Week 3 Sunday Trends and Picks

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Week 3 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

This week’s player props

  • Kirk Cousins (Min) under 254.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Terry McLaurin (Was) over 58.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

  • Marquise Brown (Bal) over 51.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

  • Zach Ertz (Phi) over 4.5 receptions (+125, DraftKings)

  • Todd Gurley (Atl) over 14.5 carries (-112, DraftKings)

  • Kyle Murray (Ari) under 282.5 (-110, BetMGM)

  • Dan Arnold (Ari) under 30.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Dan Arnold (Ari) under 2.5 receptions (+124, DraftKings)

  • Jordan Akins (Hou) over 25.5 (-106, BetMGM)

  • Nick Mullens (SF) under 252.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Austin Ekeler (LAC) over 60.5 rushing yards (-112, BetMGM)

  • Darius Slayton (NYG) over 42.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

  • Jordan Reed (SF) under 51.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

  • Chris Godwin (TB) over 58.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Jerry Jeudy (Den) over 3.5 receptions (+110, DraftKings)

Early Afternoon Games

Los Angeles Rams (2-0, 2-0 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (2-0, 1-1), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Rams 22.25, Bills 24.75

  • Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 2.5, 46.5 to 47

  • Weather: 73 degrees, partly cloudy, 15 mph

  • Rams Injuries to Watch: LG Joe Noteboom (calf, out), RB Cam Akers (rib), RB Malcolm Brown (finger)

  • Bills Injuries to Watch: RB Zack Moss (toe, out), LB Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder), LB Matt Milano (hamstring), WR John Brown (foot), DT Ed Oliver (knee), TE Dawson Knox (concussion)

Rams Trends

  • Due to the pandemic, the Rams changed their original travel plans for staying out on the East Coast in between Weeks 2-3 with games in Philly and Buffalo. The Rams traveled to Philadelphia for Week 2, returned home after Sunday’s game, and then they’ll travel back to Buffalo this weekend.

  • The Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games

  • Los Angeles is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games.

  • The Rams are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games.

  • Jared Goff has now thrown for multiple TD passes in six of his last seven games, and he’s thrown for 265+ yards in each of those contests. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for two TDs last week, which is just the fourth time they’ve allowed multiple TDs since the start of 2019.

  • Robert Woods will take on his old team this week after he managed just 2/14 receiving last week — luckily he added 3/19/1 rushing. Woods will see more of Tre’Davious White than Cooper Kupp this week, but Woods has actually run 46% of his routes from the slot to start the year compared to Kupp’s 59% rate. Kupp has seen just 11 targets to start the year, and he’s now seen six or fewer targets in eight of his last 10 games.

  • Tyler Higbee scored three TDs last week, but he’s run routes on just 58% of Goff’s dropbacks so far (37 of 54). The Bills allowed 8/130/1 receiving to Mike Gesicki last week with Matt Milano (hamstring) and Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder) out of the lineup.

  • Malcolm Brown (finger) is expected to play this week while Cam Akers (rib) is on the questionable side. Brown was the man in Week 1 while Darrell Henderson shined last week. The backfield is a crapshoot at this point the Rams are second in carries per game (39.5) and third in rushing yards per game (172.0). The Bills have allowed 4.0 YPC against the lowly Jets and Dolphins rushing attacks.

Bills Trends

  • The Bills won’t have fans in attendance this week.

  • The Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games.

  • Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.

  • Josh Allen set single-game career highs in passing yards (417), touchdown passes (four), and passer rating (147.0) last week. Allen, Patrick Mahomes (2019), Peyton Manning (2013), and Tom Brady (2013) are the only QBs to post 700+ passing yards and 6+ TDs without an INT in the first two games of the season. The Rams have limited Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz to just 32 FP combined while allowing just one passing and one receiving TD.

  • The Bills are playing with pace and spreading teams out as they did in the second half of last season, and substituting Stefon Diggs into the lineup for last year’s third WR Isaiah McKenzie is a bit of an upgrade for Allen and this passing attack.

  • Stefon Diggs already has 16/239/1 receiving on 22 targets through two games, as he’s quickly established himself as Allen’s top weapon. John Brown hasn’t been too bad himself as the #2 WR, as he’s seen 16 targets through two games, resulting in 70+ yards and a touchdown in both contests. Diggs and Brown will be matched up against Jalen Ramsey on the perimeter this week, but you can’t shy away from these receivers with Allen attempting 81 passes for 729 yards in the early going. Diggs has run 32% of his snaps from the slot to avoid Ramsey a little more than Brown (9% slot rate).

  • Devin Singletary has 19 carries and 10 targets compared to Zack Moss’ 17 carries and four targets. Ezekiel Elliott and Miles Sanders each scored 21+ FP against the Rams in bell-cow roles, which Singletary could get this week with Moss out of the lineup.

Brolley’s Bets

Over 46.5 points (Best Bet)

Buffalo Bills -2.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Chicago Bears (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (0-2, 1-1), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bears 22.25, Falcons 25.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
  • Weather: Dome
  • Bears Injuries to Watch: DT John Jenkins (thumb, IR), LB Khalil Mack (knee)
  • Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring), DE Dante Fowler (ankle), DB Kendall Sheffield (foot), DE Takk McKinley (groin), OT Kaleb McGary (knee), S Ricardo Allen (elbow)

Bears Trends

  • The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games
  • The Bears are 7-2 towards under in their last nine games as an underdog.
  • Mitch Trubisky is averaging 19.7 FPG (QB14) so far. Trubisky isn’t in the same area code as Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, but both of those QBs went for 30+ FP going against this young Falcons secondary. It hasn’t necessarily been pretty but Mitch does have five TDs so far.
  • Allen Robinson ranks in the top-five in air yards (382) and he has a 27% target share right now. He’s caught 48% of his targets and he’s actually caught all nine of his catchable passes. D.K. Metcalf posted 4/95/1 receiving and Amari Cooper had 6/100 receiving in the first two weeks against the Falcons.
  • Anthony Miller went without a catch in Week 2 on three targets as rookie Darnell Mooney continues to work ahead of him in two-WR sets. Mooney ran 21 routes compared to Miller’s 17 last week. Darqueze Dennard has been torched for 16/160 receiving on 20 targets so far.
  • The Titans and the Bears are the only teams that have yet to find the end zone on the ground to start this season.
  • David Montgomery has now seen 16+ opportunities in 13-of-18 games. He’s averaging 5.0 YPC in the first two weeks while the Falcons are allowing 3.5 YPC. Atlanta is giving up 7.5 catches per game with a receiving TD through the first two weeks to give Montgomery and Tarik Cohen a boost. Montgomery has 4/55/1 receiving while Cohen has 3/21 receiving so far.

