Week 10 Sunday Trends and Picks

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Week 10 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Week 10 Player Props

  • Miles Sanders (Phi) over 72.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Jalen Reagor (Phi) over 3.5 receptions (+125, DraftKings)

  • Davante Adams (GB) over 83.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Robert Woods (LAR) over 59.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • D.K. Metcalf (Sea) over 74.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • John Brown (Buf) over 45.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill)

  • Alvin Kamara (NO) over 97.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Jakobi Meyers (NE) over 49.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Keenan Allen (LAC) over 6.5 receptions (+100, William Hill)

  • J.D. McKissic (Was) under 6.5 carries (+101, DraftKings)

  • D’Andre Swift (Det) over 65.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Phillip Lindsay (Den) over 47.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Nelson Agholor (LV) over 40.5 receiving yards (+105, DraftKings)

  • Giovani Bernard (Cin) over 59.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

Early Afternoon Games

Houston Texans (2-6, 1-7 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (5-3, 3-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Texans 22.5, Browns 26

  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3.5, 53.5 to 48.5

  • Weather: 39 degrees, 33% chance of rain, 20-25 mph

  • Texans Injuries to Watch: RB David Johnson (concussion), LB Brennan Scarlett (forearm, IR)

  • Browns Injuries to Watch: RT Jack Conklin (knee), LG Joel Bitonio (elbow), RG Wyatt Teller (calf), C JC Tretter (knee)

Texans Trends

  • The Texans grabbed their second win of the season over the Jaguars in Week 9, but they failed to cover their second spread of the season in a 27-25 victory as 6.5-point road favorites.

  • Houston is 6-1-1 toward overs this season.

  • The Texans are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six road games.

  • Deshaun Watson has posted 24+ FP in his first four games without Bill O’Brien, and he’s averaging a ridiculous 8.8 YPA this season. The Browns are allowing 281.8 passing yards per game and 2.1 passing TDs per game.

  • Will Fuller has scored a touchdown in six straight games, but he’s seen just a 16% target share over the last two games with Brandin Cooks emerging. The Browns are allowing 1.5 receiving TDs per game to WRs (5th-most).

  • Cooks has posted 60+ receiving yards, 9+ targets, and 13+ FP in four straight games since O’Brien got canned. The Browns are allowing the fourth-most targets per game to WRs (23.1).

  • Randall Cobb’s run of 10+ FP in his first three games without BOB came to an end last week with just 3/21 receiving on three targets. He’s now finished below 50 receiving yards in four of his last five games.

  • Duke Johnson finished as a top-10 RB last week after David Johnson left early with a concussion, posting 16/41/1 rushing and 4/32 receiving. The Browns have allowed 95+ scrimmage yards to individual backs in three straight games.

Browns Trends

  • The Browns are allowing up to 12,000 fans to attend this week.

  • The Browns have scored seven or fewer points in each of their three losses this season.

  • Cleveland is 5-2 toward overs in its last seven games.

  • Nick Chubb has been out of the lineup since he suffered his knee injury in Week 4, but he’s looking to return this week. Kareem Hunt was a slight disappointment as the bell-cow back during Chubb’s absence, averaging 13.6 FPG in his four-game run as the top back. Chubb will go back to being the primary runner in this offense while Hunt will work as the change-of-pace back and as the team’s passing-down option. Hunt actually averaged 17.4 FPG and Chubb averaged 15.3 FPG in their four games together to start the season. The Texans are giving up a league-high 144.9 rushing yards per game to RBs.

  • Baker Mayfield is looking to make some noise coming out of his bye. Mayfield has a pair of seven-point fantasy performances surrounding a 30-point fantasy performance in his last three games. Sixth-round pick Jake Luton threw for 300+ yards and he posted 22.5 FPG in his first career start last week against the Texans, and Houston has now allowed 20+ FP to QBs in four straight games.

  • Jarvis Landry saw a season-high 44% of the targets (11) in his first game without Odell Beckham in Week 8, which he turned into 4/52 receiving. The Jaguars attacked the perimeter last week with Bradley Roby suspended as Keelan Cole had just a six-yards catch on two targets out of the slot.

  • Rashard Higgins managed just a 14-yard catch in ugly conditions in his first game in OBJ’s place after catching all six of his targets for 110 yards in Week 7. He’ll likely see a lot of Roby this week. Perimeter WRs D.J. Chark and Chris Conley combined for 14/198/1 receiving last week without Roby in the lineup.

  • Austin Hooper had 10+ FP in three straight games before his appendectomy as he posted exactly five catches in each of those contests after a slow start to the season. He will have additional competition for targets from Harrison Bryant and David Njoku taking on bigger roles during his absence. Hooper will face the Texans this week, who are allowing the eighth-most FPG to QBs (15.0). Tyler Eifert had his second-best game of the season against the Texans last week with 4/48 receiving.

Brolley’s Bets

Cleveland Browns -2.5 (Best Best)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3, 4-5 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (3-6, 5-4), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 22.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 6, 47.5 to 50.5
  • Weather: 58 degrees, 15% chance of rain, 10 mph
  • Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: WR Chris Godwin (finger), LG Ali Marpet (concussion), CB Carlton Davis (knee), OLB Shaq Barrett (shoulder), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (groin), WR Scotty Miller (hip)
  • Panthers Injuries to Watch: RB Christian McCaffrey (shoulder), LT Russell Okung (calf), S Jeremy Chinn (knee), DE Brian Burns (groin) DE Stephen Weatherly (finger), RB Reggie Bonnafon (ankle)

