Week 4 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

• Kyler Murray (Ari) under 277.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Kyler Murray (Ari) under 25.5 completions (-112, DraftKings)

• Ryan Fitzpatrick (Mia) over 23.5 completions (+100, DraftKings)

• Jared Goff (LAR) under 24.5 completions (-120, DraftKings)

• Gardner Minshew (Jax) under 268.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM)

• Philip Rivers (Ind) over .5 interceptions (-110, BetMGM)

• Dalvin Cook (Min) over 78.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Myles Gaskin (Mia) over 24.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• MIke Davis (Car) under 42.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• D’Andre Swift (Det) over 2.5 receptions (+130, BetMGM)

• DeVante Parker (Mia) over 62.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Marquise Brown (Bal) over 41.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM)

• Jimmy Graham (Chi) over 27.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM)

• T.J. Hockenson (Det) over 42.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

• George Kittle (SF) over 50.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM)

• Josh Jacobs (LV) over 91.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

Early Afternoon Games

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2, 2-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 2-1), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Chargers 18, Buccaneers 25

• Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 7, 45 to 43

• Weather: 78 degrees, 50% chance of rain, 5-10 mph

• Chargers Injuries to Watch: Slot CB Chris Harris (foot, IR), QB Tyrod Taylor (lung), WR Mike Williams (hamstring), RT Bryan Bulaga (back), RG Trai Turner (groin)

• Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: WR Chris Godwin (hamstring), WR Scotty Miller (hip), RB Leonard Fournette (ankle) slot CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (groin), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee)

Chargers Trends

• After last week’s 21-16 loss, Los Angeles is 2-11 in one-score games since the start of 2019.

• The Chargers have played under the total in all three games and their contests are averaging a combined 36.3 points per game.

• Sunday’s matchup will be the first time since the merger that there’s been a 20+ year age gap between the two starting QBs — Tom Brady is 43 and Justin Herbert is 22.

• Austin Ekeler is now averaging 20.6 touches per game and 21.3 FPG in his seven games as a starter without Melvin Gordon. Ekeler saw just a 3% target share with Tyrod in Week 1 before seeing a 19% share with Herbert at QB the last two weeks. The Bucs have allowed just 2.6 YPC to RBs so far but opposing backs are averaging 8.0/70.3/.3 receiving per game.

• It looks like Justin Herbert will get another start, and he’s posted 300+ yards in each of his starts to start his career. He’ll be chasing points again this week as a touchdown underdog but the Buccaneers are allowing the fourth-fewest FPG to opposing QBs (14.62).

• Keenan Allen has seen a 37% target share and a 45% air yards share with Herbert in the last two weeks. Mike Williams (hamstring) and Tampa’s slot CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (hamstring) could each miss this week, making Allen a good bet to see double-digit targets again.

• Hunter Henry will also benefit from Williams’ potential absence. He has 5+ catches and 50+ yards in each game but he’s yet to find the end zone. Noah Fant posted 5/46 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup last week.

Buccaneers Trends

• The Buccaneers will have fans in attendance this week but the exact number isn’t known.

• The Bucs are 7-1 toward in their last eight home games.

• Tom Brady has won eight straight games against a rookie QB and he owns a 19-5 career record against rookie QBs.

• Brady is averaging a promising 36.3 pass attempts per game, and his YPA is ticked up to 6.9 and his TD rate jumped to 5.5% after Week 3. He’s looking to keep his YPA and his TD rate trending in the right direction after he averaged 6.6 YPA with an ugly 3.9% TD rate in his final year in New England. The Chargers are allowing 243.3 passing yards per game and 1.0 passing TDs per game.

• Mike Evans now has two games with two receiving yards and TD(s) sandwiched around a 7/104/1 receiving performance in Week 2. He notably ran 47% of his routes from the slot when Chris Godwin missed in Week 2, and top slot CB Chris Harris (foot) is out of the lineup.

• Justin Watson ran the most slot routes (21) with Godwin out in Week 2 while Scotty Miller ran eight routes inside. Miller had just 2/11 receiving in Week 2 with Evans going off while posting 5/73 and 3/83 during Evans’ two quiet games.

• HC Bruce Arians has been a professional troll to fantasy owners this season. The latest example came in Week 3 with Arians and Rob Gronkowski talking about how they signed him to be a blocking TE. Gronk, of course, went out and posted 6/48 receiving against the Broncos last week, and his only missed target came on an end-zone pass. Gronk isn’t the easiest player to trust after he recorded just four targets in the first two games, but he should be featured more going forward with Godwin out and now that Gronk has his playing legs underneath him.

• Ronald Jones went back to leading this backfield over Leonard Fournette in snap share (51% to 37%) and in opportunities (17 to 9) in Week 3 as neither back reached even 10+ FP against the Broncos. LeSean McCoy is also still around stealing passing game work so this backfield is completely splintered at the moment.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Chargers +7 (Best Bet)

Indianapolis Colts (2-1, 2-1 ATS) at Chicago Bears (3-0, 2-1), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Colts 23, Bear 20.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 44.5 to 43.5
• Weather: 53 degrees, overcast, 10-15 mph
• Colts Injuries to Watch: TE Trey Burton (calf), WR Michael Pittman (calf, IR)
• Bears Injuries to Watch: RB Tarik Cohen (ACL, IR), OLB Khalil Mack (knee)

