The NFL schedule started to trickle out in the weeks after the draft before the league revealed the entire 2025 schedule on May 14. Sportsbooks released their Week 1 opening lines and totals for the weekend of Sept. 4-8, which kicks off with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Dallas Cowboys in a matchup of NFC East rivals. I recently released my updated Post-Draft Power Rankings, and I’ve included my line projection for every Week 1 contest.
The Sunday night game between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills is the only game with a total in the 50s on the board at 51.5 points. The Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets are on the other end of the spectrum with the lowest total at 39.5 points. The Washington Commanders and Denver Broncos are the biggest favorites on the board as 7-point home favorites over the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans, respectively. A whopping five games are tied for the tightest spread at 1.5 points. It’s time to dive into these matchups to see if there are any lines that we should bet on now or if there are any lines we should hold off betting until closer to the start of the season.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
Week 1 Opening Lines
Lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of May 15.
| Matchup | Time |
| Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 46.5) | 9/4 8:20 p.m. |
| Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 44.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Brazil | 9/5 8:20 p.m. |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5, 48.5) at Atlanta Falcons | 9/7 1 p.m. |
| New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-7, 45.5) | 9/7 1 p.m. |
| Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 45.5) | 9/7 1 p.m. |
| Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5, 43.5) | 9/7 1 p.m. |
| Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 45.5) at Cleveland Browns | 9/7 1 p.m. |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 39.5) at New York Jets | 9/7 1 p.m. |
| Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 46.5) | 9/7 1 p.m. |
| Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 41.5) at New Orleans Saints | 9/7 1 p.m. |
| Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7, 41.5) | 9/7 4:05 p.m. |
| San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 45.5) at Seattle Seahawks | 9/7 4:05 p.m. |
| Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 46.5) | 9/7 4:25 p.m. |
| Detroit Lions (-1.5, 49.5) at Green Bay Packers | 9/7 4:25 p.m. |
| Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 51.5) | 9/7 8:20 p.m. |
| Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 45.5) at Chicago Bears | 9/8 8:15 p.m. |
NFL Kickoff Game
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 46.5)
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Eagles -7.5
The NFL season will start in Philadelphia for the second time in the last eight years. The Eagles will begin their journey to defend their Super Bowl title against the division-rival Cowboys, who are in their second NFL Kickoff Game in the last five years. Philadelphia won 16 of its last 17 games and scored 95 points in its final two victories to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Dak Prescott will make his first appearance since needing hamstring surgery in mid-November, and he’ll throw to his newest weapon, George Pickens, whom the Cowboys acquired after the draft. The Eagles smoked the Cowboys by a combined 75-13 score in two meetings last season, but both games came without Prescott. I typically bake in 1.5 points for home-field advantage, but I gave the Eagles 2 points at Lincoln Financial Field on Super Bowl ring night. I see some slight value with the Eagles if you can bet them under the key number of -7.
Friday
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 44.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, São Paulo, Brazil
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Chiefs -2
The NFL is heading back to Brazil in the opening week for the second straight year. The Eagles and Packers combined for 63 points in the NFL’s debut in South America, despite a slick playing surface at Arena Corinthians. The season's second game will feature another pivotal divisional showdown, this time in the AFC West. Kansas City is looking to get a jumpstart on winning its 10th consecutive division title with a victory in the opener, while Los Angeles hopes to send an early message to the Chiefs and the rest of the conference. The Chiefs swept the Chargers in a pair of one-score games last season — they split ATS, and both games fell under the total by a combined 21.5 points. I lean toward grabbing the points with the Chargers in this neutral-site matchup, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs have a small crowd advantage.
