For those of you who aren’t afraid to make trades and thirst for data-supported methods to better your team throughout the season, this weekly series is for you. I’ll supply you with quick hits for our rest-of-season top-50 players, and their trade outlook.
Every league is different, and your trade approach should be catered to the individual you’re dealing with, but here is my general trade guide and checklist:
First, take a good, hard look at your squad and how your players are performing, and figure out where the strengths and weaknesses lie. Do you have too much depth, too little, is a certain position group underperforming, and do you have additional value that you can unload to upgrade elsewhere?
Once you recognize the needs of your team and how your starting lineup can be improved, take the same, good, hard look at every other team in your league. Identify any holes that other teams have that players on your roster can fill.
Here is the golden rule of trading: both managers need to feel like their team improves from the trade. Going in with that mindset will lead you to more trade success than anything else.
Never look to fleece another manager, belittle them (or their players), and if they don’t see eye to eye with you, ask what could move the needle, before amicably moving on if you can’t get a deal done in that moment.
Managers will almost always have players on their teams that are “off limits”, but when push comes to shove, and you’re in a bind, you’ll have to make some sacrifices. I am willing to trade any player at any time if I believe it will help my team win more and increase my odds of making the playoffs.
Week 1 is always littered with overreactions, which typically leads me to wait 3-4 games for player trends to fully develop before I test the trade market. That being said, there are value opportunities available if someone wants to jump ship on top-tier talent too quickly, or overpay for an outlier performance. I’ll continue to add my outlook on these top-50 players and more as the season progresses.
Based on trade opportunities I’ve already heard my followers experience, and how the community appears to currently be valuing players, there is a possibility you package some of the non-elite Week 1 high-performers for a top-25 player in these rankings.
1. Ja’Marr Chase, WR1, CIN
Joe Burrow has been notoriously bad in Week 1 in each of the last three seasons, and has also been held under 200 passing yards in three of his previous four starts against the Browns. Chase ran only 26 routes in Week 1, after averaging 41.1 per game in 2024. There is no need to panic. Chase averaged only 9.9 FPG over his first two starts last season and would still go on to finish as the triple-crown winner.
2. Bijan Robinson, RB1, ATL
Nearly half of Robinson’s fantasy points came on the 3rd play from scrimmage, where he reeled in a screen pass and took it 50 yards to the house (12.0 of his 24.4 fantasy points). Neither he nor Tyler Allgeier had success on the ground, and both RBs recorded under 2.50 YPC, but Robinson would outsnap Allgeier 59-18. Robinson also ran the most routes among all RBs (36), resulting in 7 targets and accounting for 90.1% of his total fantasy points.
3. Saquon Barkley, RB2, PHI
Barkley had a solid fantasy outing in Week 1, finishing with 18.4 fantasy points on 22 total touches. It was clear that hampered LG Landon Dickerson hurt their run game, as Barkley saw only 1.06 yards before contact per attempt. I was encouraged by his work as a receiver, where he reeled in 4 receptions on 5 targets (he averaged only 2.4 Targets/G in 2024), and his seeing 2 out of 3 of the Eagles' carries inside the five-yard line (41% rate in 2024).
4. Christian McCaffrey, RB3, SF
The demise of McCaffrey’s calves was greatly exaggerated, and he would lead all RBs in total touches (31) and XFP (30.1) in Week 1. I still expect the occasional “injury report” scare for McCaffrey if he sustains this workload, but his 23.2 FP without scoring a TD is extremely encouraging. The injuries to Jauan Jennings and George Kittle should only lead to further dependency on McCaffrey.
5. Puka Nacua, WR2, LAR
Is there a tougher or more exciting WR in the NFL than Nacua? Despite taking a massive hit, and leaving the game at one point (needing stitches above his eye), Nacua led all receivers in receptions (10), ranked 2nd in receiving yards (130), and 2nd in FP/RR (1.10). So long as he and Stafford are healthy, Nacua will remain one of the most valuable WRs in fantasy football.
Outlook: Try to buy if the owner even so much as entertains the possibility of trading Nacua
6. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB4, DET
It was a rough day for the entirety of the Lions' offense, especially on the ground. Gibbs' 2.11 YPC was the lowest of his career, and he was out-touched by David Montgomery 11-9 on rush attempts. Gibbs still outsnapped Montgomery 42-25, and recorded a 60.5% route share that resulted in 10 targets, which would lead all RBs in Week 1. In a game where the Lions only scored 1 TD (in garbage time), Gibbs' 18.9 XFP ranked 3rd-best among RBs.