Falcons Trends

  • The Falcons will have no fans in attendance this week.
  • The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.
  • The Falcons are 5-1 toward overs in their last six games.
  • The Falcons were the first team since 1933 to lose a game despite scoring 39 points and having 0 turnovers. Teams had been 440-0 previously in that scenario.
  • Matt Ryan is averaging 45.0 passes per game and he’s averaging 26.7 FPG in the early going. Mitchell Trubisky won’t bring the same back-and-forth action to this contest as Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, and the Bears have allowed just one passing TD so far.
  • Calvin Ridley is the WR1 in the early going with 31.9 FPG. Ridley and A.J. Green are tied for the league lead in end-zone targets with six, and Ridley has converted three of them for touchdowns.
  • Julio Jones dropped a perfectly thrown TD pass from Russell Gage last week on his way to just 2/24 receiving in a game in which the Falcons scored 39 points. Jones had seen 7+ targets in 17 straight games before seeing just four targets last week.
  • Russell Gage is averaging 7.9 targets per game since the Falcons traded away Mohamed Sanu. Slot CB Buster Skrine has allowed 8/78 receiving on 12 targets so far.
  • Hayden Hurst had a nice bounce-back performance last week with 5/72/1 receiving on eight targets last week. The Bears have allowed 11+ FP to both T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram to start the season.
  • Todd Gurley is averaging fewer than 10 FPG through two games despite the Falcons ranking inside the top-five in yards per game (443.0). Gurley has yet to force a missed tackle on 36 touches. Ito Smith also saw two carries inside the 10-yard line last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Atlanta Falcons -3 (Best Bet)

Todd Gurley (Atl) over 14.5 carries (Best Bet)

Washington Football Team (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (1-1, 0-2), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Washington 19, Browns 26
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 7, 44 to 45
  • Weather: 77 degrees, clear, 10-15 mph
  • Washington Injuries to Watch: RG Brandon Scherff (MCL, IR), WR Steven Sims (toe), RT Morgan Moses (hip),
  • Browns Injuries to Watch: CB Denzel Ward (groin), DE Olivier Vernon (abdomen), CB Greedy Williams (shoulder), LB Mack Wilson (knee) DE Adrian Clayborn (hip), C J.C. Tretter (knee),

Washington Trends

  • The Football Team is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Washington is 4-1 toward overs in its last five games.
  • Dwayne Haskins is averaging just 12.8 FPG through two weeks. A more competent young QB Joe Burrow needed 61 attempts to get to 316 yards last week (5.2 YPA) against the Browns.
  • Terry McLaurin has 5+ catches and 60+ yards in four straight games with Haskins. Hollywood Brown went for 5/101 receiving against the Browns in Week 1 before A.J. Green posted an ugly 3/29 receiving on 13 targets in this matchup.
  • Logan Thomas saw another nine targets last week and he’s currently leading the Football Team with a 27% target share, but it didn’t mean much against the Cardinals in Week 2. He finished with a disappointing 4/26 receiving with Haskins missing a couple throws to the former college quarterback. Now is not the time to run away from Thomas as he still sits third at the position with his 27% target share, behind only Darren Waller and Hunter Henry. Thomas has two prime matchups against the Browns (most FPG) and the Ravens (6th-most) the next two weeks.
  • Peyton Barber went from 29 snaps in the season opener to just one snap in Week 2. Antonio Gibson played 65% of the snaps with 15 opportunities, and he’s now forced the most missed tackles per touch in the league at .36. He also ran 20 routes last week compared to eight in Week 1. The Browns have limited backs to just 3.0 YPC even with a matchup against the Ravens in Week 1.

Browns Trends

  • The Browns will have up to 6,000 fans in attendance this week.
  • The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • Cleveland has played over the total in four straight games as a favorite.
  • The Browns didn’t cover in Week 2 against the Bengals, but they dominated the game by holding a massive 3.5-yards-per-play advantage (7.5 to 4.0).
  • Nick Chubb posted 22/124/2 rushing and he added a nine-yard catch on 62% of the snaps last week while Kareem Hunt finished with 10/86/1 rushing and 2/15/1 receiving on 34% of the snaps. Chubb and Hunt will have a tougher task going against Washington’s front four in Week 3, but the game script should work in their favor once again. The Football Team is allowing the second-fewest FPG (13.7) to RBs so far.
  • Hunt has seen double-digit carries in each of the first two games, something he never did last season.
  • The effective rushing attack from Chubb and Hunt opened things up for Baker Mayfield and this passing attack as Odell Beckham got loose for a touchdown off of play-action. DeAndre Hopkins posted 8/68/1 receiving against the Football Team last week.
  • Jarvis Landry has seen six or fewer targets in three straight games after seeing seven or more targets in 16 of his 18 previous games playing with Mayfield. Jimmy Moreland has allowed 7/38 receiving out of the slot to open the year.
  • Austin Hooper has managed just 4/37 receiving in his first two games with the Browns as he’s been a complete afterthought in this offense.
  • Baker Mayfield finished as the QB20 last week with 16.3 FPG despite completing 69.6% of his passes and averaging 9.5 YPA. The Football Team’s front four should force Mayfield to throw it more than 23 times like he did last week, but the Browns still figure to play in a positive game script as touchdown home favorites.

