Steelers at Vikings
Bet – Over 43.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Why? – Beyond this potentially being a season-deciding game for both sides, this is a really fun game for fantasy/betting. This is the second-fastest game of Week 14 in adjusted combined pace and the third-highest volume matchup in adjusted plays per game, which makes the over/under look a bit low in my view. The Steelers are playing a lot faster and running way more plays per game because their rushing attack has devolved back into its 2020 form. Najee Harris has been fine, but their offensive line is second-from-last in generating before contact yards over the last eight weeks. As a result, the Steelers are throwing it way more than they want and rank eighth in pass plays per game (40.6) over the last two months. Meanwhile, the Vikings last five games have all been higher scoring with five-straight hitting 47 or more points and 4-of-5 going over 55 total points. It obviously hasn’t resulted in enough wins, but the Vikings are constantly finding ways to put points on the board after a mid-season lull – they’ve scored 26+ in five-straight. Predicting the Vikings has been hard all year, but this game sets up as another high scoring affair.
49ers at Bengals
Bet – Under 49.5 (-120, SuperBook) – bought half-point
Why? – While the total in this game is the third-highest on the slate (49), the pace between these two offenses leaves a lot to be desired and could slow down what looks like a fun matchup overall. 49ers-Bengals has the second-worst adjusted combined pace on the slate, which is saying something considering Week 14 is filled with a lot of mediocre matchups.
Thursday Night Football
Bet – Over 41.5 yards (-110, BetMGM / -118, SuperBook)
Why? – Full-time player with Thielen out. Ran a route on 94% of the Vikings pass plays last week – a season-high. Steelers have hemorrhaged the ninth-most YPG to WRs over the last five weeks (158.2).
Bet – Over 79.5 yards (-110, FanDuel)
Why? – Over this total in four-straight with 12.8 targets per game in this stretch. Claypool dinged up. No team has given up more YPG to WRs than the Vikings over the last five weeks (190.8).
Bet – Anytime TD (+240, SuperBook / +230, PointsBet)
Why? – Has 5 TDs in his last 7 games while leading the team in end-zone targets (6) in this stretch. Vikings gave up a TD to Josiah Deguara three weeks ago and allowed two TDs to Lions TEs last week.
Bet – Under 20.5 receiving yards (-125, PointsBet)
Why? – No clue what’s up with this number.
Sunday / Monday Games
Bet – Over 30.5 rushing yards (-115, DK / -115, BetMGM / -118, SuperBook / -120, FOXBet / -125, SuperBook)
Why? – Snagged this on every book I’m registered for. This line should easily be 35+. After firing Joe Brady, HC Matt Rhule once again reiterated that he wants to run the ball way more and I absolutely think that Cam is going to be a huge part of that. Cam ran it 10 times for 46 yards and a score back in his first start of the year in Week 11, but the Panthers got away from that the following week as Cam ran for just 5 yards. Every single mobile QB that Atlanta has faced has gone over this total – Jalen Hurts (7/62), Daniel Jones (8/39), Taylor Heinicke (5/43), Sam Darnold (8/66), and Trevor Lawrence (5/39).
I also grabbed Cam Rushing TD on SuperBook at +180 odds. Their odds are a bit inflated there since this is technically an Anytime TD bet… most books have Cam Anytime TD at +130 to +150 and I like that juice, too.
Bet – Under 15.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet / -115, FOXBet)
Why? – This is in the 12.5-13.5 range in other books. Bet Panthers go run-heavy here. Abdullah ran 11 routes to Hubbard’s 4 and out-snapped him (67% to 46%) after CMC went down in Week 12.
Bet – Under 50.5 yards (-115, FOXBet)
Why? – Under this total in 7-of-12 games, including three-straight. Panthers giving up the fourth-fewest YPG to WRs. We have Pitts projected for 39 yards.
