The 2025 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2025 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props, and it’s time to dive into the 2025 NFL Most Receiving Touchdowns Odds for the top receivers. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on CeeDeeLamb and Tee Higgins and a pair of additional wagers I strongly considered.
Ja’Marr Chase easily led the league with 17 receiving TDs, and our subscribers cashed in +1800 odds on him in this article last year! Terry McLaurin (13, +5000) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (12, +1400) finished well off of Chase’s pace in 2024. Chase (+600) is the favorite to lead the league in receiving touchdowns entering his age-25 campaign. He’s followed by Justin Jefferson (+1200), Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1400), Mike Evans (+1600), Davante Adams (+1600), Nico Collins (+1600), and Terry McLaurin (+1600) at 16/1 odds or shorter.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
Receiving Touchdown Leaders From the Last 8 Seasons
| Year | Receiver | Age | Receiving TDs | Odds (rank) |
| 2024 | Ja’Marr Chase | 24 | 17 | +1000 (3rd) |
| 2023 | Hill (Mia)/Evans (TB) | 30/29 | 13 | +1400 (8th)/+3000 (18th) |
| 2022 | Davante Adams (LV) | 29 | 14 | +900 (3rd) |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 28 | 16 | +6600 (25th) |
| 2020 | Davante Adams (GB) | 27 | 18 | +1000 (2nd) |
| 2019 | Kenny Golladay (Det) | 25 | 11 | +6500 (40th) |
| 2018 | Antonio Brown (Pit) | 30 | 15 | +420 (1st) |
| 2017 | DeAndre Hopkins (Hou) | 25 | 13 | +3300 (14th) |
Historical Hints
We have odds for only the last eight years at our disposal, and the league leader in receiving touchdowns has come from all over the odds board. DeAndre Hopkins (+3300), Kenny Golladay (+6500), Cooper Kupp (+6600), and Mike Evans (+3000) each hit at +3000 odds or longer. Antonio Brown (+420), Davante Adams (+900/+1000), and Ja’Marr Chase (+1000) led the league as chalkier options at +1000 odds or shorter. Adams is the only player in the last decade to lead the league in receiving TDs more than once. Chase was the youngest leader in the last eight years, and he ended a four-year run of the leader being 27 years old or older. The NFL’s receiving touchdown leader has reached 13+ touchdowns in seven of the last eight years.
2025 NFL Most Receiving Touchdowns Odds
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points receiving touchdown projections. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Receiving TDs to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), Caesars (CZR), ESPN Bet (ESPN), and Bet365 (365) as of July 14.
| Receiver | FP Projection | Longest Odds | Shortest Odds |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | 10.6 | +600 (multiple) | +550 (CZR) |
| Justin Jefferson (Min) | 8.8 | +1200 (365) | +800 (ESPN) |
| Tee Higgins (Cin) | 8.8 | +2800 (CZR) | +2000 (365) |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 8.8 | +1600 (ESPN) | +1000 (DK/CZR) |
| CeeDee Lamb (Dal) | 8.4 | +2000 (ESPN) | +1200 (DK/CZR) |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 8.3 | +1600 (ESPN) | +1000 (DK) |
| D.K. Metcalf (Pit) | 8.1 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +3300 (365) |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 8.0 | +3000 (DK/CZR) | +2500 (ESPN/365) |
| Drake London (Atl) | 8.0 | +2000 (multiple) | +1800 (ESPN) |
| Courtland Sutton (Den) | 8.0 | +3000 (multiple) | +3000 (multiple) |
| Brian Thomas (Jax) | 7.8 | +2000 (ESPN) | +1600 (DK/365) |
| Marvin Harrison (Ari) | 7.8 | +2200 (ESPN/365) | +1800 (DK/CZR) |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 7.6 | +2500 (ESPN) | +1800 (DK/CZR) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | 7.6 | +1400 (365) | +1200 (DK) |
| Nico Collins (Hou) | 7.5 | +1600 (ESPN/CZR) | +1400 (365) |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 7.3 | +2000 (365) | +1600 (DK) |
| A.J. Brown (Phi) | 7.2 | +2000 (ESPN/365) | +1800 (DK/CZR) |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 6.7 | +5000 (DK/ESPN) | +2000 (CZR) |