7. CeeDee Lamb, WR3, DAL
The narrative surrounding Lamb’s Week 1 performance is largely centered around his 3 drops (including the one on 4th down that “lost them the game”). What people should be focusing on are his 13 targets, which resulted in 18.0 fantasy points. Lamb was by far the best receiver on the field for Dallas, touting an impressive 0.194 average separation score and 25.8% route win rate (3.55 YPRR).
Outlook: Try to buy if the owner whined about Lamb’s drops in your League’s group chat
8. Ashton Jeanty, RB5, LV
As expected, Jeanty was the bell cow RB for the Raiders in Week 1, seeing an 85.5% snap share and 19/22 of the total rush attempts. Outside of two or three runs, there was nowhere for Jeanty to go with his O-line giving him only 0.26 yards before contact per attempt. He did see 2 targets on 19 routes run, an encouraging sign that receiving upside is on the table.
Outlook: Buy
9. Justin Jefferson, WR4, MIN
Jefferson suffered at the hands of one of the worst 3-quarter rookie QB debut performances I’ve ever seen. Jefferson only ran 23 routes, but commanded a 35.0% target share on his way to a modest 14.8 FP performance. JJ McCarthy’s 4th-quarter resilience (149.5 passer rating) was enough to re-instill confidence in Jefferson remaining an overall WR1 candidate going forward.
Outlook: Buy
10. Malik Nabers, WR5, NYG
It was a frustrating day for the Giants' offense, and Nabers would lead all WRs in uncatchable air yards (73). He saw just a 54.5% catchable target rate from Russell Wilson, leaving a lot of fantasy points on the table (his -16.4 FPOE led the league). Hold tight until Andrew Thomas returns, and we hopefully eventually see Jaxson Dart under center.
Outlook: Hold/target in a few weeks when Thomas is expected to return
11. Derrick Henry, RB6, BLT
Death, taxes, and King Henry remaining the best pure rusher in the NFL. Henry recorded 18 rush attempts for 169 yards (1st), 9.39 YPC (1st), 2 TDs (1st), a 22.2% explosive run rate (1st), 5.11 YACO/Att (2nd), and 30.2 FP (1st) in Week 1.
12. Nico Collins, WR6, HST
I have nothing nice to say about the Texans or their abysmal O-line (Stroud was pressured on 52.9% of his dropbacks). Collins' comically low TPRR (0.17) and first-read target rate (25.0%) were both lower than any healthy game of his from 2024. This was despite recording a 0.172 average separation score and 17.2% route win rate.
Outlook: Buy
13. De’Von Achane, RB7, MIA
Achane was the lone bright spot of the Dolphins' offense, and one of the very few efficient RBs in Week 1 (7 carries for 55 yards). The Dolphins played from behind all day, hence the 9 total RB carries, but Achane’s receiving line was his fantasy savior (3-20-1). This team worries me greatly, but Achane still benefits whether they’re playing from ahead or behind
Outlook: Buy
14. Bucky Irving, RB8, TB
Bell cow Bucky was in full effect in Week 1, where he saw a 79.0% XFP share of the Buccaneers' backfield. His 76.8% snap share eclipsed any mark he earned last year, and he also recorded the only two backfield touches inside the 10-yard line. Any return to the level of efficiency he displayed in 2024, with this level of volume, would make him a top-5 RB for the rest of the season.
Outlook: Buy
15. Trey McBride, TE1, ARZ
It was business as usual for McBride, who saw a 96.7% snap rate and 89.2% route share in Week 1. McBride led the team in target share (27.6%), but was outproduced by Marvin Harrison Jr., who flashed a career-best connection with Kyle Murray. Increased involvement and an evolved route tree from Harrison in 2025 could spell a lower fantasy ceiling for McBride.
16. Brian Thomas Jr., WR7, JAX
Thomas and Trevor Lawrence were not on the same page in Week 1, and Thomas’ 42.9% catchable target rate would rank 2nd-worst among all receivers. It was also discouraging to see Thomas out-targeted and out-produced by rookie “two-way” player Travis Hunter in his first NFL start. Why do I miss Mac Jones right now?
Outlook: Hold
17. Drake London, WR8, ATL
London ranked 2nd in XFP in Week 1 (28.3), and was inches away from a 4th quarter TD grab that would have led to a 20+ fantasy point performance. He is now averaging 13.5 Targets/G across his 4 starts alongside Michael Penix Jr., and looks to be playing in Week 2 despite his shoulder injury.
