Statistically Significant: Designed Targets

Which type of play is worth ~1.7 fantasy points each (in PRR scoring), has a ~91.4% success rate, and doesn’t even require the receiver to separate against his defender?

Think of designed targets as pre-determined plays. Rather than the QB dropping back, reading the field, and (hopefully) throwing to an open receiver, the recipient of a designed target is set in stone the moment the play call comes in.

These are typically screen plays, with the receiver catching the ball behind the line of scrimmage and attempting to turn upfield and gain yards after the catch, often assisted by motion and/or blockers to create open lanes in front of him. (I’ll be using “screen” and “designed target” mostly interchangeably for this article.)

Designed targets break one of the biggest rules we’re used to as fantasy managers. Typically, “targets are earned” — even if teams slightly tip the scales via first reads — naturally resulting in the best “target-earners” or separators getting the ball the most often. This is confirmed by target-related metrics being among the “stickiest” in fantasy football (in the middle column below). In other words, players who earn lots of targets generally continue to do so in subsequent seasons.

Designed targets differ because a player doesn’t necessarily have to be a good separator to earn them. Some play callers intelligently dole out these easy-button touches to their most dynamic players after the catch, but others give them to Wan’Dale Robinson instead of Malik Nabers. Notice that designed targets (0.629, above) are less “sticky” for players than regular targets; this reflects the additional control coaches exert over them, especially when players are paired with new play callers.

For fantasy football, designed targets generally augment a player’s weekly floor. Unlike downfield targets (which are catchable much less often), an offense that desires it won’t have many issues completing a few screens per game, regardless of the matchup. They don’t always turn into big plays, but a couple of catches can easily turn into an extra 2.0 to 4.0 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring.

Below are 2024’s leaders in designed targets. I’ve highlighted a few players for whom designed usage could be incredibly important in 2025.

2025 NFL Designed Target Leaders

Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter, WRs, Jacksonville Jaguars

Underdog ADPs: WR8 and WR27

New Jaguars HC Liam Coen is the NFL’s most prolific screen play designer. Under him in 2024, Chris Godwin averaged a position-leading 4.8 FPG on designed targets (the difference between ranking as the ~WR2 or the ~WR24), with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White stepping in down the stretch to both rank top-5 in designed targets per game at their position.

As I argued extensively in my Sophomore WR Manifesto, Brian Thomas is a prime candidate to receive this treatment in 2025. In one of the most bullish quotes I’ve ever heard a coach give on a player, Coen promised to frequently move Thomas around the field (including into the slot) and design him screens, expanding his assignments beyond only deep vertical routes. All of this is highly advantageous for fantasy scoring.

But I also can’t count out Travis Hunter, who amassed the most screen targets (23) of any Day 1 or Day 2 Power Conference WR in the class last year. While it will be difficult for him to play a truly full-time (90%+ route share) role on offense while playing both ways, it makes all the sense in the world for Coen to use him in designed packages, maximizing his impact whenever he’s on the field as he did for Irving. It’s very hard to be an impactful fantasy WR in a part-time role, but Hunter could well be an exception as a lower-route share but high-TPRR player if he’s used this way.

Coen has proven there’s plenty of designed usage to go around for both of these WRs. All told, I’m still comfortable with Thomas as a top-6 WR in all formats, while Hunter checks in as my 1.04 in dynasty rookie drafts within a tight tier with Tetairoa McMillan and Omarion Hampton.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Underdog ADP: WR34

As we discussed, Godwin’s league-leading 4.8 FPG on screens is largely what propelled him to his WR2 overall pace (19.7 FPG) over his seven games. After he went down, his 1.7 designed targets per game mainly were distributed among Rachaad White and Bucky Irving — players Todd Bowles has remained enamored with since. With screen god Liam Coen gone (even if internal hire Josh Grizzard replaced him) and Godwin returning from a gruesome ankle dislocation, I’m not sure you can project him for much screen work in 2025.

