I’ve been breaking down 2025 NFL futures prop bets since the final whistle blew in the 2024 season, when I cashed a Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl ticket at +2200 odds! I’ve searched for those positive expected value wagers at every turn and found a few gems. I went through my 30+ betting articles from the off-season to find One Prop to Bet for Every NFL Team for the upcoming season.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride’s rotten touchdown luck masked what was otherwise a special season for the third-year TE — he finally found paydirt on his 98th reception of the season in Week 17. He finished behind just Brock Bowers in receiving yards (1146) and receptions (111) among TEs, ending the season with 65+ receiving yards in seven of his final eight games. He’s averaging 6.8 receptions, 8.9 targets, and 69.3 receiving yards per game since becoming Arizona’s starting TE in Week 8. McBride ranked fourth in A.S.S. (.070) among 40 tight ends who ran 200+ routes last season.
Best Current Line: Trey McBride (Ari) over 875.5 receiving yards (-115, ESPNBet)
Atlanta Falcons
Best Bet: Michael Penix (Atl) most regular season passing yards (+7500, Bet365). Risk .1 units to win 7.5 units. Placed June 12.
Penix ranked eighth in passing yards (737) in the final three weeks, averaging 245.7 passing YPG in his first three career starts. The Falcons ranked 28th in pass rate over expectation (-4.2%) last season, with a limited Cousins mostly at quarterback. They ranked sixth in plays per game (63.9) and eighth in seconds between snaps (26.9), which suggests more potential for passing volume if they move closer to the middle of the league in pass rate over expectation, or even higher. Penix will benefit from playing against weak NFC South secondaries six times, and the Falcons have the fourth-easiest schedule overall based on win totals. Penix could need a season to emerge as one of the league’s top passers, but we’re getting ridiculously long odds to see if he can become the next young quarterback to elevate his game quickly.
Best Current Line: +2500, DraftKings
Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry is the deserving favorite to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns, even as he enters his 10th season at 31 years old. He finished tied for the league lead with Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook with 16 rushing TDs last season, which marked the third time in the last six years that he led the rushing TDs. Henry has reached double-digit rushing TDs in seven straight seasons, which is the second-longest streak with 10+ rushing TDs behind only LaDainian Tomlinson at nine. The King logged career-bests in YPA (5.9) and success rate (58.8%), thanks to ranking third in YBCO/ATT (3.28), third in explosive run rate (6.8%), and eighth in MTF/ATT (.21) among 46 RBs with 100+ carries. Henry finished third in carries from inside the 5-yard line (18), and he led the league in inside the 5-yard line carry share at 90.9%. Baltimore is projected to be one of the best teams in the league once again, with a win total of 11.5. He’s averaging 1.05 rushing TDs per game in 78 career victories compared to .41 TDs/game in 58 losses.
Best Current Line: Derrick Henry (Bal) most rushing TDs (+600, ESPNBet)
Buffalo Bills
Best Bet: Josh Allen (Buf) under 3775.5 regular season passing yards (-114, FanDuel). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 21.
Allen is coming off five-year lows in passing attempts (483) and passing yards (3731) in his first season without Stefon Diggs. Buffalo’s offense has moved to a more run-heavy approach under OC Joe Brady in the last season and a half. The Bills sat at 9.5% pass rate over expectation in 2022 and 7.1% in the first 10 games of 2023 before Ken Dorsey was fired. Under Brady, the Bills dipped to -2% for the remainder of 2023 before sitting at just 1.9% last season. The Bills have the NFL’s highest win total at 11.5, which is juiced to the over, and the shortest odds to win a division at -250. They could be playing from ahead in quite a few games, which could limit Allen’s passing volume.
