Best Bets: Week 4


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Best Bets: Week 4

Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.

Tom Brolley

Game Picks

ATS Record: 9-7-1 (+.7 units); W4: 1-1-1 (-.12)

Totals Record: 2-2 (+.05 units); W4: 0-0

Carolina Panthers (+3.5, DraftKings) vs. Arizona Cardinals

I had this line closer to +2.5 in my Power Ratings, and I’m seeing even more value on Friday with the Cardinals missing their starting safeties Budda Baker (hamstring) and Chris Banjo (thumb). More importantly, they could be without WRs DeAndre Hopkins (ankle) and Christian Kirk (groin) on Sunday as they’re both game-time decisions. This line could crash to +2.5 on Sunday morning if Hopkins doesn’t play, and it sounds like he could be well below 100% if he would try to play. I’m getting ahead of the game by grabbing a +3.5 now before a potential line dip below the key number of three. Risk one unit at -114 to win .88 units (Oct. 1).

Los Angeles Chargers (+7, DraftKings) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I haven’t been high on the Chargers since this summer but Anthony Lynn’s preferred style of play is more conducive for tight games. The Chargers and the Buccaneers did have a common opponent in the Panthers the last two weeks. Tampa closed as a 7.5-point home favorite against Carolina while Los Angeles closed as a six-point home favorite against Carolina. The Chargers of course lost to the Panthers last week, but this week’s line seems like a bit of an overcorrection for two teams that the books had similarly lined going against the Panthers the last two weeks. I also like that Justin Herbert has been feisty moving the ball through the air with a pair of 300+ yard games to start his career. The backdoor could be open if the Chargers would find themselves trailing by multiple scores late. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Oct. 1).

Detroit Lions (+4, DraftKings) vs. New Orleans Saints

Matthew Stafford has steadily improved each week in his return from his broken back, which ended his 2019 campaign. His YPA (7.1<7.4<8.7) and his completion percentage (57.1<60.6<71.0) have improved each week, and Kenny Golladay should be back to 100% after making it through his first game back from his hamstring injury. This offense could be ready to fire on all cylinders this week after they got their season back on track with a victory against the Cardinals last week. The Saints defense has been killed by penalties and coverage lapses by Marshon Lattimore, Janoris Jenkins, and Malcolm Jenkins. The New Orleans offense could get Michael Thomas back in the lineup this week, which could be a big boost, but I’m skeptical about him being a difference-maker this week playing two weeks after sustaining a high-ankle sprain. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Oct. 1).

Atlanta Falcons (+7.5, DraftKings) at Green Bay Packers

I must be crazy to go back to the well with the Falcons this week after they cost me my biggest bet of last week by blowing a 16-point lead to the Bears in the final half of the fourth quarter. Well, here I am betting on Atlanta again on a line that should be in the six-point range. The markets are obviously a little tentative to back the Falcons after last week while bettors are on the Packers bandwagon after they knocked off the Falcons on national TV on Sunday Night Football.

I like the Falcons much better in their role this week as a team that has to cover a big spread as an underdog compared to their role last week as a team that has to protect a spread as a favorite. I grabbed this line when it was at 7.5 on Thursday but some of those 7.5s have started to turn into 7s as of late Thursday afternoon. I still like the Falcons catching a full touchdown if you don’t want to wait to see if the 7.5s start popping back up by Monday. Risk one unit at -112 to win .89 units (Oct. 1).

Player Props

Record: 39-23 (+13.88 units); W4: 10-7 (+2.44 units)

All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.

  • K.J. Hamler over 32.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)

  • Kyler Murray (Ari) under 277.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Kyler Murray (Ari) under 25.5 completions (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (Mia) over 23.5 completions (+100, DraftKings) (W)

  • Jared Goff (LAR) under 24.5 completions (-120, DraftKings) (L)

  • Gardner Minshew (Jax) under 268.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)

  • Philip Rivers (Ind) over .5 interceptions (-110, BetMGM) (L)

  • Dalvin Cook (Min) over 78.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Myles Gaskin (Mia) over 24.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • MIke Davis (Car) under 42.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • D’Andre Swift (Det) over 2.5 receptions (+130, BetMGM) (W)

  • DeVante Parker (Mia) over 62.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Marquise Brown (Bal) over 41.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM) (W)

  • Jimmy Graham (Chi) over 27.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM) (W)

  • T.J. Hockenson (Det) over 42.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)

  • George Kittle (SF) over 50.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM) (W)

  • Josh Jacobs (LV) over 91.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • Aaron Rodgers (GB) under 289.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)