Six quarterbacks were taken in the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, a feat that will likely never be duplicated. Two made the playoffs (Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix), and one has yet to play in a regular-season game (J.J. McCarthy). Caleb Williams got his career off to a slow start after being taken first overall, and both Drake Maye and Michael Penix eventually took over for veteran starters.
I took a deep dive into their 2024 tape to project what their 2025 seasons could look like. For clarity of the rankings, these are how I see these quarterbacks heading into year two based on their rookie year film and where their abilities should be after a full offseason of development. There will be some fantasy projection, but these are closer to power rankings than true fantasy rankings.
(Don’t worry, Ryan Heath stopped by to offer true fantasy analysis, as well.)
There’s a legitimate chance the 2024 quarterback class will be one of the best ever. Let’s get into the breakdowns.
6. J.J. McCarthy (Min)
McCarthy is a tougher projection since he only had 17 preseason pass attempts before injuring his knee last year. Those 17 passes were impressive, but the Las Vegas defense he faced in the first preseason game last year is a lot different than what he’ll face in the regular season.
I was pleased with how confident and smooth McCarthy was in the pocket, as well as how quickly he accelerated once he got into space. Is he a Lamar Jackson/Jayden Daniels running threat? No, but he’ll eat up chunks of yards if the defense lets him, and could steal come touchdowns around the goal line.
He looked great as a passer against the Raiders, but I can’t put much faith in that performance immediately translating to the regular season. That said, it’s clear how NFL-ready McCarthy was coming out of Michigan, as he stood in against pressure, analyzed coverages, and delivered strikes to all levels of the field. He honestly looks like a perfect fit for Kevin O’Connell’s wide zone/play action-based offense. My biggest concern is whether or not his average-plus arm strength will get him in trouble.
The Vikings have given him every weapon he could ask for and rebuilt the interior of the offensive line by bringing in Ryan Kelly and Will Fries this offseason. McCarthy will be more than a game manager in his first full season, but I don’t think he’ll surpass 4,300 yards and throw for 35 touchdowns like Sam Darnold did last year. However, I’m comfortable saying he’ll have over 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns. Minnesota’s offense is too good for him not to hit those numbers, and if he doesn’t, then there will be a lot of questions around McCarthy after the season.
I have him at No. 6, because he hasn’t thrown a real NFL pass yet, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended the season in the top half of the list. I can’t advise drafting McCarthy high and making him your Week 1 starter, but he’s worth stashing on your roster.
Ryan Heath’s Fantasy Takeaway
I agree with everything above… up until the point where we began doubting McCarthy in relation to Darnold. Darnold had never thrown for more than 3,024 yards or 20 TDs in any NFL season prior to playing in O’Connell’s system, which has ranked top-6 in pass rate over expectation and top-5 in red zone pass rate every year he’s been a head coach. Joshua Dobbs (19.9 FPG in full games) and Nick Mullens (17.9 FPG) have put up ~top-12 numbers in this offense; I have no doubts about McCarthy’s ability to do the same.
I’d rather have McCarthy than both Michael Penix and Caleb Williams in fantasy football, making him an ideal final-round target for those punting the position.
Ryan’s fantasy ranking among sophomore QBs: QB4
5. Michael Penix Jr. (Atl)
Penix showed some serious flashes in his three starts at the end of last season. His arm strength was exceptional, and his deep ball accuracy was solidly above average. His confidence ripping the ball in rhythm or off-play action was impressive, and he had some good moments processing coverages.
However, the biggest concern I have is his accuracy. In his first start against the Giants, Penix was rarely put in tough spots because of play design and a weaker New York defense, and completed 66.7% of his passes. He then dropped to 54.3% and 55.3% in the next two games. There were multiple drops and plays on which the receiver fell down or got hung up by a defender, but there were more than a few throws that weren’t even close to the intended target. Penix’s natural tools are exciting, but a 58.1 completion percentage will not get the job done.
The Falcons’ offense still has a lot of quality pieces for Penix to work with. Bijan Robinson and Drake London should be Penix’s best friends as he establishes himself this season, and the offensive line is set for another solid year. I’m a bit lower on the group after replacing Drew Dalman with Ryan Neuzil, but this is an experienced unit that only allowed four sacks in Penix’s three starts in 2024.
If he can’t improve his accuracy, Penix is in for a long season. But with regular development, he should have a productive year in Zac Robinson’s offense if he's kept in structure and has time to operate. He threw for 737 yards in his three starts, 775 overall, and, combined with Kirk Cousins, Atlanta totaled over 4,200 passing yards.
