2025 Fantasy Regression Candidates

What’s going on, everyone? I hope you’re enjoying the offseason and the start of summer!

The last time you heard from me was earlier this spring during my NFL Draft prospect article series. In this article, I'll cover some fantasy regression candidates for the upcoming 2025 NFL season based on production and usage, all relative to current ADP in PPR Redraft formats.

Let’s get right to it!

Terry McLaurin | WAS

Current Sleeper Redraft ADP: 31.3 (WR16)

2024 PPR: WR13

2024 XFP: WR29

Terry McLaurin has been an incredible return on investment for the Washington Commanders’ organization. A 2019 3rd round pick with roughly 1,250 receiving yards across 4 years at Ohio State has gone on to produce >1,000 yards in 5 of his first 6 NFL seasons.

Much of the Commanders’ Cinderella playoff run all the way to the NFC Championship came off the backs of Rookie QB sensation Jayden Daniels. After experiencing unstable QB play up to this point in his career, McLaurin finally appears to have some stability at QB.

He subsequently delivered on that in fantasy last season by posting a career-high 15.5 PPG, finishing as the WR13 in PPR formats.

McLaurin is now reportedly seeking a new contract as he heads into his age-30 season in 2025.

So, what can we expect from him this fall? But more importantly, why is he a regression candidate?

Well, relative to current ADP at 31.3 (WR16), I question the production you’d reliably expect that early, as unpopular as I might sound.

Our Fantasy Points Data Suite goes back to the 2021 NFL season. Terry McLaurin scored 20+ points on 7 total occasions from 2021-2023.

He accomplished this 6 times in 2024 alone.

Pretty much the entirety of last season’s fantasy production fell outside his normal range of outcomes on the larger sample of work:

McLaurin has never been a true volume receiver. He’s predominantly lined up on the outside and wins on explosives and/or in contested situations.

This makes his fantasy value more predicated on higher value targets relative to other WR1s, particularly with touchdowns and air yards.

McLaurin caught 14 total touchdowns from 2021-2023. He caught 13 in 2024 alone.

Last season, 9 of his 13 touchdowns came inside the red zone, tied for the 2nd-most RZ touchdowns in the league.

8 of those 9 came directly from end zone targets.

WAS ranked 2nd in red zone trips (68) and 6th in percentage of red zone trips resulting in a touchdown (62%). This is elite volume and efficiency that could be difficult to maintain.

McLaurin also plays with a QB who I expect to regress in the sack department. Jayden Daniels scrambled and took sacks under pressure at a high rate throughout college, which are some of the stickiest tendencies between levels and across longer time horizons.

There’s a difference between stat sheet scrambles, meaning QB runs past the line of scrimmage, and “charted” scrambles, where a QB leaves the pocket but still looks to throw, with the play ending in a throw, run, or sack.

Terry McLaurin had a far greater target share on straight dropbacks (STR), where the QB stayed in the pocket, than he did on “charted scrambles,” where Jayden Daniels left the pocket but still looked to throw (SCR):

During the fantasy season, Jayden Daniels ranked 4th out of 33 qualifiers in pressure rate over expectation on straight dropbacks, meaning he was pressured less often than expected based on how long he held onto the football.

I expect Daniels to be pressured more on straight dropbacks in 2025 on top of his already high percentage of scramble runs, leading to more sacks and potentially fewer opportunities for Terry McLaurin.

McLaurin remains the top weapon in this offense and could very well put up a similar fantasy performance in 2025 as he did last season. Newly acquired WR Deebo Samuel and veteran TE Zach Ertz aren’t running on the same legs as earlier in their careers and don’t pose as downfield threats to McLaurin.

With all of that being said, I'm still more on the skeptical side for season-long production at current ADP.

Ladd McConkey | LAC

Current Sleeper Redraft ADP: 21.0 (WR11)

2024 PPR: WR19

2024 XFP: WR35

There’s no question that Los Angeles Chargers WR Ladd McConkey had a historical rookie season in 2024:

I just think his current ADP at 21.0 is a bit heavy right now.

In this year’s NFL Draft, Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman were both presumably on board with the 1st Round RB selection of Omarion Hampton, and they also invested a 2nd Round pick in WR Tre Harris.

The Chargers lost WR Josh Palmer in free agency to the Bills, but LAC signed a familiar face in WR Mike Williams and also added TE Tyler Conklin and RB Najee Harris.

Ladd McConkey is still the number one option in this Chargers offense, but you could argue that his surroundings have been elevated at every skill position.

McConkey’s expected fantasy points (XFP) relative to internal competition and current ADP begs one with a contrarian approach to consider exactly how much meat is actually left on the bone here.

