBs in his committees). When a talented rookie is discounted in the market because of early-season workload concerns, I love drafting him and reaping the benefits in the more valuable late-season weeks. But that idea gets interrupted by Hampton’s brutal fantasy playoff schedule, ranking by far the toughest in the league (-2.63) and including matchups against tough Eagles, Chiefs, and Texans fronts in December. That won’t entirely stop me from loading up on Hampton at his RB15 Underdog ADP — he’s an excellent prospect, and there are a ton of worlds in which he’s scoring as a top-8 RB as early as October — but we should note that his late-season appeal comes with an asterisk.

11) A similar concern applies to Kaleb Johnson, who has just Round 3 draft capital on his side (compared to Hampton’s Round 1) and arguably tougher competition in Jaylen Warren. Warren was hampered by injury in 2024 but previously led the NFL in MTF/touch. Per the CoachSpeak Index Discord, the Steelers view Warren as “starter-capable” and are already planning for him to take pass protection (at minimum) off Johnson’s plate. Johnson’s “reward” if he manages to take over the backfield by the end of the season culminates in the 2nd-worst fantasy playoff schedule (-2.17), with nightmare matchups against the Ravens, Lions, and Browns in Weeks 14, 16, and 17. At Johnson’s RB25 ADP, I prefer selecting Tony Pollard or waiting several rounds for a not-too-dissimilar bet in Bhayshul Tuten.

12) Fellow rookie Quinshon Judkins gets an inversion of Hampton’s and Johnson’s problems. He’ll face the 6th-toughest RB schedule over the first five weeks before it lightens up to the 7th-easiest during the fantasy playoffs. I have fewer concerns about Judkins’ early-season workload, but much greater ones about this offensive environment, regardless of his schedule from a fantasy lens. The Browns in 2025 receive the 3rd-toughest real-life strength of schedule by opponent implied win total after having by far the NFL’s least valuable backfield in 2024. Jameis Winston aside, that mostly happened because they couldn’t sustain drives and quickly fell out of games, with 73% of their offensive plays spent trailing (worst in the NFL). Judkins will only truly benefit from the schedule easing up late in the season if a functional QB has by then emerged from the group of Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, and Shedeur Sanders. There’s serious late-season tank and shutdown risk for every Browns skill player.

13) Jonathan Taylor has the 5th-most improved schedule after a down year, averaging just 16.9 Underdog FPG against the 7th-toughest schedule in 2024. But we’ve seen what Taylor can do against inferior competition; he averaged 30.3 Underdog FPG (fewer than only Jahmyr Gibbs) from Weeks 16-18 against hapless Titans, Giants, and Jaguars teams to close out 2024 after I spent weeks telling people to trade for him before the deadline in managed leagues. Taylor’s 2025 fantasy playoff schedule ranks 5th-easiest, so that’s the upside. The downside is that while the playoff schedule looks nice on paper by our adjusted FPG allowed formula, I’m unconvinced the Seahawks, 49ers, and Jaguars in 2025 will be anywhere close to as big of pushovers for opposing run games. I’m somewhere between cautiously and wildly optimistic about all three of those offenses, which could well script Taylor out entirely (he averaged just 1.0 target per game with Anthony Richardson under center). The same is largely true for the rest of the Colts’ schedule; aside from the two games against the Titans, I’m seeing a distinct lack of obvious disaster teams for the game script-sensitive Taylor to beat up on. Some could well emerge as injuries take their toll throughout the season, but I’m always happier to attempt to trade for players like Taylor when I have a better handle on upcoming game scripts than to draft him when we have the least information.

14) Alvin Kamara has the easiest schedule of any RB for the second season in a row. The Saints also have the 3rd-softest real-life schedule, which theoretically helps even pass-catching RBs like Kamara. I’m just not sure how much this will matter after Derek Carr’s retirement. Kamara averaged just 11.8 Underdog FPG (~RB21) in three games without Carr last year as the Spencer Rattler-led Saints received lashings at the hands of the Buccaneers, Broncos, and Chargers. New HC Kellen Moore is a competent and fast-paced playcaller, but I’m dubious of whether he’ll be able to cover up the deficiencies of Rattler or Round 2 rookie Tyler Shough enough to squeeze much production out of a less-than-explosive 30-year-old version of Kamara. He’s also unlikely to feature any RB in the screen game as heavily as Klint Kubiak did, accounting for 2.7 of Kamara’s FPG from 2024 in Underdog scoring (3rd-most). Of course, much of this is priced into Kamara’s RB20 ADP, but I still view Kamara as a much different (and worse) bet than he was last year at a similar discount.

15) James Conner sees the 3rd-easiest RB schedule over the first five weeks and the 4th-easiest across the full season, a big improvement from his 11th-toughest schedule last year. With a slate headlined by juicy Week 1 and Week 2 matchups against the Saints and Panthers, Conner should get off to a roaring start, and I’ll likely play him a lot in DFS early in the season. But I’ll be watching his underlying usage in comparison to Trey Benson closely — per the Coachspeak Index Discord, the Cardinals view both of their backs as starters. Benson never cracked a 36% snap share as a rookie. If he gets anywhere close to that in the first few weeks of the season while Conner produces against soft matchups despite it, he could quickly turn into a sell-high candidate. Historically, Benson’s strong Day 2 draft capital is more predictive of Year 2 production than his light rookie season workload is foreboding. With Conner approaching the Age Cliff (surely, any year now), Benson could well be the one to benefit from the schedule by the end of the year.