The 2025 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2025 NFL Rushing Touchdowns Props for the league’s top players at the skill positions. In this article, I highlighted a bet I’ve already made on Joe Mixon, Ashton Jeanty, and Chase Brown, and a couple of additional wagers I considered.
Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Rushing Touchdown Props.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
2025 NFL Rushing Touchdowns Props
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points rushing touchdown projection. Target the Lowest Rushing Touchdown totals for over wagers and the Highest Rushing Touchdown totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), ESPN Bet (ESPN), and Bet365 (365) to find the best touchdown totals as of June 10.
| Player | FP Projection | Highest TD Total (under) | Lowest TD Total (over) |
| Derrick Henry (Bal) | 13.7 | 13.5 (-110, DK) | 13.5 (-105, ESPN) |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) | 12.7 | 10.5 (-110, DK) | 9.5 (-135, ESPN) |
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | 12.1 | 10.5 (-120, MGM) | 9.5 (-150, ESPN) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 11.8 | 12.5 (-110, DK) | 10.5 (-130, CZR) |
| Saquon Barkley (Phi) | 11.6 | 11.5 (-110, DK) | 10.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 11.2 | 9.5 (-110, MGM) | 9.5 (+100, DK) |
| Jonathan Taylor (Ind) | 10.2 | 9.5 (-105, DK) | 9.5 (+100, ESPN) |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 10.1 | 11.5 (+100, 365) | 10.5 (-105, ESPN) |
| James Cook (Buf) | 9.9 | 9.5 (-110, MGM) | 8.5 (-130, ESPN) |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 9.5 | 7.5 (-145, 365) | 6.5 (-115, 365) |
| Chuba Hubbard (Car) | 9.0 | 6.5 (-150, CZR) | 6.5 (+125, ESPN) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 9.0 | 10.5 (-110, DK) | 10.5 (+110, ESPN) |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC) | 8.5 | 6.5 (-130, 365) | 5.5 (-125, ESPN) |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 8.4 | 7.5 (-110, DK) | 6.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Chase Brown (Cin) | 8.3 | 5.5 (-115, CZR) | 5.5 (+100, ESPN) |
| James Conner (Ari) | 8.2 | 7.5 (-125, CZR) | 7.5 (+105, ESPN) |
| Joe Mixon (Hou) | 8.0 | 10.5 (-120, MGM) | 10.5 (+125, CZR) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | 5.5 | 5.5 (-105, DK) | 5.5 (-115, DK) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 3.1 | 4.5 (-135, DK) | 3.5 (-135, MGM) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Joe Mixon (Hou) under 10.5 rushing TDs (-120, BetMGM)
Risk 1.2 units to win 1 unit. Placed June 10.
Mixon’s stranglehold on Houston’s backfield is weakening entering his second season with the Texans. Houston signed Nick Chubb to a contract in early June after drafting Woody Marks in the fourth round, which is a signal that they want to reduce Mixon’s workload. Mixon ranked fourth in carry share (66.9%) and second in inside-the-5 carry share (87.5%) on his way to scoring 11 TDs. New play-caller Nick Caley is expected to move the running game from an outside-zone scheme to more man/gap concepts. Ryan Heath believes Dameon Pierce could even have some life entering the final year of his rookie contract because he excelled in more of a man/gap scheme as a rookie.
Mixon sat out off-season workouts for an ankle injury, which comes after he sustained an ankle injury on a hip-drop tackle that caused him to miss three games. He also played through an ankle injury in the postseason, so his ankle issues are stacking up in the last 12 months as he enters his ninth season with 1816 regular-season carries under his belt. We projected Mixon for 9.9 rushing TDs before the Chubb signing and adjusted to 8.0 TDs after the signing. BetMGM stuck with Mixon’s line of 10.5 rushing TDs, making the under a worthy bet.
Ashton Jeanty (LV) over 6.5 rushing TDs (-115, Bet365)
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit. Placed June 4.