Of course, that would be alright by itself; Godwin is being drafted as just the ~WR34, a far cry from his 2024 pace. But the addition of Round 1 rookie Emeka Egbuka — whom Brett Whitefield projects as a slot-heavy player in the NFL — has me wondering if the Bucs might try moving Godwin outside when they’re in 11-personnel (which they played on 71.7% of their snaps in 2024, the 8th-most of any team).

The last time Godwin lined up primarily on the outside was in 2023, by far his worst recent fantasy season (12.3 FPG, ~WR36). It’s also telling that despite all his extra routes from outside that year, more than half of his production still came from the slot or on screens.

None of this is to say Godwin’s an indefensible pick at cost. I just see enough additional risk along with his “shooting for Week 1” injury timetable that I’ll prefer to click players like Travis Hunter, Jordan Addison, and Ken Walker around his Underdog ADP. I fear we could see a reverse of his 2024 season, and a repeat of his 2023.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

Underdog ADP: RB20

Kamara received a whopping 56% of the Saints’ screen targets last year, averaging 3.5 FPG on them. Without those looks, he’d have ranked as just the RB13 by FPG.

New Saints HC Kellen Moore has always spread out his designed looks; no player under Moore has seen more than 35% of their team’s screen targets since 2021. When he was with the Cowboys from 2021-2022, no player averaged even 1.0 designed target per game, with CeeDee Lamb (0.9 in 2022) the closest. That was despite an explosive-at-the-time Tony Pollard (who averaged a position-leading 5.94 yards per touch in 2022) also being on the roster.

With the Chargers in 2023, Moore similarly split designed looks between Austin Ekeler (1.4 designed targets/game) and Keenan Allen (0.9). And then last year, the Eagles under Moore ranked dead last in the NFL in these looks, after having ranked above average over Jalen Hurts’ previous three seasons.

This isn’t to say that a lack of designed targets will make or break Kamara’s season. The potential loss of Derek Carr and the risk of hitting the Age Cliff are both more pressing issues — Kamara averaged just 15.3 FPG (~RB17) without Carr last year. Still, a player like Rashid Shaheed or Chris Olave eating into screen work as Keenan Allen and CeeDee Lamb did under Moore would be a further hit to Kamara’s ceiling. He’s just a risky RB2 to me in 2025 rather than an exciting discounted volume bet.

De’Von Achane, RB, and Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins

Underdog ADPs: RB7 and TE6

The Dolphins have ranked in the top 5 in screen targets over each of the past two seasons. Accordingly, De’Von Achane led his position in FPG on screens during both his years in the NFL, including the most in Fantasy Points Data history (4.9) last season. This grants him a rare invulnerability to being scripted out of games when the Dolphins fall behind, and locks him into my top-6 at the position. Even if the guard play doesn’t improve via the additions of James Daniels and Round 2 pick Jonah Savaiinaea, similar designed target volume should again carry Achane to the 22.6 FPG on 20.3 XFP/G he averaged in Tua Tagovailoa’s starts — each of which would have led the position last year.

Speaking of the offensive line, their inability to protect Tagovailoa while downfield routes developed was no doubt one component of the offense’s shift away from targeting its WRs in 2024. But considering Tagovailoa’s average time to throw (2.21 seconds) was nearly the same as in 2023, there’s more to the story.

Tyreek Hill’s 2.6 FPG (4th-most among WRs) on designed targets in 2023 fell to just 1.0 (33rd) last season. All of that and more went to Jonnu Smith, whose 2.3 FPG on screens tied for the most by a TE in Fantasy Points Data history. (Are you noticing a pattern here?) One could argue Hill’s improved health after offseason wrist surgery might encourage HC Mike McDaniel to shift these easy-button touches back his way, but the overall vibes are still rough given the combination of his frustration with the team, recent police encounter, and proximity to the age cliff. (Hill turned 31 in March, and elite WRs generally decline around their Age-32 season.)