Colts Trends

• The Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games
• Indy is 6-1 toward overs in its last seven games as a road favorite.
• Philip Rivers might actually need to throw the ball some this week in a game projected to be less than a field-goal contest. He’s attempted just 46 passes over the last two weeks in blowout victories while the Bears have yet to allow multiple TD passes this season.
• Jonathan Taylor saw his touches cut in half last week (28 to 14) but he still scored for the second straight game without Marlon Mack (Achilles, IR). Taylor has just 3/12 receiving the last two weeks but this week’s game script should get him a bit more involved as a receiver. The Bears have allowed a rushing TD to RBs each week.
• Nyheim Hines posted 4/40 receiving on five targets last week after OC Nick Sirianni said they needed to do a better job getting him the rock. The Bears have allowed 4.3/33.0 receiving per game without a score to RBs in the passing game.
• Hilton and Zach Pascal have each seen eight targets over the last two weeks. Hilton has yet to reach five catches, 55 yards, or the end zone in his first three games. Fantasy’s WR1 Calvin Ridley managed 16.7 FPG against the Bears last week and just one other WR has reached double-digit FP so far against Chicago.
• With Parris Campbell (knee) and Michael Pittman (leg) going down the last two weeks, Pascal has posted 5/53/1 receiving on a 16% target share in two big victories.
• The Colts could have three TEs at their disposal this week if Trey Burton is healthy enough to return off his calf injury. Mo Alie-Cox posted 3/50/1 receiving last week but he ran just seven routes compared to Jack Doyle’s 16 target-free routes.

Bears Trends

• Chicago won’t have fans in attendance this week.
• The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record.
• Chicago is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
• The Bears are 10-2 toward unders in their last 12 home games.
• Tarik Cohen’s 36.7% snap share, his 11.5% target share, and his 18.3% rush share will be available starting this week after his ACL injury last week. David Montgomery is expected to take over most of that work. The Bears are the only team without a rushing touchdown this season. Dalvin Cook is the only back to reach double-digit FP against the Colts so far — he finished 16.1 FP.
• Nick Foles took over for Mitch Trubisky last week and he promptly threw for 188/3 passing with an INT in their comeback victory over the Falcons. The Colts have allowed the fewest FPG to QBs (10.7), but they’ve faced only Minshew/Cousins/Darnold so far.
• Allen Robinson is sitting at a healthy 28% target share, and he posted a promising 4/54/1 receiving on six targets with Foles last week. The Jags WRs got the Colts for three touchdowns in Week 1, but Vikings WRs and the Jets WRs each failed to top 100 receiving yards against the Colts.
• Jimmy Graham is the TE7 through three weeks with 12.8 FPG, and his outlook for the rest of the season is looking much better with the TE-friendly Foles in charge of the Bears offense for the foreseeable future. He posted 6/60/2 receiving on 10 targets against the Falcons last week, which means Graham has already matched his three touchdowns from all of 2019. The Colts have allowed the fewest FPG to TEs through three weeks, but they haven’t exactly faced the best TEs or the best passing games through three weeks against the Jags, the Vikes, and the Jets.
• Anthony Miller has played on 46% of the snaps through three weeks, but he’s luckily scored two touchdowns

Brolley’s Bets

Chicago Bears +2.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Philip Rivers (Ind) over .5 interceptions (Best Bet)

Jimmy Graham (Chi) over 27.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Arizona Cardinals (2-1, 2-1 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (1-2, 1-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Cardinals 27.5, Panthers 24
• Spread/Total Movements: 52 to 51.5
• Weather: 65 degrees, clear, 5 mp
• Cardinals Injuries to Watch: WR DeAndre Hopkins (ankle), WR Christian Kirk (groin), S Budda Baker (thumb), S Chris Banjo (hamstring), OLB Devon Kennard (calf), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (head)
• Panthers Injuries to Watch: LT Russell Okung (groin), DE Yetur Gross-Matos (illness), S Jeremy Chinn (hip)

Cardinals Trends

• Arizona has played under the total in all three games this season.
• The Cardinals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games, but they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
• Arizona is 3-0-2 ATS in its last five road games.
• The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in the Eastern Time Zone under Kliff Kingsbury but this will be the first time they’re favored.
• The Cardinals are 4-1 toward unders in their last five games.
• Kyler Murray has already scored four rushing touchdowns this season in three games, which is the same number of rushing TDs he scored as a rookie. The Panthers have yet to allow multiple passing TDs through the first three weeks because they’re allowing a league-high 2.3 rushing TDs per game.
• Kenyan Drake’s long run of the season went for 16 yards against the Football Team in Week 2, a mark that he topped in five of his eight games with the Cardinals last season. He’s also topped out at 2.9 FP in a game as a receiver after scoring 4+ FP as a receiver in six of his eight games with the Cardinals in 2019. Kyler is also giving Drake the Cam Newton treatment with four rushing TDs in the first three weeks of the season.
• Drake is still sitting in the top-10 at the position with 67.8% snap share — Chase Edmonds has a 33.8% share. It’s time to officially panic if he can’t come through in the mother of all spots this week against a Panthers defense that’s allowed by far the most fantasy production to RBs since 2019.
• DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 10.7 targets per game and he has a 36% target share. More impressive is that he’s caught 86% of his passes (32 of 37) in his first three games with his new QB. Mike Evans and Keenan Allen have each cleared 23+ FP in this matchup the last two weeks.
• What more does Andy Isabella need to do to have a bigger role going forward. He has a ridiculous 28.8 FP on just 35 routes this season.

Panthers Trends

• Carolina will have limited fans in attendance this week but the exact number isn’t known.
• The Panthers covered their first spread in their last eight games last week.
• Carolina has played over the total in four straight home games, and they’re 7-2 toward overs in its last nine games.
• Teddy Bridgewater has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game this season, but he’s averaging a strong 290.3 passing yards per game while averaging 8.4 YPA and completing 74.0% of his passes. The Panthers have a promising implied team total at 24.5 points going against the Cardinals this week. Arizona has allowed 250+ passing yards and two TDs to the two NFL-caliber QBs they’ve faced so far this season (Jimmy Garoppolo and Matthew Stafford).
• D.J. Moore has seen a 26% target share and his aDOT sits at 13.5 yards, but he’s once again struggling to find the end zone. He has just six scores on 243 career targets, including no TDs on 26 targets to start this season. Terry McLaurin and Kenny Golladay have each posted 17+ FP in this matchup over the last two weeks.
• Robby Anderson has seen a 24% target share and his aDOT is actually five yards shorter than Moore’s at 8.5 yards. He’s caught at least five passes with 55+ yards in each game to start the year.
• Mike Davis played on 76% of the snaps last week with a 32% target share. Davis has a whopping 16 catches in five quarters without Christian McCaffrey. The Cardinals got torched by the 49ers RBs in the passing game in Week 1 but no back has caught more than a pass against them the last two weeks.