Best Current Line: Under 3775.5 (-114, FanDuel)
Carolina Panthers
Best Bet: Bryce Young (Car) over 16.5 regular season passing TDs (-110, ESPNBet). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 23
Young and the Panthers got off to a rough start in Dave Canales’ first season as head coach, but the offense trended up in the back half of 2024. He threw for TDs in 10 straight games once he was inserted back into the starting lineup in Week 8, tossing 15 total TDs with a 4.7% TD rate during that span. He previously threw for TDs in 8 of his first 18 NFL starts, tossing just 11 TDs with a 1.9% TD rate to begin his career. Young has a chance to maintain or improve his 4.7% TD rate from the end of last season after the Panthers selected Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall. He scored 18 TDs in his final 25 games at Arizona, and he could become Canales’ new Mike Evans near the end zone at 6’4”, 219 pounds.
Best Current Line: Over 16.5 (-160, ESPNBet)
Chicago Bears
Best Bet: D.J. Moore (Chi) under 1050.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 30.
I successfully bet Moore to go over 925.5 receiving yards last season, but anyone who tailed the bet knows it wasn’t a pleasant sweat with Chicago’s offense stumbling to the finish line. He barely cleared his total in the final game of the season, despite closing with 140 targets and 98 receptions. He averaged career lows in YPR (9.9) and YPT (6.9) in his first season with Caleb Williams at quarterback, and he sat at 1.53 YPRR despite owning a 24.4% target share. Moore ranked 85th in A.S.S. (.051) among 180 receivers who ran 200+ routes last season. He easily led the league with 41 designed targets, 15 more than the next closest player, Khalil Shakir. That’s unlikely to continue with Ben Johnson taking over the offense, especially after the Bears drafted Colston Loveland and Luther Burden.
Best Current Line: Under 1000.5 (-115, Bet365/ESPNBet)
Cincinnati Bengals
Best Bet: Chase Brown (Cin) over 5.5 rushing touchdowns (+100, ESPNBet). Risk 1 unit to win 1 unit. Placed June 4.
Brown completely took over Cincinnati’s backfield after Zack Moss suffered a season-ending neck injury, and he ranked as the RB4 (20.8 FPG) from Week 9 through the end of the season. Brown scored 7 rushing TDs in his second season, ranking ninth in inside the 10-yard carries (28). He also finished 13th in inside the 5-yard carries (12), converting 5 of those opportunities into touchdowns. The Bengals released Moss at the start of training camp, and they added just Samaje Perine and sixth-round pick Tahj Brooks to this backfield. The Bengals finished fifth in offensive touchdowns with 59, but only 11 of their scores (18.6%) came on the ground. Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s passing attack will continue to carry most of the weight for one of the league’s high-scoring offenses, but the split between passing and rushing TDs will balance out more this season.
Best Current Line: Over 5.5 (-160, ESPNBet)
Cleveland Browns
Best Bet: Quinshon Judkins (Cle) over 625.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 6.
This wager looked cooked after Judkins was charged with misdemeanor battery in mid-July, but prosecutors in the case have declined to move forward with the case, which paves the way for Judkins to play this season. Judkins fell behind and lost reps to Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson in the battle to be the team’s lead back. He could be eased into action at the start of the season since he missed so much time, but his draft capital suggests he should have a sizable role right out of the gates. GM Andrew Berry used the phrase “bell cow” twice when describing Judkins during his introductory press conference.
Best Current Line: Not currently available
Dallas Cowboys
Best Bet: CeeDee Lamb (Dal) most regular season receiving touchdowns (+2000, ESPNBet). Risk .4 units to win 8 units. Placed July 14
Lamb had the shortest odds to lead the league in receiving TDs before last season at +850. He finished with a disappointing 6 TDs in 15 games last season, but Cooper Rush led the team in pass attempts after Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury. He previously finished one score behind league leaders Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans in 2023, who each found paydirt 13 times. Lamb ranked 13th in end-zone targets (12) last season, and he finished second with 21 end-zone looks in 2023 when the Cowboys ranked fourth in PROE (7.9%) from inside the 5-yard line. The Cowboys added George Pickens to play alongside Lamb, who should take some pressure off of Lamb and free him up for more 1-on-1 opportunities after he lined up next to Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert last season. This is a chance to buy low on Lamb’s odds after last year’s subpar performance, primarily without Prescott.
