Each Monday morning during the season, I’ll preview three games with spread that I think will move by the end of the week. This article is designed to help you get the best odds possible by helping you to decide if you should place a bet early in the week or if you should wait to wager until closer to kickoff based on potential line movements. I’ll include any early week leans and wagers that I make in my write-ups.
Week 3 Opening Lines
Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook on Sunday night.
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots (-6.5)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
San Francisco (-4) at New York Giants
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Washington Football Team vs. Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3)
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts (-9)
Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Los Angeles Rams (2-0, 2-0 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0, 1-1)
Opening Line: Bills -3.5
Recent Results: The Rams are off to an impressive 2-0 start after going on the road and knocking off the Eagles 37-19 as two-point road underdogs. Jared Goff and Tyler Higbee connected for three touchdowns in the dominant victory. The Bills failed to cover as 5.5-point road favorites but they still beat the Dolphins 31-28 in a game that featured a 36-minute weather delay. Josh Allen set single-game career highs in passing yards (417), touchdown passes (four), and passer rating (147.0) in the victory.
Injuries/Developments to Follow: Due to the pandemic, the Rams changed their original travel plans for staying out on the East Coast in between Weeks 2-3 with games in Philly and Buffalo. The Rams traveled to Philadelphia for Week 2, returned home after Sunday’s game, and then they’ll travel back to Buffalo this weekend. RB Cam Akers (rib) and LG Joe Noteboom (calf) both left Week 2 early while the Bills lost TE Dawson Knox to a concussion last week.
Potential Line Movement: This line opened too high in the Bills favor and it’s quickly moved down to Buffalo -3 since Sunday night. This line appears to be heading even further south so you should jump in now if you want to grab the Rams catching a full field goal before they’re gone this week. If you’re looking to back the Bills this week, there’s no reason to rush to the window since I’m expecting this line to head south of three points this week.
New York Jets (0-2, 0-2 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-1, 1-1)
- Opening Line: Colts -9
- Recent Results: The Jets will be the worst team in my Power Ratings this week after a second embarrassing performance to start the season. The Jets got blown off the field 31-13 by the 49ers in their home opener despite San Francisco losing players left and right before and after the game. Rookie Jonathan Taylor collected his first 100+ yard rushing game in his first game as the full-time starter as the Colts raced to a 28-11 victory over the Vikings. The Colts held Kirk Cousins to an ugly 4.3 YPA and they picked him three times in the dominant victory.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: Both the Jets and the Colts lost some key players in Week 2. WR Breshad Perriman (ankle) joined Jamison Crowder (hamstring) on the sidelines in Week 2, and the Jets could be without big free-agent C Connor McGovern (hamstring) this week. New York also lost CBs Quincy Wilson (concussion) and Arthur Maulet (groin) in Week 2. Indy lost S Malik Hooker for the season with a torn Achilles while Parris Campbell will miss a couple of weeks with a knee injury. Also, Philip Rivers is just one touchdown pass away from becoming the sixth player to throw for 400 touchdowns in his career. The Colts would like Rivers to reach the mark in front of their limited home crowd.
- Potential Line Movement: This line has already moved closer to double digits since going up Sunday night, and I think it’s only a matter of time before the Colts become 10-11 point favorites this week. I’m betting the Colts -9.5 now before the line moves even more because I haven’t seen any signs of life from this Jets team that looks to be just going through the motions. I also came away impressed by the Colts in a dominant victory over the Vikings with Taylor dominating on the ground. If you’re looking to catch a falling knife by backing the Jets, I don’t see any reason to race to the betting window with this line likely to finish another point or two higher by the end of the week.
Washington Football Team (1-1, 1-1 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-1, 0-2)
- Opening Line: Browns -6.5
- Recent Results: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray diced up Washington’s defense for 353 total yards and three touchdowns in a 30-15 victory over the Football Team. Washington went into the half trailing by 20 points after netting just 96 yards without any points in the first half. The Browns got their offense on track in a 35-30 home victory over the Bengals after a dismal season-opening performance against the Ravens. RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 210 rushing yards while each scored two touchdowns in the decisive victory.
- Injuries/Developments to Follow: The Football Team could be without their outstanding RG Brandon Scherff this week after he left Week 2 early with a knee injury. The Browns will look to get a few key players back this week after DE Olivier Vernon (abdomen) and RT Jack Conklin (finger/ankle) didn’t play last week, but they at least made it through Week 2 relatively unscathed, which is better than most teams after last week.
- Potential Line Movement: This line opened too low after Washington’s dismal road showing in Arizona last week and after Cleveland showed some offensive life in an impressive rushing performance against the Bengals. Most of the -6.5s have quickly disappeared since going up Sunday night so don’t wait around if you see one still available and are looking to back the Browns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line move to the 7.5-8 point range by the time kickoff rolls around like we saw with Washington’s game against the Cardinals in Week 2 so grabbing the Browns at -7 isn’t a bad move either. With the Cleveland backers jumping back on the bandwagon, Washington backers should wait this line out this week to get the maximum value at the end of the week.