Buccaneers Trends

  • Tom Brady completed 22/38 passes for 209 yards (5.5 YPA) and three interceptions last week. Brady was off even with his full complement of weapons at his disposal, but he certainly wasn’t helped with Rob Gronkowski dropping a touchdown pass and with his O-line struggling to protect him all game long. Brady has now failed to reach 20+ FP in four of his last five games after scoring 22+ FP in three of his first four games. His one down game early in the season came against this week’s opponent, the Panthers. He managed just 217/1 passing against the Panthers in a 31-17 victory back in Week 2.
  • Chris Godwin posted 3/41 receiving on six targets last week as he led the group with a 94% snap share despite his recent finger surgery. Tyreek Hill posted 9/113/2 receiving last week as the team’s primary slot receiver against the Panthers
  • Antonio Brown played on 78% of the snaps in his Tampa debut, posting 3/31 receiving on five targets in his Tampa debut. Mecole Hardman posted 4/38 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Mike Evans led the Buccaneers with 4/64 receiving last week on six targets on 86% of the snaps. Bruce Arians called out Brady after the game for not throwing to Evans more in Week 9. Demarcus Robinson posted 3/34/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Gronk dropped a touchdown last week on his way to just 1/2 receiving on six targets last week. He ran seven-week low 19 routes last week with AB on the field, but that may have been because of the blowout nature of the contest with the Bucs opting for more 4-WR sets. Travis Kelce posted 10/159 receiving on 12 targets in this matchup last week.
  • Tampa Bay attempted just five carries in their loss, which set a new NFL-low for fewest rushing attempts in a game. Ronald Jones has seen his two lowest snap shares in the last two weeks at 24% and 32%. Jones has just 10/32 rushing and 7/32 receiving the last two weeks while Fournette has 16/52 rushing and 9/60 receiving in that span. The Panthers are allowing 144.0 scrimmage yards per game and 7.0 receptions per game to RBs.

Panthers Trends

  • The Panthers are allowing up to 5,240 fans this week.
  • The Panthers have covered five straight games as an underdog.
  • Carolina is 5-2 toward unders in its last seven games.
  • Christian McCaffrey significantly out-snapped (71% to 31%) and out-touched (28 to 7) Mike Davis in his first game back, but CMC could miss this week with a shoulder injury. Davis averaged just 56.0 scrimmage yards per game with one touchdown in his final three games as the team’s bell-cow back. Davis had 8/74 receiving filling in mid-game for an injured McCaffrey the last time these teams met in Week 2.
  • Teddy Bridgewater had a season-high 36 completions last week, which he turned into 310 yards (6.3 YPA) and two touchdowns. He threw for a season-high 367 yards (8.7 YPA) against the Buccaneers in Week 2, but he failed to throw for a touchdown and he uncharacteristically turned the ball over three times.
  • D.J. Moore has been crushed by Curtis Samuel’s emergence in recent weeks with Samuel out-targeting him 20-14 in the last three weeks. Moore has just 4/73 receiving in his last two games, but he did have season-highs in targets (13), catches (8), and receiving yards (120) the last time these teams met in Week 2.
  • Samuel has 17+ FP in three straight games after registering 12 touches for 118 scrimmage yards last week. He should stay heavily involved if CMC misses this week, and he had four carries for 26 yards with McCaffrey leaving early against the Bucs in Week 2.
  • Robby Anderson is the clear #1 here as he’s still seen 8+ targets the last three weeks even with Samuel emerging. Robby has reached double-digit FP in eight of his nine games despite failing to find the end zone since the season opener. He posted 9/109 receiving on 10 targets against the Buccaneers in Week 2.

Brolley’s Bets

Carolina Panthers +6.5 (Best Best)

Washington Football Team (2-6, 4-4 ATS) at Detroit Lions (3-5, 3-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Washington 21, Lions 25.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 4.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Washington Injuries to Watch:
  • Lions Injuries to Watch: WR Kenny Golladay (hip), TE TJ Hockenson (toe), RG Vaitai Halapoulivaati (foot), DT Nick Williams (shoulder), MLB Jarrad Davis (knee), OLB Christian Jones (knee)

Washington Trends

  • The Football Team has played under the total in four straight games.
  • Washington lost Kyle Allen for the season with a nasty dislocated ankle injury, which will leave this offense in Alex Smith’s hands for the time being. Smith completed 24/32 passes for 325 yards, one touchdown, and three INTs in comeback mode against the Giants last week. The Lions have the fourth-worst adjusted sack rate (4.2%), which will make the skittish Smith feel a little more comfortable.
  • Terry McLaurin posted his third straight game with seven catches last week, which was his fifth game with 7+ catches in eight tries. He finished with 7/115/1 receiving on eight targets against the Giants in Week 9, and he turned a deep crosser into a 68-yard touchdown by slipping two tackles and racing to the end zone. Smith and McLaurin connected on five of their six attempts for 87 yards, with their lone failed connection coming Smith’s game-sealing interception on Washington’s final drive of the game. The Lions are giving up the 13th-fewest FPG to WRs (35.8).
  • Logan Thomas had 13+ FP in consecutive games with Allen before posting 3/28 receiving on six targets last week. Irv Smith scored two touchdowns against the Lions last week.
  • Antonio Gibson has topped 60+ scrimmage yards just once in his last four games, which was the only game they won in that span. They enter this week as four-point road underdogs, but the Lions are giving up the most FPG to RB (35.0) and the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs (134.9)
  • J.D. McKissic saw a 36% target share last week with Smith jumping into the lineup. He has a 17% share for the season, which he should be able to maintain with Smith in the lineup. McKissic has 6+ catches in four of his last five games, with his only down game coming in a victory over the Cowboys.

Lions Trends

  • The Lions will not have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Lions are the only team that hasn’t covered a spread at home with an 0-3 ATS record at Ford Field.
  • Detroit has yet to win a game with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup or leaving early, with an average margin of defeat of 14.8 points.
  • The Lions climbed back to .500 after Week 7, but they’ve dropped their last two games by 34 combined points to fall back into the cellar in the NFC North.
  • Matthew Stafford cleared concussion protocol late in Week 9 so it looks like he should be good to go for this week. He’s thrown for multiple TDs just once in his last four games while the Football Team hasn’t allowed multiple passing TDs in three straight games.
  • T.J. Hockenson has posted 50+ receiving yards and/or scored a touchdown in every game. Evan Engram posted 5/48/1 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup last week.
  • Marvin Jones has reached 13+ FP in three straight games and he’s scored three TDs in his last two games. Washington is allowing the fewest FPG (25.8) and the second-fewest TDs per game to WRs (.4).
  • Danny Amendola has 10/131 receiving on 14 targets over the last two weeks Golladay leaving early or out of the lineup. The Football Team is allowing the fewest catches per game to WRs (10.0).
  • D’Andre Swift has out-snapped (48% to 29%) and out-carried (42 to 39) Adrian Peterson since their Week 5 bye. Swift has fallen flat in recent step-up spots against the Colts (10/23 scrimmage) and the Falcons (13/48), and he’ll face another top-10 defense against RBs this week. Washington is allowing just 3/4/18.4 receiving per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Washington Football Team +4.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