Best Current Line: +2000, FanDuel
Denver Broncos
Best Bet: R.J. Harvey (Den) AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year 2025-26 (+5000, FanDuel). Risk .1 units to win 5 units. Placed April 26.
Alvin Kamara was the last player to win the OROY from outside the first round, who posted 1500+ scrimmage yards and 13 TDs after Sean Payton selected him 67th overall. Can history repeat itself after Payton selected Harvey 60th overall? All eyes were on who the Broncos would select at running back because it was one of the best landing spots for a fantasy back. The Broncos have the seventh-most vacated carries (138) and 70 RB targets available with Javonte Williams leaving for Dallas. Harvey has massive potential if Payton trusts him in the passing game, as Broncos RBs finished fourth in targets in 2024 with 117 and first in 2023 with 153. Harvey is the favorite to lead the Broncos in carries, and he can be an every-down back if Payton wants to put that much work on his smaller, rookie RB.
Best Current Line: +3000, DraftKings
Detroit Lions
Best Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) most regular season rushing TDs (+1400, FanDuel). Risk .5 units to win 7 units. Placed Aug. 5.
It became abundantly clear that Gibbs is the far superior talent when David Montgomery missed the final three regular-season games. Gibbs erupted for 64/365/5 rushing (5.7 YPA) and finished as the RB1 with 32.6 FPG in Weeks 16-18. New playcaller John Morton will feel pressure to give more work to Gibbs, and the 2023 12th overall pick has routinely been the first back on the field in training camp. Gibbs’ 46.8% carry share paled in comparison to the NFL’s other top backs, ranking 25th overall, but that should change. He can score from anywhere on the field after ranking first in explosive run rate (10.0%) and fifth in MTF/ATT (.23). The Lions ranked second in carries from inside the 5-yard line (38) and third in carries from inside the 10-yard line (65). Gibbs has scored 26 rushing TDs on just 432 carries (6.0%) to start his career, including an NFL-best 16 scores last season.
Best Current Line: +1100, FanDuel
Green Bay Packers
Best Bet: Josh Jacobs (GB) most regular season rushing TDs (+2500, ESPNBet). Risk .3 units to win 7.5 units. Placed Aug. 5.
Jacobs scored just 1 rushing TD through the first seven games before scoring 14 rushing TDs in his final 10 regular-season games. Jacobs scored rushing TDs in 10 of the final 11 games (postseason included) as the Packers leaned into their free-agent acquisition in the second half of his first season in Green Bay. Jacobs has scored 12+ rushing TDs in three of his last five seasons, and he’s scored the third-most TDs (54) in that span behind only Derrick Henry (68) and Jalen Hurts (55). Jacobs tied Kyren Williams for the most inside the 5-yard line curries with 19, and he led the league with 12 rushing TDs from that range. Marshawn Lloyd is his top competition for carries, and he’s once again missing significant time, which paves the way for heavy work for Jacobs.
Best Current Line: +1800, Caesars
Houston Texans
Best Bet: Houston Texans AFC South winner 2025-25 (+140, FanDuel). Risk 1 unit to win 1.4 units. Placed March 19.
I wagered on the Texans to win their third straight AFC South title in mid-march. I’m concerned about Houston having one of the NFL’s worst O-lines, but it has the potential to be among the league’s better defenses in DeMeco Ryan’s third season. Will Anderson headlines the group, and Danielle Hunter forms an elite pass-rushing tandem. Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are one of the NFL’s most promising CB duos, and the secondary added Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to make the group even more formidable.
Best Current Line: +115, FanDuel
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts landed the tight end they coveted before the draft when Tyler Warren fell into their laps at 14th overall. Our Brett Whitefield believed Warren is a dynamic two-way TE prospect who falls between Rob Gronkowski and George Kittle on the spectrum of playstyle. Warren will try to become the first Colts TE to reach 500+ receiving yards since Eric Ebron did it with Andrew Luck at quarterback in 2018. Colts TEs have had a miserable run of production, but Warren should have little competition for targets at the position. His biggest competition for targets will come from Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, who combined for a 46.5% target share last season. The Colts finished last in pass rate over expectation (-6.4%), but they should be a little more pass-heavy after giving Daniel Jones the nod at quarterback. Anthony Richardson ranked last in completion percentage (47.7%), CPOE (-6.1%), and off-target throw rate (26.5%) in his second season.
