The 2025 NFL season is coming into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2025 NFL Passing Touchdowns Props, and it’s time to dive into the 2025 NFL Most Passing Touchdowns Odds for the top quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford and a few additional wagers I considered.
Joe Burrow led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns last season, which cashed the fourth-shortest odds at +1100. He bested Baker Mayfield (41, +4000) and Lamar Jackson (41, +3000) for the passing TD crown. Burrow is the +550 favorite to repeat as the league leader in passing touchdowns entering his age-29 campaign. He’s followed by Mayfield (+950), Jackson (+1100), Patrick Mahomes (+1300), and Jared Goff (+1500) at 15/1 odds or shorter.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
Passing Touchdown Leaders from the Last Decade
| Year | Quarterback | Age | Record | Passing TDs | Odds (rank) |
| 2024 | Joe Burrow (Cin) | 28 | 9-8 | 43 | +1100 (4th) |
| 2023 | Dak Prescott (Dal) | 30 | 12-5 | 36 | +2000 (9th) |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 26 | 14-3 | 41 | +800 (5th) |
| 2021 | Tom Brady (TB) | 44 | 13-4 | 43 | +500 (2nd) |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers (GB) | 36 | 13-3 | 48 | +2000 (11th) |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 22 | 14-2 | 36 | +22500 (34th) |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 22 | 12-4 | 50 | +3100 (16th) |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson (Sea) | 28 | 9-7 | 34 | +3300 (11th) |
| 2016 | Aaron Rodgers (GB) | 32 | 10-6 | 40 | N/A |
| 2015 | Tom Brady (NE) | 38 | 12-4 | 36 | N/A |
Historical Hints
We have odds in this category from the last eight seasons, and this has been a market to bet on players with longer odds. Quarterbacks with +2000 odds or longer threw for the most TDs in 2017-20 before Tom Brady (+500) and Patrick Mahomes (+800) won as top-five favorites in 2021-22. A long-shot winner returned in 2023 with Dak Prescott (+2000) cruising to a league-best 36 scores before Joe Burrow (+1100) won with the fourth-shortest odds in 2024. Lamar Jackson (+225000) had the 34th-longest odds in 2019, which means he had longer odds than some backup QBs.
It’s been a must for the league leader in passing TDs to quarterback a team with a winning record over the last decade. Burrow and Russell Wilson (+3300) are the only QBs in the last 10 years to lead teams that finished below 10 victories. The league leader in passing TDs hit 12+ wins in six straight seasons before 2024. The league leader in passing touchdowns has hit 36+ scores in nine of the last 10 seasons, which equates to a little more than 2.1 touchdown passes per game. There have been no real trends in terms of the age of the passing touchdown leader. Mahomes (2018) and Jackson (2019) each led the league at 22 years old, while Brady (2021) doubled them up by doing it at age 44.
2025 NFL Most Passing Touchdowns Odds
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points passing touchdowns projection. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Passing TDs to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), Bet365 (365), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) as of July 7.