Sunday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5, 48.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Buccaneers -1.5
Michael Penix will make his first opening day start on the road against the Buccaneers. The Falcons spent a pair of first-round picks on pass rushers, Jalon Walker and James Pearce, who will look to speed up Baker Mayfield, who is coming off career highs in passing yards (4500) and passing TDs (41). One of his top weapons, Chris Godwin, is pushing to be ready for Week 1 after suffering his second serious leg injury in the last four years. The Falcons swept the Buccaneers outright and ATS in a pair of exciting matchups last year, which featured a combined 123 points from the two teams. This line looks spot on compared to my projections.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-7, 45.5)
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Commanders -8
Washington’s once-dormant fan base has been energized by a new ownership group and the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels. The NFL rewarded them with a season-opening home matchup against the rival Giants, when Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil will make their debuts. The Commanders swept the Giants outright and ATS in a pair of one-score games last season, with their Week 2 matchup going under the total and the Week 9 matchup finishing over the total. Second overall pick Abdul Carter will look to give Tunsil and Daniels headaches in the season opener. Russell Wilson is expected to get the call against the Commanders, but first-round pick Jaxson Dart could push for the job in training camp. The Commanders would go off closer to double-digit favorites if the Giants give Dart the nod in Week 1.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 45.5)
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Pick ’em
Anthony Richardson enters a make-or-break third season after the Colts signed Daniel Jones to apply some pressure behind him. I’m anticipating Richardson opening the season as the starter, barring a complete collapse in training camp, and he gets a winnable first matchup against a Dolphins team that’s moving in the wrong direction. Terron Armstead retired in early April, and Jalen Ramsey could be traded before the start of the season — I have the Dolphins finishing under their 8.5 win total. Sportsbooks are even lower on the Dolphins than I am with the Colts opening as short favorites.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5, 43.5)
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Patriots -1.5
The Patriots have been one of the biggest risers this off-season after finishing 2024 with one of the league’s worst rosters. New England addressed a lot of needs in its first free agency with Mike Vrabel as head coach, and it went to work bolstering Drake Maye’s O-line and weapons in the draft. The new-look Patriots will look to win on opening day for the second straight year after stunning the Bengals on the road last season. The Raiders also underwent a major overhaul, hiring Pete Carroll, trading for Geno Smith, and drafting Ashton Jeanty. Smith produced three straight winning seasons as the starter in Seattle, including twice with Carroll as head coach. I see some value if you can bet the Raiders catching a field goal or more.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 45.5) at Cleveland Browns
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Bengals -5.5
Cincinnati is looking to get off to a better start after losing to the lowly Patriots at home in last year’s season opener. The Bengals started last season 1-7 in one-possession games before winning five straight games to end the campaign, which was too little, too late to qualify for the postseason. It’s anybody’s guess who will be at quarterback for the Browns in the season opener. Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders, and Kenny Pickett will battle in training camp to be the Week 1 starter for a franchise that’s taking a gap year in 2025. This line looks spot on compared to my projections.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 39.5) at New York Jets
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Steelers -1
The Steelers and Jets could be on the verge of flipping their Week 1 starting quarterbacks from 2024. Justin Fields opened last season with a 4-2 record as Pittsburgh’s starter before sliding to the bench, and he bolted for New York and $30 million guaranteed in free agency. The Steelers currently don’t have a starting quarterback, but they have a standing offer out to New York’s 2024 starter, Aaron Rodgers, who is still deciding his future. The Steelers beat the Rodgers-led Jets 37-15 in Week 7 last season in Russell Wilson’s first start. I see value in betting the Jets getting a full field goal as home underdogs, especially since the line should be closer to a pick-em if Rudolph is the Week 1 starter.
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 46.5)
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Jaguars -2.5
The last two offensive coordinators for Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers will square off in the season opener. Dave Canales and Liam Coen landed shiny new toys for their former #1 overall picks when they selected Tetairoa McMillan and Travis Hunter inside the top eight picks in late April. Bryce Young and the Panthers are looking to build off some late momentum last season, while Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars want to turn the page on a miserable end to the Doug Pederson era. This line looks spot on compared to my projections.
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 41.5) at New Orleans Saints
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Cardinals -3.5
The Saints sank to the bottom of my power rankings after Derek Carr surprisingly announced his retirement in May, which leaves second-round pick Tyler Shough as the favorite to be the opening day starter. The Cardinals have quietly flown under the radar in the NFC West this off-season, but they’ve made several savvy moves to improve their defense by adding players like Josh Sweat, Walter Nolen, and Will Johnson. This line is a bit inflated because of the New Orleans quarterback situation, but I can’t put my money on the Saints at this point.
