Best Bets: Week 3


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Best Bets: Week 3

Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.

Tom Brolley

Game Picks

ATS Record: 8-6 (+.82 units); W3: 1-3 (-3.59 units)

Totals Record: 2-2 (+.05 units); W3: 1-1 (+.14 units)

Tennessee Titans (-2.5, DraftKings) at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings defense is off to a horrendous start through two weeks, and they’ve been absolutely decimated by injuries this week to make matters worse. They lost their defensive play-caller for the season with LB Anthony Barr tearing his pectoral muscle before losing his backup Troy Dye to a foot injury. They’ll also be down two CBs in Mike Hughes (neck) and Cameron Dantzler (ribs), which will help this matchup for Ryann Tannehill and company. I am a bit worried the Vikings could give their maximum effort with their season on the line with their 0-2 record, but it still might not be enough after watching their two lifeless performances to start the season. This spread is going to move into the 3-to-3.5 point range this weekend so let’s jump on this pick now. Risk one unit to win .91 units (Posted Sept. 25)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots (UNDER 48 points, DraftKings)

The Raiders and the Patriots rank in the bottom-11 of the league in offensive pace in neutral situations so far this season. They also rank in the top-six in offensive time of possession per drive so these offenses are controlling the rock and keeping opposing offenses off the field. The Raiders rank second in points per drive to start the year at 3.78, which they’re going to have a difficult time sustaining this week in New England. The Patriots also rank in the top of half of the league in points per drive. If these teams regress just a bit and kick a field goal or two instead of scoring touchdowns we should get an under here. I don’t agree with this total ticking upward a bit so I’m going to step in front of the movement and take the under for this contest. Risk one unit to win .91 units (Posted Sept. 24)

New Orleans Saints (-3, DraftKings) vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have been impressive in the early going, but they dominated two opponents I have power rated in the bottom-10 of the league. I have the Saints favored closer to four points this week so we have a small buying opportunity with New Orleans with the markets overreacting a bit to their loss to the Raiders last week. The Saints were humbled by the Raiders on Monday Night Football after having control of the game early and jumping out to a double-digit lead. I’m expecting a more focused effort for 60 minutes this week in an important early NFC battle. Risk one unit to win .91 units (Posted Sept. 24)

Atlanta Falcons (-3, DraftKings) vs. Chicago Bears

I’m going against my power rankings a bit with this pick. I’m siding with the desperate 0-2 team that’s stepping down in competition for the first time that is looking to salvage their season. And I’m taking the Falcons to beat the fraudulent 2-0 team that’s stepping up in competition for the first time who may not have the same sense of urgency this week. The Bears have won two coin flip games over the Lions and the Giants, but they’ve been outgained by 27 yards per game and by .2 yards per play so far this season. I am a bit worried about Julio Jones’ status with his hamstring injury, but I think there’s going to be a sense of urgency for him to play even if he’s not at 100%. The Falcons hung 39 points on the Cowboys last week with a limited Julio, anyway. His injury status has made this line fall by a half a point, which has presented a small buying opportunity with the Falcons -3. Risk 1.50 units to win 1.36 units (Posted Sept. 23)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills (OVER 46.5 points, FanDuel)

The Bills have put their offense in the hands of Josh Allen, and they’re spreading teams out and playing with pace just like they did at the end of last season. The Rams have always played with pace under Sean McVay and their offense has played well in the early going since they’re getting competent running back play once again. I think this total is going to skyrocket this week and it could push toward 50 points so get this over now before it crosses a few key numbers. Risk 1.25 units to win 1.14 units (Posted Sept. 21)

Indianapolis Colts (-9.5, DraftKings) vs. New York Jets

I gave out this wager in my Week 3 Opening Line Report. This line has already moved closer to double digits since going up Sunday night, and I think it’s only a matter of time before the Colts become 10-11 point favorites this week. I’m betting the Colts -9.5 now before the line moves even more because I haven’t seen any signs of life from this Jets team that looks to be just going through the motions with a lame-duck head coach. Risk one unit to win .91 units (Posted Sept. 21)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, DraftKings) vs. Miami Dolphins

I should’ve given this wager out in the Week 3 Opening Line Report, but I’m anticipating the Jaguars going off as 3-4 point home favorites on Thursday Night Football. Josh Allen just set single-game career highs in passing yards (417), touchdown passes (four), and passer rating (147.0) in the victory going against the Dolphins, who will likely be without top CB Byron Jones (groin) this week. Gardner Minshew is off to a strong start in his second season, and he’ll be licking his chops to throw against this secondary. Road teams playing on Thursday night are typically at a disadvantage so I’ll grab the Jaguars giving less than a field goal now. Risk one unit to win .88 units (Posted Sept. 21)

Player Props

Record: 29-15 (+12.44 units); W3: 12-3 (+8.75 units)

All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.

  • Myles Gaskin (Mia) over 16.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)

  • Kirk Cousins (Min) under 254.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Terry McLaurin (Was) over 58.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)

  • Zach Ertz (Phi) over 4.5 receptions (+125, DraftKings) (W)

  • Todd Gurley (Atl) over 14.5 carries (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • Kyle Murray (Ari) under 282.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)

  • Dan Arnold (Ari) under 30.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Dan Arnold (Ari) under 2.5 receptions (+124, DraftKings) (W)

  • Jordan Akins (Hou) over 25.5 (-106, BetMGM) (W)

  • Nick Mullens (SF) under 252.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • Austin Ekeler (LAC) over 60.5 rushing yards (-112, BetMGM) (L)

  • Darius Slayton (NYG) over 42.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)

  • Jordan Reed (SF) under 51.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)

  • Chris Godwin (TB) over 58.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Jerry Jeudy (Den) over 3.5 receptions (+110, DraftKings) (W)

  • Marquise Brown (Bal) over 51.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)