In contrast, Smith rewarded McDaniel’s featuring of him by leading all Dolphins receivers in YAC/R (5.89) and 1D/RR (.139) — the latter ranking behind only A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mike Evans, and Nico Collins among all players. Considering we’ve only seen one season of it, Smith’s screen volume is more fragile than Achane’s, but I’m convinced McDaniel has found Smith’s perfect utilization and is simply the first coach to scale it up to a near-full-time role (see below). After the Dolphins made no real offseason additions to their receiving corps, I’m inclined to lock Smith in as a top-6 TE once again.

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

Underdog ADP: WR18

While new Bears OC Ben Johnson has long been known to maximize volume to the slot, he’s also mostly preferred to direct most of his screen targets to the RB position. That included the duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, but also D’Andre Swift (whom Johnson supposedly hates but did not draft any real competition for) back in 2022.

Even Johnson’s favorite slot target in Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged just under 1.0 screen target per game during his tenure. For comparison, D.J. Moore averaged 2.4(!) screen targets per game last year, and would have scored just 9.5 FPG without all of that designed work.

And it’s not just that we’ve never seen a Ben Johnson WR command the type of screen volume Moore made his living from in 2024. The Bears also just drafted Luther Burden with the 39th overall pick, a YAC and MTF freak who led all Power Conference WRs in his draft class in screen yards during his breakout 2023 campaign (per PFF). Moore’s screen volume is nowhere close to safe.

I’ve been talking out of both sides of my mouth regarding Moore. I still believe he’s the best WR on the roster and that there’s a world where his utilization could mirror St. Brown’s on in-breaking routes. These screen-related revelations simply make me more determined to wait to get my exposure later in the summer, as Moore’s ADP continues to fall from where it opened at ~WR18 immediately following the Draft.

Players Whose Screen Usage Fell Off In 2024

• Michael Pittman went from averaging 1.9 FPG on 1.3 screen targets per game in 2023 to just 0.7 FPG on 0.8 screen targets per game in 2024. This was likely due to him playing through a back injury that could have ended his season for most of the year. I’m not sure whether this usage will return in 2025 — Pittman isn’t exactly a YAC god — but in any case, his bigger issue is the passing game-killing presence of Anthony Richardson. However, if you project Daniel Jones to start more games than Richardson (as we have), Pittman’s WR53 Underdog ADP at least becomes interesting.

• Similarly, Dallas Goedert saw his screen usage cut in half in 2024 from 1.1 to 0.5 targets per game, accounting for a loss of 1.2 FPG. That’s likely because he battled knee and hamstring injuries all season, which may explain why the Eagles are reluctant to extend him, inciting recent trade rumors. Despite that, I don’t actually see a lot of downside at his current TE17 ADP; he’s pretty likely to start somewhere this year.

• Travis Kelce fell from 1.5 FPG on 1.1 screen targets per game in 2023 to just 0.7 FPG on screens in 2024. This is almost certainly a reflection of Kelce’s age, as well as Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy each ranking top-20 in screen targets per game in 2024 (2.0 and 1.1). All drafters should have their ears to the ground during the Chiefs’ training camp to ascertain which of the pair will ultimately see that usage when both young WRs are available in 2025, but I’m pretty confident it won’t be Kelce. Still, his TE7 ADP is rather reasonable.

• Finally, as we discussed above, Tyreek Hill averaged 1.1 fewer FPG on screens in 2024, thanks to his previous 1.8 screen targets per game largely being transferred to Jonnu Smith. That doesn’t come close to entirely explaining his fantasy falloff last year (the Dolphins facing more two-high looks, his wrist injury, age, and his off-the-field focus are all possible contributing factors as well), but if you’re a Smith doubter for 2025, Hill would be the most likely beneficiary. Hill isn’t a player I’m comfortable having zero of, but his WR13 ADP is pricier than I’d like.