J.D. McKissic (Was) under 6.5 carries (Best Best)

D’Andre Swift (Det) over 65.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Best)

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7, 3-5 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (6-2, 6-2), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Jaguars 18, Packers 31.50
  • Spread/Total Movements: 14 to 13.5. 52.5 to 49.5
  • Weather: 38 degrees, 15% chance of rain, 25 mph
  • Jaguars Injuries to Watch: WR DJ Chark (illness) WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring), QB Gardner Minshew (thumb), LG Andrew Norwell (calf), RB Devine Ozigbo (hamstring)
  • Packers Injuries to Watch: CB Jaire Alexander (concussion), TE Robert Tonyan (ankle), TE Marcedes Lewis (knee), WR Darrius Shepherd (shoulder), CB Kevin King (quad)

Jaguars Trends

  • Jacksonville has the lowest implied team total this week.
  • The Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • Jake Luton made a splash in his first NFL start, connecting with D.J. Chark for a 73-yard TD on the second career pass attempt. He also engineered a potential game-tying drive in the final two minutes, but their two-point conversion failed with 90 seconds left. Luton finished with 304/1 passing with a rushing TD against the Texans. The Packers have held four QBs under 15 FP in their last five games.
  • Chark was the clear beneficiary from the QB switch as he saw 12 targets and he had a 53% air yards share on his way to 7/146/1 receiving. He’ll get a tough draw against Jaire Alexander, who will have 10 days to clear concussion protocol between Weeks 9 and 10. The Packers have held #1 WRs Adam Thielen (3/27) and Will Fuller (3/35/1) in check recently in Weeks 7-8.
  • Laviska Shenault has an on-going hamstring issue, which limited him to eight routes last week. He hasn’t reached 8+ FP since Week 5. Keelan Cole has just 2/18 receiving on four targets in his last two games.
  • James Robinson 25+ touches, 99+ scrimmage yards, and one TD in each of his last two games. He’s now averaging 19.9 touches per game and 100.7 scrimmage yards per game. The Packers have allowed 15+ FP to an individual back in six straight games.

Packers Trends

  • Green Bay has the highest implied team total this week.
  • The Packers will not have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Packers are 6-2 ATS and 6-2 toward overs this season.
  • Aaron Jones returned to the lineup in Week 9 after a two-week layoff for a calf injury and he didn’t have any limitations against the 49ers, posting 15/58 rushing and 5/21 receiving on 61% of the snaps. Jamaal Williams will return to the lineup to steal some touches. The Jaguars are allowing 143.1 scrimmage yards per game and 1.3 touchdowns per game to RBs.
  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 3+ TDs in six of his eight games this season, and he has 280+ passing yards and 3+ TDs in three straight games. The Jaguars have allowed 24+ FP to QBs in five of their eight games.
  • Davante Adams is averaging 32.4 FPG in his five full games this season, with double-digit targets and 6+ catches in each of those contests. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks combined for 8/183/2 receiving against the Jaguars last week.
  • Allen Lazard is likely to return to the lineup this week after nearly playing last week. Lazard posted 18+ FP in two of his first three games before needing core-muscle surgery.
  • Robert Tonyan has primarily been a small factor in the Packers offense since his blow-up game against the Falcons in Week 4 when he scored three touchdowns. He managed just a five-yard catch on his only target against the 49ers in Week 9, which gives him six or fewer FP in three of his last four games. Tonyan led the Packers TEs in snap share in Week 9 at just 62% as Marcedes Lewis (48%) and Jace Sternberger (27%) are also playing plenty of playing time. The Jaguars are giving up the fifth-most FPG to TEs (15.6).

Brolley’s Bets

Green Bay Packers -13 (Staff Picks Lean)

Davante Adams (GB) over 83.5 receiving yards (Best Best)

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1, 3-5 ATS) at New York Giants (2-7, 6-3), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Eagles 24, Giants 20.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 42 to 44.5
  • Weather: 56 degrees, 70% chance of rain, 10-15 mph
  • EaglesInjuries to Watch: RT Lane Johnson (ankle)
  • Giants Injuries to Watch: RB Devonta Freeman (ankle), WR Sterling Shepard (toe), WR Golden Tate (knee)

Eagles Trends

  • The Eagles are riding an eight-game outright winning streak in this series.
  • The road team has covered five straight games in this series.
  • Philly is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.
  • The Eagles have played over the total in four straight games as a road favorite.
  • Carson Wentz had four turnovers and he averaged an ugly 4.6 YPA against the Cowboys before his bye despite getting Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert back in the lineup. Wentz posted season-highs in passing yards (359) and in YPA (8.3) against the Giants in Week 7. Wentz is one of just two QBs (Big Ben) to reach 20+ FP against New York.
  • Travis Fulgham is the WR5 since getting his chance to play in Week 4 with 19.3 FPG. Fulgham wasn’t targeted against James Bradberry the last time these teams played as he finished with 5/73 receiving on 11 targets, which is his only game without a TD in five contests.
  • Reagor posted 3/16/1 receiving on six targets (21.4% target share) in Week 8, which was his first game back after a five-game layoff. John Hightower had a 59-yard catch against the Giants in Week 7 before Reagor returned.
  • Goedert had just a 15-yard catch in his first game back from an ankle injury in Week 8, but he did run a route on 76% of Wentz’s dropbacks. Goedert missed this matchup with the Giants back in Week 7, but his replacement, Richard Rodgers, managed 6/85 receiving on eight targets.
  • Miles Sanders is expected to return to the lineup this week off of a knee injury that’s kept him out the last two weeks. He has 99+ scrimmage yards in four of his five games this season. Boston Scott and company turned 20 touches into 126/1 scrimmage against the Giants in Week 7.

