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2025 Veteran Running Back Values

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2025 Veteran Running Back Values

Although we are technically in a dead period in the NFL offseason calendar, many of you might be in the heart of your fantasy drafts.

Running backs popped off during the 2024 season. Looking at pure scoring volume, here are the number of RBs that recorded 200+ Half PPR points in a season over the last decade (PFF):

2015: 5

2016: 9

2017: 7

2018: 12

2019: 10

2020: 6

2021: 10

2022: 12

2023: 11

2024: 17

Of those 17 different RBs in 2024, just 1 was a rookie.

That, along with a perceived loaded rookie RB class set to take the field in 2025, veteran ball carriers could be worth a closer look.

Overview

I generally want to approach this by examining usage and production from the last year and the two previous years, as well as identifying “spike” weeks. That way, we can then consider any potential new variables, such as new teams, coaching staffs, backfield competition, etc., relative to the current ADP to identify any potential values.

Let’s get right to it!

Tony Pollard | TEN

Current Underdog Best Ball ADP: 82.8 (RB28)

2024 PPG: RB22

2024 XFP: RB14

Tyjae Spears | TEN

Current Underdog Best Ball ADP: 126.4 (RB41)

2024 PPG: RB36

2024 XFP: RB39

I included both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears because of their respective tier breaks. Either is valuable relative to current ADP.

The Titans were bad all over the place in 2024. Among all regular season offenses, they ranked 31st in PFF run blocking grade (46.6) and 30th in average rushing yards before contact excluding QB scrambles, sneaks, and spikes (1.45).

Further, TEN ranked dead last in PFF pass grade (57.0), prompting the team to draft QB Cam Ward first overall in this year’s NFL Draft despite having needs all over the place.

That’s how valuable the QB position is, and why it matters even for our purposes. Riding the wave of rookie QB variance — if Cam Ward hits at the position, then the entire offense improves.

As for this year’s draft, the Titans selected Michigan RB Kalel Mullings in the 6th round. Other than Mullings, their RB positional room hasn’t been altered in any notable fashion.

Pollard could be the primary beneficiary of an improved 2025 offense based on his usage.

Pollard is set to play in his age-28 season and second as a Tennessee Titan. He appeared in 16 games during the regular season, missing week 17 due to injury and returning for the week 18 finale.

Leading up to that week 17 absense, Pollard’s snap share suggests that he was battling a lingering injury, which could have affected his production on top of already playing with poor surroundings:

Looking at Underdog Best Ball RBs 20-40 and their usage from the entirety of the 2024 fantasy season, Tony Pollard appears to be a nice value:

Over the last two seasons, Tony Pollard is one of 13 RBs averaging 15+ expected half PPG based on usage, and is arguably the most valuable among them relative to current ADP:

As for Tyjae Spears, I believe he has a better shot of improving his fantasy output independent of Cam Ward’s rookie year success.

Spears was drafted in the 3rd round out of Tulane in 2023. As a rookie, he appeared in all 17 regular season games, averaging 7.5 PPG while backing up future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry. Spears’ highest scoring outing came in week 18 with 20.1 points.

Last season, Tyjae Spears appeared in 12 total games, missing weeks 7-9, 12, and 18.

Once again, Spears was stuck behind a veteran in the newly acquired Tony Pollard as Derrick Henry departed for Baltimore in free agency.

Leading up to the fantasy playoffs, Spears was quite forgettable before exploding during his final three games:

  • Weeks 1-14 (9 G): 4.7 PPG

  • Weeks 15-17 (3 G): 18.7 PPG

Tony Pollard commanded most of the snaps and carries, but Spears cut it close in route participation and target share:

Pollard was the team’s clear RB1 on early downs:

But Spears won the third-down snap share:

Out of 60 qualifying RBs since 2023, Tony Pollard ranks 38th in rushing yards over expected per attempt (+0.02), while Tyjae Spears is T-53rd (-0.49), according to NGS.

The Titans currently have a 5.5 win total, with only the Browns and Saints projected to finish in worse shape (4.5 wins).

The bullish case for Tyjae Spears resides as a pass catcher in negative game scripts. He’s an interesting high-ceiling pick going in the later middle rounds of best ball.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE

Current Underdog Best Ball ADP: 120.0 (RB39)

2024 PPG: RB27

2024 XFP: RB18

Stevenson was drafted in the 4th round in 2021 out of Oklahoma. At the time, it was still Bill Belichick as judge, jury, and executioner in Foxborough with Josh McDaniels at OC.