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7, 41.5)
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Broncos -7.5
The first overall pick will make his NFL debut on the road in one of the NFL’s most hostile environments in Denver. Ward and Tennessee’s offense will be immediately tested against one of the league’s best defenses, led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain. The Broncos snapped an eight-year playoff drought in Bo Nix’s first season and Sean Payton’s second as head coach, and they’ll look to get off on the right foot against the NFL’s worst team in 2024. I lean toward betting the Broncos, but I won’t wager on them unless this line dips below the key number of 7.
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 45.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: 49ers -2.5
San Francisco is coming off a last-place finish in the NFC West, and they let several key players leave as they prepare to pay Brock Purdy soon. Seattle also transitioned to a new phase in Year 2 with Mike Macdonald, turning over its quarterback and wide receiver spots. The Seahawks shipped Geno Smith, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett out of town, and brought in Sam Darnold and Cooper Kupp in their place. The 49ers and Seahawks split two matchups outright and ATS last season, with one game going under the total and the other finishing over the total. I lean toward the 49ers on the road, but I’d like to get a better look at both of these teams before I wager on them.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 46.5)
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Rams -2.5
This is an intriguing cross-conference matchup between two teams looking to climb into the top tier of their respective conferences. Houston owned one of the league’s worst O-lines before trading Laremy Tunsil and Kenyon Green. This shaky group will be tested by Braden Fiske and the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, Jared Verse. The Rams offense swapped out Cooper Kupp for Davante Adams, whose chemistry with Matthew Stafford will be immediately tested by Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter. This line looks spot on at 2.5 points compared to my projections, but I’ll take the Texans catching +3.5 points at DraftKings.
Detroit Lions (-1.5, 49.5) at Green Bay Packers
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Lions -.5
The Packers will open at Lambeau Field for the first time since 2018, and they’ll do it against the defending NFC North champion Lions. The NFC North is the most wide-open division race from top to bottom, with all four teams sitting at +500 odds or better to win the division. This matchup could go a long way to determining the eventual NFC North champion, and it’s a true toss-up game with split favorites depending on your sportsbook of choice. The Lions will debut a pair of new coordinators after Ben Johnson (Bears) and Aaron Glenn (Jets) took head coaching jobs. The Lions swept both matchups against the Packers last season, which included a split ATS.
Sunday Night
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 51.5)
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Bills -1.5
The week’s premier matchup features a rematch of the AFC Divisional Round showdown between the Ravens and Bills. Buffalo beat Baltimore 27-25 as 1-point home underdogs in a game totaled at 52 points last January. The Ravens previously pounded the Bills by 25 points in a September matchup. This game features the last two MVP winners, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, and the co-leaders in rushing TDs from last season, Derrick Henry and James Cook. This line looks spot on compared to my projections.
Monday Night
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 45.5) at Chicago Bears
Brolley’s Power Ranking Projection: Bears -1
Week 1 ends with a showdown of NFC North foes and J.J. McCarthy’s professional debut. The Vikings let Sam Darnold walk in free agency, clearing the path for McCarthy to lead the offense after missing his entire rookie season because of a knee injury. He’ll square off against fellow second-year QB Caleb Williams, whom the Bears front office invested heavily in this off-season. They landed the most-coveted head coaching candidate in Ben Johnson, revamped the interior O-line in free agency, and selected weapons Colston Loveland and Luther Burden in the draft. The Vikings swept the Bears in two matchups last season, with the Vikings covering in one game and the teams pushing in the other. This game features a split favorite depending on what sportsbook you’re looking at, and I believe the Bears should be the slight favorites.
Brolley’s Best Bets & Leans
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+3, FanDuel). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 15.
Houston Texans (+3.5, DraftKings) at Los Angeles Rams. Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 15.