Brolley’s Bets

Cleveland Browns -7 (Staff Pick Lean)

Terry McLaurin (Was) over 58.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tennessee Titans (2-0, 0-2 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2, 0-2), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Titans 26.5, Vikings 23.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 47 to 49.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Titans Injuries to Watch: WR A.J. Brown (knee), CB Malcolm Butler (quad), CB Chris Jackson (hamstring), CB Johnathan Joseph (calf/illness)
  • Vikings Injuries to Watch: LB Anthony Barr (pec, IR), LB Troy Dye (foot, IR), CB Cam Dantzler (rib), CB Mike Hughes (neck), OT Riley Reiff (ankle)

Titans Trends

  • The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
  • The Titans are 11-4 toward overs in their last 15 games.
  • The Titans and the Bears are the only teams that have yet to find the end zone on the ground, which is stunning with Derrick Henry in the backfield. He’s still seen a league-best 59 touches but he failed to catch a pass last week. The Vikings are giving up 140.0 rushing yards and 1.0 rushing TDs per game to RBs so far.
  • What more does Ryan Tannehill have to do to be rostered in the majority of leagues? The Vikings have a bad defense right now and Tannehill has two performances of 19+ FP to start the year. He’s now averaging 20.1 FPG in 14 regular-season starts, and the Vikings are allowing 289 passing yards and 2.5 passing TDs per game so far.
  • Tannehill spread the rock around last week without A.J. Brown as Adam Humphries led the way with six targets while Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith each saw five looks. Davis is sitting at a 20.4% target share and the Vikings are giving up the second-most FPG to WRs through two weeks with 53.0.
  • Jonnu has a 19.4% target share after seeing just a 12% share last season. He needs just one more touchdown to set a new career-best mark for a season. The Vikings just allowed 5/111 receiving to Mo Alie-Cox last week.

Vikings Trends

  • The Vikings won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
  • The Vikings lost by 17 points last week and it could’ve been much worse if the Colts hadn’t settled for four field goals.
  • Kirk Cousins had a 0.0 passer rating deep into the third quarter last week and he finished with a 4.3 YPA average and three INTs. Gardner Minshew carved up the Titans for 339/3 passing last week.
  • Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson are the only players to see more than a 30% target share in both games to start this year, but the problem is Cousins has attempted 51 passes so far. The Titans have allowed the 16th-most FPG (35.1) to WRs in the early going.
  • Minnesota has run 49.0 plays per game, the second-fewest in the league, which has crushed everyone in this offense, including Dalvin Cook. He’s scraped together usable fantasy performances thanks to three touchdowns, but he has just 26/113 rushing and 3/6 receiving so far. James Robinson and Melvin Gordon have each scored 16+ FP against the Titans this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Tennessee Titans -2.5 (Staff Pick lean)

Kirk Cousins (Min) under 254.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Las Vegas Raiders (2-0, 2-0 ATS) at New England Patriots (1-1, 1-1), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Raiders 21, Patriots 26.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 47 to 47.5
  • Weather: 77 degrees, partly cloudy, 10 mph
  • Raiders Injuries to Watch: RB Josh Jacobs (hip), TE Darren Waller (knee), WR Henry Ruggs (knee/hamstring), OT Trent Brown (calf), OG Richie Incognito (Achilles), LB Nick Kwiatkoski (pec) WR Bryan Edwards (foot), OG Denzelle Good (thumb/illness)
  • Patriots Injuries to Watch: RB James White (personal), WR Julian Edelman (knee), WR N’Keal Harry (ankle), C David Andrews (hand), DL Adam Butler (shoulder), LB Brandon Copeland (knee)

Raiders Trends

  • The Raiders are on a four-game ATS winning streak
  • Las Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.
  • The Raiders are 6-2 toward unders in their last eight games.
  • Josh Jacobs is tied with Derrick Henry for the league-lead in touches with 59, including seven catches on nine targets. The Raiders have avoided negative game scripts through two weeks but they enter this week as six-point road underdogs.
  • Darren Waller saw 16 targets last week, which was 13 more targets than his next closest teammates (Hunter Renfrow and Jacobs) last week. He’s now leading all TEs with a 39% target share. The Patriots have allowed 4/39 receiving to TEs through two games.
  • The Patriots allowed the same number of touchdown passes to WRs last week (4) against the Seahawks as they did to all WRs over 16 games last season.
  • Derek Carr’s average air yards on his throws are shorter this year (6.7) so far than last year (6.9) despite adding Henry Ruggs. He has completed more than 73% of his passes and he has averaged more than 7.4 YPA in each game. Carr is still tough to trust this week with no Raiders WRs stepping up in the early going. The group has seen just 19 targets through two games, and the Patriots still have one of the more formidable secondaries despite getting the lashing Russell Wilson and company gave them last week.

Patriots Trends

  • The Patriots won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Patriots are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games.
  • New England is 5-2 toward under in its last seven home games.
  • Cam Newton and Ezekiel Elliott have the most carries inside the 10-yard line with nine. Cam’s four rushing TDs are the most by a quarterback through two weeks. Newton attempted 44 passes last week after throwing it just 19 times in Week 1. The Patriots project to be in a positive game script this week, which should keep the passing volume down this week.
  • Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry have each seen a team-best 18 targets so far but, in a bit of a twist, Edelman’s aDOT is sitting at 12.9 yards while Harry’s aDOT is 5.5.
  • Edelman posted a career-high 179 yards last week in a shootout last week, and he had 5/57 receiving in a positive game script in Week 1. Harry has caught 5+ passes in each of the first two games after never reaching four catches in a game as a rookie.
  • Sony Michel is averaging just 3.3 YPC with one TD while Rex Burkhead is averaging 2.6 YPC. This week’s projected game script is also not conducive for a player like James White if he plays this week after his family tragedy.

Brolley’s Bets

New England Patriots -5 (Staff Pick Lean)

San Francisco 49ers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at New York Giants (0-2, 1-1), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: 49ers 22.75, Giants 18.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 4, 40.5 to 41.5
  • Weather: 75 degrees, mostly cloudy, 5 mph
  • 49ers Injuries to Watch: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (high-ankle), RB Tevin Coleman (knee, IR), RB Raheem Mostert (knee), TE George Kittle (knee), DE Nick Bosa (knee, IR), DE Solomon Thomas (knee, IR), DL Dee Ford (back), LB Dre Greenlaw (quad)
  • Giants Injuries to Watch: RB Saquon Barkley (ACL, IR), WR Sterling Shepard (toe, IR)