| Quarterback | FP Projection | Longest Odds | Shortest Odds |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | 33.0 | +550 (DK) | +475 (ESPN) |
| Dak Prescott (Dal) | 26.9 | +1600 (multiple) | +1500 (DK) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 26.4 | +950 (DK) | +850 (FD) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 26.1 | +2000 (DK/365) | +1800 (ESPN) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 25.2 | +1300 (FD) | +1200 (multiple) |
| Aaron Rodgers (Pit) | 25.0 | +3000 (DK/ESPN) | +2500 (365) |
| J.J. McCarthy (Min) | 24.5 | +2200 (multiple) | +2000 (365) |
| Jared Goff (Det) | 24.5 | +1500 (FD) | +1000 (DK/365) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 24.5 | +2800 (DK) | +1700 (FD) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 24.4 | +1600 (FD) | +1400 (multiple) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 24.2 | +2800 (365) | +2200 (FD/ESPN) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | 23.0 | +2500 (multiple) | +2200 (FD) |
| Bo Nix (Den) | 23.0 | +2200 (DK/365) | +2000 (ESPN) |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | 22.9 | +3000 (DK) | +2200 (FD/ESPN) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 22.3 | +1100 (FD) | +1000 (multiple) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 22.1 | +2800 (DK) | +2200 (365) |
| Caleb Williams (Chi) | 21.8 | +2800 (365) | +2400 (FD) |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | 21.6 | +4500 (DK/365) | +3000 (ESPN) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 21.2 | +3500 (DK) | +3000 (ESPN) |
| C.J. Stroud (Hou) | 20.9 | +4000 (365) | +3000 (DK/ESPN) |
| Michael Penix (Atl) | 20.8 | +6000 (365) | +4000 (DK) |
| Bryce Young (Car) | 20.7 | +7500 (365) | +6000 (FD/ESPN) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 20.3 | +8000 (DK) | +3500 (365) |
| Sam Darnold (Sea) | 20.3 | +5000 (365) | +3500 (ESPN) |
| Geno Smith (LV) | 20.1 | +4500 (365) | +3200 (FD) |
| Cameron Ward (Ten) | 20.1 | +7000 (FD) | +5000 (multiple) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 19.5 | +5000 (DK/365) | +4000 (ESPN) |
| Justin Fields (NYJ) | 13.9 | +10000 (multiple) | +10000 (multiple) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Dak Prescott (Dal) most regular season passing touchdowns (+1600, FanDuel)
Risk .5 units to win 8 units. Placed July 7.
Prescott already owns a passing touchdown crown from 2023 when he threw for 36 scores, and he’s reached 30+ TD passes in each of his last three healthy campaigns since 2019. He owns a career 5.1% TD rate and was at 6.1% in 45 games from 2021-23 before last season’s struggles. His TD rate dipped to 3.8% before his season-ending hamstring injury, but he was down to a 31-year-old Brandin Cooks as his #2 WR. The Cowboys added George Pickens to play alongside CeeDee Lamb, who will create a handful of touchdowns out of thin air because of his ability to score from anywhere on the field.
The Cowboys have arguably the NFL’s worst backfield, led by Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. They finished 11th in pass rate over expectation (1.1%) from inside the 5-yard line last season with a similarly weak backfield, despite Cooper Rush leading the team in passing attempts. Dallas’ defense also took a significant step back last season, allowing the second-most PPG (27.5) and the fifth-most YPG (355.2). Prescott could find himself in more potential shootouts even if Dallas’ defense improves from last year’s debacle. It doesn’t hurt that Prescott will play 10 indoor games, where he owns a career 5.3% TD rate compared to a career 4.8% TD rate in outdoor contests. Dak has had recent issues staying healthy, but he’s shown
Matthew Stafford (LAR) most regular season passing touchdowns (+2800, DraftKings)
Risk .25 units to win 7 units. Placed July 7.
Stafford has thrown 41 TDs on two separate occasions, including in his first season with the Rams in 2021, but he’s yet to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns entering his age-37 season. It’s far from unprecedented for an older QB to lead the league in passing touchdowns. Tom Brady in 2015 and 2021 and Aaron Rodgers in 2020 have each done it at 36 years old or older in the last decade. Stafford got off to a painful start last season, throwing for just 3 TDs on 198 attempts (1.5%) in the first six games. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp combined for just 83 routes in that span. Once Nacua and Kupp returned to the lineup in Week 8, Stafford threw for 21 TDs on 390 attempts (5.4%) in his final 12 games (postseason included).
The Rams upgraded the #2 WR spot by swapping out a deteriorating Kupp for Davante Adams, who has scored 8+ receiving TDs in eight of his last nine seasons. We graded Adams as the significantly better separator over Kupp from Week 12 through the end of the season. It doesn’t hurt that Stafford will play 11 indoor games, where he owns a career 4.8% TD rate compared to a career 4.3% TD rate in outdoor contests. My main concern with wagering on Stafford to lead the NFL in passing TDs is that Sean McVay will continue to lean on Kyren Williams near the goal line. Williams scored 26 rushing TDs in 27 games in 2023-24, and the Rams ranked 26th in pass rate over expectation (-9.8%) from inside the 5-yard line. Williams’ efficiency near the goal line will need to dry up some, and the addition of Adams will need to push McVay to go more pass-heavy inside the 5-yard line.