Brolley’s Bets

Carolina Panthers +3.5 (Best Bet)

Kyler Murray (Ari) under 277.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Kyler Murray (Ari) under 25.5 completions (Best Bet)

MIke Davis (Car) under 42.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2, 2-1 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-2-1, 2-1), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Jaguars 23.25, Bengals 26.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 45.5 to 49.5
• Weather: 55 degrees, overcast, 5 mph
• Jaguars Injuries to Watch: WR D.J. Chark (chest), C Brandon Linder (knee), S Andrew Wingard (core)
• Bengals Injuries to Watch: CB Mackensie Alexander (ribs/hamstring), DT Geno Atkins (shoulder), LG Michael Jordan (knee)

Jaguars Trends

• The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
• Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.
• The Jaguars are 8-3 toward overs in their last 11 games as an underdog.
• James Robinson hung 30+ FP against the Dolphins in Week 3, posting an impressive 11/46/2 rushing and a promising 6/83 receiving out of the backfield. He did play on just 45% of the snaps since the Jaguars were playing from behind most of the night, but the Jags fed him the rock on 57% of his snaps (17 of 30). He finished two goal-line carries for touchdowns and he’s shown some serious chops as a receiver and as a pass blocker. The Bengals are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs (155.3).
• Gardner Minshew let down streamers last week with just 11.2 FP against the Dolphins, but he has a chance to bounce back this week against the Bengals. Cincy has allowed just three passing TDs total and 225 or fewer passing yards in each game to the likes of Wentz/Mayfield/Taylor.
• D.J. Chark got bit by the Jaguars playing just four days after their Week 2 contest as he couldn’t quite get healthy enough to play through a chest injury against the Dolphins. Minshew desperately needed Chark last week after Chris Conley made three critical errors that cost the Jaguars any chance of winning against the Dolphins. Chark has just seven targets in two games but he still topped 11+ FP in both games. Odell Beckham posted 4/74/1 receiving against the Bengals in Week 2.
• Keelan Cole failed to find the end zone for the first time last week while Laviska Shenault posted a season-low 34 scrimmage yards despite Chark being out of the lineup. The Bengals have yet to allow a second WR to reach 8+ FP in a game this season.

Bengals Trends

• Cincinnati will have 6,000 fans in attendance this week.
• Cincinnati covered for the second straight week but they’ve yet to win a game.
• The Bengals have played over the total in five of their last seven games.
• It hasn’t been pretty for Joe Burrow in the early going, but he’s currently the QB10 with 21.1 FPG. The Jags allowed both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill to score 24+ FP and Burrow has thrown for multiple TDs and 300+ yards in consecutive games.
• Tyler Boyd led the team in target share (21%) for the first time last week, and he turned his 13 targets into 10/125 receiving. Slot WRs have had some success against D.J. Hayden and company. Parris Campbell posted 6/71 receiving in Week 1 and Adam Humphries had 5/48/1 in Week 2.
• A.J. Green is averaging a miserable 1.00 yards per route run. He saw more than a 20% target share in each of the first two weeks before seeing a 10% share last week with Darius Slay following him. Green will get an easier matchup against rookie C.J. Henderson this week, who has allowed a receiving TD in each of the last two games
• Tee Higgins led the Bengals receivers in snap share (79%) last week and he turned his 20% target share into 5/40/2 receiving.
• Joe Mixon has just 28.2 FPG through the first three weeks after posting 26.8 FPG through the first three weeks of 2019. He’s the only RB with 45+ carries to not find the end zone so far. He’s seen a league-best 96% carries share but just a 7% target share. This is his easiest spot on the schedule so far but it’s far from easy as the Jaguars are allowing just 3.2 YPC to RBs through three weeks, which includes matchups against Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor.

Brolley’s Bets

Cincinnati Bengals -3 (Staff Pick lean)

Gardner Minshew (Jax) under 268.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Cleveland Browns (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2, 0-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Browns 25.5, Cowboys 30.5
• Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
• Weather: Dome
• Browns Injuries to Watch: RB Kareem Hunt (groin), WR Odell Beckham (back), CB Denzel Ward (groin), CB Greedy Williams (shoulder), LG Joel Bitonio (back), C JC Tretter (knee), DE Adrian Clayborn (hip), DE Olivier Vernon (abdomen)
• Cowboys Injuries to Watch: LT Tyron Smith (neck), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (knee), CB Trevon Diggs (knee)

