Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!
Tuesday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys (3-8, 2-9 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5, 5-6), 8:05 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 18.75, Ravens 26.25
Spread/Total Movements: 7 to 8.5 to 7.5
Weather: 36 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
Cowboys Injuries to Watch: RT Zack Martin (calf, out), LT Cameron Erving (MCL, out)
Ravens Injuries to Watch: TE Mark Andrews (COVID-19), WR Willie Snead (COVID-19), OLB Matthew Judon (COVID-19), CB Tramon Williams (thigh, doubtful), QB Robert Griffin (thigh, out)
Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.
The Cowboys averaged just 4.3 yards per play in their 41-16 loss to the Football Team.
Andy Dalton completed 25/35 passes for 215 yards (6.1 YPA), one TD, and one INT against Washington with most of his production coming on his 54-yard pass to Amari Cooper. The Ravens blitz at the fourth-highest rate (39.7%) so Dalton could have some issues this week with Zack Martin (calf) and Cameron Erving (MCL) expected to miss. The O-line was already in tatters before their injuries in Week 12.
Amari Cooper has emerged as the only reliable piece of this passing attack for fantasy after exploding for 6/112/1 receiving on eight targets on Thanksgiving Day against the Football Team. He’s posted 5+ catches and 65+ receiving yards in five of his six games since Dak Prescott went down for the season so he’s the one Cowboy who has found a way to survive. The Ravens limited Diontae Johnson to 8/46 receiving on 13 targets, but he did leave some catches on the field.
CeeDee Lamb has just 9/55/1 receiving on 13 targets since Dalton returned to the lineup in Week 11. JuJu Smith-Schuster muscled out 8/37/1 receiving on nine targets in this matchup last week.
Michael Gallup has 8/70 receiving on 13 targets since Dalton returned to the lineup in Week 11. Chase Claypool posted 6/52 receiving on nine targets in this matchup last week.
Dalton Schultz has an aDOT sitting at just 7.1 yards but he has 4+ catches in four straight games. He caught all five of his targets for 24 yards against the Football Team in Week 12. The Ravens are allowing 5.2 catches and 51.4 yards per game to TEs.
Ezekiel Elliot lost his league-leading sixth fumble in his 11th game against Washington last week. He’s now failed to reach double-digit FP in four out of his last five games, and he’s averaging career-lows in YPC (3.9) and YPR (6.6). Benny Snell posted 16/60 rushing and 3/33 receiving against an undermanned Ravens front seven last week.
The Ravens are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
The Ravens are 3-1 toward unders in their last four games.
Barring any setbacks, Lamar Jackson (COVID-19) is expected back for this great spot against the Cowboys. He’s run for 50+ yards in five straight games while averaging 12.4 carries per game, which has covered up his passing-game woes as he’s averaging just 194.8 passing yards per game. The Cowboys are giving up a league-high 2.2 passing touchdowns per game, and Kyler Murray posted 10/74/1 rushing against them in Week 6.
Marquise Brown actually got a good break last week with the Steelers handing him an easy 70-yard touchdown. He also saw a seven-week high eight targets with Lamar out of the lineup. Speedy WRs Terry McLaurin (7/92 receiving) and Justin Jefferson (3/86/1) have fared well in this matchup.
Mark Andrews and Willie Snead each went on the COVID-19 list on Nov. 30 so they won’t have the mandatory 10 days of quarantining and negative tests to play this week. Devin Duvernay (78% snap share), Dez Bryant (59%), and Miles Boykin (33%) played behind Hollywood in Week 12 while Luke Willson (69%) led the TEs. The Ravens are allowing 35.9 FPG to WRs (3rd-most) and 10.5 FPG to TEs (17th-most).
J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram will return to the lineup this week. Dobbins had a break-out performance in Week 11, posting 15/70/1 rushing and 2/15 receiving on a 63% snap share — his 17 touches were a career-high. Fellow rookie Antonio Gibson posted 20/115/3 rushing against the Cowboys last week.
Gus Edwards played 20% of the snaps back in Week 11 with 3/6 rushing and Ingram played just 9% of the snaps. Ingram has just seven carries for seven yards over his last two games while Gus muscled out just 6/6/1 rushing without Dobbins and Ingram last week against the Steelers.
Baltimore Ravens -7 (Staff Picks Lean)
Lamar Jackson (Bal) over 50.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)