Giants Trends

  • The Giants are 4-0 against Washington and 2-19 against the rest of the league since the start of 2019.
  • The Giants will not have fans in attendance this week.
  • New York has covered three straight spreads and five of its last six since getting embarrassed by the 49ers in Week 3.
  • Daniel Jones has thrown for five TDs in his three games since Sterling Shepard returned to the lineup after throwing for three TDs in his first five games. He posted 187/2 passing and rushing yards against the Eagles in Week 7.
  • Sterling Shepard has established himself as Jones’ #1 receiver with 6+ catches and 8+ targets in three straight games since he returned to the lineup off of his foot injury. He’s at a 24% target share in each of those games. He posted 6/59/1 receiving against the Eagles in Week 7.
  • Evan Engram is coming on strong with 9+ targets and 5+ catches in each of his last three games with Shepard in the lineup. He posted 6/46 receiving on nine targets against the Eagles in Week 7.
  • Darius Slayton actually caught the first pass of last week’s game before getting blanked for the final 60 minutes despite playing 84% of the snaps. With Shepard and Engram emerging the last three weeks, Slayton has had to settle for scraps with 8/88 receiving on 13 targets in that span. Slayton has an uninspiring matchup with Darius Slay and company, whom he posted just 2/23 against in Week 7.
  • Wayne Gallman has fallen into the end zone in three straight games to give him 13+ FP in each of those contests. This backfield would be muddled if Devonta Freeman (ankle) is able to return to the lineup off of his ankle injury. Gallman posted 10/34/1 rushing and 5/20 receiving against the Eagles in Week 7 with Freeman leaving early in the second half.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Giants +3.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Miles Sanders (Phi) over 72.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Best)

Jalen Reagor (Phi) over 3.5 receptions (Best Best)

Late Afternoon Games

Buffalo Bills (7-2, 4-5 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3, 5-3), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bills 27, Cardinals 29.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 1.5 to 2.5, 54.5 to 56.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Bills Injuries to Watch: CB Tre’Davious White (ankle), S Micah Hyde (ankle), LG Cody Ford (ankle), CB Josh Norman (hamstring), RG Brian Winters (knee)
  • Cardinals Injuries to Watch: RB Kenyan Drake (ankle), S Budda Baker (groin), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (thigh), DT Leki Fotu (ankle), RG Justin Murray (hand), DE Jordan Phillips (hamstring), SS Deionte Thompson (knee), TE Maxx Williams (ankle)

Bills Trends

  • The Bills have played over the total in seven of their last nine games.
  • Buffalo snapped a four-game ATS losing streak last week.
  • The Bills had been mired in a funk in Weeks 5-8, averaging just 18.0 points per game after scoring 27+ points in every game of their 4-0 start.
  • Josh Allen and the offense got healthy against the Seahawks last week with the third-year QB throwing for 415 yards and four TDs and the Bills scoring 44 points. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 248/2 passing with 35 rushing yards against the Cardinals last week after Russell Wilson posted 388/3 passing and 6/84 rushing against Arizona before their bye.
  • Stefon Diggs already has as many catches as he had all of last season with 63. He now has 6+ catches in eight of his nine games and he’s topped 85+ yards in six of his nine games. Patrick Peterson and company have limited bigger #1 WRs in their last two games with DeVante Parker (6/64 receiving) and D.K. Metcalf (2/23) having quieter games.
  • John Brown looked healthy last week for the first time since early in the season. He posted season-highs in catches (8), targets (11), and yards (99) against the Seahawks last week. Brown had just 5/63 on 13 targets in his four previous games. Preston Williams had 4/60/1 receiving before leaving early last week.
  • Cole Beasley has seen just five targets for 5/63 receiving over his last two games after seeing 6+ targets in six of his first seven games. Tyler Lockett exploded for 15/200/3 receiving out of the slot in this matchup in Week 7.
  • Zack Moss’ snap rate has risen for four straight weeks (25%<47%<53%<56%), and he out-touched Devin Singletary (11 to 5) for the first time last week. Moss has three touchdowns in the last two weeks while Singletary has scored just once this season. The Cardinals are allowing 23.1/99.4/.5 rushing per game and 4.8/43.0/.4 receiving per game to RBs.

Cardinals Trends

  • Arizona has the second-highest implied team total this week.
  • The Cardinals are allowing up to 4,200 fans this week.
  • The Cardinals are 6-2 toward unders this season.
  • Kyler Murray is now on pace for 1086 rushing yards and 16 rushing TDs this season, and he’s finished inside the top-10 at the position in every game this season. The Bills have allowed 19+ FP in seven of their eight games this season, including 26.1 FP to Russell Wilson last week. They’ve also allowed four rushing TDs to QBs this season.
  • DeAndre Hopkins saw a season-low three targets last week after seeing 7+ targets in every game before their Week 8 bye. He’s now had three or fewer catches in two of his last three games. Top CB Tre’Davious White picked up an ankle injury last week. Nuk posted 6/90 receiving on eight targets against White and the Bills last season while playing with the Texans in the playoffs last season.
  • Christian Kirk has been sizzling hot with 20+ FP in three straight games and 10+ FP in five straight games. He has six TDs in that five-game span but he’s now seen eight targets in two straight games after seeing just 15 combined targets in Weeks 4-6. Secondary perimeter WR David Moore posted 4/71/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Chase Edmonds played on 95.6% of the snaps last week and he had 93% of the backfield touches, but it looks like Kenyan Drake is trending toward returning to the lineup. Drake had 13+ carries in every game before missing last week. Edmonds has 3+ catches in four of his last five games and in six of his eight contests. The Bills are allowing 101.4 rushing yards per game and 4.0/34.9 receiving per game.

Brolley’s Bets

Arizona Cardinals -1.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

John Brown (Buf) over 45.5 receiving yards (Best Best)

Denver Broncos (3-5, 5-3 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3, 5-3), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Broncos 23, Raiders 27.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 5.5 to 4.5, 52 to 50.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Broncos Injuries to Watch: TE Albert Okwuegbunam (ACL, IR), WR Jerry Jeudy (shoulder), WR Tom Patrick (hamstring), RT Demar Dotson (groin), CB Bryce Callahan (ankle),
  • Raiders Injuries to Watch: LT Kolton Miller (ankle), CB Trayvon Mullen (hamstring), A Johnathan Abram (groin), FB Alex Ingold (ribs),