Best Current Line: Tyler Warren (Ind) over 525.5 receiving yards (-120, BetMGM)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars fewest regular season wins (+2800, DraftKings). Risk .25 units to win 7 units. Under “Wins” then “Fewest Wins.” Placed Aug. 12.
The Jaguars have already finished with the worst record with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, finishing a league-worst 3-14 during his rookie campaign. Last season, the Jaguars finished 25th or worse in PPG and YPG on both sides of the ball on their way to finishing with a 4-13 record. Lawrence is coming off season-ending shoulder surgery, and he’ll be under his third coaching staff in five seasons. I’m a big believer in Liam Coen as an offensive play-caller, but he’s getting his first chance to be a head coach at 39 years old. He also hired a pair of first-time coordinators in OC Grant Udinski (29 years old) and DC Anthony Campanile (42) to be his top lieutenants. They’re favored in 6-of-17 games (35.2%) but just twice in their first 11 games. Jacksonville needs to hit the ground running, or else it could be another long season in Duval County. Jacksonville has a wider range of outcomes than most teams. I could see Lawrence finally living up to his potential and Coen establishing himself as an offensive mastermind, or this franchise could remain one of the league’s bigger laughingstocks of the NFL.
Best Current Line: +2800, DraftKings
Kansas City Chiefs
Sportsbooks lined Mahomes with the second-highest passing yards total (4050.5), but we have him projected for the ninth-most passing yards (3747). The Chiefs have finished in the top two in pass rate over expectation in each of the last four seasons, so I understand why his total is sitting behind only Joe Burrow entering the season. Mahomes is coming off career lows in YPA (6.8) and passing yards (3928), with his aDOT sitting at 6.7 yards or shorter for the third straight season. It was no coincidence that Mahomes posted his worst numbers with Travis Kelce taking his first noticeable step back in his age-35 season. Rashee Rice is also facing a potentially lengthy suspension, which could be handed down at any point this season.
Best Current Line: Patrick Mahomes (KC) under 4050.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings)
Las Vegas Raiders
Best Bet: Ashton Jeanty (LV) most regular season rushing yards (+2000, ESPNBet). Risk .4 units to win 8 units. Placed June 23.
The Raiders spent top-6 draft capital to select Jeanty to be their new bell-cow back after he led the FBS in rushing attempts (374) and rushing yards (2601) last season. Jeanty is the clear lead runner in Las Vegas, and his only competition for touches comes from a 33-year-old Raheem Mostert, Sincere McCormick, and Zamir White. Jeanty’s workload should rank among the league’s best for the position. We’re projecting him for the third-highest carry share (72%), the fourth-most carries (276.8), and the third-most rushing yards (1315.7). Chip Kelly’s offenses in Philadelphia (2013-15) and San Francisco (2016) each ranked in the top 14 in rushing yards, including a first-place finish in 2013 and a fourth-place finish in 2016. My biggest concern is that the Raiders will face more negative game scripts than most teams, with a projected win total of 6.5. It can be done as Josh Jacobs showed in 2022 when he led the league with 1653 yards on a six-win Raiders team.
Best Current Line: +1800, ESPNBet
Los Angeles Chargers
Best Bet: Ladd McConkey (LAC) over 950.5 receiving yards (-115, ESPNBet). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 30.
McConkey is coming off an outstanding rookie season, asserting himself as the alpha receiver for Justin Herbert by midseason. He ended his campaign with 52+ receiving yards in 11 straight games, including 94+ yards six times in that span. McConkey ranked 12th in A.S.S. (.150) among 180 receivers who ran 200+ routes last season. He finished ninth in YPRR (2.57) on his way to finishing with 1149 yards in 16 games. McConkey ranked 27th in target share (22.9%), which should improve in his second season, even after the team signed Keenan Allen.