| Terry McLaurin (Was) | 6.4 | +1600 (ESPN) | +1200 (DK/CZR) |
| Tetairoa McMillan (Car) | 6.4 | +6000 (365) | +5000 (multiple) |
| Jaylen Waddle (Mia) | 6.3 | +8000 (365) | +4000 (CZR) |
| Sam LaPorta (Det) | 6.3 | +4000 (CZR) | +3000 (DK/ESPN) |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 6.2 | +3000 (multiple) | +3000 (multiple) |
| Receiver | FP Projection | Longest Odds | Shortest Odds |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sea) | 6.2 | +3500 (CZR) | +3000 (DK/ESPN) |
| DeVonta Smith (Phi) | 6.0 | +6000 (CZR) | +3500 (365) |
| Jordan Addison (Min) | 6.0 | +7500 (DK/ESPN) | +5000 (365) |
| Calvin Ridley (Ten) | 5.9 | +6000 (CZR) | +4500 (DK) |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 5.8 | +5500 (365) | +5000 (multiple) |
| George Kittle (SF) | 5.8 | +2500 (ESPN) | +1600 (CZR) |
| Travis Hunter (Jax) | 5.8 | +7500 (365) | +6000 (multiple) |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 5.8 | +6500 (CZR) | +3000 (DK) |
| Trey McBride (Ari) | 5.7 | +5000 (365/CZR) | +5000 (365/CZR) |
| D.J. Moore (Chi) | 5.7 | +3500 (365) | +3000 (multiple) |
| George Pickens (Dal) | 5.7 | +5500 (365) | +5000 (multiple) |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 5.5 | +4000 (multiple) | +3000 (CZR) |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 5.5 | +4000 (CZR) | +3000 (DK) |
| Zach Ertz (Was) | 5.5 | +10000 (365) | +7500 (CZR) |
| Zay Flowers (Bal) | 5.4 | +3500 (ESPN) | +2500 (DK) |
| Jameson Williams (Det) | 5.4 | +5500 (365) | +4000 (CZR) |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 5.4 | +5000 (DK/365) | +2200 (CZR) |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 5.4 | +10000 (365) | +5000 (CZR) |
| Mark Andrews (Bal) | 5.4 | +3000 (ESPN) | +1700 (DK) |
| Rome Odunze (Chi) | 5.3 | +15000 (ESPN) | +6000 (CZR) |
| Keon Coleman (Buf) | 5.2 | +8000 (365) | +7500 (multiple) |
| Jakobi Meyers (LV) | 5.1 | +8000 (365) | +7500 (multiple) |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 4.9 | +10000 (ESPN) | +5500 (365) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
CeeDee Lamb (Dal) most regular season receiving touchdowns (+2000, ESPNBet)
Risk .4 units to win 8 units. Placed July 14.
We wagered on Dak Prescott to throw the most passing touchdowns in early July, and I’m also seeing some value in his star receiver to lead the league in receiving touchdowns. Lamb had the shortest odds to lead the league in receiving TDs before last season at +850. He finished with a disappointing 6 TDs in 15 games last season, but Cooper Rush led the team in pass attempts after Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury. He previously finished one score behind league leaders Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans in 2023, who each found paydirt 13 times.
The Cowboys have arguably the NFL’s worst backfield, led by Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. They finished 11th in pass rate over expectation (1.1%) from inside the 5-yard line last season with a similarly weak backfield, and they could skew more pass-heavy in those situations with Prescott back in the mix. Lamb ranked 13th in end-zone targets (12) last season, and he finished second with 21 end-zone looks in 2023 when the Cowboys ranked fourth in PROE (7.9%) from inside the 5-yard line. Dallas’ defense also took a significant step back last season, allowing the second-most PPG (27.5) and the fifth-most YPG (355.2). The Cowboys could find themselves in more potential shootouts even if Dallas’ defense improves from last year’s debacle. The Cowboys added George Pickens to play alongside Lamb, who should take some pressure off of Lamb and free him up for more 1-on-1 opportunities after he lined up next to Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert last season. This is a chance to buy low on Lamb’s odds after last year’s subpar performance, primarily without Prescott.
Tee Higgins (Cin) most regular season receiving touchdowns (+2800, Caesars)
Risk .25 units to win 7 units. Placed July 14.
