2025 Redraft Fantasy Sleeper Candidates

In this article, I will share fantasy football candidates that I consider undervalued relative to current ADP in Sleeper PPR Redraft formats.

This will be similar to my recent article on negative regression candidates for the coming 2025 fantasy season.

Let’s get right to it!

David Njoku | CLE

Current Sleeper PPR Redraft ADP: 100.4 (TE10)

2024 PPR: TE4

2024 XFP: TE3

Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku appears to be undervalued relative to current ADP and recent output.

David Njoku was the TE3 in expected fantasy points per game during both the 2023 and 2024 fantasy seasons (defined as weeks 1-17).

In actual full PPR points per game, Njoku finished as the TE4 last season and finished as the TE6 in 2023.

Dating back to the start of the 2023 regular season, David Njoku is the NFL TE4 at 13.0 PPG, trailing only Brock Bowers, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce:

The Browns have quite the QB carousel set for the 2025 season. Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending leg injury in 2024, and there appears to be a QB1 battle between veteran Joe Flacco (arguably this generation’s Ryan Fitzpatrick) and former first-rounder turned journeyman Kenny Pickett.

CLE also drafted a few QBs in April, first with Dillon Gabriel out of Oregon, as well as Shedeur Sanders out of Colorado.

This uncertainty at QB isn’t anything foreign to the team’s pass catchers.

Over the last two seasons, five different QBs recorded at least 100 dropbacks in a Browns unfiorm:

• Deshaun Watson

• Joe Flacco

• Jameis Winston

• Dorian Thompson-Robinson

• P.J. Walker

CLE emphasized skill positions on Day 2 of this year’s NFL Draft by selecting HB Quinshon Judkins, TE Harold Fannin Jr., and HB Dylan Sampson.

In free agency, the Browns signed WR Diontae Johnson and saw the departures of WR Elijah Moore (Bills) and HB Nick Chubb (Texans).

Browns WR1 Jerry Jeudy ranked top 10 in the league with 142 targets last season. While Jeudy isn’t going anywhere in 2025, I do think that Elijah Moore’s vacated volume (98 targets) has gone a tad bit unnoticed.

WR Cedric Tillman is a name to watch. As Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) pointed out in his Advanced Stats article, Cedric Tillman led the Browns in first-read target share (25.7%) in 4 games as a full-time contributor after WR Amari Cooper was traded to the Bills.

Tillman is another player to watch as a potential focal point in the offense in 2025.

In my opinion, Diontae Johnson recording anything close to Moore’s 2024 volume out of the slot would be his best-case scenario, solely based on the way his career has transgressed over recent years.

Combine this with the fact that the Browns have ranked top 5 in 11 personnel usage in each of the last two seasons (1-TE sets), and there’s still certainly a bullish case for David Njoku’s receiving volume, assuming he stays healthy.

At current ADP, David Njoku is simply a highly palatable pick at a polarizing fantasy position.

Calvin Ridley | TEN

Current Sleeper PPR Redraft ADP: 77.9 (WR37)

2024 PPR: WR38

2024 XFP: WR28

Tennessee Titans veteran WR Calvin Ridley is set to turn 31 years old this December, but up to this point, he hasn’t shown any major signs of slowing down just yet.

After being suspended for the entire 2022 season, Calvin Ridley saw 100+ targets and recorded 1,000+ receiving yards both with the Jaguars in 2023 as well as last season with the Titans.

Second-year HC Brian Callahan just got his homegrown QB to work with after the Titans selected Cam Ward first overall in April’s NFL Draft.

Rookie QB variance alone makes Calvin Ridley worthy of consideration at current ADP. And that’s without having considered Ridley’s usage and raw numbers in a weak TEN receiving room.

The Titans during the 2024 regular season:

• Ranked dead last in PFF pass grade (57.0)

• Calvin Ridley WR38 finish (WR28 in expected PPG)

Commanders in 2023 (the season before drafting QB Jayden Daniels):

• Ranked 26th in PFF pass grade (59.6)

• Terry McLaurin WR38 finish (WR24 in expected PPG)

Texans in 2022 (the season before drafting QB C.J. Stroud)

• Ranked 29th in PFF pass grade (56.4)

• Nico Collins WR49 finish (WR41 in expected PPG)

Of course, Cam Ward could just as easily put up a rookie year closer in resemblance to Bryce Young or Caleb Williams than Daniels or Stroud. But as it pertains to Calvin Ridley, I'm not sure he could get any worse support from the QB position than what he dealt with last season in TEN.