Outlook: Aggressively Buy
18. Chase Brown, RB9, CIN
The Bengals' O-line was as bad as I expected them to be, allowing -0.48 yards before contact per attempt for Brown. Brown still saw 100% of the Bengals' rush attempts, forcing a league high 7 missed tackles on those 21 attempts. Brown only ran 12 total routes to Samaje Perine’s 11, but his 18.2 XFP ranked 5th-best among RBs in Week 1.
Outlook: Buy
19. Brock Bowers, TE2, LV
Bowers recorded the highest route win rate (21.7%) and average separation score (0.217) amongst TEs in Week 1. He only ran 23 routes and saw just a 50.0% snap share, the lowest of his career so far. This usage isn’t of much concern for me, especially considering he was one of only eight receivers to go over 100 yards in Week 1.
20. Jonathan Taylor, RB10, IND
Daniel Jones vulturing a rushing TD on a QB sneak was the difference between 12.8 fantasy points and a top-6 finish in Week 1 for Taylor. Taylor would only see 40% of the rush attempts inside the 5-yard line on the day, but I was encouraged by the 3 receptions he had, a mark he matched only two times in 2024.
21. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR9, DET
St. Brown recorded the lowest single TPRR in any healthy game in the last three years (0.13), and the last time he recorded less than a 0.20 TPRR was in his rookie season back in 2021 (with no Ben Johnson). Week 1 is always an aberration for fantasy, but this Johnson-less Lions offense struggled heavily right out of the gate.
22. Josh Jacobs, RB11, GB
Jacobs remains the bell cow (89.1% snap share) in what could very well be a top-5 offense this season. The Packers' menacing defense should only lead to positive game scripts for Jacobs throughout the season, where he’ll remain a reliable RB1.
Outlook: Buy
23. Jayden Daniels, QB1, WAS
Daniels was sharp in Week 1, recording a 12.0% completion percentage over expectation and a 53.3% highly accurate throw rate (both higher than his 2024 averages). He did overthrow Terry McLaurin on what would have been a 70+ yard TD, but he was effective on the ground, recording 68.0 rushing yards (2024 average was 52.4/G)
24. Josh Allen, QB2, BUF
It’s almost like every time Allen drops back in the pocket, you assume there is a good chance it's going to be the positive play (which we can’t say about half the QBs in the NFL). You invest early draft capital into a QB because they can single-handedly win you fantasy matchups, and nobody does that more often than Allen over the last couple of years.
25. Jalen Hurts, QB3, PHI
Hurts flashed his rushing upside early and often in the season opener, finishing the night with 14 rush attempts for 62.0 rushing yards and 2 TDs. The passing game was lacking under new OC Kevin Patullo, and on top of AJ Brown’s historically bad outing, DeVona Smith also struggled to get open (-0.031 average separation score). Hurts was extremely conservative as a passer, recording a 4.5 aDOT with only one pass attempt of 20+ yards downfield.
Outlook: Buy
26. Lamar Jackson, QB4, BLT
Jackson was hyper-efficient as ever, leading the league in FP/DB in Week 1 (1.33). Adding another end zone threat in DeAndre Hopkins seems borderline unfair, as Jackson would also lead all QBs in passer rating (144.4). A suspect Ravens defense only serves to maintain the absurdly high weekly fantasy ceiling that Jackson touts.
27. Ladd McConkey, WR10, LAC
McConkey (13.4 FP) being outproduced by both Quentin Johnston (24.9 FP) and Keenan Allen (19.8 FP) was certainly unexpected in Week 1. Here is what I was encouraged by: his 92.7% Route Share, 0.316 average separation score, and 28.9% route win rate. What concerns me a little bit is that even though McConkey separated at an extremely high level, he was still outtargetted by Allen (0.24 TPRR to Allen’s 0.31 TPRR).
Outlook: HOLD
28. A.J. Brown, WR11, PHI
The Eagles' WR1… wait a second, where is Jahan Dotson in these rankings? Brown getting outproduced by a WR who only recorded 19 receptions in 2024 was not on my bingo card for Week 1. Brown was historically bad in the season opener, recording a 0.0% route win rate for the first time since 2022. Brown has also been steadily declining in fantasy production over each of the last three years, and this performance does not inspire confidence for 2025.
