2025 Week 2 DFS Coverage Shells

What’s going on, everyone? I hope Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season treated you well!

Week 2 is now upon us, and I will once again be covering some of the early Sunday games and giving you some coverage matchup advantages. We have only a one-game sample to draw from in 2025, but I will ensure that I prioritize team/coordinator/player tendencies from past seasons.

Let’s get right to it!

Team Defenses

Team Offenses

JAX @ CIN

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) hit the road and get set to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at 1:00 PM EDT on Sunday. The Bengals are currently 3.5-point favorites, and the game total is hovering around 48.5 points. The game total is the highest on the entire Week 2 slate outside of TN,F and the Bengals’ 26 implied team total is tied for 4th in the league.

The game total was at 50.5 earlier in the week, with JAX taking the brunt of the lower offensive projections. Both of these teams are coming off victories in Week 1. JAX defeated CAR by a final score of 26-10 (JAX covered), while CIN narrowly defeated CLE with a final score of 17-16.

Joe Burrow ($6,600) is priced as the DK QB5 and Trevor Lawrence ($5,600) as the QB17. I think these QBs have all the goods to facilitate the pass catchers in this matchup.

There is some uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball as both teams enter 2025 with new defensive play-callers.

JAX hired Anthony Campanile to be their defensive coordinator. Campanile was previously the LB coach/running game coordinator for GB in 2024, and before that was the MIA LB coach from 2020-2023.

CIN hired Al Golden to fill their respective DC role in January. Golden served as the Notre Dame DC from 2022-2024 and before that was with the CIN organization from 2020-2021 as their LB coach.

This tweet is from the preseason:

Funny enough, in Week 1, CIN deployed Cover 1 on 35% of their coverage snaps (4th) and Cover 6 at a 33% clip (1st). Definitely worth noting going foward.

JAX WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,700) is priced as the DK WR10 this week. Thomas is coming off a disappointing fantasy outing, ending Week 1 with just 1 reception and 9 points despite garnering 7 targets.

EARLY Snap share on early downs

THIRD Snap share on third down

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points

PTS Actual fantasy points

DK SALARY DFS salary for upcoming game

Thomas is an obvious bounce-back candidate in an implied negative game script vs CIN. Last week, I wrote about how CAR was likely to run some coverage disguises vs JAX, and they ended up doing just that. CAR rotated their safeties pre-snap to post-snap on 61% of their coverage snaps.

Last season, Brian Thomas Jr. averaged just 1.87 yards per route run and 0.34 fantasy points per route run vs these “disguised” looks. Against “static” coverage looks, he averaged 2.86 YPRR and 0.64 FPRR.

CIN WR Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100) is the highest priced DK WR this week, while Tee Higgins ($6,100) is priced as the DK WR17.

Chase put up just 4.6 points on 5 targets in the season opener, while Higgins finished with 6.3 points on 4 targets.

CLE has notoriously been a tough matchup on the CIN passing unit. It’s also worth mentioning that Joe Burrow checked the ball down on nearly 20% of his throws last week, which stood as the highest mark of all QBs.

Last season, JAX allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing QBs (+4.6) and the 2nd-most to opposing WRs (+4.2). Given the team total and last week’s disappointing usage I think these guys are primed for bounceback Week 2 performances.

In Week 1, JAX deployed zone coverage at an 83% clip and two-high shells at 53%. JAX won by more than 2 touchdowns. Looking at the 1st half, they ran zone 83% and two-high at just 39%, and during the 2nd half, ran zone 82% and two-high shells 64%. I would say zone is the stickier variable here.

Last season, Ja’Marr Chase averaged 3.11 YPRR and owned 73% of the team’s receiving touchdowns vs zone coverage. Tee Higgins averaged 2.15 YPRR and owned 11% of the touchdowns.

CHI @ DET

Our next matchup is an NFC North showdown between the visiting Chicago Bears (0-1) and the Detroit Lions (0-1) on Sunday at 1:00 PM EDT. The Lions are currently 6-point home favorites with the game total hovering around 46.5 points. The Lions 26.5 implied team total is tied for the 2nd-highest on the entire Week 2 slate.

Both teams are coming off losses to divisional opponents in their season openers. DET lost 27-13 on the road in GB and CHI lost 27-24 at home vs MIN.

This offseason, CHI hired Ben Johnson as their new head coach. He previously served as the DET offensive coordinator spanning the last few seasons, so this Sunday’s matchup will be his first time back at the old stomping grounds.

CHI also hired a new defensive coordinator in Dennis Allen. Prior to this, Allen was with the NO organization, serving as their DC from 2015-2021 before his promotion to HC where he served from 2022 up until his in-season firing in 2024.

