My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LV Odds|
|1.||Kansas City Chiefs||9.5||8-1 (6-3)||—||+350|
|2.||Pittsburgh Steelers||7||9-0 (7-2)||+.5||+550|
|3.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||6||7-3 (5-5)||+1||+900|
|4.||Baltimore Ravens||5.5||6-3 (4-5)||-1||+1000|
|5.||Green Bay Packers||5||7-2 (6-3)||—||+900|
|6.||Seattle Seahawks||4.5||6-3 (5-4)||-1||+1600|
|7.||New Orleans Saints||4||7-2 (4-5)||-1||+650|
|8.||Indianapolis Colts||4||6-3 (5-4)||+1||+2500|
|9.||Los Angeles Rams||3.5||6-3 (5-4)||-.5||+1800|
|10.||Arizona Cardinals||3.5||6-3 (5-4)||+.5||+2200|
|11.||Buffalo Bills||3||7-3 (5-5)||+.5||+2200|
|12.||Las Vegas Raiders||2.5||6-3 (6-3)||+.5||+5000|
|13.||Tennessee Titans||2.5||6-3 (3-6)||-1||+3000|
|14.||Miami Dolphins||2||6-3 (7-2)||+1||+4000|
|15.||Minnesota Vikings||2||4-5 (6-3)||+1||+8000|
|16.||Cleveland Browns||1.5||6-3 (3-6)||+.5||+5000|
|17.||Atlanta Falcons||.5||3-6 (4-5)||—||+20000|
|18.||New England Patriots||0||4-5 (4-5)||+.5||+7000|
|19.||Philadelphia Eagles||0||3-5-1 (3-6)||-.5||+6000|
|20.||Los Angeles Chargers||0||2-7 (5-4)||-.5||+45000|
|21.||San Francisco 49ers||-.5||4-6 (4-6)||-.5||+10000|
|22.||Chicago Bears||-1||5-5 (5-5)||-.5||+8000|
|23.||Houston Texans||-1||2-7 (2-7)||-.5||+45000|
|24.||Carolina Panthers||-1||3-7 (5-5)||-1||+27500|
|25.||New York Giants||-1.5||3-7 (7-3)||+1||+15000|
|26.||Detroit Lions||-1.5||4-5 (3-6)||—||+15000|
|27.||Cincinnati Bengals||-2||2-6-1 (6-3)||-.5||+100000|
|28.||Denver Broncos||-3||3-6 (5-4)||-.5||+45000|
|30.||Dallas Cowboys||-5.5||2-7 (1-8)||—||+15000|
|31.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-5.5||1-8 (4-5)||+.5||+150000|
|32.||New York Jets||-8.5||0-9 (2-7)||—||+250000|
Week 11 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 11.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6.5 to 7) — The Steelers suffocated Joe Burrow on third downs last week as the Bengals failed to convert on all 13 of their third-down situations. Ben Roethlisberger burned the Bengals for 343/4 passing with Cincinnati selling out to stop the run in windy conditions and since Big Ben didn’t practice last week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5 to 6) — The Buccaneers scored 46 points in their victory over the Panthers last week, and they may have posted a 50-burger if Tom Brady had connected on a few more passes to wide-open Buccaneers receivers. Brady and company still made a statement after their dismal showing against the Saints in Week 9 as he completed 28/39 passes for 341 yards (8.7 YPA) and three touchdowns.
Indianapolis Colts (3 to 4) — The Colts outscored the Titans 21-0 in the second half of Week 10 to grab control of the AFC South. Rookie Michael Pittman also may have emerged as a go-to receiver for Philip Rivers going forward after posting 7/101 receiving with a 21-yard carry in a break-out performance.
Arizona Cardinals (3 to 3.5) — Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are the talk of the NFL after their improbable Week 10 victory over the Bills. They connected for the game-winning score on a 43-yard desperation heave for the 32-30 victory as two-point home favorites.
Buffalo Bills (2.5 to 3) — The Bills did just about everything they could to win their second straight game against a strong NFC West squad, but Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins stuck a dagger in them with their Hail Mary connection at the end of Week 10. The offense is still heading back in the right direction after a few rough patches in October.
Las Vegas Raiders (2 to 2.5) — The Raiders are rolling with three straight outright wins and three covers, and they’ve covered in four out of their last five games. Josh Jacobs and this Raiders rushing attack has crushed their last three opponents with 160+ rushing yards in each game in that stretch.
Miami Dolphins (1 to 2) — Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins stretched their record to 3-0 overall and to 3-0 ATS with their easy victory over the Chargers. Miami is on a five-game ATS win streak overall and they’re now sitting just a half-game behind the Bills for first place in the AFC East.
Minnesota Vikings (1 to 1.5) — The Vikings are right back in the playoff and NFC North races after they ripped three straight victories over their divisional rivals. The Vikings defense is picking up some momentum as they kept Chicago out of the end zone in Week 10 and they held them to a dismal 3.0 yards per play.