Broncos Trends

  • These teams have played under the total in seven straight games in this series.
  • The Broncos are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games.
  • Drew Lock had his first two 20+ FP performances in catch-up mode the last two weeks, and he could be in a similar situation this week against the Raiders as 4.5-point road underdogs. The Raiders have allowed 285+ passing yards and multiple passing TDs to quarterbacks in four of the last five weeks. Lock now has two career 300-yard passing games and those performances have come in his only two indoor games in Houston last year and in Atlanta last week.
  • Jerry Jeudy is averaging 8.4 targets per game with a 35% air yards share in five full starts with Lock. After opening the season as a slot WR, Jeudy stuck on the perimeter last week for the second straight game even with Tim Patrick returning to the lineup. He’s posted 11/198/1 receiving on 24 targets since becoming a boundary receiver. The Raiders are middle of the pack against WRs with 37.2 FPG allowed.
  • Patrick has posted 12+ FP in four straight healthy contests with 7+ targets in three straight full contests. Mike Williams posted 5/81 receiving on seven targets against the Raiders last week.
  • K.J. Hamler has 10+ in his last two games since flipping position with Jeudy. Keenan Allen (9/103/1), Jarvis Landry (4/52), and Chris Godwin (9/88/1) have posted big games out of the slot in each of the last three weeks.
  • Noah Fant is struggling through an ankle injury right now as he hasn’t topped 50+ receiving yards in three straight games. Backup TE Albert Okwuegbunam (ACL, IR) is done for the season, and he leaves behind a team-high five end-zone targets. Just two TEs have reached double-digit FP against the Raiders this season.
  • Melvin Gordon out-snapped Phillip Lindsay 44 to 28 last week with the Broncos playing from behind, but he turned those snaps into just 6/18 rushing with a nine-yard catch on his only target. Lindsay wasn’t much better with 8/23 rushing without a catch on three targets. Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley combined for 143/1 scrimmage against the Raiders last week.

Raiders Trends

  • The Raiders will not have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Raiders have played over the total in seven of their eight games with their one under coming in nasty weather.
  • Las Vegas has covered five straight games in this series.
  • Derek Carr completed just 13 passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns in Week 9 after he threw for just 111/1 passing in ugly conditions against the Browns in Week 8. The Broncos have been more of a pass-funnel defense this season, and Denver allowed Matt Ryan and Justin Herbert to throw for 275+ yards and three TDs in consecutive games.
  • Carr has been a much more willing downfield thrower with Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs on the field as he’s third in the league with 381/4 passing on 20+ yard passes since Week 5. It hasn’t translated into production for Ruggs, who has yet to see more than five targets in a game this season.
  • Those deep balls have translated to fantasy success for Agholor as he’s leading the league with his 20.4 YPR average. He’s posted touchdowns and 13+ FP in four out of his last five games with his only down game coming in windy, sloppy conditions in Cleveland in Week 8. Olamide Zaccheaus posted 4/103/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Darren Waller is averaging a position-best 8.9 targets per game but his aDOT is sitting at a pathetic 5.6 yards. He has 5+ catches in seven of his eight games this season, but he’s posted more than 50 yards in just two games. Hayden Hurst posted 7/62 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
  • Josh Jacobs missed practice time before Week 9 because of an illness and a knee injury, which was notable since Jacobs played on just 56% of the snaps against the Chargers. He finished with 14/65/1 rushing and he caught his only target for three yards as his receiving production continues to underwhelm in recent weeks. Devontae Booker saw a season-high 26% snap share and he turned his additional playing time into 8/68/1 rushing. Jacobs scored his sixth touchdown last week, but the Raiders could have three backs involved going forward since Jalen Richard already sees snaps in passing situations. The Broncos are giving up the eighth-fewest FPG to RBs (20.6), including 13.5 to Todd Gurley last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Las Vegas Raiders -4.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Phillip Lindsay (Den) over 47.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Best)

Nelson Agholor (LV) over 40.5 receiving yards (Best Best)

Los Angeles Chargers (2-6, 5-3 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (5-3, 6-2), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Chargers 23.5, Dolphins 25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 1.5
  • Weather: 80 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
  • Chargers Injuries to Watch: RB Justin Jackson (knee), DE Joey Bosa (concussion), RT Bryan Bulaga (back)
  • Dolphins Injuries to Watch: WR Preston Williams (foot, IR), DT Christian Wilkins (COVID-19 list), LB Kyle Van Noy (COVID-19 list), RB Matt Breida (hamstring), TE Durham Smythe (concussion)

Chargers Trends

  • The Chargers dropped to 3-15 in one-score games since the start of last season following yet another excruciating loss, this time to the Raidickelers in Week 9.
  • The Chargers have just a -11 point differential despite their 2-6 record.
  • Chargers’ games are averaging a combined 62.4 points scored with five overs in their last five contests.
  • Justin Herbert is averaging 306.6 passing yards per game, and he’s posted 260+ passing yards with multiple TDs in five straight games. Kyler Murray just ripped the Dolphins for 283/3 passing and 106/1 rushing last week, but they’re still giving up the 17th-most FPG (20.1).
  • Keenan Allen is averaging a ridiculous 9.3/97.5/.5 receiving per game on 12.7 targets per game in his six contests with Herbert this season. He plays the majority of his snaps in the slot so he’ll Byron Jones and Xavien Howard some on the perimeter.
  • Mike Williams has posted 80+ receiving yards with five catches in three of his last four games with Herbert. He posted 5/81 receiving on seven targets against the Raiders, and he just missed hauling in the game-winning touchdown on an end-zone fade in the final second of the game. He’ll see the most of Jones and Howard this week, and the Dolphins just got ripped by vertical threat Christian Kirk for 5/123/1 receiving.
  • Hunter Henry hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards in each of his last five games even with Herbert exploding. He’s at least seen 7+ targets in six of eight games. The Dolphins gave up two touchdowns to the Cardinals TEs last week, which was more TDs than they had allowed in their first seven games.
  • The Chargers backfield is an absolute mess after Justin Jackson left after just three snaps (and no touches) against the Raiders because of a knee injury in Week 9. Kalen Ballage came off the practice squad to lead the Chargers with 17/84/1 scrimmage after Jackson’s injury while Joshua Kelley played second fiddle with 14/59 from scrimmage. Troymaine Pope (concussion) could return to the lineup this week while Jackson is very much up in the air. The Chargers are allowing the eighth-most FPG to RBs this season (25.5).