Among all qualified WRs during the 2024 fantasy season, Calvin Ridley ranked top 3 in percentage share of his team’s air yards (45%), but ranked bottom 3 in catchable target percentage (68%):

For a WR more reliant on downfield production than other WR1s at this point in his career, poor accuracy is detrimental to fantasy scoring, especially if the targets aren’t hot on a per-route basis.

In my opinion, the green flag in all of this is Ridley’s dominance of the team’s air yards with the expectation that even a slight improvement in QB play should help his fantasy prowess in 2025.

In free agency, the Titans signed veteran WRs Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson and watched WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine depart for the Dolphins.

In the draft, the Titans selected WRs Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike, as well as TE Gunnar Helm, on Day 2. The team also signed Cam Ward’s college teammate WR Xavier Restrepo as an undrafted free agent, which is an interesting situation to monitor.

All in all, there aren’t any names we can directly point to and say they’re for sure going to chip away at Calvin Ridley’s target opportunities if he stays healthy. This, combined with even the slightest positive rookie QB variance, makes Calvin Ridley an undervalued WR in fantasy.

Rachaad White | TB

Current Sleeper PPR Redraft ADP: 123.3 (RB40)

2024 PPR: RB21

2024 XFP: RB29

Our next undervalued player relative to ADP is Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White, currently drafted as the RB40 in Sleeper PPR Redraft formats.

After finishing the 2023 season as the fantasy RB9, Rachaad White nearly eclipsed top 20-RB status in 2024 (RB21) had it not been for teammate Bucky Irving’s breakout rookie year (RB20).

Tampa Bay drafted Bucky Irving in the 4th round out of the University of Oregon in the 2024 NFL Draft. The now second-year RB has built up so much hype that he’s currently being drafted as the RB8 with a 19.7 ADP.

Bucky Irving had an impressive college analytical profile both as a rusher and as a pass catcher out of the backfield. I posted this tweet in November of 2023:

While all of that was going on, Rachaad White was inefficient running the ball through his first two NFL seasons..

From 2022-2023, White ranked 35th out of 40+ qualifying RBs in rushing yards over expected per attempt according to NGS (-0.31).

With virtually no backfield competition, the questions about Rachaad White were warranted, and the Bucky Irving hype continued to manifest until he finally exploded in fantasy.

Although all signs appear that Bucky Irving has taken over this backfield, I still think Rachaad White is undervalued relative to ADP.

I’m not a big fan of White as a real-life ball carrier, and I would definitely rank Irving higher had I made projections of my own. I simply think their gap is too wide of a margin.

If a RB’s fantasy situation sounds too good to be true, particularly with lesser-known commodities, it probably is.

As much as I do like Bucky Irving as a player and prospect, I can’t help but wonder if his top 10 draft capital is a bit rich:

Rachaad White and Bucky Irving had virtually identical expected fantasy point team shares during the actual fantasy season through Week 17:

Knowing this, we can make the following assumptions regarding their current discrepancy in ADP:

• Bucky Irving is presumably taking over this backfield in 2025 (wasn’t the case for most of 2024)

• Buccaneers' offense will be conducive to fantasy success again in 2025 (lost play caller)

Bucky Irving first truly took over this backfield between the time following the Buccaneers’ Week 11 bye and the start of the fantasy playoffs.

Again, as you can see, their XFP shares were about identical up to that time of the year:

However, leading up to the start of the fantasy playoffs, the offensive snap share was more of a gradual transition from Rachaad White to Bucky Irving.

And the team rush share abruptly diverged in Bucky Irving’s direction around the start of the fantasy playoffs:

Given his current ADP, you would have thought that Bucky Irving took over this TB backfield far earlier in the year than when he actually did.

Again, I'm not a Rachaad White truther. Bucky Irving is a better RB who gets the majority of the work most of the time if we were to simulate out the range of outcomes for the coming 2025 season.

But getting Rachaad White as the RB40 after he split the work for most of last year is hard to pass up on.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX

Current Sleeper PPR Redraft ADP: 95.5 (RB34)

2024 PPR: RB39

2024 XFP: RB32

The Jacksonville Jaguars selected RB Travis Etienne Jr. in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Etienne wasn’t their only first-round pick that year, as JAX drafted Etienne’s Clemson teammate Trevor Lawrence first overall.