Best Current Line: Over 950.5 (-130, ESPNBet)
Los Angeles Rams
Best Bet: Puka Nacua (LAR) over 5.5 receiving TDs (+100, BetMGM). Risk 1 unit to win 1 unit.
He’s coming off a disappointing 3 TDs in 11 games last season, which gives him only 9 TDs to open his career despite owning 266 targets and 2476 receiving yards. Nacua is averaging 275.1 receiving yards for every receiving TD scored, which is well below the league average of 151.9 receiving yards per receiving TD over the last two seasons. He’s a good bet to have better TD luck in the future after ranking first in TPRR (.38) and YPRR (3.59) last season. For perspective, Tyreek Hill scored 13 TDs when he led the league in TPRR and YPRR in 2023. Los Angeles signed Davante Adams to replace Cooper Kupp, which could lead to a more pass-heavy attack. The Rams ranked 23rd in pass rate over expectation (-1.1%) overall and 26th in PROE inside the 5-yard line (-9.8%). Nacua will be among the league leaders in target share in one of the league’s higher-scoring offenses, which makes him a good bet to surpass his TD total.
Best Current Line: Over 5.5 (-125, ESPNBetl)
Miami Dolphins
Best Bet: Tyreek Hill (Mia) most regular season receiving yards (+2200, Bet365). Risk .4 units to win 8.8 units. Placed June 17.
Hill already has one receiving yards crown to his name from 2023, and he cleared 1700+ yards in each of his first two seasons in Miami. He averaged 106.3 receiving YPG in 2022-23 before a training camp wrist injury derailed his 2024 campaign right out of the gates. He averaged just 56.4 receiving YPG and failed to reach 1000+ yards for the first time since 2019. Hill ranks behind only Justin Jefferson in 100-yard receiving games since 2022 with 20, and Miami’s defense could have the Dolphins playing in more shootouts, especially after they trade Jalen Ramsey.
Best Current Line: +2000, BetMGM
Minnesota Vikings
Best Bet: Aaron Jones (Min) under 900.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed June 4.
Jones remained one of the league’s more explosive backs despite a change of scenery in his first season in his 30s. He exploded for 1138 rushing yards in purple and gold, but his workload could be reduced after racking up a career-high 306 touches at 30 years old. He owned a 63.7% snap share and a 55.8% carry share, with the Vikings lacking a viable second option behind him. Minnesota traded for Jordan Mason from the 49ers and handed him a two-year deal with $7 million guaranteed, which indicates he’ll have a bigger role than Cam Akers had as Jones’ backup. Mason wasn’t given many opportunities as a receiver in San Francisco, but he could split early-down carries with Jones. The Vikings want to preserve Jones for the entire season a little better than they did in his first season with the franchise.
Best Current Line: Under 725.5 (-114, FanDuel)
New England Patriots
Drake Maye had one of the league’s worst receiving corps and offensive lines, but he stayed relevant for fantasy as a rookie thanks to his higher-than-expected upside as a rusher. He ran for 421 yards on 54 attempts (7.8 YPC) in 12 starts and 13 appearances. Maye’s 31.3 scramble YPG ranked fifth-best in the Fantasy Points Data history, which increased to 35.2 scramble YPG across his full games. The Patriots called just 7 designed runs for him as a rookie. Maye said he wants to scramble less than last season, but OC Josh McDaniels should utilize his mobile QB more than former OC Alex Van Pelt did.