Dolphins Trends

  • The Dolphins are allowing fans at nearly 20% capacity.
  • The Dolphins extended their outright and ATS win streaks to four consecutive victories with their 34-31 decision over the Cardinals as six-point road underdogs.
  • Miami is 6-2 ATS with a league-best cover margin of 11.1 points.
  • Tua Tagovailoa’s aDOT went from a meager 4.7 yards in Week 8 to 9.4 yards last week, and he also showed some potential as a runner with 35 rushing yards on seven carries. The Chargers are giving up the fourth-most FPG to QBs (22.1) this season.
  • DeVante Parker is the clear top receiver with Preston Williams (foot, IR) out of the lineup. The Dolphins are down to the likes Jakeem Grant, Antonio Callaway, and Mack Hollins behind him. He’s seen just nine targets in his first two games with Tua, posting 7/67/1 receiving. The Chargers are giving up the eighth-fewest FPG to WRs (33.4).
  • Mike Gesicki has 4/50 receiving on six targets in his first two games with Tua, but he could potentially see more targets with Williams out. Darren Waller and Noah Fant each scored 11+ FP in this matchup in the last two weeks, and the Chargers have given up six TDs to TEs this season.
  • The Dolphins don’t have a running game to speak of with Myles Gaskin (knee) and Matt Breida (hamstring) currently out. Salvon Ahmed led the backfield with 28 snaps for 7/38 scrimmage while Jordan Howard (21 snaps, 10/19/1) and Patrick Laird (12, 2/16) also mixed in. Miami will also add DeAndre Washington to the mix this week so good luck trying to figure out this backfield this week. The Chargers did get ripped for 22/133/2 rushing against Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins -2.5 (Best Best)

Keenan Allen (LAC) over 6.5 receptions (Best Best)

San Francisco 49ers (4-5, 4-5 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (6-2, 3-5), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: 49ers 19.75, Saints 29.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 8 to 9.5, 51 to 49
  • Weather: Dome
  • 49ers Injuries to Watch: WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring), S Jaquiski Tartt (toe, IR), CB K’Waun Williams (ankle, IR), RB Tevin Coleman (knee)
  • Saints Injuries to Watch: WR Michael Thomas (ankle/hamstring), QB Drew Brees (throwing shoulder), RT Ryan Ramczyk (back), C Erik McCoy (elbow)

49ers Trends

  • The 49ers beat the Saints 48-46 back in December last season with a much different team.
  • The Saints defense held Tom Brady and company to three points and 4.2 yards per play.
  • Nick Mullens has five turnovers in his last two starts against the Packers and the Eagles, but he was working with a shell crew last week. He still could be pulled at any time for C.J. Beathard. The Saints just had their best defensive performance last week as they picked off Brady three times with three sacks.
  • Deebo Samuel (hamstring) isn’t practicing early in the week so it could be the Brandon Aiyuk and Richie James show this week. Aiyuk posted 14/206/1 receiving on 17 targets in two games with Samuel leaving early or out in Weeks 7-8.
  • James erupted for 9/184/1 receiving on 13 targets against the Packers with Aiyuk and Samuel out of the lineup last week. The Saints had allowed three WR teammates to reach 10+ FP in Weeks 6-7 (Panthers and Bears) before they slowed down the Buccaneers trio last week.
  • Jordan Reed flopped in his first game with George Kittle (foot, IR) out of the lineup last week, registering just a three-yard catch. Reed had missed the previous five games with a knee injury so they eased him back into the lineup in a short week for a Thursday night contest. HC Kyle Shanahan also limited him to 23% of the snaps because the 49ers were getting blown out for the entire second half of the game, which enabled Ross Dwelley to catch all three of his second-half targets for 52 yards. The Saints have been tightening up against opposing TEs, but they’re still allowing 16.9 FPG to the position (3rd-most) and Rob Gronkowski dropped a touchdown last week.
  • It looks like the 49ers will give Raheem Mostert an extra two weeks to heal his ankle with their bye on deck in Week 11. Jerick McKinnon operated as the bell-cow back at the expense of JaMycal Hasty against the Packers last week, turning in 15/68/1 scrimmage. The 49ers also fell behind early, which forced them to abandon the run earlier than they wanted. They might be in a similar situation this week as 9.5-point road underdogs against the Saints. New Orleans is allowing just 69.6 rushing yards per game and 3.6 YPC to RBs, but the Buccaneers RBs posted 9/50 receiving last week playing from behind.

Saints Trends

  • The Saints are expected to allow up to 6,000 fans this week.
  • New Orleans played under the total for the first time last week with its defense shutting down the Buccaneers.
  • The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
  • Drew Brees and company were busy spreading the rock around last week as 12 different receivers registered receptions against the Buccaneers. He’s posted 19+ FP in four straight games with nine TD passes and two rushing TDs in that span. Aaron Rodges and Russell Wilson have each thrown for four TDs against the 49ers in the last two games.
  • Michael Thomas made it through his first game of the season unscathed. He posted 5/51 receiving on six targets on a team-high 28 routes in Week 9, which was his first game action since he suffered his high-ankle injury at the tail end of their Week 1 showdown with Tampa Bay. Thomas easily led the league with 184 targets and 11.5 targets per game last season, but he’s unlikely to be the ball-hog he was in 2019 with Alvin Kamara healthy and with Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook commanding weekly targets. Davante Adams (10/173/1) and D.K. Metcalf (12/161/2) have smoked the 49ers in the last two weeks.
  • Tre’Quan Smith ran as the #2 WR last week with 24 routes and a touchdown while Emmanuel Sanders posted 4/38/1 receiving on 14 routes. It was Sanders’ first game back after a stay on the COVID-19 list so he could see more playing time this week. Secondary receivers MVS (2/53/2) and David Moore (3/18/1) have come through against the 49ers.
  • Jared Cook finally had some negative TD luck last week. He fumbled just short of the goal line while his backups Adam Trautman and Josh Hill scored against the Bucs. He still has 13 TDs in 21 career games with the Saints. The 49ers are giving up just 8.9 FPG to TEs (6th-fewest) and they allowed their second TD of the season to a TE last week.
  • Alvin Kamara had season-lows in touches (14) and yards (49) with Thomas back in the lineup and with the Saints dominating the Bucs. The 49ers are allowing the second-fewest FPG to RBs (18.6), but Aaron Jones and Tyler Ervin combined for 151 yards last week while DeeJay Dallas scored two TDs two weeks ago.