The vision was to pair the two together and maximize production as much as possible throughout their rookie deals.

Up to this point, however, the juice hasn’t precisely been worth the squeeze.

Travis Etienne suffered a season-ending injury during the 2021 preseason, which pushed back his first playing year to 2022.

• 2022: RB23 finish (RB17 in expected points per game)

• 2023: RB6 (RB11)

• 2024: RB39 (RB32)

Although Etienne was very impressive in 2023, finishing as the RB6 in full PPR formats, he still ranked outside of the top 20 RBs in each of his other two seasons and still has yet to post a top 10 year in expected PPG.

And that’s how you get his current 95.5 ADP as the 2025 RB34.

I’m still surprised that Travis Etienne isn’t being drafted as a top 30 RB.

In 2023, JAX drafted Auburn RB Tank Bigsby in the third round. As a rookie, Bigsby ranked 82 out of 89 qualifying RBs in PPG.

However, in 2024, Bigsby finished as the RB40, just behind Etienne (RB39). Bigsby is currently going as the RB41 in 2025 fantasy drafts.

Following the end of this past season, the Jaguars fired HC Doug Pederson and GM Trent Baalke, replacing Baalke with James Gladstone as GM (Rams) and Pederson with Liam Coen as HC (formerly Buccaneers OC).

In this year’s NFL Draft, the Jaguars selected RB and analytical darling Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round out of Virginia Tech. Tuten is currently going as the RB45.

Based on current ADP and public perception, this backfield is considered “deep” and “clogged” alongside a new HC who just revitalized another team’s offense in all facets.

In my previous article, I shared a few ways that new Jaguars HC Liam Coen directly impacted QB Baker Mayfield in the quick dropback game.

Coen elevated the Tampa Bay run game as well, which was the most impressive feat based on the numbers.

Here are the Buccaneers’ regular season offensive ranks with Dave Canales as OC in 2023 → 2024:

• EPA/Dropback: 8th → 5th

• Dropback Success Rate: 16th → 3rd

• EPA/Rush: 27th → 6th

• Rush Success Rate: 32nd → 6th

Everything improved under Liam Coen in 2024, but what stands out the most is the improvement in rushing efficiency and stability.

If Coen elevates all facets of the Jaguars’ offense, I think the RBs should be big beneficiaries.

So, assuming the Jaguars improve in 2025, it’s hard not to buy into Travis Etienne’s talent at current ADP, which I think is too close to Bigsby/Tuten where it stands.

Last season, Etienne suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6 that directly impacted his elusiveness:

JAX finished the regular season as the 26th-ranked PFF run blocking unit (57.2) and finished 25th in ESPN’s run block win rate metric (70%).

In our “Adjusted Rushing Yards Before Contact” metric, which excludes scrambles, trick plays, sneaks, and kneels, the Jaguars ranked 31st at 1.37 adjusted rushing yards before contact per attempt.

For reference, the Ravens ranked 1st (3.31), the Eagles ranked 2nd (3.08), and Coen’s Buccaneers finished in 7th (2.27).

With the addition of Coen you’d expect this area to improve in 2025, which would give their lead back in Etienne some breathing room off the line of scrimmage.

To play devil's advocate against Etienne, Tank Bigsby was a solid rusher last season.

Per NGS, Bigsby ranked 9th out of more than 40 qualifying RBs in rushing yards over expected per attempt in the regular season (+0.74), while Etienne finished in the bottom 10 (-0.28).

In 2023, Etienne had 58% of the team’s carries inside the 5 while Bigsby had 16%. Last season, Etienne fell to 26% while Bigsby climbed up to 50%.

Tank Bigsby gaining a higher share of the team carries, notably in valuable short-yardage situations, could spell trouble for Etienne’s ceiling if this carries over to the new regime.

Where I am bullish on Etienne compared to Bigsby is in the passing game, something more consequential to volume throughout a full season in full PPR formats.

There are 64 RBs with 100+ combined rush attempts over the last two fantasy seasons.

Of those 64, Tank Bigsby ranked dead last in route participation (11.4%), dead last in target share (1.5%), 2nd to last in yards per route run (0.44), and 4th worst in targets per route run (10.7%).

Assuming they’re both healthy, Tank Bigsby would need to have unprecedented receiving production (relative to his baseline) and own the majority of the backfield work in 2025 to knock Travis Etienne out of fantasy relevance.

I don’t think this is probable, making Travis Etienne valuable at his current ADP.