Week 5 MNF Trends & Picks

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Week 5 MNF Trends & Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers (1-3, 3-1 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (2-2, 2-2), 8:15 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Chargers 21.75, Saints 28.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 8 to 6.5, 52 to 50

  • Weather: Dome

  • Chargers Injuries to Watch: WR Mike Williams (hamstring), RT Bryan Bulaga (back, out), RG Trai Turner (groin, out), QB Tyrod Taylor (lung, out), DE Joey Bose (triceps)

  • Saints Injuries to Watch: WR Michael Thomas (team discipline, out), TE Jared Cook (groin), CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), LG Andrus Peat (ankle), RT Ryan Ramczyk (concussion), CB Janoris Jenkins (shoulder, out), DT Sheldon Rankins (thumb), DE Marcus Davenport (toe)

Chargers Trends

  • The Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games, and they’re 3-0-1 in their last four road games.

  • Los Angeles is 4-1 toward overs in its last five games.

  • Joe Burrow became the first rookie QB to throw for 300+ yards in three straight games last week, and Justin Herbert very nearly joined him in the club. The former Oregon QB just missed his third consecutive 300-yard game by 10 yards against the Buccaneers last week, but he did throw for multiple TDs for the first time in his career while averaging 11.6 YPA. Herbert is now averaging 310.3 passing yards per game and 15.7 rushing yards per game. The Saints have allowed 22+ FP to four straight QBs to start the season.

  • Keenan Allen has seen a 39% target share since Herbert has taken over as the starter, and he’s posted 7+ catches in every game. The Saints have allowed a single WR TD in every game this season.

  • Mike Williams will try to return this week off of his hamstring injury. With Williams sitting out last week, Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson each scored a pair of long TDs from Herbert, who was showing off his big arm last week. Kenny Golladay posted 4/62/1 receiving last week in this matchup, but the Saints could get Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins back this week.

  • Hunter Henry managed just 2/39 receiving after registering at least seven targets and five catches in each of his first three games. The Saints have been generous to the position this season, allowing a TD and double-digit FP to a TE in every game.

  • Joshua Kelley saw 30 snaps and Justin Jackson had 21 snaps with Austin Ekeler (hamstring, IR) leaving early last week. Kelley has lost a fumble in each of his last two games, which is something to keep an eye on. The Chargers have allowed five RB TDs in the last three weeks but they’re limiting backs to 3.6 YPC and just 31.3 receiving yards per game.

Saints Trends

  • The Saints, the Bills, and the Raiders are 4-0 toward overs.

  • New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last eight Monday games.

  • The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

  • The Saints are riding a 13-game winning streak in the month of October.

  • New Orleans’ games have gone over the total by an average of 11.6 points

  • Drew Brees attempted nine passes longer than 15+ yards last week, completing six of them, including one for a touchdown. He’s thrown for multiple TDs in three of his first four games but he’s reached 300+ yards just once so far. Another old man, Tom Brady, threw for 369 yards and five touchdowns against the Chargers last week.

  • Brees is looking to have his full cast of receivers for the first time since Week 1 with Michael Thomas (ankle) and Jared Cook (groin) looking to get back in the lineup. However, Thomas punched teammate Chauncey Gardner-Johnson during a recent and the team decided to suspended for their Week 5 matchup with the Chargers.

  • If Cook is able to go, the Chargers just allowed two TDs to Buccaneers TEs last week, and they’ve allowed three scores to the position overall. Cook has just 4/34/1 receiving in his last two games in Weeks 2-3 after handing 5/80 in the season opener.

  • Tre’Quan Smith and Emmanuel Sanders get boosts this week with Thomas out of the lineup. Smith has posted 4+ catches in every game that Thomas has missed, including two TDs last week. Sanders has finally come to life the last two weeks with 15+ FP against the Packers and the Lions.

  • Alvin Kamara is clearly healthy again as he’s topped 115+ scrimmage yards in three straight games. He already has seven touchdowns this season, which is more TDs (6) than he scored in 14 games last season. The Charges have allowed 90+ scrimmage yards to Ronald Jones and Mike Davis in consecutive weeks.

Brolley’s Bets

New Orleans Saints -7.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Hunter Henry over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.