Brolley’s Bets

San Francisco 49ers +10 (Staff Picks Lean)

Alvin Kamara (NO) over 97.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Best)

Seattle Seahawks (6-2, 5-3 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (5-3, 4-4), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Seahawks 26.25, Rams 28.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 1 to 2, 55.5 to 54.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Seahawks Injuries to Watch: RB Chris Carson (foot), RB Carlos Hyde (hamstring), RB Travis Homer (knee), CB Quinton Dunbar (knee), CB Shaq Griffin (concussion), LB K.J. Wright (ankle), DT Jarran Reed (knee), C Ethan Pocic (concussion)
  • Rams Injuries to Watch: WR Cooper Kupp (wrist), RB Darrell Henderson (quad), OLB Leonard Floyd (knee)

Seahawks Trends

  • The Seahawks have played over the total in seven of their eight games.
  • The Seahawks have dropped two consecutive games on the road as they head for Los Angeles this weekend.
  • Russell Wilson scored 25+ FP for the seventh time in eight games last week even though he turned the rock over four times. He’s either thrown for 360+ yards and/or thrown for 3+ TDs in every game this season. The Rams have allowed more than 18+ FP just twice this season and Josh Allen is the only QB to top 25+ FP with 311/4 passing back in Week 3.
  • D.K. Metcalf has 100+ yards and/or scored a touchdown in seven of his eight games. He’ll see some of Jalen Ramsey this week and the Rams have done a good job of limiting other #1 WRs like DeVante Parker (1/3/1) and Allen Robinson (4/70) in their last two games.
  • Tyler Lockett hasn’t reached 45 receiving yards and scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, but he just missed on a couple of TDs last week. The Rams are allowing the second-fewest FPG to WRs (27.2), including a league-low 123.4 receiving yards per game.
  • Chris Carson (foot) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) are very much up in the air again for Week 10. DeeJay Dallas scored a touchdown for the second straight week in their absence but he saw his snap share plummet from 79% to 31% with Travis Homer healthier and with the Seahawks trailing all game against the Bills. Homer posted 3/64 receiving while Alex Collins even saw some snaps for his first action since 2018. The Rams are allowing 81.3 rushing yards per game and 5.8/44.0 receiving per game to RBs.

Rams Trends

  • The Rams will not have fans in attendance this week.
  • These teams have played over the total in four out of their last five games.
  • The Rams have played under the total in five straight games.
  • The Seahawks are allowing a league-high 455.8 yards per game and the third-most points per game at 30.4.
  • Jared Goff averaged 31.8 attempts per game in his first seven games before the Dolphins forced him to throw 61 times in a loss before their Week 9 bye. The Rams have been dedicated to the run all season, but they’ll be forced to throw more this week against a Seahawks defense that just saw the Bills totally abandon their running game to exploit their pass defense. The Seahawks are allowing by far the most passing yards per game (366.4) to opposing passers so this is a get-well spot for Goff, who has topped 7.0 YPA just once in his last five games.
  • Darrell Henderson has fallen below 10 FP in three straight games and he’s dealing with a thigh injury, which gives some hope to rookie Cam Akers to see a bigger role coming out of their bye. Malcolm Brown could also have a bigger role this week if the Rams skew a little more pass-heavy against the Seahawks since he’s been the preferred passing-down option. The Seahawks are allowing just 3.6 YPC and 66.5 rushing yards per game while backs are averaging 6.9/50.9 receiving per game.
  • Robert Woods is coming off his best game with the Rams going pass-heavy against the Dolphins as he posted 7/85/1 receiving and 2/9/1 rushing. Stefon Diggs posted 9/118 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Cooper Kupp is dealing with a wrist injury after seeing a career-high 20 targets in their last game, which he turned into 11/110 receiving in a bizarre game script against the Dolphins. Kupp posted 13/162/2 receiving against the Seahawks last season.
  • Josh Reynolds was clearly ahead of Van Jefferson before their Week 9 bye. He ran routes on 85% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks over the last four games, which has helped him post 44+ receiving yards in four straight games. Gabriel Davis and John Brown combined for 12/169/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Gerald Everett has 4+ targets and 3+ catches in four straight games while Tyler Higbee has topped 9+ FP just once this season. The Seahawks have allowed TDs to TEs in each of the last two weeks but no tight end has yet to reach double-digit FP against them.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Rams -1 (Best Best)

Robert Woods (LAR) over 59.5 receiving yards (Best Best)

D.K. Metcalf (Sea) over 74.5 receiving yards (Best Best)

Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1, 6-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0, 6-2), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bengals 19.25, Steelers 26.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 9 to 7, 75.5 to 45.5
  • Weather: 53 degrees, 55% chance of rain, 15-20 mph
  • Bengals Injuries to Watch: RB Joe Mixon (foot), LT Jonah Williams (stinger), RT Bobby Hart (knee), CB Darius Phillips (groin)
  • Steelers Injuries to Watch: QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee/COVID-19 list), TE Vance McDonald (COVID-19, out), slot CB Mike Hilton (shoulder), DE Tyson Alualu (knee), DE Isaiah Buggs (ankle), RB Anthony McFarland (illness)

Bengals Trends

  • These teams have played under the total in four straight games.
  • Cincy is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
  • The Bengals are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games.
  • Joe Burrow is averaging 41.3 passes per game through eight games, which has helped him to throw for 300+ yards and/or multiple TDs in six of his eight games. The Steelers have to allow a QB to reach 20+ FP as seven of the eight QBs they faced have scored between 15-19 FP.
  • Tyler Boyd has posted 5+ catches and 50+ yards in six of his eight games, including in his last three contests before their bye. CeeDee Lamb (4/71/1) and Willie Snead (5/106) have burned the Steelers out of the slot in the last two weeks.
  • Tee Higgins has 4+ catches and 40+ yards in every game since he became a full-time player in Week 3, which includes a three-game run before their bye with 5+ catches and 70+ yards. Amari Cooper posted 5/67 receiving in this matchup last week
  • A.J. Green was heading in the right direction before dropping a 2/19 receiving line against the Titans before their bye. He had seen 24 targets in Weeks 6-7 for 15/178 receiving. Michael Gallup managed 3/36 and Miles Boykin had 3/20/1 receiving in this matchup over the last two weeks.
  • Giovani Bernard posted 20+ FP for the second straight game before their Week 9 bye with Joe Mixon out of the lineup. Mixon, who has been nursing a mid-foot sprain, has reached 19+ touches in each of his six games, with 14+ FP in each of his last three games. The Steelers are allowing the fewest FPG to RBs (17.7) and Miles Sanders is the only RB to top 17+ FP.