Outlook: Shop around
29. Tee Higgins, WR12, CIN
Higgins ran even fewer routes than Chase in Week 1 (25), while also suffering at the hands of a poor offensive showing from Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 1. He saw 13% fewer horizontally breaking routes in Week 1 (historically lucrative) and zero end zone targets (after ranking 2nd in per-game end zone targets in 2024).
30. Mike Evans, WR13, TB
As something I alluded to being a possibility, the Buccaneers' passing attack struggled to produce in Week 1 without Tristan Wirfs and Liam Coen. Evans was still in elite form, recording a 0.400 separation score (5th) and 40.0% route win rate (3rd). TDs will surely come in the following weeks for the 2024 end zone target per game leader (1.21).
Outlook: Target after Week 2 if Stingley holds him under 14 fantasy points
31. Joe Burrow, QB5, CIN
Please see sections on Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The O-line is my main concern when it comes to Burrow, not just for offensive production, but for his safety. Burrow saw the 6th-highest pressure rate over expectation (13.80%), and ended the day with just 113 passing yards. He should find an easier matchup in Week 2 against the Jaguars.
32. Kyren Williams, RB12, LAR
Kyren remained the bell cow for the Rams in Week 1, recording an 80.7% snap share (6th-best), while seeing 18 of the 19 backfield touches, which included 2 out of the 3 of the rush attempts inside the 5-yard line (Stafford QB sneak was the other). Despite seeing the 9th-highest yards before contact per carry (2.00 yards), Kyren earned only 3.67 YPC, 0 explosive runs, and a 41.7% success rate in man/gap concepts.
33. Alvin Kamara, RB13, NO
The Saints' backfield saw the 6th-lowest backfield XFP in Week 1 (14.4). Kamara saw 2 targets after averaging 7.5 targets per game in Spencer Rattler’s seven starts last season. He also commanded only 61.1% of the backfield touches, despite seeing an 81.2% backfield snap share.
34. Davante Adams, WR14, LAR
If there was ever a buy-low window on Adams, it would be right now. He only ran 26 routes in Week 1, and was shadowed by top-tier DB Derek Stingley on 57.7% of those routes. He still managed to record a 0.31 TPRR, while ranking 3rd in separation score (0.423) and 5th in route win rate (34.6%).
Outlook: Aggressively Buy
35. Breece Hallm, RB14, NYJ
Breece Hall…is…back… baby? Hall just torched the 5th-stingest defense in terms of YPC allowed last season, to the tune of 107 rushing yards on 19 attempts (5.63 YPC) in Week 1. He was explosive (51 explosive rushing yards), shifty (5 missed forced tackles), resilient (49 yards after contact), and impressive on nearly every touch. His downfall may have been greatly exaggerated.
36. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR15, SEA
With the craziest stat of Week 1, Smith-Njigba had an absolutely bonkers 90.9% air yard share. He also led all WRs in first read target share (66.7%), TPRR (0.62), and XFP/RR (1.03). Among 7 Seahawks players to run at least 5 routes, Smith-Njigba was the only one who recorded a positive separation score. He has WR1 overall upside when the TDs inevitably come rolling in.
Outlook: Flip a high Week 1 performer outside this top-50 in a package for this man
37. Tyreek Hill, WR16, MIA
Nothing was more on-brand than Hill having a meltdown on the sidelines in the first half of the Dolphins' season opener, and that being followed up with domestic violence accusations from his ex-wife a day later. Tua Tagovailoa was absolutely awful in Week 1 (51.7 passer rating), and I have massive concerns about this passing offense as a whole for 2025.
Outlook: Shop around
38. DK Metcalf, WR17, PIT
Metcalf drew the short straw in Week 1, seeing the shadow coverage treatment from Sauce Gardner on 88.9% of his routes. He still saw 7 targets and recorded 83 receiving yards (3.07 YPRR), resulting in a modest 12.3 fantasy points. We can expect better days ahead, and I was very encouraged by Aaron Rodgers’ performance (136.7 passer rating).
39. Garrett Wilson, WR18, DAL
New OC Tanner Engstrand had this Jets offense absolutely humming in Week 1. I outlined why I was bullish on Wilson in their projected scheme under Engstrand, and we saw that proclivity to use play action and pre-snap motion pay off immediately. One of the biggest reasons I was all in on Wilson with Fields at QB was because of his ability to beat man coverage (which was why DJ More was so successful with Fields in 2023). Wilson had a 0.492 separation score (16th) against man coverage in Week 1.