Cleveland Browns (1 to 1.5) — It’s tough to get a great gage of where Baker Mayfield and this passing attack is since Odell Beckham went down for the season with his ACL injury as they’ve played in ugly conditions in two straight games. With Nick Chubb back in the lineup, they grounded out a victory over the Texans with 231 rushing yards.
New England Patriots (-1 to 0) — It took the Patriots offense some time, but they’ve found the two focal points for this offense in Jakobi Meyers and Damien Harris. Meyers has 4+ catches and 58+ receiving yards in four straight games while Harris has averaged more than 5.0 YPC in five of his six games this season.
New York Giants (-2.5 to -1.5) — Non-bettors are finally starting to take notice of the Giants, but they’ve been quietly rising up my power ratings for several weeks now. They’ve covered in four straight games and in six of their last seven spreads, and they’re suddenly in the thick of the NFC East race with consecutive wins in the division.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6 to -5.5) — Jake Luton was the biggest change the Jaguars made coming out of their Week 8 bye, but they’ve actually started to play some defense despite their 1-8 record. The Jaguars had allowed 30+ points in six straight games and 400+ total yards in four straight games before their bye, but they’ve kept both the Packers and the Texans below 30 points and 400 total yards over the last two weeks.
Week 11 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 11.
Baltimore Ravens (6.5 to 5.5) — The Ravens are now 0-6 with Lamar Jackson at quarterback in any games they’ve trailed by 10 or more points after falling to the Patriots in Week 10. Baltimore lost another key piece to its run and pass blocking units with TE Nick Boyle lost for the season with a knee injury.
Seattle Seahawks (5.5 to 4.5) — The Seahawks are coming off their second straight disappointing performance in a 23-16 loss to the Rams as three-point road underdogs. Seattle has failed to cover a spread in four of its last five games after opening the season with a four-game ATS winning streak.
New Orleans Saints (5 to 4) — I’m downgrading the Saints a bit based on the Drew Brees’ injury news as he’ll likely be out for a few weeks. The betting markets are a little more down on the Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill duo at quarterback than I am since this week’s line dropped around two points with the quarterback change.
Los Angeles Rams (4 to 3.5) — The Rams deserved a boost up my ratings based on their performance in Week 10, but I kept them at their current rating after losing S Taylor Rapp (knee, IR) and LT Andrew Whitworth (MCL, IR). Whitworth could return for the playoffs but I have major concerns about Los Angeles’ O-line in the interim considering just how sensitive Jared Goff is to pressure.
Tennessee Titans (3.5 to 2.5) — The Titans blew a first-half lead to the division-rival Colts in Week 10 by being out-scored 21-0 in the final 30 minutes to give up control of the AFC South. The Titans’ special teams units continued to play miserable as two punt-team gaffes and a missed field goal handed the victory to the Colts.
Los Angeles Chargers (.5 to 0) — The Chargers looked like a truly defeated team in Week 10 after they dropped to 3-16 in one-score games since the start of 2019 in their 29-21 loss to the Dolphins. They’ve now failed to cover three straight spreads after running off three straight covers before that.
Philadelphia Eagles (.5 to 0) — The Eagles had the chance to bury the Giants in the wide-open NFC East race, but they let New York right back into race in a 27-17 loss as five-point road favorites. The Eagles have five straight games against teams with winning records before closing the season against Washington and Dallas so the NFC East is truly anybody’s race.
San Francisco 49ers (0 to -.5) — The 49ers defense played well enough to cover a 10-point spread against the 49ers in Week 10, but San Francisco muffed two punts and Nick Mullens threw two interceptions to throw away their chances at the cover. They’ll get a much-needed bye this week to try to get healthy for the stretch run.
Chicago Bears (-.5 to -1) — It’s time for the Bears to turn back to Mitch Trubisky after their Week 11 bye after the offense failed to score a touchdown and they averaged a pathetic 3.0 yards per play. The Bears don’t have a viable quarterback, they have no running game, and they don’t have an offensive line that can block in both phases.
Houston Texans (-.5 to -1) — The Texans covered for just the second time in nine games this season but it took Nick Chubb running out of bounds at the one-yard line on a breakaway run to do so. They’ve now allowed 230+ rushing yards to three different teams this season.
Carolina Panthers (0 to -1) — The Panthers got absolutely pantsed by the Buccaneers in their 46-23 loss last week as Carolina was out-gained by 367 yards (544 to 187). Carolina had lost four straight one-score games before getting exposed by the Buccaneers in Week 10.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5 to -2) — The Bengals have been demolished when they’ve been clearly outmanned by the Steelers and the Ravens this season. Joe Burrow actually looked like a rookie as Cincinnati finished a dreadful 0-for-13 on third downs against one of the league’s best defenses last week.
Denver Broncos (-2.5 to -3) — Denver has failed to cover in three of its last four games, and the only game it covered in that stretch came on the final play of the game in its miraculous victory over the Chargers. Drew Lock has averaged more than 6.5 YPA in just one of his six full games this season, and he has 10 INTs in his last five games.