Steelers Trends

  • Pittsburgh is allowed to host up to 7,500 fans.
  • The Steelers are the last undefeated team in the NFL.
  • The Steelers snapped a five-game ATS win streak last week against the Cowboys.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with knee injuries and he was placed on the COVID-19 list as a high-risk contact. He’ll likely play if he returns negative tests before Sunday’s game. Roethlisberger led a Steelers comeback by completing 29/42 passes for 306 yards and three TDs against the Cowboys. He’s averaging a career-low 6.7 YPA this season. The Bengals have allowed multiple TDs (passing/rushing) to QBs in seven straight games.
  • Diontae Johnson has seen double-digit targets and a 29% target share in his four full healthy games this season. The Bengals have allowed seven different receivers to reach double-digit FP in their last seven games.
  • Chase Claypool has run 69 routes over the last two weeks with a full stable of Steelers receivers, which is well ahead of James Washington’s nine routes. It’s helped him turn in consecutive games with 15+ FP with 13/111/1 receiving on 21 targets. Both A.J. Brown and Corey Davis scored TDs against the Bengals in Cincy’s last game.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster is surging in recent weeks with 7+ targets, 6+ catches, and 65+ yards in three straight games. Slot WRs Jarvis Landry (5/48) and Zach Pascal (4/54/1) have had some success in this matchup since Week 6.
  • Eric Ebron has 10.7 FPG since Week 3 to rank as the TE7. He’s scored 11+ FP in three straight games and he’s averaging 5.9 targets per game since seeing just two targets in his first game with the Steelers. The Steelers will also be without Vance McDonald (COVID-19 list) this week, which could be a small boost for Ebron going against a Bengals defense that’s allowing second-most FPG to TEs (17.7).
  • James Conner’s Week 9 performance against the Cowboys was reminiscent of his season-opening dud against the Giants on national TV as he managed just 9/22 rushing and 2/-2 receiving against the Cowboys. He posted just 4 FP against the Cowboys, which snapped a six-game streak with 14+ FP in Weeks 2-8. Conner had registered 57% of the snaps or better in each of his last six games before playing just 48% of the snaps against the Cowboys with the Steelers playing from behind most of the game. He has a great spot to rebound against a Bengals defense that’s allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (124.1).

Brolley’s Bets

Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Giovani Bernard (Cin) over 59.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Best)

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at New England Patriots (3-5, 3-5), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Ravens 25.25, Patriots 18.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 7, 41.5 to 43.5
  • Weather: 49 degrees, 50% chance of rain, 10-15 mph
  • Ravens Injuries to Watch: RB Mark Ingram (ankle), DE Calais Campbell (calf), OLB Matthew Judon (calf), CB Jimmy Smith (ankle)
  • Patriots Injuries to Watch: CB Stephon Gilmore (knee), RB Damien Harris (chest)

Ravens Trends

  • The Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
  • The Ravens offense remains broken for now as they averaged just 4.2 yards per play in their 14-point victory over the Colts. The Patriots defense might have more issues than the Ravens offense right now after allowing 27 points and 7.3 yards per play to the Jets.
  • Lamar Jackson is averaging 6.3 YPA and he’s completing just 58.5% of his passes in his last six games, but he’s posted 55+ rushing yards in each of his last three games with two rushing TDs. The Patriots are giving up the fourth-fewest FPG to QBs (16.3), but Joe Flacco just shredded them for 262/3 passing last week.
  • Mark Andrews hasn’t scored more than 6 FP in each of his last three games while five averaging targets per game. He hasn’t seen an end-zone target in his last two games after seeing seven EZ targets in his first six games. The Patriots are giving up the fewest FPG to the position (7.3) and they’ve limited George Kittle (5/55) and Travis Kelce (3/70) before him.
  • Hollywood Brown hasn’t reached 10+ FP in his last three games, and he’s seen more than six targets in a game just twice this season. We’ll see about the status of Stephon Gilmore (knee) but the Patriots secondary just got roasted by Breshad Perriman for 5/101/2 receiving and Denzel Mims also had 4/62.
  • Mark Ingram (ankle) is up in the air this week after missing the last two games. J.K. Dobbins had 30/156 scrimmage while Gus Edwards had 29/121/2 scrimmage during his two-game absence, but this backfield is likely to go back to being a three-man backfield. The Ravens will try to get their busted run game on track against a Patriots defense that’s allowing 4.7 YPC to RBs, including six RB rushing TDs in their last three games.

Patriots Trends

  • New England has the lowest implied team total this week.
  • The Patriots will not have fans in attendance this week.
  • The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • New England is 4-1 toward under in its last five home games.
  • Cam Newton has strung together 19+ FP in consecutive games with three rushing TDs in that span. He’s still thrown for just two TDs with seven INTs this season. The Ravens have limited four straight QBs to under 230 passing yards, but they have allowed three QB rushing TDs.
  • Jakobi Meyers has seen a 40% target share in the last two weeks for 18/227 receiving on 24 targets while playing 98.6% of the snaps. He’s clearly locked in as Cam’s most trusted WR with Julian Edelman (knee, IR) hurt and N’Keal Harry disappointing. Zach Pascal (5/55) and JuJu Smith-Schuster have had some success in this matchup out of the slot, but the Ravens will get Marlon Humphrey back in the lineup.
  • Damiere Byrd reached 5+ catches and 65+ yards for the third time in eight games last week. Harry will be back this week off of his concussion, and the Ravens are allowing the sixth-fewest FPG to WRs (33.5).
  • Damien Harris picked up a chest injury at the end of Week 9, but he’s clearly the best lead runner they have even when Sony Michel returns to the lineup. He’s posted 10+ carries and 55+ rushing yards in three straight games while averaging more than 5.0 YPC in each contest. The Ravens limited Jonathan Taylor and Jordan Wilkins to 17/66/1 rushing last week.
  • Rex Burkhead led all Patriots RBs with 15/67/1 scrimmage last week while James White has totaled just 11/62 scrimmage in his last three games. The Ravens are allowing 5.6/38.3/.1 receiving per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (Best Best)

Jakobi Meyers (NE) over 49.5 receiving yards (Best Best)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.