Best Bets: Week 13


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Best Bets: Week 13

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Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.

Tom Brolley

Game Picks

Best Bets ATS Record: 34-31-2 (-1.3 units); W13: 5-1 (+4.61 units)

Overall ATS Record: 106-84-2 (55.8%); W13: 11-4 (73.3%)

Totals Record: 4-5 (-1.13 units); W13: 0-0 (— units)

New Orleans Saints (-2.5, FanDuel) at Atlanta Falcons

We saw what Taysom Hill and this offense can do to this Falcons defense just two weeks ago, and I’m not down on the Saints offense after last week since HC Sean Payton clearly decided to turtle on the ball in a game with Kendall Hinton at quarterback on the other side. New Orleans’ defense has rounded into top form in the last month, and I have a difficult time seeing the Falcons moving the ball with any kind of consistency against the Saints this week. The Saints limited the Falcons to 4.2 yards per play just two weeks ago and they sacked Matt Ryan eight times. I prefer to get the Saints laying less than a field goal today but I don’t have a problem laying a full three points either. Risk one unit at -114 to win .88 units (Dec. 6).

Buffalo Bills (+1, FanDuel) vs. San Francisco 49ers

I’m surprised by how much this line has swung in the favor of the 49ers as the Bills have gone from three-point favorites to one-point underdogs in the last couple of days. I thought the opening line was right on the mark since I had the Bills power rated as three points better than the 49ers in this is neutral-site matchup in Glendale, Ariz. If anything, I’m slightly downgrading the 49ers for this week’s schedule since they uprooted their franchise operations from the Santa Clara, Calif. area to play the next two weeks at the Cardinals’ home stadium. Bettors have clearly given the 49ers a huge bump off of their victory of the Rams last week, but I don’t think they’re necessarily back to their 2019 form, especially with a flawed quarterback in Nick Mullens. HC Kyle Shanahan and DC Robert Saleh have owned Sean McVay and Jared Goff over the last two seasons, but we’ll see if they can contain the much more elusive Josh Allen — mobile QBs have given the 49ers issues this year. I am slightly concerned about Allen’s health off of his injury scare last week, but he was a full participant in their first practice of the week. The Bills also have a chance to get impact-linebacker Matt Milano (chest, IR) back this week, which would be huge for the middle of their defense. This line movement has been too much of an overreaction to San Francisco’s performance last week. I’m comfortable laying anything fewer than two points with the Bills if this line swings back in the Bills favor before kickoff. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Dec. 4).

Indianapolis Colts (-3, FoxBet) at Houston Texans

The Texans lost their best pass-game weapon in Will Fuller and their best pass-game defender in Bradley Roby because of suspensions for PEDs. I think Fuller and Roby are arguably two of the bigger losses to their respective units that we could see around the league. PFF has Fuller graded as the #4 WR in the league this year, and we could see Deshaun Watson struggling to consistently move the ball through the air with just Brandin Cooks at his disposal. They no longer have Randall Cobb or Kenny Stills and we already know they can’t run the ball. On defense, PFF has Roby graded as the #19 CB in the league and the Texans currently don’t have another CB graded in their top-115 at the position who has played more than 200 snaps. I’m slightly concerned about the loss of LT Anthony Castonzo with a matchup looming with J.J. Watt this week, but it’s not enough to scare me off the Colts this week. The Colts could also get DeForest Buckner and Jonathan Taylor back in the lineup, which would be big boosts (especially Buckner). Grab this line while it’s still sitting at -3 because I could see this line finishing north of -4 and potentially in the -6 range by kickoff. Risk two units at +100 to win two units (Dec. 1).

Washington Football Team (+10.5, FanDuel) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I broke this game down as part of my Week 13 Opening Line Report. I backed the Football Team last week, and they have the look of a team that’s trending upward and that I want to keep backing in December. Washington has a pair of stars in the making on both sides of the ball in Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Chase Young, and Montez Sweat. They’ll have 10 days to get ready for a major step-up game against a Steelers squad that went through an exhausting Week 12 with a bunch of starts and stops in their schedule. The Steelers will be catching just five days of rest between their Tuesday matchup with divisional rival Baltimore and what projects to be another physical game with the Football Team on Sunday. This line can only go down based on Pittsburgh’s performance on Tuesday as no bettor will be impressed if Pittsburgh smacks around an undermanned Baltimore squad. Grab this line while it’s still a double-digit spread as I’m expecting this line to close in the 7 to 8 point range. Risk one unit at -114 to win .91 units (Nov. 30)

Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, BetMGM) at Arizona Cardinals

I broke this game down as part of my Week 13 Opening Line Report. The Rams are coming off a disheartening performance against the 49ers last week, but my bigger concern in this game is on the other sideline with an injured Kyler Murray going against this ferocious Rams defense. Kyler clearly looked to be favoring his injured throwing shoulder against the Patriots, and this offense didn’t have the same juice in Week 12 with Murray rarely looking to tuck it run. Murray’s aDOT has also sat under seven yards in each of his last two games, including his 6.2 aDOT against the Patriots, which dropped his season average down to 8.0. Murray could be healthier in Week 13 with another seven days to distance himself from his initial injury in Week 11, but it’s not going to be easy to move the ball against the Rams if he’s at anything less than 100% health. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rams settle in as three-point favorites later this week so grab the shorter line now. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 30)

Los Angeles Chargers (-1, DraftKings) vs. New England Patriots

I broke this game down as part of my Week 13 Opening Line Report. The Chargers were 2.5-point lookahead favorites before Sunday’s games, and I’m not significantly adjusting either team in my power ratings based on their performances on Sunday. The markets have downgraded the Chargers after they bungled away another chance at a victory while the Patriots have been upgraded after beating an injured Kyler Murray while averaging just 3.7 yards per play. I know it’s gross to back the Chargers with Anthony Lynn sabotaging this team at every turn, but I can’t pass up betting the clearly superior team with the superior quarterback at such a short price. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 30)

Player Props

Record: 110-88 (+15.23 units); W13: 11-3 (+8.64 units)

All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.

  • Aaron Rodgers (GB) over 2.5 TD passes (+200, DraftKings) (W)

  • Nyheim Hines (Ind) over 3.5 receptions (+150, DraftKings) (L)

  • Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 48.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM) (W)

  • Travis Fulgham (Phi) under 2.5 receptions (-105, BetMGM) (W)

  • Brandon Allen (Cin) under 208.5 passing yards (-112, William Hill) (W)

  • Sam Darnold (NYJ) under 34.5 attempts (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • David Montgomery (Chi) over 60.5 rushing (-110, FanDuel) (W)

  • Justin Jefferson (Min) over 67.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Keenan Allen (LAC) under 6.5 receptions (-118, DraftKings) (W)

  • Anthony Firkser (Ten) over 26.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)

  • Sterling Shepard (NYG) over 4.5 receptions (+130, William Hill) (L)

  • Tyreek Hill (KC) over 73.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)

  • J.D. McKissic (Was) over 3.5 receptions (+122, DraftKings) (W)

  • Deebo Samuel (SF) over 5.5 receptions (+125, BetMGM) (W)

  • Lamar Jackson (Bal) over 50.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)