When it comes to preseason analysis in the fantasy space, my objective is pretty simple: I want to beat the markets. By the time August rolls around, most players will have an average draft position that is fairly easy to predict, so I try to isolate assets who I believe will exceed the market’s expectations and outperform their ADPs, and those who will fall short.
I have a list of overvalued players on my mind every year, but my true passion is on the positive side of things, and I’ve made a career out of identifying breakout players since my first official call in 1995, which was that Isaac Bruce was the next Jerry Rice. Bruce, the year before, he had just 23 receptions for 272 yards as a rookie, but he exploded for 119/1781 in ‘95, and I’ve been chasing breakouts ever since. Bruce was a very young and ascending player, and the fantasy marketplace had not yet recognized him as a legit asset, so he was an incredible value for the few fantasy managers savvy enough to draft him, and that’s the type of player I’m looking for first and foremost.
The days of plucking future Hall of Famers in the 18th round are mostly over, but there’s still usually value to be had when backing young and unproven players who have breakout potential, so you’ll find a lot of young players on my list of 10 players who I think will out-perform their ADPs and present a strong ROI in fantasy drafts as and in season-long props. For good measure, I’ll include five skill players who I see failing to meet expectations, just in case you’re into turning buzzkills into profits.
All betting lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Overachievers
J.J. McCarthy (QB, Min)
ADP: QB19
Prop Play: Over 3650.5 passing yards (-120)
15 different quarterbacks hit this number last year, including Sam Darnold, who crushed it with 4319 yards in 17 games for the Vikings. McCarthy has studied this offense for over a year, and he has a chance to be better than the 2024 Darnold due to his superior play with his legs and outside of structure. The same coaching, scheme, and personnel that elevated Darnold last year is still in place, and once stud LT Christian Darrisaw is back, Minnesota should have a top-10 OL and an elite left side in front of him with #1 pick G/T Donovan Jackson added. Unlike last year, TJ Hockenson is healthy coming into the season, so with a deadly 1-2 punch at receiver and more, the Vikes are stacked. McCarthy is far and away the most optimized QB pick on the board in fantasy this year, given his combination of value and upside. If JJ’s available for 14+ games, he’ll be the quarterback value pick of the year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Sea)
ADP: WR14
Prop play: Over 950.5 receiving yards (-110)