The Raiders spent top-10 draft capital to select Jeanty to be their new bell-cow back. Jeanty led the FBS in rushing attempts (374) and rushing yards (2601) last season, and only Bryson Daly topped his 29 rushing TDs. Jeanty will step into the lead-runner role under OC Chip Kelly, and his only competition for touches comes from a 33-year-old Raheem Mostert, Sincere McCormick, and Zamir White. Jeanty’s workload should rank among the league’s best for the position, and the acquisition of Geno Smith should elevate Las Vegas’ offense to a slightly below-average unit. Las Vegas’ offensive line will need to perform better after ranking 29th in adjusted YBC/ATT (1.55) and 31st in success rate (40.8%), but Jeanty will also help Las Vegas’ O-line perform better. Chip Kelly’s offenses in Philadelphia (2013-15) and San Francisco (2016) each ranked in the top 13 in rushing TDs with 15+ scores in each of his four NFL seasons. Our projections have Jeanty clearing his rushing TD total by three full scores.
Chase Brown (Cin) over 5.5 rushing touchdowns (+100, ESPNBet)
Risk 1 unit to win 1 unit. Placed June 4.
Brown completely took over Cincinnati’s backfield after Zack Moss suffered a season-ending neck injury, and he ranked as the RB4 (20.8 FPG) from Week 9 through the end of the season. Brown scored 7 rushing TDs in his second season, ranking ninth in inside the 10-yard carries (28). He also finished 13th in inside the 5-yard carries (12), converting 5 of those opportunities into touchdowns. Moss will need to prove he’s worthy of a roster spot off a nasty injury, and the Bengals added just Samaje Perine and sixth-round pick Tahj Brooks to this backfield. The Bengals finished fifth in offensive touchdowns with 59, but only 11 of their scores (18.6%) came on the ground. Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s passing attack will continue to carry most of the weight for one of the league’s high-scoring offenses, but the split between passing and rushing TDs will balance out more this season. That will help Brown’s touchdown production, which is why we have him projected well over his TD prop with 8.3 TDs.
Brolley’s Leans
Kyren Williams (LAR) under 11.5 rushing touchdowns (+100, Bet365)
Williams is searching for a contract extension heading into the final year of his rookie contract after scoring 26 rushing TDs. The Rams have more leverage to let him play out the final year of his contract by selecting Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter in the last two drafts. McVay has a long history of featuring his backs in bell-cow roles, but he could work Corum and Hunter into the mix after Williams averaged 20.8 touches per game the last two seasons. Williams finished with the highest snap share (86.4%) at the position last season and led the league in inside-the-5 carries (19) and touchdowns (12). Los Angeles also signed Davante Adams to replace Cooper Kupp this off-season, which could lead to a more pass-heavy attack. The Rams ranked 23rd in pass rate over expectation (-1.1%) overall and 26th in PROE inside the 5-yard line (-9.8%). We’re projecting Williams’ touchdown luck to regress to 10.1 rushing scores after hitting 12+ TDs in each of the last two seasons.
Chuba Hubbard (Car) over 6.5 rushing touchdowns (+125, ESPNBet)
Hubbard impressed the Panthers so much the last two seasons that they locked him up to a contract extension last November to prevent him from hitting free agency. He’s coming off career-highs in carries (250), rushing yards (1195), and rushing TDs (10), which helped the Panthers go from 13.9 PPG in 2023 to 20.1 PPG in 2024. Hubbard ranked third in snap share (77.8%), third in carry share (68.1%), and fifth in inside-the-5 carry share (80.8%). He has more competition for goal-line opportunities than he ever had from 2024 second-round pick Jonathon Brooks last season. The Panthers signed 1000-yard rusher Rico Dowdle and drafted Trevor Etienne in the fourth round, which could hurt his overall opportunities. Carolina’s offense should continue to trend upward as Bryce Young enters his third season, especially after drafting Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall, which could make up for any lost carries to Dowdle and Etienne. We have Hubbard projected for 9.0 rushing TDs, which makes this over a potentially juicy play if you can get plus-money odds.