49ers Trends

  • The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
  • San Francisco is 8-3-1 toward overs in its last 12 games as a favorite.
  • The 49ers stayed in the Eastern Time Zone this week for their second straight game against a New York squad as they spent this past week at The Greenbrier in West Virginia.
  • Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson are likely to split up most of the work in the 49ers backfield this week. McKinnon has just nine touches in two games, but he’s turned them into an impressive 121/2 scrimmage. 49ers RBs have seen a league-high 37% target share through two weeks. Wilson is likely to see most of the early-down work, and he’s scored four times on six goal-line carries last season. David Montgomery went for 21.7 FPG against the Giants last week.
  • Nick Mullens will get the start for Jimmy G this week. He averaged 8.3 YPA with 13 TDs and 10 INTs while averaging 284.6 passing yards per game as an eight-game starter in 2018.
  • The problem is he could be working with absolutely no receivers to speak of as San Fran’s WRs have combined for just 12/139/0 receiving through two games.
  • Jordan Reed saw a promising 46% snap share in a blowout victory, which was way better than anticipated, and he saw a team-high eight targets. Mullens leaned heavily on George Kittle when he was the starter for eight games back in 2018. Kittle averaged 6.4/99.1/.4 receiving per game on 9.9 targets with Mullens. It wouldn’t be surprising if the 49ers holdout Kittle this week because of their concerns about the MetLife Stadium playing surface.

Giants Trends

  • The Giants won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Giants are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
  • The Giants are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games and they’re 4-1 toward overs in their last five home games.
  • New York lost Saquon Barkley to a torn ACL last week and they’ll now be rolling with a combination of Dion Lewis, Devonta Freeman, and Wayne Gallman this week. The 49ers are allowing just 3.6 YPC through two weeks but they lost both Nick Bosa (ACL) and Solomon Thomas (ACL) last week.
  • The Giants could be forced to throw more going forward with Saquon out of the lineup, and this 49ers defense is attackable now with their pass rush and secondary injuries. Daniel Jones had two brutal scheduling spots to start the season but he has some hope this week after averaging 14.1 FPG in his first two games. Jones won’t have both Barkley and Sterling Shepard (toe, IR) this week, leaving this passing attack in the hands of Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, and Golden Tate.
  • Engram had just 2/9 receiving on eight targets through the first six quarters of the season before awakening in the second half last week with 6/65 receiving on seven targets against the Bears. He still leads all TEs in routes run (84) and he’s going to see more work while Shepard is out of the lineup. The 49ers stifled TEs last season (5th-fewest FPG allowed) and they’ve to be tested this season against teams that don’t use TEs in the passing game in the Jets and the Cardinals.
  • Golden Tate made his season debut last week after a hamstring injury sidelined him for the season opener. He managed 5/47 receiving with 4/35 coming in the second half after Shepard left. K’Waun Williams has allowed just 5/23 receiving out of the slot through two games.
  • Slayton came crashing back to earth last week with 3/33 receiving against the Bears after posting 28+ FP against the Steelers in Week 1. Richard Sherman is out of the lineup and the Jets picked on Ahkello Witherspoon last week as he allowed 5/81/1 receiving last week.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Giants -4 (Staff Pick Lean)

Nick Mullens (SF) under 252.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Darius Slayton (NYG) over 42.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Jordan Reed (SF) under 51.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-2, 0-2), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bengals 21.25, Eagles 25.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6 to 4.5, 46 to 47
  • Weather: 75 degrees, mostly cloudy, 5 mph
  • Bengals Injuries to Watch: DT Geno Atkins (shoulder), DT Mike Daniels (groin), S Shawn Williams (calf)
  • Eagles Injuries to Watch: WR Jalen Reagor (thumb, IR), WR Alshon Jeffery (foot), DT Fletcher Cox (abdomen)

Bengals Trends

  • The Bengals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Cincinnati is 5-1 toward overs in its last six games.
  • The Bengals have lost 15 straight road games.
  • Cincinnati ran 88 plays last week against the Browns.
  • Joe Burrow showed a lot of fight in Week 2 with 316/3 passing on 61 attempts against the Browns. He’s averaging just 5.3 YPA but he’s added 65/1 rushing to boost his production. The Eagles just got torched for 267/3 passing against Jared Goff last week.
  • A.J. Green is healthy for now, but he hasn’t looked like the same, explosive player we last saw back in 2018. Burrow targeted Green a team-high 13 times (21.3% target share) in Week 2, but the 32-year-old receiver managed an ugly 3/29 receiving on 45 routes (.64 yards per route run). Green failed to create much separation as NFL Next Gen had him at just 1.6 yards for his average separation in Week 2.
  • Green is tied with Ridley for the league lead in end-zone targets with six. Green has yet to score while Ridley has converted three of them for touchdowns.
  • Green is getting plenty of opportunities right now, but Burrow may start to turn to Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins more in the near future if Green continues his lackluster play. Higgins played the second-most snaps behind Boyd last week.
  • Green caught just 23% of his targets last week while Boyd and Burrow should’ve been perfect against the Browns if not for a dropped touchdown pass from Boyd. The pair still connect seven times for 72 yards and a touchdown. Boyd should benefit from Darius Slay liking lining up on A.J. Green.
  • Joe Mixon has just six targets on 46 routes while Gio Bernard has 12 targets on 43 routes, which is notable since the Bengals are likely to be playing from behind again this week. He at least has 20 touches in each game for 157 scrimmage yards

Eagles Trends

  • The Eagles won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Philly is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.
  • The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
  • Philly is 7-1 toward unders in its last eight home games.
  • The Eagles are one of three teams (Jets, Texans) to lose both games by double digits
  • They’re also 2-0 toward overs after allowing 64 points to start the year.
  • Miles Sanders saw a career-high 27 opportunities in Week 2 while playing 78% of the snaps. The Bengals have allowed 385 scrimmage yards and five TDs to RBs through two games.
  • Carson Wentz simply isn’t playing well enough in the early going with his 58.8 completion percentage and his four INTs through two games. He’s also averaging just 6.0 YPA. He’ll now have to play without his rookie WR Jalen Reagor (thumb, IR). The Bengals have been gashed on the ground as they’re allowing just 213.5 passing yards per game and one passing TD per game.
  • DeSean Jackson owns a healthy 19.5% target share through two weeks, which he’s turned into 8/110 receiving. He also has a DOT of 17.6 yards so maybe he can hit a big with Reagor out of the lineup.
  • Zach Ertz edged out Dallas Goedert in FP last week (9.2 to 7.0), but Goedert saw more targets than him for the second straight game. Goedert and Ertz have combined for a 37% target share and they figure to stay heavily involved with Reagor out of the lineup. The Bengals kept Austin Hooper in check last week (2/22 receiving) while Hunter Henry had 5/73 receiving in Week 1.