Outlook: Buy
40. Omarion Hampton, RB15, LAC
Everyone seems to have a different interpretation of Hampton’s rookie debut. There are a lot of positives we can take away from his usage alone: 80.6% Snap Share (out-touching Najee Harris 15-1), 53.7% route share (22 routes run), and 11.8 XFP. Jim Harbaugh already trusting Hampton with 4th-and-1 attempts, against a team like the Chiefs, speaks volumes. Hampton saw only 1.13 yards before contact per attempt against one of the stingiest run defenses in the NFL, and better matchups will come (Raiders in Week 2).
Outlook: Aggressively buy
41. James Cook, RB16, BUF
Cook benefitted from a high-scoring shootout in Week 1, seeing 5 targets on a night where Josh Allen threw the ball 46 times (2024 average: 28.4). Cook only saw 2 of the 7 Bills rush attempts inside the five-yard line (resulting in 1 TD), and a middling 57.7% snap share.
Outlook: Sell
42. Chuba Hubbard, RB17, CAR
Hubbard saw the Lion’s share of backfield touches in Week 1, despite any narrative that his 3-down role was at risk. To further quiet the 2025 receiving upside naysayers, Hubbard earned 4 targets, resulting in a 27-yard TD catch, and a 2.00 YPRR on the day.
Outlook: Buy
43. Kenneth Walker III, RB18, SEA
*Begins to sweat profusely* Here are the few silver linings for Walker in Week 1: he outscored Zach Charbonnet in XFP (10.8 to 10.5) and out-touched him on 3 of the team’s first 4 drives. The caveat? All three of Walker’s drives resulted in a three-and-out. Here’s to hoping the O-line offers him positive yards before contact per attempt in Week 2 (-0.10 in Week 1 - which might actually be his fault).
Outlook: Hold and pray to any Gods you believe in ahead of Week 2
44. James Conner, RB19, ARZ
Color me officially worried that the propaganda this would be 1a/1b backfield in 2025 had some truth to it. Conner only saw 60.0% of the backfield rush attempts and was outplayed by Trey Benson across the board. His usage as a receiver out of the backfield (4 targets and 1 TD) is one of the few positives from Week 1.
Outlook: Sell
45. Courtland Sutton, WR19, DEN
In a game where Bo Nix struggled heavily (60.0 passer rating), Sutton remained his safety blanket and go-to end zone target. Sutton also dominated the snap share market amongst the Broncos WRs at 93.0% (next closest was Troy Franklin with 59.2%). Sutton should see increased receiving volume opportunities if Evan Engram misses any time (taking his 0.33 TPRR with him).
46. Tetairoa McMillan, WR20, CAR
I was incredibly encouraged after McMillan’s Week 1 performance. He had not one, but two “would-be” highlight reel-type catches that fell short by a hair. His 44.2% yardage market share ranked 2nd-highest amongst receivers, and it was clear that he is already head and shoulders above any other Panthers WR.
Outlook: Aggressively Buy
47. Tony Pollard, RB20, TEN
As expected, Pollard dominated the team's backfield XFP share (84.0%) and led all RBs in snap share (89.1%) in the absence of Tyaje Spears. Unfortunately, he faced the 2nd-stingiest rush defense in the league, and saw only 0.72 yards before contact per attempt.
Outlook: Buy
48. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR21, ARZ
Dare I say it, the Kyler Murray and Harrison connection looked much better in Year 2 so far? Harrison turned his 6 targets into 18.1 fantasy points and recorded the highest passer rating when targeted in Week 1 (155.6). Harrison also saw the first designed play of his career!
49. Calvin Ridley, WR22, TEN
Ridley got the Pat Surtain treatment in Week 1, and was shadowed on 87.1% of his routes (not scoring a single fantasy point on those routes). Cam Ward had an objectively awful stat line in his debut, so easier matchups might not immediately lead to “better days ahead” for Ridley.
Outlook: Hold
50. George Pickens WR23, DAL
Pickens drew a PI call against Quinyon Mitchell on a 40-yard pass in the first quarter, which he nearly reeled in through illegal contact (the difference between a 6.0 and 11.0 fantasy points performance). 4 total targets for Pickens on Dak Prescott’s 34 pass attempts isn’t an ideal start, but I was encouraged by how often he was able to get open (evident by his 18.8% route win rate), and even more encouraged by how well Prescott played.