Browns Trends

• The Browns are over .500 for the first time since 2014.
• Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
• The Browns haven’t covered a spread in their last seven road games.
• The Browns have played over the total in five of their last seven games.
• Baker Mayfield has yet to reach 17 FP in any of his first three games, and he’s attempted just 23 passes in each of his last two games. The Cowboys have played in shootouts the last two weeks because of their weak defense and their strong offense, and the Browns and Cowboys have the second-highest total of the week at 55 points. The Cowboys have allowed nine passing TDs the last two weeks so there’s hope that Baker will get his first 20+ FP performance of the season.
• Odell Beckham has seen a 25% target share or better in each of his first three games, but he’s yet to top four catches in a game this season. D.K. Metcalf (4/110/1 receiving) and Calvin Ridley (7/109/2) have gone off in this matchup the last two weeks.
• Jarvis Landry has seen just 4.3 targets per game and he’s yet to reach an 18% target share in a game this season. Tyler Lockett (9/100/3 receiving) and Russell Gage (6/46/1) have gone off in this matchup the last two weeks.
• Austin Hooper has yet to top 30+ receiving yards and 6+ FP in his first three games with the Browns, but at least Mayfield will likely have to throw it a little more this week. Greg Olsen (5/61 receiving) and Hayden Hurst (5/72/1) have produced in this matchup the last two weeks.
• Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the only teammates to have 200+ rushing yards this season. The Browns enter this week as 4.5-point road underdogs so it’s going to be difficult for the Browns to choke out the Cowboys with their rushing attack like they did to the Bengals and the Football Team the last two weeks. Chubb has totaled 43 touches, 243 scrimmage yards, and four TDs the last two weeks in positive game scripts.
• Hunt is averaging 3.7 targets per game while Chubb has seen just a target per game. The Cowboys pass defense has been torched all over the field, which has limited the receiving production they’ve allowed to opposing RBs — they’re giving up 3.7/23.3/0 receiving to RBs per game.

Cowboys Trends

• Dallas allowed about 21,000 fans to attend Week 2’s contest and they’re expected to expand the number this week.
• The Cowboys have yet to cover a spread this season, and they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
• Dallas has played over the total in five of its last seven games.
• Ezekiel Elliott scored a touchdown for the third straight game, but he averaged an ugly 2.4 YPC and an even uglier 2.0 YPT. The Browns have allowed just 3.3 YPC and 6.3 YPT to opposing backs so far.
• Dak Prescott has attempted 94 passes the last two weeks in negative game scripts, which has resulted in 450+ passing yards in each contest. The Cowboys could play in a positive game script as 4.5-point home favorites against a ball-control offense in the Browns, but Cleveland has still allowed multiple TD passes in every game this season.
• Amari Cooper has scored 16+ FP in every game this season even without finding paydirt yet. He’s now scored in just one of his last 10 games.
• CeeDee Lamb saw just an 11% target share and a 60% snap share last week with Cedric Wilson playing a little more with Lamb a bit gimpy after an early injury. He still has five or more catches in every game but he’s yet to find the end zone.
• Michael Gallup busted out last week after totaling just 5/108 receiving on 10 targets in his first two games. He posted 6/138/1 receiving on nine targets, and it didn’t hurt that both Amari and CeeDee played through in-game injuries last week.
• Dalton Schultz blew up in Week 2 with 9/88/1 receiving in his first game without Blake Jarwin (ACL, IR), and it was a positive sign to see that he didn’t disappear in Week 3. He posted a solid 4/48 receiving on six targets against the Seahawks. He now gets an excellent matchup against a Browns defense that’s struggled to defend TEs this season. Tight ends have seen a whopping 10.3 targets per game (3rd-most) going against the Browns this season, and they’re allowing the fourth-most FPG (15.63) to the position.

Brolley’s Bets

Cleveland Browns +4.5 (Staff Pick lean)

New Orleans Saints (1-2, 1-2 ATS) at Detroit Lions (1-2, 1-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Saints 29.25, Lions 24.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 4.5, 55 to 54
• Weather: Dome
• Saints Injuries to Watch: WR Michael Thomas (ankle), CB Janoris Jenkins (shoulder), CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), TE Jared Cook (groin), DE Marcus Davenport (elbow), LG Andrus Peat (ankle)
• Lions Injuries to Watch: CB Desmond Trufant (hamstring), DE Da’Shawn Hand (chest)

Saints Trends

• The Saints have covered the spread in their last four games against teams with losing records.
• New Orleans has played over the total in five of its last six games.
• Alvin Kamara has the second-most FP (106.8) of all-time through the first three weeks of the season. The Lions are allowing a whopping 184.6 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs.
• Drew Brees has attempted 20+ yard passes at the lowest rate this season at just 2.9% and his average depth of throw is the lowest in the league at 5.1 yards. The Lions have allowed multiple passing TDs and 19+ FP in every game this season.
• Brees would certainly be in a better spot this week if Michael Thomas (ankle) and Jared Cook (ankle) are in the lineup. DeAndre Hopkins posted 10/137 receiving against the Lions last week while the tight ends scored touchdowns against Detroit in Weeks 1-2.
• Emmanuel Sanders has yet to reach 6+ targets in a game this season, but he finally showed some life with 4/56/1 receiving against the Packers last week. Tre’Quan Smith has seen WR/TE-best 18% target share the last two weeks with Thomas out of the lineup, which he’s turned into a solid 9/128 receiving.

Lions Trends

• Detroit won’t have fans in attendance this week.
• The Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
• Detroit is 7-1 toward overs in its last eight home games.
• Kenny Golladay immediately saw a team-best seven targets (22.6% share) in his first game back, which he turned into 6/57/1 receiving with his score coming on a 15-yard pass against the Cardinals. Golladay played on a promising 73% of the snaps, which should be on the rise going forward since he didn’t suffer any setbacks in Week 3. He’ll get a tougher matchup against Marshon Lattimore and company this week, but Allen Lazard just went for 8/146/1 receiving against them last week.
• Matthew Stafford has steadily improved each week in his return from his broken back last season. His YPA (7.1<7.4<8.7) and his completion percentage (57.1<60.6<71.0) have improved each week, and he gets a matchup with a Saints defense that’s allowed 22+ FP in each of their first three games.
• Marvin Jones saw a season-low three targets with Golladay back last week, and he’s yet to reach 60+ yards in a game this season.
• T.J. Hockenson has been a steady option early in the year with four or five catches for between 53-62 yards in the first three games. He ran a season-best 31 routes on 35 Stafford dropbacks (89%) while the Saints have allowed four TDs to TEs in the early going. Malcolm Jenkins has struggled in coverage and has been picked on consistently to start the year.
• D’Andre Swift led the backfield in snap rate through the first two weeks of the season before seeing a 9% rate last week. Swift didn’t see a single carry and he finished with just a 19-yard catch on two targets in Detroit’s Week 3 victory over the Cardinals. The Lions have relegated Swift to just passing-down situations so the talented rookie should be left on benches until he actually sees some sort of early-down role.
• Adrian Peterson led the backfield with a 60% share and 22 carries (3.4 YPC) while Kerryon Johnson saw a 30% share and three carries. The Saints have allowed 3.5 YPC to opposing RBs this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Detroit Lions +4 (Best Bet)