Brolley’s Bets

Cincinnati Bengals +5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Zach Ertz (Phi) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Houston Texans (0-2, 0-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0, 1-1), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Texans 20.5, Steelers 24.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 5.5 to 4,
  • Weather: 75, partly cloudy, 5-10 mph
  • Texans Injuries to Watch: WR Brandin Cooks (quad), RB Duke Johnson (ankle), OT Laremy Tunsil (elbow)
  • Steelers Injuries to Watch: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee)

Texans Trends

  • The Texans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games.
  • Houston is 4-1 toward unders in its last five road games.
  • The Texans are one of three teams (Eagles, Jets) to lose both games by double digits.
  • Deshaun Watson gets another difficult matchup to start the year, this time against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has allowed multiple TD passes to both Daniel Jones and Jeff Driskel this season while Watson has yet to reach 2+ TD passes in a game.
  • Will Fuller’s hamstring was barking once again last week, but he played through the issue last week. Unfortunately, he didn’t see a target on 27 routes last week after posting 8/112 receiving on 11 targets on 32 routes in Week 1. Darius Slayton posted 6/102/2 receiving against the Steelers in Week 1 while Courtland Sutton had 3/66 receiving before he tore his ACL.
  • Brandin Cooks bounced back in Week 2 for 5/95 receiving on eight targets with Fuller ailing against the Ravens. Randall Cobb is leading these WRs with 67 routes run on Watson’s 86 dropbacks with Cooks (60) and Fuller (59) behind him.
  • Jordan Akins leads the Texans in route run this year with 70, which has helped him to 11+ FP in both games. The Steelers limited Evan Engram to 2/9 receiving in Week 1 before Noah Fant posted 4/57/1 receiving in Week 2.
  • David Johnson played on 95% of the snaps last week with Duke Johnson out of the lineup with an ankle injury, but he managed just 50 scrimmage yards on 15 opportunities after posting 109/1 scrimmage on 15 opportunities in the season opener. The Steelers are allowing 2.6 YPC so far but Saquon Barkley and Melvin Gordon have each gone for 9+ FP in both games against the Steelers.

Steelers Trends

  • The Steelers won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • James Conner went off for 20.1 FP on plenty of fantasy benches in Week 2 after the Steelers benched their starting RB for Benny Snell in Week 1 because of his sluggish performance against the Giants. Conner handled 77% of the snaps while Snell saw just 15% and Jaylen Samuels played on 8% of the snaps. Snell also fumbled for the second straight game last week as he lost his fumble against the Broncos. Conner should see a healthy dose of carries this week with RG David DeCastro back in the lineup against a Texans defense that’s allowing 6.3 YPC to opposing RBs.
  • The Texans’ poor run defense has limited the production for both Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson through two weeks with Houston allowing 207.5 passing yards per game through two games. Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 270 passing yards per game and 7.4 YPA and he’s thrown for five TDs in the early going.
  • Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen are the only players to see more than a 30% target share in both games to start this year. Diontae has quickly become the team’s #1 WR over JuJu Smith-Schuster with his 31.5% target share through two games after posting 8/92/1 receiving on 13 targets against the Broncos in Week 3. JuJu has been the second option but he’s still posted two TDs and 13 catches through two weeks.
  • Johnson has made a handful of mistakes too in the early going, including a fumble on a handoff on the first play of the game, but the Steelers are still doing everything they possibly can to get the ball in their best playmaker’s hands. The Texans have held both Tyreek Hill and Marquise Brown to under 50 receiving yards.
  • Eric Ebron saw his usage rise in Week 2 from 1/18 receiving on two targets in the season opener to 3/43 receiving on five targets last week. The Texans limited Mark Andrews to a 29-yard catch on three targets last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (Staff Pick Leans)

Jordan Akins (Hou) over 25.5 (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

New York Jets (0-2, 0-2 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1, 1-1), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Jets 16.5, Colts 28
  • Spread/Total Movements: 9.5 to 11.5, 43.5 to 44.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Jets Injuries to Watch: WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring), WR Breshad Perriman (ankle), C Connor McGovern (hamstring), LT Mekhi Becton (shoulder), WR Chris Hogan (rib), RT George Fant (concussion), S Ashyton Davis (groin)
  • Colts Injuries to Watch: TE Jack Doyle (knee), Rock Ya-Sin (non-injury), S Julian Blackmon (knee)

Jets Trends

  • The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • New York is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games
  • The Jets are 5-1 toward unders in their six games.
  • The Jets are one of three teams (Eagles, Texans) to lose both games by double digits.
  • Sam Darnold is averaging just 5.9 YPA and he’s yet to throw for multiple TDs in a game this season. Kirk Cousins had a 0.0 passer rating deep into the third quarter against the Colts last week.
  • Frank Gore played 37 snaps and had 21 touches, which he turned into 63 yards against the 49ers. The Colts are allowing just 71.0 rushing yards per game to back so far.
  • It’s looking like Jamison Crowder (hamstring) and Breshad Perriman (ankle) will both miss this week. Chris Hogan and Braxton Berrios will be the top options at WR. Hogan posted 6/75 receiving on eight targets last week while Berrios hung 6/59/1 on eight targets against the 49ers.
  • Can the Jets just fire Adam Gase and be done with it already. He’s currently using his best available receiver as a blocker last week. He’s run just 43 routes on 73 Darnold dropbacks (58.9%), which he’s turned into just 7/42 receiving on 11 targets.

