The 2025 NFL season is slowly starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most national sportsbooks have posted 2025 NFL Passing Touchdowns Props for the league’s top quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted the best bet I already made on a Bryce Young prop and a couple of additional wagers I strongly considered placing.
Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Touchdown Props.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
2025 NFL Passing Touchdowns Props
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points touchdowns projection. You should target the Lowest Touchdown totals for over wagers and the Highest Touchdown totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), ESPN Bet (ESPN), and Bet365 (365) to find the best touchdown totals for each quarterback as of May 23.
| Player | FP Projection | Highest TD (under) | Lowest TD (over) |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | 33.0 | 33.5 (-105, DK) | 32.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Dak Prescott (Dal) | 26.6 | 26.5 (-110, DK) | 23.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 26.4 | 29.5 (-130, 365) | 26.5 (-125, ESPN) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 25.4 | 25.5 (-110, DK) | 23.5 (-110, ESPN) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 25.2 | 27.5 (-105, MGM) | 26.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 24.7 | 24.5 (-110, MGM) | 23.5 (-110, DK) |
| Jared Goff (Det) | 24.6 | 28.5 (-110, DK) | 26.5 (-125, ESPN) |
| J.J. McCarthy (Min) | 24.5 | 25.5 (-110, MGM) | 24.5 (-110, DK) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 24.5 | 24.5 (-110, DK) | 23.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 24.4 | 27.5 (-115, DK) | 26.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | 23.0 | 23.5 (-110, DK) | 22.5 (-110, CZR) |
| Bo Nix (Den) | 23.0 | 24.5 (-110, MGM) | 22.5 (-125, ESPN) |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | 22.9 | 21.5 (-110, DK) | 20.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 22.3 | 28.5 (-110, 365) | 26.5 (-120, MGM) |
| Caleb Williams (Chi) | 22.3 | 23.5 (-130, DK) | 21.5 (-130, ESPN) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 21.2 | 22.5 (-110, DK) | 21.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 20.9 | 24.5 (-120, MGM) | 23.5 (-115, DK) |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | 20.9 | 20.5 (-110, DK) | 19.5 (-125, ESPN) |
| C.J. Stroud (Hou) | 20.9 | 21.5 (-110, DK) | 20.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Geno Smith (LV) | 20.9 | 20.5 (-120, DK) | 18.5 (-125, ESPN) |
| Bryce Young (Car) | 20.7 | 17.5 (-105, 365) | 16.5 (-110, ESPN) |
| Sam Darnold (Sea) | 20.3 | 21.5 (-145, CZR) | 19.5 (-115, 365) |
| Cameron Ward (Ten) | 20.1 | 19.5 (-130, 365) | 17.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 19.9 | 19.5 (-105, DK) | 19.5 (-105, ESPN) |
| Michael Penix (Atl) | 19.7 | 18.5 (-110, 365) | 18.5 (-110, 365) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 18.7 | 19.5 (+110, MGM) | 19.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Justin Fields (NYJ) | 13.7 | 14.5 (-120, DK) | 12.5 (-120, ESPN) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Bryce Young (Car) over 16.5 regular season passing TDs (-110, ESPNBet)
Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 23.
Young and the Panthers got off to a rough start in Dave Canales’ first season as head coach, but the offense trended up in the back half of 2024. He threw for TDs in 10 straight games once he was inserted back into the starting lineup in Week 8, tossing 15 total TDs with a 4.7% TD rate during that span. He previously threw for TDs in 8 of his first 18 NFL starts, tossing just 11 TDs with a 1.9% TD rate to begin his career. Young has a chance to maintain or improve his 4.7% TD rate from the end of last season after the Panthers selected Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall. He scored 18 TDs in his final 25 games at Arizona, and he could become Canales’ new Mike Evans near the end zone at 6’4”, 219 pounds. We have Young projected for 20.7 passing TDs, which is one of the biggest discrepancies on the board compared to his touchdown prop. I’m betting on Young continuing his late-season momentum into 2025.
Brolley’s Leans
Lamar Jackson (Bal) under 28.5 passing touchdowns (-110, Bet365)
Lamar nearly won his second straight MVP last season and his third MVP overall, narrowly losing out to Josh Allen in a tight vote. Jackson exploded for 41 passing TDs last season after finishing with 26 or fewer passing TDs in four straight seasons from 2020 to 2023. He led the league with an 8.6% TD rate in 2024 after sitting at 5.4% in 55 games in 2000-23. Jackson is also coming off a career high 474 attempts, with Baltimore’s defense taking a step back in the first half of the season. Jackson is likely to experience some touchdown regression after the Ravens finished third in PPG at 30.5 in Derrick Henry’s first season in Baltimore. We have Jackson projected for 22.3 passing TDs, which is the biggest discrepancy on the board compared to his prop.
Brock Purdy under 24.5 passing touchdowns (-120, BetMGM)
Purdy and the 49ers agreed to terms on a five-year, $265 million contract in May, which means he’s tied with Jared Goff for the seventh-highest average annual value at $53 million. San Francisco still rewarded Purdy with a massive contract despite his down season in the 49ers’ frustrating six-win campaign. Purdy owned a staggering 7.2% TD rate and 44 TD passes in his first 21 career starts before crashing back to earth with a 4.4% TD rate and 20 TDs in 15 starts last season. Purdy will have more heavy lifting to do for San Francisco’s offense now that he’s the highest-paid player. San Francisco traded Deebo Samuel to Washington, and Brandon Aiyuk could miss the first month or two of the season as he recovers from ACL and MCL tears. Christian McCaffrey will also be back in the mix to vulture some potential scores away from Purdy’s total. We project Purdy to finish below his passing TD total with 20.9 scores.
Dak Prescott (Dal) over 23.5 passing touchdowns (-110, BetMGM)
We have Prescott projected for the second-most passing TDs at 26.6, but his prop total checks in at 23.5 touchdowns. He’s coming off a career-low 3.8% TD rate, with just 11 touchdown passes in eight games before his season-ending hamstring injury. Prescott owned a 5.2% TD rate in his first eight seasons before last year’s disappointing campaign. The Cowboys have signaled they’ll take a pass-heavy approach under new HC Brian Schottenheimer. They failed to make any significant moves at running back for the second straight off-season, and they moved a 2026 third-round pick to acquire big-play threat George Pickens. Prescott’s durability is the one angle that’s keeping me from betting this prop. He’s played in 12 or fewer games in three of his last five seasons, but he threw for 36 and 37 TDs in each of his two healthy campaigns in that range.
Cameron Ward (Ten) over 17.5 passing touchdowns (-115, Caesars)
The Titans made Ward the first player selected in the 2025 draft after he threw for an FBS-best 39 touchdowns with an 8.6% TD rate in his only season at Miami. He’ll immediately take over as Tennessee’s starting quarterback, working with a limited receiving corps led by Calvin Ridley. Will Levis and Mason Rudolph combined for just 22 TDs last season, with the Titans ranking 27th in pass rate over expectation (-3.5%). Brian Callahan came from a Cincinnati offense that ranked second in pass rate over expectation (7.5%) in 2023, and he should call a more aggressive passing attack with Ward under center. If you’re willing to back a rookie quarterback, we see some slight value to bet Ward over his total as he’s projected for 20.1 TD passes.