Best Current Line: Drake Maye (NE) over 450.5 rushing yards (-115, ESPNBet)
New Orleans Saints
I was a year too early when I gave out the Saints to finish with the NFL’s fewest wins last season at +2600 odds. New Orleans mustered just five victories, and the Saints would be my favorite to win the fewest regular season games, but they share the co-favorite (dis)honor with the Browns entering the season. The Saints sank to the bottom of my power rankings after Derek Carr surprisingly announced his retirement in May, which left New Orleans with the NFL’s worst quarterback situation. The quarterback of New Orleans’ defense, Tyrann Mathieu, also retired on the eve of training camp to leave a void on defense. The only factor working in the Saints' favor is that they’ll face the third-easiest schedule based on season win totals. Kellen Moore has his work cut out for him as a first-time head coach with a team finally preparing to bottom out after years of putting it off.
Best Current Line: New Orleans Saints fewest regular season wins (+425, ESPNBet)
New York Giants
Nabers owned the biggest share of any passing game last season, and he did it as a 21-year-old rookie. He ranked first in target share (32.2%), second in air yards share (46.1%), second in team yards share (39.4%), and fifth in route share (89.6%). He finished seventh in receiving yards (1204) despite missing two games, and he ranked seventh in receiving YPG (80.3). Nabers has one of the best paths to dominating passing work once again because New York didn’t bring in any notable receivers in the off-season. Nabers showed some route-running chops as a rookie, ranking 23rd in A.S.S. (.112) among 180 receivers who ran 200+ routes last season. He excelled despite having one of the league’s worst quarterback situations, which has at least marginally improved.
Best Current Line: +1300, Caesars
New York Jets
Breece Hall could be stuck in a committee in one of the league’s worst offenses. The drumbeat has been consistent for Braelon Allen, who is having a strong training camp for the second straight summer. Zack Rosenblatt wrote that he looks “bigger, faster, and stronger,” and The Athletic staff wrote a headline that the Jets RB room “might be more 1A-1B than 1-2.” Aaron Glenn and new playcaller Tanner Engstrand came from a Lions offense that featured a lightning-and-thunder combo in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Rosenblatt also noted that Hall needs to do a better job of attacking the hole on wide-zone runs. Glenn has emphasized this won’t be a one-back offense, and Isaiah Davis is likely to make this backfield a three-headed monster.
Best Current Line: Breece Hall (NYJ) under 900.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
Philadelphia Eagles
Barkley is the deserving favorite to defend his rushing title after becoming the first player to run for 2000+ yards since Derrick Henry accomplished the feat in 2020. He led the league in attempts (345), rushing YPG (125.3), and rushing yards (2005) despite sitting out the season finale. Barkley led the league in YBCO/ATT (3.55) and explosive yards (835) behind the league’s best offensive line. Barkley figures to be the centerpiece of one of the league’s best offenses once again after the Eagles ranked 31st in pass rate over expectation (-6.1%). He previously had some issues staying on the field from 2019-21 in New York, but has racked up 996 carries over the last three years (postseason included).
Best Current Line: Saquon Barkley (Phi) most rushing yards (+420, FanDuel)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Kaleb Johnson has been projected to step into the former role occupied by Najee Harris, but the rookie has some work to do to earn snaps next to Jaylen Warren and to jump ahead of Kenneth Gainwell, who is going to have a bigger role than most people think. Gainwell garnered the start in the preseason opener with Warren resting, and Johnson relieved Gainwell in the first half. Johnson looked slow and sluggish in his first preseason action, bouncing multiple runs to the outside and showing little burst. His learning curve could be steeper than anticipated as he adjusts to the speed of the NFL, and he’ll have to fight off Warren and Gainwell for carries.
Best Current Line: Kaleb Johnson (Pit) under 750.5 rushing yards (-105, ESPNBet)
San Francisco 49ers
Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers most regular season wins (+1200, DraftKings). Risk .5 units to win 6 units. Under “Wins” then “Most Wins.” Placed Aug. 12.
The 49ers have yet to finish with the NFL’s best record in Kyle Shanahan’s first eight seasons as head coach, but they’ve finished with the NFC’s top record three times (2023, 2022, 2019) in the last six seasons. San Francisco entered last season as the NFC favorites to win the Super Bowl before they experienced a season from hell. Shanahan’s offense still finished fourth in yards per game (376.3) and third in yards per play (6.2) despite significant injuries on the offensive side of the ball. San Francisco’s defense should be significantly improved with Robert Saleh returning to coordinate the unit. The 49ers will benefit from playing the NFL’s easiest schedule, which gives them unique games against the Giants, Bears, and Browns. They’re also scheduled for games against the AFC South and NFC South, which puts a 12+ win season well within reach with much better luck in 2025.