Colts Trends

  • The Colts will have up to 7,5000 fans in attendance this week.
  • Indy is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games
  • The Colts are 7-3 toward overs in their last 10 games as a favorite.
  • Jonathan Taylor saw a 67% snap share in his first start, and he had 24 carries through the first three quarters last week. New York has been a pass-funnel defense over the last season-plus, but they’re even starting to get gashed by long runs after the 49ers ripped off several big runs last week — San Francisco RBs finished with 27/184/2 rushing. The Colts threw it just 38% of the time in their dominant victory over the Vikings last week.
  • OC Nick Sirianni said this week that they need to get the ball to Nyheim Hines after he saw just one touch last week. Hines saw just nine snaps with the Colts playing in an extremely positive game script, which they could get again this week as 10+ point favorites.
  • Philip Rivers is averaging just 14.3 FPG through two weeks. The Jets gave up 30+ FP to Josh Allen in Week 1, and the Colts and Rivers could have murdered the Vikings last week if they didn’t settle for four field goals against the Vikings.
  • T.Y. Hilton is off to a slow start this year after dropping a 44-yard touchdown last week. He’s still seeing a 20% target share and now Parris Campbell will be out of the mix.
  • Michael Pittman saw the highest snap share (92%) and he ran the most routes (26) of any Colts WR last week.
  • Mo Alie-Cox saw more than five targets for the first time in his career and he turned those looks into 5/111 receiving against the Vikings. He also played on 66% of the snaps with two red-zone targets. Jack Doyle has just one career 100-yard game despite seeing 5+ targets in a game 30 different times. The Jets defense just allowed two touchdowns to Jordan Reed last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Indianapolis Colts -9.5 (Best Bet/Opening Line Report Pick)

Carolina Panthers (0-2, 0-2 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1, 2-0), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Panthers 18.75, Chargers 25.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 7 to 6.5, 44.5 to 44
  • Weather: Dome
  • Panthers Injuries to Watch: RB Christian McCaffrey (ankle, IR), DT Kawann Short (foot), OT Russell Okung (groin)
  • Chargers Injuries to Watch: QB Tyrod Taylor (lung), DE Melvin Ingram (knee, doubtful), OT Bryan Bulaga (knee), RB Justin Jackson (quad), DT Justin Jones (shoulder), S Rayshawn Jenkins (groin)

Panthers Trends

  • The Panthers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Panthers have lost six consecutive road games with a 1-5 ATS record in those games.
  • Carolina is 7-1 toward overs in its last eight games.
  • Teddy Bridgewater completed a healthy 78.6% of his passes last week for 8.7 YPA but his two INTs did the Panthers in against the Bucs. The Chargers held Patrick Mahomes in check last week as he needed 47 attempts to get to 302 yards (6.4 YPA).
  • Christian McCaffrey landed on the IR with a high-ankle sprain, which likely leaves a bell-cow role for Mike Davis for at least the next three weeks. Davis had a 20% target share with eight targets when he entered Week 2 in a negative game script. The Panthers enter this week as touchdown underdogs. The Chargers held CEH to 3.8 YPC last week and Joe Mixon to 3.6 YPC in Week 1.
  • D.J. Moore has seen a 29% target share through two weeks but he’s yet to find the end zone so far. He has just six career TDs on 239 targets, and the Chargers have allowed just one WR TD through two weeks.
  • Robby Anderson has 15/223/1 receiving in his first two games since breaking free from Adam Gase’s cold grip. His aDOT sits at 9.9 yards so Joe Brady is using him all over the field unlike who used him strictly as a deep threat with his 13.5 aDOT last season.
  • Keep an eye on Curtis Samuel this week since they could use him as a part-time back this week with CMC out of the lineup. The Panthers have just Trenton Cannon behind Davis, and Samuel had 4/26 rushing last week and he was a prolific runner at Ohio State.

Chargers Trends

  • The Chargers won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Los Angeles is 4-1 toward overs in its last five games but 7-1 toward unders in its last eight home games.
  • Justin Herbert’s time has come much sooner than anticipated after Tyrod Taylor had his lung punctured in a medical mishap before Week 2. He acquitted himself well with 311/1 passing and 18/1 rushing against the Chiefs. The Panthers will be fully prepared for Herbert this week but the Chargers figure to be able to do whatever they want on the ground this week.
  • The Chargers have run the ball on 55.3% of their plays, the second-highest rate. Rookie Joshua Kelley isn’t going anywhere after he finished with 23/64 rushing and 2/49 receiving with Justin Jackson out of the lineup. The Panthers have allowed six rushing TDs to RBs already.
  • After catching just one pass playing with Taylor in Week 1, Austin Ekeler finished with 16/93 rushing and a promising 4/55 receiving on four targets playing with Herbert last week. He leads the league in missed tackles so far with 11 and he’s averaging 120.9 scrimmage yards.
  • A potential lack of passing volume is the concern for every Chargers receiver this week, including Keenan Allen. He finished with 7/96 receiving on 10 targets from Herbert against the Chiefs last week, a game after he managed just 4/37 receiving on eight targets with Taylor.
  • It’s just one game, but Mike Williams saw his target share drop from 31% with Tyrod in Week 1 to 13% with Herbert last week.
  • While Keenan and Williams flipped roles in Week 1, Hunter Henry’s role stayed the same with Herbert. He’s seen eight targets and he’s scored 12+ FP in each game so far. The Buccaneers underutilized TEs managed just 1/11 against the Panthers last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Carolina Panthers +6.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Austin Ekeler (LAC) over 60.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Detroit Lions (0-2, 0-2 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0, 2-0), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Lions 25.25, Cardinals 30.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6 to 5.5, 54.5 to 56
  • Weather: Dome
  • Lions Injuries to Watch: WR Kenny Golladay (hamstring), CB Desmond Trufant (hamstring), OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai (foot), TE Hunter Bryant (hamstring), DT Nick Williams (shoulder)
  • Cardinals Injuries to Watch: WR Christian Kirk (groin), TE Maxx Williams (ankle, IR), DE Jordan Phillips (ankle)

Lions Trends

  • The Lions are riding an 11-game losing streak dating back to last season, and they’ve now blown seven different double-digit leads in that same span after the Packers overcame a 14-3 deficit last week.
  • The Lions 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • Detroit is 4-1 toward overs in its last five games.
  • Kenny Golladay should be ready to make his 2020 debut this week for Detroit’s road trip to Arizona. He posted 4/42/1 receiving in this matchup in the season opener last year, and Terry McLaurin just roasted Patrick Peterson and company for 7/125/1 receiving.
  • Matthew Stafford could certainly use a healthy Golladay as he’s averaging 17.2 FPG through two weeks. Stafford’s average air yards per attempt is sitting at 9.1 yards through two games without Golladay after sitting at 10.7 yards with Golladay last season. The Lions passing attack should challenge a Cardinals secondary for the first time after they faced Dwayne Haskin in Week 2 and a 49ers team that didn’t have a viable WR in Week 1.
  • T.J. Hockenson has seen an extremely disappointing 13% target share while Golladay has been out. The Cardinals were the worst at defending tight ends last season, but they’ve allowed just 11/84 receiving on 17 targets.
  • Marvin Jones underwhelmed as the top perimeter option while Golladay was out of the lineup, combining for just 8/78/1 receiving on 14 targets. Jones caught all four of his targets for 56 yards in this matchup last season.
  • D’Andre Swift has as many carries as he does catches with eight each. He’s seen 15 more snaps than Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson so far this season thanks to a negative game script last week, which he could get again this week.

