Week 12 WNF Trends & Picks


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Week 12 WNF Trends & Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Baltimore Ravens (6-4, 4-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0, 8-2), 3:40 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals:

  • Weather: 39 degrees, clear, 10-15 mph

  • Ravens COVID-19 list

  • Steelers Injuries to Watch: RB James Conner (COVID-19), DL Stephon Tuitt (COVID-19), OT Jerald Hawkins (COVID-19), RB Jaylen Samuels (out)

Ravens Trends

  • The Ravens have failed to cover in six of their last eight games, and they’re now on the outside looking in for the playoffs with six games remaining in the season.

  • The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.

  • Lamar Jackson won’t play this week after testing positive for COVID-19, leaving Robert Griffin as the starter. RGIII last started against the Steelers in the season finale last season. He completed 11/21 passes for 96 yards and INT and he added 8/50 rushing.

  • RGIII will be without Mark Andrews and Willie Snead this week so his top weapons receivers will be Marquise Brown, Dez Bryant, Devin Duvernay, and Miles Boykin.

  • Hollywood failed to catch any of his three targets last week, and he has just 6/55/1 receiving in four games since their bye week. He caught a three-yard TD pass against the Steelers in Week 8, which was his only catch in that contest. Hollywood caught both of his targets for 15 yards with RGIII in Week 17 last season.

  • The Ravens are slated to get J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram back from the COVID-19 list just in time for Wednesday’s matchup. Dobbins had a break-out performance in Week 11, posting 15/70/1 rushing and 2/15 receiving on a 63% snap share — his 17 touches were a career high. Dobbins posted a career-best 15/113 rushing the last time these teams met in Week 8 when Ingram missed the game.

  • Gus Edwards played 20% of the snaps back in Week 11 with 3/6 rushing and Ingram played just 9%. Ingram has just seven carries for seven yards over his last two games. Gus posted 16/87/1 rushing in this matchup in Week 8 when Ingram missed.

Steelers Trends

  • The Steelers are the league’s only unbeaten team and they own the league’s best ATS record at 8-2.

  • Pittsburgh has covered seven of its last eight games after outscoring the Bengals and the Jaguars 63-13 over the last two weeks.

  • The Steelers can end Baltimore’s hopes of repeating as the AFC North champions with a win.

  • Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 toward overs in its last five home games.

  • Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 43.0 pass attempts, 271.2 passing yards, and 2.6 passing TDs per game over his last five contests. His one down game in that span came against the Ravens when he posted 182/2 passing in Week 8 with the Ravens dominating the ball.

  • The Steelers’ offense is running through Diontae Johnson as the team’s chain-moving perimeter receiver and Chase Claypool as the team’s deep threat and red-zone weapon much like Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant did it back in the mid-2010s. Johnson has seen double-digit targets in each of his six fully healthy games after posting 12/111 receiving on a whopping 16 targets (34.8% share) against the Jaguars. Diontae had just a six-yard catch against the Ravens in Week 8 as he was in and out of the lineup with a hamstring issue.

  • Claypool became the first player in the Super Bowl era to score his 10th touchdown in his first 10 career games as he finished with 4/59/1 receiving on eight targets (17.4% share) in Week 11. He now has 8+ targets in four consecutive games, which includes his 5/42/1 receiving line against the Ravens in Week 8.

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster picked up a foot injury when he accidentally stepped on a ref’s flag last week. He managed just 4/19 receiving last week, which snapped a four-game streak with 6+ catches and 65+ yards. He led the Steelers with 7/67 receiving back in Week 8 against the Ravens.

  • Eric Ebron has 11+ FP in four of his last five games after recording 4/36/1 receiving against the Jaguars last week. He came through with 4/48/1 receiving against the Ravens in Week 8, and Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser combined for 8/53/1 receiving last week in this matchup.

  • James Conner finally got going last week with 13/89 rushing against the Jaguars, but he won’t play this week after testing positive for COVID-19. Benny Snell stole a touchdown from Conner last week at the goal line, and he’s expected to take over as the early-down runner this week. Rookie Anthony McFarland will work as the change-of-pace/passing back beside him. Jaylen Samuels (quad) will once again miss this week, which will at least concentrate the touches between Snell and McFarland while Conner is out of the lineup. The Ravens have been gashed by Derrick Henry (133 yards) and Damien Harris (121 yards) in their last two games. DT Brandon Williams was activated off the COVID-19 list but his snaps could be limited since he hasn’t practiced or played since Nov. 15 because of an ankle injury.

Brolley’s Bets

*Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (Best Bet)

Benny Snell (Pit) over 15.5 rushing attempts (Best Bet)

Chase Claypool (Pit) anytime touchdown (Best Bet)

Gus Edwards (Bal) over 39.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

*I’ve bet on the Steelers three different times since lines for this game started to be posted. I initially bet the Steelers at -1.5 on a lookahead line on Nov. 19 at FanDuel. I initially gave out the Steelers as a Best Bet at -3 on Nov. 23 at DraftKings, but DK voids wagers if games are moved to a different date. Finally, I gave out the Steelers again at -4 on Nov. 26 at FanDuel. FD only voids wagers if the game is moved from the given week on the NFL schedule so my two FD bets are still alive. I would only be looking to bet the Steelers at -10.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.