During the fantasy season, Ladd McConkey ran 72% of his routes from the slot.

On all targets 10+ yards downfield, McConkey owned the 2nd-highest catchable target percentage out of 39 qualifiers (77%) while going 5 for 5 on contested opportunities.

Playing alongside gunslinger Justin Herbert is a bullish component of McConkey’s overall fantasy value, But while McConkey’s combination of heavy slot usage and uber-efficient downfield production is valuable in fantasy, it’s not common to sustain over time.

During the fantasy season, the Chargers had the 3rd-fewest percentage of their total dropbacks coming from 2-WR sets (7%), but ranked 6th from 1-WR sets (15%).

Ladd McConkey took advantage of a more “true” slot alignment in 3+ WR sets and from reps as the only WR on the field.

McConkey was targeted on 37% of his routes from 1-WR sets, averaging 4.46 YPRR and .89 FPRR.

On all other plays, Ladd McConkey was at a 23% target rate, 2.32 YPRR, and .50 FPRR.

These are good splits for McConkey either way, but it’s hard to project as many “sacrificial-X” opportunities in 3+ WR sets, nor that few of 2-WR sets in 2025 given the upgraded pass catchers around him (just 26 routes from 2-WR sets during the regular season).

McConkey had a fantastic rookie year and I think his dynasty value is right where it belongs. He could also put up top 15 WR production in 2025 and prove me wrong.

But the Chargers found themselves in competitive game scripts in 2024, and McConkey didn’t have much target competition and still finished as the WR35 in expected points per game (12.3):

I simply think WR11 is a bit rich for 2025. He’s a popular pick in drafts, but at current ADP, I think you’re banking on ceiling outcomes when there’s still baked-in uncertainty ahead of year two.

Baker Mayfield | TB

Current Sleeper Redraft ADP: 68.4 (QB7)

2024 PPG: QB4

2024 PTS/DB: QB7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield had a career year in 2024.

He completed the highest percentage of his passes (71.4%), threw for the most yards (4,500), touchdowns (41), averaged his best EPA per dropback (.21), and posted the highest PFF grade (86.0) of any regular season to date.

This wasn’t any different in fantasy, as Mayfield posted career highs in fantasy points per dropback (.59) and fantasy points per game (22.6).

Mayfield's shotgun dropback rate increased from 73% during his last season with the Browns in 2021 to 82% with the Buccaneers in 2024.

Tampa Bay has continued to let him drop back behind an offensive line that ranked 2nd in PFF pass block grade during the regular season (82.5) and ranked 10th in 2023 (70.7).

But Baker Mayfield has played with some decent pass protection throughout his career. Throwing to WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, along with playing under two consecutive OCs qualified enough to be hired as HCs elsewhere in back-to-back years, collectively aided his return to relevance ever since signing with Tampa Bay, in my opinion.

Although Mayfield has played well, I think some analytical regression points could impact his fantasy efficiency in 2025.

Last season, under former OC Liam Coen (now Jacksonville Jaguars HC), Baker Mayfield was incredibly productive on quick throws.

Looking at plays with under 2.5 seconds in the pocket, Baker led all QBs with 28 passing touchdowns while the next highest QB had 21, and ranked 3rd in PFF pass grade (90.0), passing yards (2,163), and passing first downs (118) on these attempts.

Mayfield’s yardage-efficiency and usage on quick throws didn’t see a jump in 2024 compared to past years. Still, he posted career-bests in touchdown and interception efficiency, which collectively made a significant impact on his fantasy numbers:

I am inclined to think that this quick play production is stable if his yardage efficiency and usage saw jumps in 2024 compared to past years.

However, it was the smaller sample and high variance in fantasy (TD/INT) that led to the big jumps in 2024. And now Coen is gone from Tampa Bay, which makes me question this repeatability entirely.

Looking at throws with >2.5 seconds in the pocket, there weren’t notable jumps in 2024. In fact, his 5.5% “big time throw rate” stands as his 2nd-lowest mark in a season, while his 5.2% “turnover-worthy play rate” is tied for the 2nd-worst in a season.

I find importance in these particular numbers because TB had a good offensive line; these longer time throws allow more time for plays to develop and for QBs to get through their reads.

One would expect a productive fantasy QB with good surroundings to make big throws on these longer, drawn-out plays, but Baker Mayfield didn’t do this, yet he was still productive in fantasy overall.

Considering Mayfield lacks a stable rushing floor and is prone to sacks, which are more consistent components year over year than particular splits in passing efficiency, I have some serious questions about him having a top 8 QB season for fantasy purposes.