Cardinals Trends

  • The Cardinals will allow 750 fans to attend this week.
  • The Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Cardinals are 5-2 toward unders in their last seven games.
  • Arizona has run a whopping 155 plays in its first two games of the season (77.5 plays per game), which is second in the league.
  • Kyler Murray has been the league’s most dynamic running QB through two weeks with 158/3 rushing. The Lions have allowed five touchdown passes and 38 rushing yards so far to Mitch Trubisky and Aaron Rodgers.
  • DeAndre Hopkins has 22/219/1 receiving through two weeks and he’s seen a league-high 26 targets. The Lions secondary is battling through some injuries and they lucked out with Davante Adams playing at less than 100% last week.
  • Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald have combined for just 14/141 receiving so far on 21 targets as they’re distant secondary options behind Nuk.
  • Kenyan Drake had a tough opening schedule against the 49ers and the Football Team but his schedule will open up starting this week against a Lions defense that just allowed 22/236/3 scrimmage to Aaron Jones.

Brolley’s Bets

Detroit Lions +5.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Kyle Murray (Ari) under 280.5 (Best Bet)

Dan Arnold (Ari) under 30.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Dan Arnold (Ari) under 2.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at Denver Broncos (0-2, 2-0), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bucs 24.25, Broncos 18.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 43.5 to 42.5
  • Weather: 65 degrees, partly cloudy, 15 mph
  • Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: WR Justin Watson (shoulder), WR Scotty Miller (hip/groin), LT Donovan Smith (knee), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee)
  • Broncos Injuries to Watch: RB Phillip Lindsay (toe), QB Drew Lock (shoulder, out), WR Courtland Sutton (ACL, IR), DL DeMarcus Walker (calf), WR Jerry Jeudy (ribs), DE Shelby Harris (neck)

Buccaneers Trends

  • The Buccaneers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • Tampa has played over the total in 14 of its last 16 games.
  • Tom Brady is 4-7 in his career playing in Denver (including playoffs), his worst record on the road against any team. He’s averaging 6.4 YPA so far after averaging 6.6 YPA in his final season in New England. The Broncos are allowing 280.0 passing yards per game and 2.0 TDs per game to Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger.
  • Mike Evans bounced back last week with 7/104/1 receiving on 10 targets against the Panthers. Perimeter WRs Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool combined 11/180/2 receiving last week.
  • Chris Godwin missed Week 2 with a concussion after being the top receiver in Week 1 with 6/79 receiving on seven targets against the Saints. JuJu Smith-Schuster posted 7/48 receiving on eight targets against the Broncos last week.
  • Bruce Arians’ offenses have never really thrown to tight ends and we’re getting a lesson in it once again this season. He has arguably the best tight end of all time, and Rob Gronkowski has just four targets on 33 routes despite playing on 73% of the snaps through two games. Gronk is a glorified third tackle right now.
  • It didn’t take long for the Buccaneers to have a changing of the guard in their backfield. Leonard Fournette had 16/116 scrimmage on 26 snaps in Week 2 while Ronald Jones posted 9/27 scrimmage on 21 snaps. Fournette also ran more routes (12 to 10). The Broncos are giving up 4.5 YPC and both Derrick Henry and James Conner went for 100+ rushing yards.

Broncos Trends

  • The Broncos will allow 5,700 fans to attend Sunday’s game.
  • The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Denver is 8-2 toward unders in its last 10 games as a home underdog.
  • Melvin Gordon played on 79% of the snaps with Phillip Lindsay (toe) out of the lineup last week, and he turned his 21 touches into 84/1 scrimmage. The Bucs are once again swallowing up opposing runnings as they’re allowing just 2.6 YPC, but they’ve been gashed for the most RB receiving production. They’re allowing 9.0/84.0/.5 receiving per game to opposing RBs so far but it should be noted they went up against Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara.
  • Jeff Driskel will start while Drew Lock misses a couple of weeks with a shoulder injury. Driskel averaged more than 50 rushing yards per game in three starts for the Lions last year. He also averaged 9.3 air yards on his passes last year and he averaged 13.2 filling in for Lock last week. The problem is he’s completing 58.7% of his passes for just 6.2 YPA despite the deep shots.
  • K.J. Hamler should get some chances for some big plays. He has an aDOT sitting at 16.6 yards after seeing a team-high target share (17.9%). Hamler also ran the most routes (32) of any Broncos WR in Week 2.
  • Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant will be in line for increased roles with Courtland Sutton (ACL) and his 7.0 targets per game from 2019 out of the lineup, but Driskel’s presence at quarterback will limit their upside. Jeudy has already seen a promising 15 targets in his first two games, and he has WR2 potential going forward if the rookie can clean up his drops. Fant has already posted 9/138/2 receiving on 11 targets in his first two games, and he has the potential to stick in the top half of the TE1 class.