We’ve projected Higgins’ teammate, Ja’Marr Chase, to lead the league with 10.6 receiving touchdowns. We actually have Higgins in a three-way tie for second with Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson at 8.8 TDs. Higgins has struggled to stay on the field the last two seasons, but he wins at all levels of the field and is a dominant perimeter option at 6’4”, 219 pounds when available. He missed five games for the second straight season because of quad and hamstring injuries, but he still finished with a career-high 10 TDs. Higgins hung with Chase in the TD department on a per-target and per-route basis last season.
Higgins scored 10 times on 109 targets (9.2%) and 430 routes (2.3%), which is comparable to Chase, who led the league with 17 scores on 175 targets (9.7%) and 698 routes (2.4%). Chase tied Courtland Sutton and Justin Jefferson for the league lead in end-zone targets (18), but Higgins actually led the league in end-zone targets per game (1.42). The Bengals ranked second in pass rate over expectation from inside the 5-yard line at 22.9%, and Joe Burrow’s 71 passes from inside the 10-yard line were 22 more than the next closest QB, Patrick Mahomes. Higgins will stay busy at the goal line, and he just needs to stay healthy to vie for the touchdown crown.
Brolley’s Leans
Nico Collins (Hou) most regular season receiving touchdowns (+1600, ESPNBet)
Collins has established himself as one of the NFL’s best receivers, finishing behind only Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown in YPRR last season (2.94) and behind only Tyreek Hill in 2023 (3.37). Collins has finished as a top-eight fantasy WR in each of his first two seasons playing with C.J. Stroud. Collins has scored 15 TDs in 27 games over the last two seasons, finding paydirt on 7.2% of his targets (208) in that span. He’s seen 21 end-zone targets over that span, scoring on 9 of those looks.
Collins’ 23.8% target share from last season has a chance to rise with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell being replaced by Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Nico reached 1000+ yards last season despite missing five games for a hamstring injury, and he’s missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons since the Texans selected him 89th overall in 2021. He’s clearly one of the NFL’s best receivers with an ascending quarterback, and no one would be surprised if he challenges for the NFL’s receiving touchdown crown with better injury luck.
D.K. Metcalf (Pit) most regular season receiving touchdowns (+4000, DraftKings)
The Steelers targeted Metcalf in the trade market and handed him a five-year, $150 million deal once they landed him. He averaged 8.0 TDs per season in his first six years in Seattle, but he’s coming off a career-worst 5 receiving TDs. He averaged 8.7 targets per game with four 99+ yard performances and 3 TDs through the first seven games before picking up an MCL injury in Week 7, which ended his career-best pace. He missed two games before averaging 5.9 targets per game with no performances of more than 70 receiving yards and 2 TDs in the final eight games. He saw just 10 end-zone targets last season after totaling 38 EZ targets in 2022-23.
Aaron Rodgers loves to pepper his top receiver, and Metcalf is the clear #1 after Pittsburgh traded George Pickens to the Cowboys in May. He’ll be competing with Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin, and Roman Wilson for looks, so he has a chance to be among the league leaders in target share. Metcalf could be Rodgers’ new Davante Adams, who saw 12 end-zone targets and scored seven touchdowns in 11 games with Rodgers last season. Pittsburgh’s offense should be more balanced than last season, when they ranked 29th in pass rate over expectation, which gives Metcalf a chance to challenge for the league lead in touchdowns.
Rashee Rice (KC) most regular season receiving touchdowns (+5000, DraftKings)
We’re projecting Rice to score the 18th-most receiving touchdowns at 6.7 scores, but he finds himself well down the odds board as a 50/1 longshot. Rice scored 9 TDs in his first 19 healthy games on 131 targets (6.9%), including 2 scores in his first three contests before his season-ending knee injury in Week 4. He owned a 31.5% target share in his three full games, which would’ve ranked behind only Malik Nabers and A.J. Brown over the entire season, and his 41.2% first-read share would’ve ranked behind only Nabers.
Rice will face more target competition than he faced at the beginning of last season. Travis Kelce is still a factor in the middle of the field, Xavier Worthy excelled in Rice’s role in the second half of 2024, and Hollywood Brown is back to full strength. Rice is at least tied to a quarterback who led the league in passing TDs twice in the last seven seasons, and Patrick Mahomes has reached 37+ TD passes four times in that span. Rice could be the biggest beneficiary if Mahomes’ 4.5% TD rate from the last two seasons spikes toward his 6.5% TD rate from his first five seasons as a starter.
