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Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.
Tom Brolley
Game Picks
Best Bets ATS Record: 28-30-2 (-6.82 units); W12: 4-1 (+2.6 units)
Overall ATS Record: 94-80-2 (54.0%); W12: 9-6 (60%)
Totals Record: 4-5 (-1.13 units); W11: 0-2 (-2 units)
New Orleans Saints (-15, BetMGM) at Denver Broncos
I took the bait and grabbed the Saints laying 14 points on Saturday night, and I still like this bet up to -16.5. I just don’t see how the Broncos are going to consistently move the ball with Kendall Hinton and a bunch of running backs running the offense. I wouldn’t feel great about Denver’s chances going against the worst defense in the league, but they’ll be facing a Saints defense that’s rounding into elite form in recent weeks. The Saints should be able to name their score in this one if they show up and play with any kind of effort. Risk one unit at -105 to win .95 units (Nov. 25)
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (over 44.5 points, BetMGM)
The Dolphins will have the much more aggressive Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback this week with Tua Tagovailoa getting the week off for his thumb injury. I’m expecting DeVante Parker and the Dolphins passing attack to be active today against a banged up Jets secondary, especially with so much uncertainty in their backfield with Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin out of the lineup. The Jets have also been much more aggressive throwing downfield recently with Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims on the field, which will hopefully continue with Sam Darnold back in the lineup this week. Risk one unit at -105 to win .95 units (Nov. 25)
Carolina Panthers (+4.5, BetMGM) at Minnesota Vikings
This line is moving into the 3.5 to 4 point range as the week goes along with Adam Thielen’s status up in the air. I’m grabbing a +4.5 points with the Panthers while they’re still out there as it looks like Teddy Bridgewater will be back this week to take on his old team. The Panthers have been road warriors so far this season with four straight road covers, which includes two road victories over the Chargers and the Falcons and losses by a combined five points against the Saints and the Chiefs. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units (Nov. 25)
Washington Football (+3, Caesars) at Dallas Cowboys
I was waiting to see if this line might reach +3.5 points before kickoff on Thanksgiving but it looks like this line is going to hold in the +2 to +3 point range so I’m grabbing the line before it gets below a field goal. The Football Team handily won this matchup, 25-3, back in Week 7, and they primarily did it by pressuring Andy Dalton. The Cowboys re-shuffled their O-line coming out of their bye week, and it worked for one week going against a Minnesota defense that’s a bottom-10 unit getting to the quarterback. Dalton still averaged just 6.3 YPA even with time to throw last week, and I’m expecting the Football Team to heat him up this week with their D-line that has the league’s second-best sack rate (9.4%). Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson should make enough plays on offense to keep Washington within a field goal this week, and I’ll be grabbing a piece of the moneyline, as well, at +130 or better. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units (Nov. 25)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Ravens
UPDATE: This game has been taken off the board and moved to Sunday. I’ll take the Steelers again at -4 if your bet was voided like DraftKings did at -3 when this game was initially scheduled for Thursday. (Nov. 26)
I broke this game down as part of my Week 12 Opening Line Report. I bet the Steelers at -1.5 on a lookahead line at the end of last week and this line has climbed to -3 after Baltimore’s overtime loss to the Titans as six-point home favorites. They’ve now failed to cover spread in four of their last five games, including in their 28-24 loss to the Steelers as four-point home favorites in Week 8. Meanwhile, the Steelers continue to make bank for their backers as they now stand alone with the best ATS record in the league at 8-2. I’m expecting the markets to crash on the Ravens later this week especially with a little extra money coming in on Thanksgiving so grab the Steelers now at -3 before this line closes in the -4 to -5 point range. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 23)
Houston Texans (-2, BetMGM) at Detroit Lions
I broke this game down as part of my Week 12 Opening Line Report. The Lions are coming off an embarrassing 20-0 shutout loss to the Panthers as three-point road favorites as this offense looked completely lost. Matthew Stafford struggled in his first game playing through his thumb injury, and this offense could be hard-pressed this week if Kenny Golladay (hip), D’Andre Swift (concussion), and Danny Amendola (hip) are unable to play with a short week to get ready. The Texans lost some firepower of their own with Randall Cobb (foot) and Kenny Stills (leg) going down, and DL P.J. Hall (chest) could also miss this week, which would hurt their already poor run defense. Still, Deshaun Watson is playing about as well as any quarterback in the league right now, and I don’t see the markets looking to back a Lions team that’s been outclassed in three of their last four games. I’m grabbing the Texans now while the line is under a field goal since I’m expecting this line to close in the -3 to -3.5 point range. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 23)
Cleveland Browns (-6, FanDuel) at Jacksonville Jaguars
I broke this game down as part of my Week 12 Opening Line Report. The Jaguars have been crushed by injuries C.J. Henderson landed on the IR last week with a groin injury while stud DE Josh Allen (knee), CB D.J. Hayden (knee), OG Andrew Norwell (arm), CB Chris Claybrooks (groin), and S Daniel Thomas (arm) each left Week 11 early with injuries. The Jaguars also played without rookie WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring) and CB Sidney Jones (Achilles) last week. YIKES. Jacksonville’s quarterback situation is a mess with Jake Luton looking like a sixth-round pick while Gardner Minshew (thumb) hasn’t been healthy enough to dress. Add it all up and I’m taking a flawed but winning Cleveland team at -6 early in the week before this line climbs to over a touchdown later in the week once people realize how awful Jacksonville’s injury report is. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 23)
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (Over 53, William Hill)
I’m jumping on this total before it threatens 55 to 56 points later in the week. The Chargers have played over the total in SEVEN straight games with their games averaging a very healthy combined 60.6 points in that span. The Bills are also streaking toward overs with three straight high-scoring affairs with their offense starting to hit its stride again. Of course, once we get this late into the season we need to keep an eye on the Buffalo weather before placing a bet. Early-week forecasts project near-ideal conditions for Orchard Park, NY in late November (47 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph) so these offenses should have the green light for action this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 23)
Player Props
Record: 98-84 (+6.7 units); W12: 7-7 (-.59 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Antonio Gibson (Was) over 69.5 rushing and receiving yards (-113, FanDuel) (W)
Brandin Cooks (Hou) over 5.5 receptions (+115, DraftKings) (L)
Mike Williams (LAC) over 41.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
Sterling Shepard (NYG) over 4.5 receptions (+108, DraftKings) (W)
Austin Hooper (Cle) over 28.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill) (L)
D.J. Moore (Car) over 59.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
Cam Newton (NE) under 43.5 rushing yards (-110, William Hill) (L)
Emmanuel Sanders (NO) over 33.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
Derrick Henry (Ten) over 84.5 rushing yards (-115, William Hill) (W)
Tyreek Hill (KC) over 73.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM) (W)
DeVante Parker (Mia) over 59.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM) (W)
Cooper Kupp (LAR) over 59.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM) (L)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) under 296.5 passing yards (-112, BetMGM) (W)
Miles Sanders (Phi) over 17.5 receiving yards (-106, BetMGM) (L)
Benny Snell (Pit) over 15.5 rushing attempts (-112, DraftKings)
Chase Claypool (Pit) anytime touchdown (+140, FanDuel)
Gus Edwards (Bal) over 39.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)