Best Current Line: +1200, DraftKings
Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker is my favorite long-shot bet to lead the NFL in rushing yards. He’s been one of the best backs after contact, ranking 10th YACO/ATT (2.65) and first in MTF/ATT (.30) last season. The problem was that he ranked ahead of only Antonio Gibson in YBCO/ATT (1.09) among 46 RBs with 100+ carries. Seattle’s offensive line ranked 28th in adjusted YBC/ATT (1.56) and 28th in success rate (45.2%) in Ryan Grubb’s only season as playcaller. Mike Macdonald hired Klint Kubiak to call plays, who wants to focus on the run game with a zone scheme. Our Ryan Heath wrote, “Walker averages 4.54 career YPC on outside zone, reflecting a ~13% efficiency boost compared to all other carries. In contrast, Zach Charbonnet has averaged just 3.67 career YPC on outside zone, ~21% less than his average on other carries.” Walker ranked sixth in carry share (62.4%), even with Charbonnet nipping at his heels last season. Two coaching staffs have given Walker major workloads, and he’s talented enough to break out for a monster season if he gets enough running room up front and if he can stay healthy
Best Current Line: Kenneth Walker (Sea) to finish with the most rushing yards (+7500, ESPNBet)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Best Bet: Emeka Egbuka (TB) Offensive Rookie of the Year (+2800, Bet365). Risk .25 units to win 7 units. Placed Aug. 19.
Egbuka has been one of the fastest risers since the start of training camp, and his path to immediate production has been cleared. Jalen McMillan will be placed on the injured reserve for a severely sprained neck, which he suffered when he landed awkwardly in Tampa Bay’s second preseason game. McMillan could be out past Tampa Bay’s Week 9 bye, which is a major blow to a Tampa Bay WR room that could be without Chris Godwin (ankle) for at least the first month of the season. Godwin underwent a second ankle surgery in the spring and it would be shocking if he doesn’t start the season on the PUP list. Egbuka has been the standout performer of Tampa’s camp, and he’ll step into Godwin’s spot in the lineup early in the season. Godwin led the NFL in receptions (50) and receiving yards (576) through seven weeks before his injury.
Best Current Line: +2800, Bet365
Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears suffered a high ankle sprain in the preseason opener, which will keep him out a few weeks. Spears will be in a race to be ready for the start of the season, and the injury could linger into the season. Tony Pollard posted an 86.6% snap share, a 68.8% carry share, and 100.5 rushing YPG in the four contests Spears missed. Even when Spears was healthy, Pollard easily paced him in snap share (69%>42%) and carry share (62%>29%) on his way to posting career-highs in carries (260) and rushing yards (1079). Pollard saw the largest designed carry share of his career at 66.4%, and averaged 4.2 YPC in an offense with one of the league’s worst passing games. Cam Ward will give this offense an immediate upgrade, which gives Pollard a chance for his fourth straight 1000-yard campaign.
Best Current Line: Tony Pollard (Ten) over 850.5 rushing yards (-105, ESPNBet)
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels has won the Heisman Trophy and the Offensive Rookie of the Year in back-to-back seasons, so why not add an MVP trophy to his haul in 2025? He set QB rookie records for rushing yards (891), completion percentage (69%), and team points per game (28.5). He also tied Ben Roethlisberger for the most wins as a rookie QB with 14 (postseason included), and he reset rookie QB postseason records in passing yards (822), passing TDs (5), and rushing yards (135). The Commanders are already all-in, maximizing his rookie contract by trading for Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil, which could help vault him to the top tier of quarterbacks in Year 2.
Best Current Line: Jayden Daniels (Was) to win the MVP (+1000, FanDuel)