T.J. Hockenson (Det) over 42.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

D’Andre Swift (Det) over 2.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Seattle Seahawks (3-0, 3-0 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (1-2, 2-1), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Seahawks 30, Dolphins 24
• Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 6
• Weather: 85 degrees, humid, 10-15 mph
• Seahawks Injuries to Watch: RB Chris Carson (knee), S Jamal Adams (groin), CB Quinton Dunbar (knee), RB Carlos Hyde (shoulder), LB Jordyn Brooks (knee), CB Shaquil Griffin (shoulder), CB Neiko Thorpe (hip), DT Poona Ford (groin), LT Duane Brown (knee), DE Benson Mayowa (groin), LB Cody Barton (quad), LG Mike Iupati (knee), RG Damien Lewis (ankle),
• Dolphins Injuries to Watch: CB Byron Jones (groin)

Seahawks Trends

• The Seahawks are unbeaten against the spread and they’ve played over the total in every game.
• Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.
• Russell Wilson has the most touchdown passes through the first three weeks of any season in NFL history with 14. The Dolphins are allowing a league-worst 8.3 YPA and the fourth-most FPG to QBs (23.8).
• D.K. Metcalf has exactly four catches and one touchdown in every game, and he’s averaging 24.8 YPR while topping 90+ receiving yards in every game. He’ll tangle with Xavien Howard and potentially Byron Jones (groin) on the perimeter this week.
• Tyler Lockett has 7+ catches in every game with four TDs overall after last week’s three-TD explosion. Lockett will get the cushier matchups out of the slot this week, where he’s run routes 63% of the time.
• Greg Olsen is in play while Wilson is smoking hot. He’s turned his 11 targets into 9/85/1 receiving and six of those targets came last week. The Dolphins are allowing the seventh-fewest FPG to TEs this season (7.7) but they haven’t faced a TE inside the top-25 at the position yet.
• Chris Carson (knee) is expected to miss this week, which will elevate Carlos Hyde to the lead-runner role and Travis Homer into the passing-back role. The Dolphins have allowed just one RB to reach 10+ FP this season, which was James Robinson’s 30.9 FP explosion last week. Hyde has the chance to post some numbers in a positive game script with the Seahawks favored by 6.5 points.

Dolphins Trends

• Miami will have about 13,000 fans in attendance this week.
• The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
• The Dolphins 6-1 ATS in their last six home games
• Miami has played over the total in its last five home games, and they’re 7-3 toward overs in its last 10 games.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick has been working his magic over the last six quarters, completing 82.2% of his passes and averaging 8.0 YPA in two quarters against the Bills and four quarters against the Jags. Fitz completed 18/20 passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3, and he added 7/38/1 rushing for his second straight performance of 24+ FP. The Seahawks are giving up the second-most FPG to QBs through three weeks (30.2).
• The Seahawks could be without S Jamal Adams (groin) and CB Quinton Dunbar (knee) in Miami this week, which is good news for this passing attack. DeVante Parker is clearly laboring through a hamstring injury, but he still managed to post serviceable fantasy production with five catches in each of the last two games. He led the Dolphins with 5/69 receiving, catching all five of his targets (25% share). Parker had 10 days to rest and recover so we may finally see him close to 100% against a beatable and banged up Seahawks secondary.
• Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki have been inconsistent options in the first month of the season. Williams has caught just 35.7% of his targets (5 of 14) and he’s yet to top two receptions in a game. Gesicki has been held to 30 yards or fewer in two of his three matchups, but he’s scored in two of his three games. Adams’ injury is one to monitor for Gesicki this weekend.
• Myles Gaskin and Alvin Kamara are the only two backs with four or more catches in every game. Gaskin has played 68% of the snaps through three weeks, but he’s still getting sniped by Jordan Howard at the goal line. The Seahawks allowed 6/24 receiving to Ezekiel Elliott last week and 4/47 to Rex Burkhead in Week 2.

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins +6.5 (Staff Pick lean)

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Mia) over 23.5 completions (Best Bet)

DeVante Parker (Mia) over 62.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Myles Gaskin (Mia) over 24.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 2-1 ATS) at Washington Football Team (1-2, 1-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Ravens 30, Washington 16
• Spread/Total Movements: 13 to 14, 47 to 46
• Weather: 65 degrees, clear, 5 mph
• Ravens Injuries to Watch: LT Ronnie Stanley (shoulder), DE Derek Wolfe (elbow), CB Jimmy Smith (knee), LB LJ Fort (thigh)
• Washington Injuries to Watch: WR Terry McLaurin (thigh), DE Chase Young (groin), DE Matt Ioannidis (biceps, IR), WR Steve Sims (toe), RT Morgan Moses (hip)