Brolley’s Leans
Joe Burrow (Cin) most regular season passing touchdowns (+550, DraftKings)
I wrote up Burrow as a deserving favorite to lead the league in passing yards, and our projections also have Burrow as the clear favorite to finish with the most passing touchdowns. He’s the only quarterback we projected for 27+ TDs, and we have him throwing 6.1 TDs more than the second-closest QB, Dak Prescott. Burrow will have to go through one of the toughest QB schedules playing in the AFC North, but he beat out Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield by two scores with 43 TDs against a tougher slate last season. It helped that Burrow constantly found himself in shootouts playing with a Bengals defense that allowed the eighth-most PPG (25.5) and the eighth-most YPG (348.3).
Cincinnati’s defense could be among the league’s worst units once again, especially if Trey Hendrickson’s contract dispute lingers closer to the season. The Bengals ranked second in pass rate over expectation from inside the 5-yard line at 22.9%, and Burrow’s 71 passes from inside the 10-yard line were 22 more than the next closest QB, Patrick Mahomes. The Bengals kept Burrow’s weapons intact by signing Tee Higgins and Mike Gesicki to be the top option behind the reigning triple crown winner, Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow cashed +1100 odds as the fourth-favorite to lead the league in touchdowns in 2024, and he’ll try to become the first QB to do it in back-to-back seasons since Drew Brees in 2011-12.
Patrick Mahomes (KC) most regular season passing touchdowns (+1300, FanDuel)
If you’re looking to buy the dip on Mahomes, this is the summer to do it in fantasy drafts and in the betting markets. He’s down to a seventh-round pick in Underdog drafts, and he’s facing his longest odds to lead the league in passing TDs since he threw for 50 scores at +3100 odds in his first season as a starter in 2018. Mahomes is coming off a career-low 1.63 TD passes per game, and he matched a career-low 26 TDs from 2019 when he played in 14 games. He faced plenty of adversity when he accidentally ended Rashee Rice’s season early. He also played without Hollywood Brown for much of the season, which left rookie Xavier Worthy as his #1 WR.
Mahomes will need to start attacking downfield like he did at the beginning of his career if he’s to lead the league in passing TDs. His aDOT has sat at only 6.7 yards in each of the last two seasons, but he could be more aggressive with a receiving corps back to full strength. Rice and Hollywood’s presence should also help an older Travis Kelce. Kelce owned a TD rate of 6.2% in his first six seasons with Mahomes at quarterback before dipping to 2.3% last season. Mahomes still finished second to Joe Burrow in attempts from inside the 10-yard line with 49, and the Chiefs ranked 10th in pass rate over expectation from inside the 5-yard line at 2.6%. Mahomes led the league in passing TDs twice (2018 and 2022) and has hit 37+ TDs four times, and his current odds could look like a gift once the season starts.
Jordan Love (GB) most regular season passing touchdowns (+2000, DraftKings)
Matt LaFleur’s offenses own the highest TD rate (6.3%) and the second-most TD passes (174) over the last five seasons. Love was in the mix to lead the league in passing TDs in his first season as a starter in 2023, falling 4 TDs short of Dak Prescott’s league-leading total of 36. His total dipped to 25 TDs last season, but his TD rate actually rose from 5.5% to 5.9%. Love sprained his MCL at the end of the season opener before injuring his groin in Week 8, which caused him to miss two games and to play at less than 100% in other contests.
The Packers finished with a positive pass rate over expectation in each of Love’s first five starts before injuring his groin, and they ranked sixth overall in PROE (3.6%) during those five games (Weeks 1 and 4-7). Green Bay leaned into Josh Jacobs as soon as Love injured his groin in Week 8. The Packers finished with a positive PROE just twice in their final 10 games, and they ranked 29th in PROE (-5.9%) in Weeks 8-18. The Packers should move back to a more balanced attack after spending a first-round pick on a wide receiver for the first time in 23 years. Love could find himself in the TD title race if Jacobs takes a step back and if one of Green Bay’s young receivers emerges as a legit #1 threat.