Josh McDaniels left the Patriots to become HC of the Las Vegas Raiders following the 2021 season. He served as the Raiders HC from 2022 up until getting fired in October of 2023, finishing with a 9-16 overall record during that short-lived tenure.

McDaniels was away from football in 2024 but is now back as the Patriots OC under new HC Mike Vrabel.

Rhamondre Stevenson played for Josh McDaniels as a rookie, so there is already some familiarity there. However, the Patriots selected Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson in the 2nd round of this year’s draft, which is some heavy invested capital for a team with needs up and down their roster.

TreVeyon Henderson is currently going in the 6th round on Underdog (RB22).

In my honest opinion, Henderson’s ADP is incredibly rich and is the primary reason I'm writing about Stevenson.

In the post-Tom Brady era in New England (since 2020), Josh McDaniels called plays for Cam Newton and Mac Jones. Then McDaniels left for LV and coached both Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo, and now he’s back in New England calling plays for second-year QB Drake Maye.

McDaniels has coached a wide variety of QBs, but his unique personnel and formation deployment have remained a constant theme:

Looking at formation Gini coefficients of his offenses, which essentially measure the equality or inequality of distributions, they rank as follows:

  • 2020 (NE) - 29th

  • 2021 (NE) - 31st

  • 2022 (LV) - 27th

  • 2023 (LV) - 24th

Now, McDaniels has a big and mobile QB in Drake Maye, on top of a track record with diverse offensive packages.

This adds considerable uncertainty regarding expected usage. Are we sure that the lighter TreVeyon Henderson is going to see the field that much more often than the bigger Rhamondre Stevenson to justify such a significant disparity in current ADP?

Kenneth Walker III | SEA

Current Underdog Best Ball ADP: 54.5 (RB17)

2024 PPG: RB15

2024 XFP: RB8

Zach Charbonnet | SEA

Current Underdog Best Ball ADP: 114.6 (RB37)

2024 PPG: RB31

2024 XFP: RB34

Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III has grown on me the more I've looked into some of his numbers.

Walker was selected in the 2nd round of the 2022 NFL draft out of Michigan State and is heading into his 4th year.

This offseason, the Seahawks traded QB Geno Smith to the Raiders and then signed QB Sam Darnold in free agency. The Seahawks relieved OC Ryan Grubb of his duties after just 1 season and hired Klint Kubiak to fill the role after serving as the Saints OC in 2024.

It’s also important to note that the Seahawks moved on from WR DK Metcalf (traded to Steelers) as well as WR Tyler Lockett (released, signed with the Titans), but signed WR Cooper Kupp following his release from the Rams.

That means Kupp and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba are the new 1-2 punch in the passing game under a new QB and offensive play caller.

Fortunately for Walker, this new Kubiak system has the potential to explode his fantasy production beyond current ADP:

SEA drafted RB Zach Charbonnet in the 2nd round in 2023, which was perplexing to many at the time, given the Walker pick just a year prior.

Nonetheless, Walker has commanded most of the backfield work throughout their first two seasons together.

Looking at team share data since 2023 between Kenneth Walker and veteran RBs currently going ahead of him in best ball, his rush share and targets per route run stand out the most:

Out of 50 qualifying RBs since 2023, Kenneth Walker ranks 8th in targets per route run (0.23) while Charbonnet ranks 43rd (0.18). Walker’s impressive TPRR number helps combat the lower route participation.

I still included Charbonnet in here because his “spike weeks” are incredibly relevant for best ball.

Walker has missed >25% of the team’s games throughout each of the last two seasons (through week 17).

Charbonnet’s top five fantasy weeks have all come with Kenneth Walker sidelined. At the very least, Charbonnet has made the most of these opportunities when they’re presented:

In 24 games together…

Kenneth Walker

  • 13.4 PPG

  • 67% early-down snap share

  • 26% third down snap share

Zach Charbonnet

  • 4.9 PPG

  • 33% early-down snap share

  • 65% third-down snap share

In 7 games without Walker, Charbonnet has averaged 17.3 PPG. We can see that Charbonnet gets most of his opportunities on third down when both RBs are active, which has a direct impact on that previously mentioned route participation with Walker.

It will be interesting to see how Kubiak deploys them, given his run-heavy play-action system and how it differs from the dropback-heavy shotgun era under Geno Smith.

If Kenneth Walker can stay healthy and earn more of the late-down work in this new system, his fantasy potential is through the roof.

Originally coming from a baseball background — both as a player and where his analytics journey began — Nick uses a broad range of perspectives to form substantive opinions with matchups and higher-level trends. Prior to joining Fantasy Points, Nick began work as a college base data analyst for Pro Football Focus