Brolley’s Bets

Denver Broncos +6 (Staff Pick Lean)

Chris Godwin (TB) over 58.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Jerry Jeudy (Den) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Dallas Cowboys (1-1, 0-2 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0, 2-0), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 26, Seahawks 31
  • Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 5, 55.5 to 57
  • Weather: 65 degrees, partly cloudy, light winds
  • Cowboys Injuries to Watch: CB Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring), CB Trevon Diggs (shoulder), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (knee), LT Tyron Smith (neck)
  • Seahawks Injuries to Watch: Slot CB Marquise Blair (knee, IR), WR Phillip Dorsett (foot, IR), LB Bruce Irvin (knee, IR), OT Duane Brown (knee/foot), CB Quinton Dunbar (knee)

Cowboys Trends

  • The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games
  • Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.
  • Ezekiel Elliott and Cam Newton have the most carries inside the 10-yard line with nine. The Seahawks have faced just Todd Gurley and Sony Michel so they’ll get their first real test against Zeke, who is currently the RB4 with 25.5 FPG.
  • Dak Prescott posted three rushing TDs in the Cowboys’ improbable comeback victory last week. The Seahawks have allowed 423.5 passing yards per game and 23.0/1.0 rushing per game to QBs (Matt Ryan and Cam Newton) so far.
  • CeeDee Lamb has 15 targets to Michael Gallup’s 10 targets in the early going. Lamb needed just two games to notch his first 100-yard game. The Seahawks have allowed 13/151/1 receiving out of the slot through two games.
  • Gallup has seen a 12% target share in 2020 after seeing a 19% share last season without Lamb in the fold. He’s still seeing a 29% air yards share and he did have a massive gain wiped out late in Week 1, which would make his numbers look much better. Perimeter WRs Damiere Byrd and N’Keal Harry combined for 14/144 receiving last week on 21 targets.
  • Amari Cooper is leading this receiving corps with a 29% target share and a 38% air yards share. The Seahawks have allowed four different WRs to post 20+ FP in the first two games of the season.
  • Dalton Schultz finished with a team-best 10 targets for 9/88/1 receiving to finish as the TE7 with 22.8 FPG last week. He doesn’t have an easy matchup going against the Seahawks and Jamal Adams this week, but at least Seattle and Dallas project to play in a shootout this week.

Seahawks Trends

  • The Seahawks won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Seattle is 3-1-1 toward overs in its last five games.
  • Russell Wilson is the fourth player since the merger to throw at least nine touchdown passes over the first two weeks of the season. Drew Brees (2009), Peyton Manning (2013), and Patrick Mahomes (2018) were the others to do it. He’s averaging a silly 9.7 YPA while the Cowboys are allowing 7.9 YPA in the early going.
  • D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have seen 48% of the targets and a ridiculous 80% of the air yards in the early going. Metcalf now has 80+ yards and a TD in four of his last five games (including the playoffs) while Lockett has 17+ FP in four of his last five games in that same span.
  • The Cowboys are dealing with cluster injuries at CB with Anthony Brown (ribs, IR), CB Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring), and CB Trevon Diggs (shoulder) each banged up.
  • Chris Carson saw his snap share rise from 45% to 64% last week and he saw his carries rise from six to 17 last week. He caught his third touchdown pass in just two games after previously having three touchdown catches in his first 33 career games. The Cowboys have actually faced the most RB carries per game with opponents averaging 32.5/110.5/1.0 rushing per game.

Brolley’s Bets

Dallas Cowboys +5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers (2-0, 2-0 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (1-1, 1-1), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Packers 25, Saints 28
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3, 51.5 to 53
  • Weather: Dome
  • Packers Injuries to Watch: WR Davante Adams (hamstring), DL Kenny Clark (groin)
  • Saints Injuries to Watch: WR Michael Thomas (ankle), OT Terron Armstead (groin), DT Malcom Brown (foot), DE Marcus Davenport (elbow), DE Trey Hendrickson (groin)

Packers Trends

  • Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
  • The Packers are on a four-game run toward overs.
  • Green Bay has opened with 40+ points in their first two games, and their games have averaged 70 points so far.
  • Aaron Jones is the RB1 through the first two games with 31.6 FPG. Jones did whatever he wanted against the Lions as he finished with 18/168/2 rushing and 4/68/1 receiving on eight targets. Aaron Rodgers needed Jones more than usual with Davante Adams in and out of the lineup with separate ankle and hamstring issues. Jones figures to stay heavily involved going forward but his role could be massive this week if Adams can’t go against the Saints. The Saints have allowed just 3.4 YPC but Jones has seen 14 targets already.
  • Aaron Rodgers got bit by the Adams injury last week, but he still posted a respectable 240/2 passing in their blowout victory over the Lions. The Saints have been surprisingly generous to opposing QBs in the early going with both Tom Brady and Derek Carr posting 22 FP against them.
  • Adams had an injury-marred Week 2 after he roasted the Vikings for 40+ FP in the season opener. He initially had his ankle rolled up on early the game before later coming up lame with a hamstring issue later in the game after he returned to the lineup. Adams has a difficult matchup looming against Marshon Lattimore and the Saints, which he’ll want to be on the field for in a key NFC matchup.
  • Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling would be Rodgers’ top options if Adams can’t play this week. MVS owns a 35% air yards share and a 19% target share while Lazard is sitting at a 17% air yards share and a 13% target share. They’ll be in tougher matchups if Adams is unable to play, but they’d also still see more targets if Adams is out of the picture.

Saints Trends

  • The Saints won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Saints 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and they’re 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite.
  • The Saints are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games
  • Drew Brees’ average of 5.2 air yards on passes is the lowest of any quarterback through two games after he sat at just 6.9 yards last season. He at least threw for 312 yards while averaging 8.2 YPA against the Raiders after posting 160 yards and 5.3 YPA against the Bucs in the season opener. The Packers have allowed two passing TDs in each of the first two games.
  • Alvin Kamara has four TDs on 39 touches this season after scoring just six times on 252 touches last season. He’s also leading all RBs in targets with 17. Green Bay has allowed three rushing TDs and 88 receiving yards to RBs so far.
  • Emmanuel Sanders didn’t have a catch until late in the fourth quarter last week even with Michael Thomas (high-ankle) out of the lineup. He’s now reached 65+ receiving yards twice in his last 13 games (playoffs included) since leaving the Broncos at midseason last year.
  • Tre’Quan Smith played 88% of the snaps and he saw seven targets in his first game without Thomas, posting 5/86 receiving. He’ll continue to be the top WR if Thomas misses again.
  • Jared Cook is still running hot with his TD production, scoring his 10th touchdown in 16 games with the Saints despite seeing just 77 targets. He disappointed otherwise with just 2/13/1 receiving on five targets without Thomas on the field. T.J. Hockenson posted 4/62 receiving against the Packers last week.

Brolley’s Bets

New Orleans Saints -3 (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.