Ravens Trends

• The Ravens lost last week for the first time in 13 regular-season games. They’re 10-3 ATS in that span.
• Baltimore has played under the total in all three games.
• The Ravens have covered the spread while playing under the total in five straight games as a road favorite.
• Lamar Jackson averaged just 3.5 YPA and he completed 53.6% of his passes against the Chiefs in Week 3. He did top 55+ rushing yards for the first time last week and Kyler Murray diced them up for 8/67/2 rushing in Week 2.
• Mark Andrews dropped a touchdown in Week 3, but he’s still seeing a 30% air yards share and a 23% target share despite posting just 4/51 receiving the last two weeks. The Football Team has allowed three TDs to TEs in the first three weeks.
• Hollywood Brown had just 2/13 receiving in Week 3 but Lamar missed him for two long TD receptions. Hollywood is still seeing a 36% air yards share and a 24% target share. The problem is that his 24% target share equates to just six targets in every game this season, which leaves little wiggle room if Lamar is off like he was last week. The Football Team has allowed just one TD to WRs this year.
• With the Ravens playing from behind for most of Week 3, J.K. Dobbins led this backfield with 22 snaps, four targets, and one carry. Mark Ingram finished with seven carries on 15 snaps while Gus Edwards had four carries on 12 snaps. The Football Team just allowed 174/3 scrimmage to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last week with DL Chase Young and Matt Ioannidis (biceps, IR) leaving early.

Washington Trends

• Washington won’t have fans in attendance this week.
• The Football Team is 1-5 ATS in their last six games
• Washington is 5-1 toward overs in their last six games.
• Dwayne Haskins ranks last out of 36 QBs in on-target throw rates at 63%, and HC Ron Rivera is already starting to put the heat on him. The Ravens had allowed just two passing TDs before Patrick Mahomes throttled them for five total TDs.
• Terry McLaurin has 60+ receiving yards and 4+ catches in every game this season with a 25% target share. The Ravens have allowed 14+ FP to speedy WRs Mecole Hardman, Tyreek Hill, and Randall Cobb
• Logan Thomas has run a route on 91.3% of Haskins’ dropbacks so far (105 of 115) and he has a 24% target share, but he’s averaging just .9 yards per route run. The Ravens have allowed 10+ FP to four different TEs in three games this season.
• Antonio Gibson saw fewer snaps than J.D. McKissic (34 to 26) but Gibson still led the way with 12/60/1 scrimmage against the Browns. McKissic did run more routes (25 to 14) in a blowout loss last week, which is notable since the Football Team enters this week as 13-point home underdogs. The Ravens are allowing the third-fewest FPG to RBs this season (18.3).

Brolley’s Bets

Baltimore Ravens -13 (Staff Pick lean)

Marquise Brown (Bal) over 41.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Minnesota Vikings (0-3, 1-2 ATS) at Houston Texans (0-3, 0-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Vikings 25, Texans 29
• Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 4, 52.5 to 54
• Weather: Dome
• Vikings Injuries to Watch: CB Mike Hughes (neck), CB Cameron Dantzler (rib)
• Texans Injuries to Watch: WR Will Fuller (hamstring), OLB Zach Cunningham (groin), FB Cullen Gillaspia (hamstring)

Vikings Trends

• The Vikings have played over the total in all three games.
• Minnesota is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.
• The Vikings are 5-2 toward overs in their last seven road games.
• Dalvin Cook posted a career-high 181 rushing yards against the Titans in Week 3 and he scored his fourth touchdown of the season, which has helped him to 17+ FP in each week. Cook is off to an extremely slow start as a receiver with just 5/24 receiving on nine targets through the first three games. The Texans defense just allowed 24.9 FP to James Conner, and they’ve given up 170+ scrimmage yards to RBs in every game.
• Kirk Cousins is averaging just 26.0 attempts per game while the Texans have yet to allow more than 240 passing yards because of their run-funnel defense even with matchups against Mahomes/Lamar/Big Ben.
• Justin Jefferson looked like the team’s top receiver in their loss to the Titans as the rookie WR went nuts for 7/175/1 receiving on a 36% target share in Week 3. He went from 54% of the snaps in Week 2 to 79% in Week 3. Most importantly, he ran 77.8% of his routes on the perimeter after running just 17.8% of his routes on the perimeter in his first two games — they benched perimeter WR Bisi Johnson and inserted slot Chad Beebe into the lineup in three-WR sets. Jefferson’s aDOT in Week 3 sat at a healthy 14.2 yards after sitting at just 8.8 yards through two weeks as a slot WR.
• Adam Thielen went from looking like the potential WR1 for fantasy after he posted 6/110/2 receiving in Week 1 to looking like he could be in a battle for the Vikings’ WR1 spot with just 6/60/1 receiving the last two weeks. Sammy Watkins is the only WR to top 50+ yards against the Texans this year.

Texans Trends

• Houston will have about 13,300 fans in attendance this week.
• Houston has yet to cover a spread this season
• The Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
• Houston is 9-2 toward unders in its last 11 games as a home favorite.
• Deshaun Watson and the Texans faced an absolute gauntlet of games to open the season, with matchups against the Chiefs, the Ravens, and the Steelers in September. He threw for multiple TDs for the first time in Week 3 but he ran for just five yards in a loss to Pittsburgh in Week 3 — he finished with 264/2 passing with an INT. Watson is on pace to finish with a career-low rushing number as he’s averaging just 16.7 rushing yards per game through three weeks. Ryan Tannehill threw for 314 yards but failed to throw for a TD last week.
• Brandin Cooks has a team-best 20% target share and he’s averaging 12.1 air yards on those targets. Cooks has played 90% and 85% of the snaps the last two weeks so he’s back to full strength off of his quad injury. Speedster Kalif Raymond burned the Vikings for 3/118 receiving last week.
• Will Fuller played on 94% of the snaps last week after his hamstring scare in Week 2, and he now has two performances with 15+ FP sandwiched around a goose egg. The Vikings are allowing a league-high 8.3 YPA so far.
• Jordin Akins has run the eighth-most routes (96) at the position but he’s seen a below-average 13% target share. Minnesota has allowed five catches and 60+ yards to both Mo Ali-Cox and Jonnu Smith in the last two weeks.
• David Johnson posted just 13/23 rushing and 2/23 receiving on three targets against the Steelers in Week 3, but he salvaged his fantasy day with a two-yard TD run. He at least saw 96% of the snaps but his stranglehold on this backfield could come to an end this week with Duke Johnson (ankle) likely to return this week after getting limited practices in before Week 3. The Vikes have been gashed for 65+ rushing yards and 1+ TDs on the ground by individual backs in every week.