He likely won’t hit that number alone, but the offense is built on the run game and play action. That sets up well for Penix. Given the accuracy issues, I can’t put him higher than No. 5, and I wouldn’t pick him as your starter, but he can be a worthy backup who should hit 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns if he plays the entire season.
Ryan Heath’s Fantasy Takeaway
Perhaps he has some latent rushing upside we’re underrating, but Penix pretty comfortably ranks last among this group for me in fantasy football. I’m more interested in whether the Falcons will increase their use of play action and dropbacks under center in 2025; Cousins’ play action pass rate (16.5%) was dead last among qualifying QBs because he couldn’t move well enough to play under center effectively. These are efficiency cheat codes that the rest of the McShanahan coaching tree uses to maximize the production of their RBs, WRs, and TEs.
If Penix can unlock this part of the playbook, it could be massive for Bijan,London, and Darnell Mooney (who averaged +49% more FP/RR on play action in 2024).
Ryan’s fantasy ranking among sophomore QBs: QB6
4. Drake Maye (NE)
I was low on Maye heading into last season. I thought he was skittish in the pocket at North Carolina, relied on his legs too much, and I wasn’t a fan of how his accuracy declined over his three-year college career. His first start against Houston had flashes, but Maye’s happy feet and lack of trust in his offensive line were obvious.
It didn’t take long for him to gain confidence in the pocket and turn in a commendable rookie season, throwing for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while adding 421 yards and two rushing scores. There was noticeable improvement in his processing and decision-making later in the season, and his legs are a legit weapon that should be featured in New England’s offense in 2025.
The Patriots made clear investments in Maye this offseason by revamping the offensive line and giving Stefon Diggs a big contract. Adding Will Campbell and Garrett Bradbury gives me hope that Maye will calm down in the pocket, and Diggs is (was?) a proven separator who can be a quarterback’s best friend.
Entering Year Two, I’m higher on Maye and what New England has done offensively. He’s in the middle of the list at No. 4 because he’s not good enough to overcome a weak roster yet, but he’s trending in the right direction. I won’t be starting him in any of my leagues, but I wouldn’t blame people for making him their QB1.
New England was just short of 3,000 passing yards in 2024. Maye will beat that number, but given the rest of the offense, he won't push 4,000.
Ryan Heath’s Fantasy Takeaway
Maye will be among my most-drafted QBs in 2025. His 35.2 scramble YPG in his full games beat out Jayden Daniels last year for the 2nd-best mark in Fantasy Points Data history. Despite that, the Patriots called only 7 designed runs for him in a lost season.
Scramble yards have a 0.61 correlation coefficient to designed rush attempts in the following year; in other words, very productive scramblers like Maye generally also see a lot of designed work on the ground in the following season. This should translate to a lot more fantasy points.
And remember, Maye was already a back-end QB1 (18.7 FPG) in his full games last year despite virtually zero designed runs. He’s the perfect late-round QB.
Ryan’s fantasy ranking among sophomore QBs: QB3
3. Caleb Williams (Chi)
Williams had a rough rookie year. The Bears were a mess organizationally (shocker), and he was stuck with a poorly designed offense. I’m not taking all the blame for the team’s 5-12 record off of him, but it would be hard for any quarterback to be productive with the uncreative offense Chicago was running last year.
The early-season film was tough to watch, as many of the play calls involved either everyone going deep or everyone running a hitch. Defenses were rarely out of position, and Williams routinely had to throw into tight windows. There was limited play action, and he could never get into a rhythm.
Despite the poor offense, Williams did improve later in the season. To his credit, he consistently tried to maintain sound mechanics in the pocket and gained more confidence throwing between the numbers. There were noticeable dumb rookie mistakes or poorly thrown balls throughout the season, but his creativity outside the pocket was impressive.
Williams finished with 3,541 yards, 20 touchdowns, and six interceptions while completing 62.5% of his passes. Ben Johnson’s arrival should ignite the former first overall pick and the entire Bears organization. Williams has set lofty goals for himself, including 4,000 yards and a completion percentage over 70%. Jared Goff’s completion percentage improved each year under Johnson, and he threw for at least 4,400 yards each campaign.
I’m a huge fan of Chicago's offensive line improvements this offseason, so that should provide Williams with much-needed stability up front. I’m confident he’ll become Chicago’s first 4,000-yard passer this year. I’m obviously not sold on the 70% benchmark, but this should be the beginning of a long-term QB-head coach relationship.
Ryan Heath’s Fantasy Takeaway
Williams seems to me a much higher-risk version of Bo Nix.
He had the second-worst pressure-to-sack ratio in Fantasy Points Data history as a rookie while averaging just 0.39 fantasy points per dropback (6th-worst). Perhaps Johnson will get his play more “on rails” (with more play action, under-center snaps, etc.), but I’m worried that will also lead to less scrambling and fantasy production on the ground. Williams averaged just 2.3 FPG on scrambles — less than Nix, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, and others — despite the 2nd-most dropbacks in the NFL (680).