Coverage-tendency wise, there are some clear distinctions between Allen and former Bears HC Matt Eberflus (now the Cowboys DC):

In Week 1, DAL deployed zero man coverage snaps while CHI ran man at a 50% clip. Dennis Allen is inherently more aggressive and notably so during the season opener without arguably their top coverage defenders in CB Jaylon Johnson and nickel/swiss army knife Kyler Gordon.

Johnson is trending to play in Week 2 while Gordon likely doesn’t suit up:

Jared Goff ($6,000) is priced as the DK QB11, and Caleb Williams ($5,400) is priced as the QB21. Goff’s price relative to his team total in their 2025 Ford Field debut after dropping a stinker in Week 1 piques my interest, even without Ben Johnson wearing a headset on their sideline.

Since the start of 2024, Goff is by far the most efficient fantasy QB vs man coverage, averaging nearly a full point per dropback:

Let’s take a look at the pass catchers in this one:

EARLY Snap share on early downs

THIRD Snap share on third down

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points

PTS Actual fantasy points

DK SALARY DFS salary for upcoming game

DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,000) is priced as the DK WR7. Last week, St. Brown had just 8.5 fantasy points on 5 targets despite the negative game script. 4 of those 5 targets came in the 1st half, and all 4 of his receptions moved the chains.

Last season, St. Brown’s worst fantasy outing occurred in Week 1 (4.5 points). After that performance, he went on to score 20+ fantasy points in each of the next 3 games leading up to their Week 5 bye.

In 2023, Denis Allen’s defense allowed the highest percentage of their opponent’s targets to go to slot (37%). In 2024 his defense ranked 3rd (35%). Without nickel CB Kyler Gordon it could be a field day for Amon-Ra St. Brown.

DET TE Sam LaPorta ($4,800) put up 13.9 points last week and ran 58% of his routes from the slot (16% inline). LaPorta’s highest single-game slot route percentage in 2024 was just 37%, and in the entire season owned 27% slot vs 52% inline splits. Last week’s usage was precarious given the new play caller, so it will be interesting to monitor.

Goff and the Lions feast off positive game scripts and let the run/play action set up the pass. Playing from behind in obvious pass situations isn’t their forte, and a lot of the right ingredients fall into place when the situational context leans in their favor:

As for DET defensively, they ranked 1st in the NFL in man coverage last season (46%). They have since lost DC Aaron Glenn, who was hired by the NYJ to become their new HC.

But that didn’t stop DET from deploying man in Week 1, as they led all defenses at 52% vs GB.

CHI faced just 12% man in their Week 1 dropbacks, so a hands on first year HC/play caller in Ben Johnson now set to face a different array of coverage looks should provide us with some valuable data points.

In the meantime, WR Rome Odunze ($4,800) is an interesting play given the context. With all the pass-catching options in CHI, he was on the field for >90% of the offensive snaps and led the team with a 23% target share. Odunze was also targeted on 3 of 5 routes vs man coverage.

Given the uncertainty, his upside is there, and the downside isn’t detrimental at his price.

NYG @ DAL

The New York Giants (0-1) travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys (0-1) at 1:00 PM EDT on Sunday. The Cowboys are currently 4.5-point favorites, and the game total is hovering around 44.5 points.

Both NFC East squads are coming off divisional losses from Week 1. The NYG lost 21-6 at WAS, while DAL lost to PHI by a final score of 24-20.

Dak Prescott ($6,000) is priced as the DK QB12, and Russell Wilson ($5,000) is priced outside the top 20 QBs.

NYG WR Malik Nabers ($7,100) is priced as the DK WR6 and is a really intriguing name to me this week.

Last week, Nabers led all WRs in expected fantasy points (28.5), and his usage was similar to DAL WR CeeDee Lamb ($7,800), who is priced as the DK WR2 this week:

EARLY Snap share on early downs

THIRD Snap share on third down

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points

PTS Actual fantasy points

DK SALARY DFS salary for upcoming game

His WR teammates Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,400) and Darius Slayton ($3,400) were both limited in Thursday’s practice:

Nabers was targeted 27 times in 2 games vs DAL last season:

Not a single NYG pass catcher caught a touchdown in both of those games combined.

Last week, DAL allowed 0 receiving touchdowns vs PHI. Regression time? It’s important to note that DAL had a strict gameplan where they deployed zero man coverage snaps, facilitating QB Jalen Hurts ($6,800) 27% scramble rate, and holding WR A.J. Brown ($6,600) just 1 target on 31 routes.

One would imagine that NYG HC Brian Daboll factored that into this week’s gameplan as it pertains to Malik Nabers.