Best Bets: Week 10


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Best Bets: Week 10

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Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.

Tom Brolley

Game Picks

Best Bets ATS Record: 24-25-2 (-4.42 units); W10: 3-3 (-.27 units)

Overall ATS Record: 80-65-2 (55.2%); W10: 7-7 (50%)

Totals Record: 3-3 (-.04 units)

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, FanDuel) at New England Patriots

The Patriots couldn’t slow down the Jets last week, and they’re offense is going to struggle to move the ball against a good Ravens defense this week. Baltimore should dominate on both sides of the ball and I like the Ravens at -7, but I’m going to pay a little extra juice to get the -6.5. Risk one unit at -120 to win .83 units (Nov. 15)

Tennessee Titans (+1, FanDuel) vs. Indianapolis Colts

I agreed with the opening line on this contest when the Titans were sitting as two-point favorites since I had the Titans favored around 2.5 points. This line has swung in the Colts favor on Wednesday afternoon with news that T.Y. Hilton would suit up for the Colts and with news that Corey Davis may not play after his brother’s tragic death. I’m grabbing the Titans getting a point while I can but I’m fine betting the Titans giving up to a -1.5 if the line swings back the other direction. I’ve been higher on the Titans than the Colts since this summer and it mostly boils down to the quarterback position. The Colts are the better statistical team, but I don’t trust the Colts’ 38-year-old quarterback to be his sharpest on the road with a short week of rest after playing a physical Ravens defense. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 11)

Cleveland Browns (-2.5, DraftKings) vs. Houston Texans

I broke this game down as part of my Week 10 Opening Line Report. The Browns should be much healthier coming out of their bye with Nick Chubb, Wyatt Teller, and Austin Hooper each likely to return to the lineup. The Browns did place Baker Mayfield on the COVID-19 list as a high-risk contact, but he could be cleared for practice later this week if he has negative tests early in the week. I believe this line will close in the 3.5 to 4.5 point range later this week so I’m grabbing this line while it’s under a field goal. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 9)

Los Angeles Rams (-1, DraftKings) vs. Seattle Seahawks

I broke this game down as part of my Week 10 Opening Line Report. HC Sean McVay had some offensive issues to fix over their bye week, and Seattle’s defense is certainly a get-well unit as we saw with the Bills and Josh Allen in Week 9. This will also be the best defense the Seahawks have faced this season so we’ll see if Russell Wilson can do whatever he wants against this secondary. I believe this line will close north of two points and it may even reach a full field goal. I like the Rams side this week so I’m going to lock in this bet while the line is at its lowest point this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 9)

Miami Dolphins (-2.5, DraftKings) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

I broke this game down as part of my Week 10 Opening Line Report. I just don’t see this line holding under a field goal after what we’ve seen the Dolphins do to their opponents over the last couple of weeks. I also don’t see people lining up to bet the Chargers this week after a yet another soul-crushing loss and failed ATS cover. I believe this line will finish in the 3-to-4 point range later this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 9)

Carolina Panthers (+6.5, DraftKings) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I broke this game down as part of my Week 10 Opening Line Report. The Buccaneers are still getting a lot of respect after consecutive bad performances against the Giants and the Buccaneers while the Panthers aren’t seemingly getting enough love for their performance against the Chiefs last week. We’ll see about Christian McCaffrey’s availability for the week after he suffered a shoulder injury in his return to the lineup in Week 9, but I still see value in the Panthers at this price. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 9)

Player Props

Record: 85-71 (+7.76 units); W10: 7-9 (-2.40 units)

All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.

  • Michael Pittman (Ind) over 30.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)

  • Miles Sanders (Phi) over 72.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Jalen Reagor (Phi) over 3.5 receptions (+125, DraftKings) (W)

  • Davante Adams (GB) over 83.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • Robert Woods (LAR) over 59.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • D.K. Metcalf (Sea) over 74.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • John Brown (Buf) over 45.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill) (W)

  • Alvin Kamara (NO) over 97.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Keenan Allen (LAC) over 6.5 receptions (+100, William Hill) (L)

  • J.D. McKissic (Was) under 6.5 carries (+101, DraftKings) (L)

  • D’Andre Swift (Det) over 65.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Phillip Lindsay (Den) over 47.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • Nelson Agholor (LV) over 40.5 receiving yards (+105, DraftKings) (L)

  • Giovani Bernard (Cin) over 59.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • Jakobi Meyers (NE) over 49.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Nick Foles (Chi) over 23.5 completions (-112, DraftKings)