Brolley’s Bets

Houston Texans -4.5 (Staff Pick lean)

Dalvin Cook (Min) over 78.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

New York Giants (0-3, 1-2 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (2-1, 2-1), 4:05 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Giants 17.5, Rams 30.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 12 to 13, 47.5 to 48
• Weather: Dome
• Giants Injuries to Watch: S Jabrill Peppers (ankle), CB Julian Love (knee)
• Rams Injuries to Watch: RB Cam Akers (ribs, doubtful), S Jordan Fuller (shoulder)

Giants Trends

• The GIants are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.
• The Giants are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games.
• Daniel Jones has progressively played worse in each game this season as his YPA (6.8>6.0>5.6) and his completion percentage (63.4>62.5>53.1) have fallen each week. The Rams just held another struggling QB, Carson Wentz, to 242 yards and two INTs in Week 2 before getting beat up by Josh Allen (311/4 passing).
• Darius Slayton and Golden Tate each saw seven targets while Evan Engram had just five looks in their first game without Sterling Shepard (foot).
• Slayton is likely to see the most of top CB Jalen Ramsey this week. He’s coming in on a cold streak with just 6/86 receiving on 16 targets the last two weeks after hanging 6/102/2 receiving in the season opener.
• Tate has five catches in each of his first two games, but he’s yet to reach 50+ receiving yards or find the end zone. Cole Beasley posted 6/100 receiving out of the slot against the Rams last week.
• Engram has yet to reach 100 receiving yards this season with just 11/96 receiving on 20 targets. The Rams gave up three goal-line touchdowns to the Bills backup TEs last week.
• Devonta Freeman saw a promising 15 snaps in his first game with Big Blue, just behind Dion Lewis (20 snaps) and Wayne Gallman (18 snaps). The problem is these RBs combined for just 34 scrimmage yards on 13 touches.

Rams Trends

• Los Angeles won’t have fans in attendance this week.
• The Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.
• Los Angeles is 5-1 toward unders in its last six games as a home favorite.
• The Rams are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games.
• Los Angeles has played over the total in five of its last six games.
• The Rams are the only team to top 400+ yards in every game this season.
• You may have guessed that Russell Wilson or Josh Allen is leading the league in yards per attempt, but it’s actually Jared Goff that’s pacing all QBs with his 9.6 YPA average. He’s now thrown for multiple TD passes in seven of his last eight games. Backup Nick Mullens threw for 343 yards and a touchdown against the Giants last week.
• Robert Woods has posted 15+ FP in eight of his last 10 games, and he already has seven carries for 63 yards in addition to his receiving work. He’ll see the most of James Bradberry on the perimeter, but he’s running 44% of his routes from the slot this — his slot rate was 35% last season.
• Cooper Kupp production has been on the climb in the first three weeks of the season, culminating in his 9/107/1 receiving performance against the Bills last week.
• Tyler Higbee has run a route on just 51.5% of Goff’s dropbacks this season (51 of 99), and his snap shares have dipped each week (89%>84%>73%). Higbee has a pair of 40-yard receiving games sandwiching his three-touchdown game in Week 2. The Giants are allowing just 3.3/41.0/0 receiving per game to TEs through three weeks.
• Darrell Henderson could be starting to run away with this backfield with Cam Akers (ribs) out of the lineup. He has run for 5+ yards on 40% of his carries, which has helped him total 120+ scrimmage yards with a touchdown in each of the last two weeks. The Giants are allowing 153.3 scrimmage yards per game to opposing backs so far.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Rams -12.5 (Staff Pick lean)

Jared Goff (LAR) under 24.5 completions (Best Bet)

Buffalo Bills (3-0, 2-1 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-1, 2-1), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Bills 28, Raiders 25
• Spread/Total Movements: 51.5 to 53
• Weather: Dome
• Bills Injuries to Watch: WR John Brown (calf), RB Zack Moss (toe), LT Dion Dawkins (shoulder), S Micah Hyde (ankle), DT Ed Oliver (knee)
• Raiders Injuries to Watch: WR Henry Ruggs (hamstring, doubtful), CB Damon Arnette (thumb, out), WR Bryan Edwards (ankle, out), LT Trent Brown (calf), S Johnathan Abram (shoulder), LB Cory Littleton (knee), LB Nick Kwiatkoski (pec)

Bills Trends

• The Bills have played over the total in all three of their games.
• Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.
• Josh Allen has now thrown for 300+ yards in every game this season after having never crossed the threshold in his first two seasons. The Raiders have yet to allow multiple TDs to a passer this season, but they are allowing a beatable 7.3 YPA so far.
• Stefon Diggs saw a season-low 19% target share last week but he still scored a touchdown on his way to 14.9 FP, which was his lowest output of the season. His target share should spike back up this week with John Brown (calf) looking iffy to play.
• Rookie Gabe Davis saw a 74% snap share in Week 3 with Brown leaving early, and he turned those snaps into 4/81 receiving. Slot WR Cole Beasley also posted season-best numbers with Brown out of the lineup, posting 100 receiving yards for the third time in his last seven games.
• Brown did return to practice on Thursday, which gives him a chance to play this week. He posted 10/152/2 receiving in his first two games before his injury-shortened Week 3.
• Devin Singletary handled 89% of the snaps with Zack Moss (toe) out last week, but the rookie RB is trending toward returning to the lineup this week. Singletary posted 129 scrimmage yards with seven catches in the first two games of the season while Moss had just 64 scrimmage yards and three catches. The Raiders have allowed a league-high 218.3 scrimmage yards to opposing RBs this season.