Bet – Under 25.5 yards (-125, PointsBet / -128, FOXBet)
Why? – Under this total in 5-of-6 with Ridley out. Panthers giving up the fourth-fewest YPG to WRs.
Bet – Over 11.5 carries (-130, SuperBook / -135, BetMGM)
Why? – Over this total in four of his last 5 games. Coming off season-high 69% of the snaps. We have Freeman projected for 15 carries.
Bet – Over 30.5 receiving yards (-128, FOXBet / -131, PointsBet)
Why? – Njoku and Bryant both out – Hooper is the last man standing. Ravens giving up the second-most YPG to TEs (67.5).
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (-104, SuperBook / -105, BetMGM / -110, DK)
Why? – Over this total in 6 of his last 7 games with 10.1 targets per game in this span. Had 8 catches vs. Browns in Week 12.
Bet – Over 63.5 receiving yards
Why? – Has been over this total in three-straight. Metcalf (foot/illness) missed two practices this week. We have Lockett projected for 71 yards.
Bet – Under 32.5 receiving yards (-115, SuperBook / -115, BetMGM / -115, DK)
Why? – Under this total in four of his last 5, Chiefs are giving up the fourth-fewest YPG (56.8) to perimeter WRs.
Bet – Under 230.5 passing yards (-121, PointsBet)
Why? – Under this total in 5 of 7 full starts, both of his two good WRs hurt (Davis and Moore), we have Wilson projected for 220 yards.
Bet – Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115, DK / -118, FOXBet / -114, FD / -121, PointsBet)
Why? – All in. Full practice all week – so he’s back. Ingram out, Montgomery out (both with COVID). Jets have given up a league-high 139 YPG on the ground to RBs over the last five weeks. We have AK projected for 78 yards.
Bet – Over 60.5 yards (-125, PointsBet / -125, FOXBet)
Why? – Light total for a player with McLaurin’s upside. Cowboys giving up the fourth-most YPG to WRs (175.8) over the last five weeks – including six individual WRs with 60+ yards. We have McLaurin projected for 75 yards.
Bet – Over 36.5 pass attempts (-114, FanDuel / -115, PointsBet)
Why? – Pollard out. Zeke playing hurt. Over this total in 5 of his last 6. I think we’ll see a very pass-heavy plan from Dallas against Washington front-seven giving up just 3.64 YPC (fifth-fewest) and 55.1 YPG (fewest) to RBs over the last eight weeks.
Bet – Under 30.5 (-131, PointsBet)
Why? – Under this total in four of his last 5 games with just 2.8 targets per game in this span. Snaps were cut to a season-low 49% last week.
Bet – Under 44.5 yards (-115, DK / -115, BetMGM)
Why? – Under this total in five of his last 6 games while averaging 2.5 receptions / 28 yards on 4.7 targets per game in this stretch. Bucs’ secondary is much healthier now.
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (-115, DK / -115, PointsBet)
Why? – Bucs giving up eighth-most receptions per game to slot WRs (7.9) and will struggle to run the ball again – just like they have all season.
Bet – Under 27.5 completions (-105, DK / -115, PointsBet)
Why? – Bills allowing a league-low 57.8% completion rate. Only one QB has completed 24 or more passes against Buffalo (Mahomes – 33 completions) and he needed 55 attempts to get there. We have Brady projected for 23 completions.
Bet – Over 39.5 yards (-115, BetMGM / -115, DK / -118, PointsBet)
Why? – Over this total in three-straight since making his return in Week 9. Has 10 & 9 targets in the last two games. Second in the NFL in aDOT (19.4) and Bears giving up sixth-most yards per target on deep throws.
Bet – Over 10.5 receiving yards (-125, PointsBet)
Why? – Has easily cruised over this total in four-straight with 42.5 YPG in this span. We have Dillon projected for 21 yards receiving.
ROI THIS SEASON
– Game Picks -32.9% (Overall: 15-20)
– Player Props +5.8% (Overall: 152-120)
– Total ROI +2%