I’d rather just make the slightly more expensive version of this bet on a player who had a better rookie season and more offensive stability (Nix), or the less expensive version of the bet on a player with more rushing upside (Maye).
Ryan’s fantasy ranking among sophomore QBs: QB5
2. Bo Nix (Den)
Other than Williams, Nix was the rookie quarterback with the highest amount of pressure heading into the 2024 season. Sean Payton hand-picked Nix to turn Denver around, and after a rough start, it worked out.
Nix had an element of chaos to his game all season, but the comfort level he had later on was noticeably better. He made things happen when plays broke down and pushed Jayden Daniels for OROY after throwing for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
He thrives on deep balls, middle-of-the-field digs, and comebacks off-play action. While the offense isn’t totally tailored to that, Nix has the improvisational skills to keep plays alive. I like how he uses his legs, but he has to play within structure more this season. In rhythm, Nix was effective, and you saw his arm strength and flashes of how accurate he can be.
However, like Maye and Penix, my biggest concern is his accuracy. Nix finished with a completion percentage of 66.3%. That number isn’t terrible, but it includes some duds (Steelers, Jets, Browns), and a common theme was overthrows. That said, I’m confident in the flashes Nix showed throughout the year.
Denver’s defensive focus this offseason tells me that Payton is confident Nix is ready to take the reins. I don’t think he will surpass 4,000 yards against Denver’s schedule, but 3,500 yards and 23 touchdowns are achievable.
Ryan Heath’s Fantasy Takeaway
Outside of the McShanahan coaching tree, Payton’s system has proven the most consistently friendly for creating QB fantasy production in the NFL, with all his signal-callers since 2018 averaging at least 17.0 FPG. Nix played through a fractured back at the end of the season that likely cost him an additional ~1.8 designed rushing FPG.
With new weapons in Evan Engram and RJ Harvey — which he sorely lacked in 2024, with no Broncos WR aside from Courtland Sutton being good enough to run a 75% route share in any single game all last season — I’d be unsurprised to see Nix challenge for top-6 fantasy QB status in Year 2.
Ryan’s fantasy ranking among sophomore QBs: QB2
1. Jayden Daniels (Was)
Daniels easily takes the No. 1 spot with how many good things he put on film last year: 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 891 rushing yards, and six rushing scores. He quickly proved that he was more than just an athletic rookie QB who would rely on his legs and struggle as a passer (Bengals game). Will he be able to duplicate or improve on last season? I say, yes.
As a passer, Daniels was a consistent producer in 2024, but his film showed a clear man/zone split. Against man coverage, he was more confident attacking between the hash marks or stretching the field down the sideline. Against zone, he was a beat more hesitant to let it rip, and wasn’t as good at fitting balls into tight windows. This correlated with zone blitzes that his offensive line couldn’t pick up, but I didn’t see the same confidence going through his progressions. I’m expecting him to grow in this area in year two.
That said, Daniels is a quality passer who completed 69% of his passes and didn’t back down from pressure. I’d like to see better deep ball consistency, but with an improved offensive line, Daniels should put up big passing numbers again.
His running ability is what makes him the clear No. 1 sophomore quarterback. Daniels didn’t run just to do it last year. He was calculated and smart with how he attacked defenses with his legs. Until opponents figure out how to stop him (Steelers game, maybe), I expect Daniels to continue frustrating defenses with how hard he is to bring down.
Washington has a tough schedule this year, but Daniels proved he can handle the bright lights. He’ll push for 4,000 yards this year, but I won’t be shocked if his rushing yardage total dips while his touchdown number improves. 600 yards and eight touchdowns sound right.
An injury is the only thing keeping Daniels from having another solid season. I’d still draft the established, big-name veterans before him, but Daniels should be your season-long starter.
Ryan Heath’s Fantasy Takeaway
Daniels is my preferred early-round QB in 2025, as I lay out in Anatomy of a League Winner. He was knocked out of his Week 7 game early with a rib injury, team trainers had to glue shut an open wound on his throwing hand during Week 11, and he played only half the snaps in Week 18 with a playoff spot already locked up. Removing these contests, Daniels averaged an astounding 24.4 FPG in his fully healthy games, the most by a rookie QB in NFL history, or the 9th-most by any QB over the past decade. Now the Commanders have upgraded the offensive line and provided him with an additional weapon in Deebo Samuel, who appears designed in a lab to put up YAC in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.
Ryan’s fantasy ranking among sophomore QBs: QB1