Raiders Trends

• Las Vegas won’t have fans in attendance this week.
• Las Vegas has played over the total in three straight games.
• The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• Josh Jacobs has seen four or more targets twice this year, which he did just one time last season. Jacobs had a down game against the Patriots for his standards and he still posted a solid 83 scrimmage with three catches. The Bills have allowed a rushing touchdown in every game and they just allowed Darrell Henderson to hang 120 scrimmage yards last week.
• Derek Carr (152.9) and Josh Allen (146.2) rank first and second in passer rating on play-action passes. Carr is averaging 7.8 YPA and 2.0 passing TDs per game with an interception in the early going, but he has lost three fumbles in the last two weeks. The Bills have allowed 300+ passing yards and two TDs to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff the last two weeks.
• Darren Waller went from posting 12/103/1 receiving on Monday Night Football to just 2/9 last week with Bill Belichick doubling him all over the field. Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett combined for 4/74 receiving last week against the Bills.
• Hunter Renfrow saw increased action last week with Waller getting extra attention and with Henry Ruggs (knee) and Bryan Edwards (ankle) banged up. The Bills have been gashed by slot WRs all season with Cooper Kupp (9/107/1 receiving), Isaiah Ford (7/76), and Jamison Crowder (7/115/1) each going off.

Brolley’s Bets

Las Vegas Raiders +3 (Staff Pick lean)

Josh Jacobs (LV) over 91.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles (0-2-1, 0-3 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1, 2-1), 8:20 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Eagles 19.5, 49ers 26.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 7, 45 to 46
• Weather: 72 degrees, clear, 5 mph
• Eagles Injuries to Watch: TE Dallas Goedert (ankle, IR), WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring), WR Alshon Jeffery (foot), LG Jamon Brown (ill), RT Lane Johnson (ankle), CB Avonte Maddox (ankle), LT Jason Peters (ill), RB Miles Sanders (glute), CB Trevor Williams (rib), WR John Hightower (ill), WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside (calf),
• 49ers Injuries to Watch: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), RB Raheem Mostert (knee), DL Dee Ford (back), LB Dre Greenlaw (quad), CB Emmanuel Moseley (concussion), CB K’Waun Williams (hip), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring), TE Jordan Reed (knee)

Eagles Trends

• The Eagles have yet to cover a spread and they have the league’s worst spread differential at -13.7 points.
• Philly is 5-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.
• The Eagles are 4-1 toward unders in their last five games as an underdog.
• Carson Wentz had 9/65/1 rushing last week to keep his fantasy production afloat while the 49ers allowed Daniel Jones (5/49 rushing) and Kyler Murray (13/91/1) to rack up rushing production. Throwing the rock has been Wentz’s issue, though, as he ranks 34th out of 36 QBs in on-target throw rates at just 66%. He’s thrown two INTs in every game this season and his YPA average has fallen in each game this season (6.4>5.6>4.8).
• Miles Sanders has played on 78% of the snaps and he’s handled 53 opportunities in his first two games, totaling 105+ scrimmage yards in each game. He’ll get the toughest draw for RBs this week against a 49ers defense that’s allowing just 80.4 scrimmage yards per game.
• Zach Ertz’s production has picked up every week, culminating in a 7/70 receiving performance against the Bengals last week. He’s going to be active going forward too with Dallas Goedert (ankle, IR), Jalen Reagor (thumb, IR), and DeSean Jackson (hamstring) all banged up. The 49ers have yet to allow more than 25 receiving yards to an opposing TE this season after allowing the fifth-fewest FPG (9.8) to the position last season.
• We’ll see about D-Jax’s availability this weekend as the Eagles could be down to Greg Ward and John Hightower as their top options. Ward posted 8/72/1 receiving last week while playing on 84% of the snaps and Hightower managed just 2/19 receiving despite leading the Eagles WRs with 85% of the snaps.

49ers Trends

• San Francisco won’t have fans in attendance this week.
• The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
• San Fran is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
• The 49ers are 6-2 toward overs in their last eight home games.
• Nick Mullens completed 25/36 passes for 343 yards (9.5 YPA) and one touchdown in an easy victory over the Giants last week. He’s now averaging an insanely strong 8.4 YPA in 11 career appearances under HC Kyle Shanahan. The Eagles have allowed 265+ passing yards and multiple passing TDs to Jared Goff and Joe Burrow the last two weeks.
• Mullens will likely get his boy George Kittle back this week from his knee injury. Kittle averaged 6.4/99.1/.4 receiving per game on 9.9 targets in eight games with Mullens back in 2018. The Eagles have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends through the first three games.
• Brandon Aiyuk saw his target share rise from 11% in his pro debut in Week 2 to a 23% share last week. He also got three carries, one of which he turned into a touchdown. There’s a chance Deebo Samuel (foot, IR) returns this week, but he’s more likely to rejoin the lineup in Week 5. Aiyuk will have a challenging matchup with Darius Slay this week, who is once again looking like one of the better CBs in the league. Slay has allowed just 10/87 receiving on16 targets despite matchups with Green/Woods/McLaurin in the early going.
• Jerick McKinnon saw 36 more snaps than Jeff Wilson (46 to 10) in the first three quarters last week before he left early for a rib issue. McKinnon finished with 17/77/1 scrimmage while Wilson had 15/69/2 scrimmage, most of which came late in their blowout victory over the Giants. The Eagles have allowed just 3.5 YPC and only 3.3 catches per game to opposing RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Philadelphia Eagles +7 (Staff Pick lean)

George Kittle (SF) over 50.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)