The regular season is now complete, and our next stop is the Wild Card round of the 2024 NFL postseason. This article’s primary focus will be on the Sunday games (which are the DraftKings main slate), highlighting coverage trends/splits at both the team and player levels to identify lucrative DFS plays.
Let’s get right to it!
Team Defenses
Coverage rates from playoff defenses pic.twitter.com/mGmmgDpDj6
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) January 6, 2025
Quarterback Values
Lucrative Passing Offenses
Wide Receiver/Tight End Values
DEN @ BUF
The Denver Broncos (10-7) hit the road and get set to take on the Buffalo Bills (13-4) in their first playoff appearance since 2015. The Bills are 8.5-point home favorites, and the game total is currently hovering around 48 points.
Josh Allen ($8,200) is priced as the DK QB1, and Bo Nix ($6,300) is priced as the DK QB7.
Defensively, DEN blitzes at the 6th-highest rate in the league (33.0%), while BUF blitzes at the 4th-lowest rate (20.0%).
Allen averages the 2nd-highest points per dropback when blitzed (0.62), while Nix is more productive on non-blitz dropbacks relative to when he’s blitzed:
DEN is impressive in all phases this season, but they’re particularly elite in coverage. DEN allows -0.06 EPA per dropback to opposing offenses, best in the NFL (rbsdm.com/stats).
Opposing offenses dropback to pass at the third-highest rate in neutral situations vs. DEN (60%). Dropbacks include scrambles and sacks, two production components that Josh Allen is hyper efficient in.
DEN deploys man coverage at the 5th-highest rate among defenses (36.4%). This works in Allen’s favor, given his superior fantasy production vs man relative to zone on a per-dropback basis:
Here are notable pass catchers in this matchup:
Amari Cooper ($4,900) and Keon Coleman ($4,600) are the Bills’ premier WRs vs man coverage:
TE Dalton Kincaid ($4,000) is targeted most often on his man routes among these BUF pass catchers:
As for BUF defensively, they're tied for 4th in usage of two-high shells (54.7%) and they rank 8th in zone usage (73.1%).
DEN WRs Marvin Mims ($5,100) and Devaughn Vele ($4,100) make compelling cases this week, given the coverage matchup:
BUF allows 35.1% of their targets to players lined up in the slot. This is the 4th-highest among defenses this season.
During the regular season, Devaughn Vele ran nearly 70% of his routes from the slot, while Marvin Mims was just a tick below 35%. But Mims is targeted on 40% of his routes from the slot, while Vele is targeted on 18% of his slot routes.
Vele is on the field more often than Mims and is a “safer” pick, but if you’re shooting for the moon and have an appetite for risk, Mims is the play.
GB @ PHI
The Green Bay Packers (11-6) travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles (14-3) at 4:30 PM EST on Sunday. The Eagles are currently 4.5-point home favorites and the game total is at 45.5 points.
These teams last played in Week 1 in Brazil, where the Eagles won by a final score of 34-29.
Jalen Hurts ($7,300) is priced as the DK QB4, and Jordan Love ($5,800) is priced as the DK QB9. Hurts is still technically considered questionable to play, but he practiced in full on Thursday, so it’d be a surprise if he doesn’t go.
These defenses have made it tough for signal callers. PHI ranked 3rd (-2.9) and GB ranked 4th (-2.2) in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs during the regular season.
In addition, both offenses are extremely run-heavy. GB ranks dead last (46%), and PHI ranks 30th (50%) in neutral pass rate.
This is one of those games where identifying the optimal coverage matchups (if they exist) could provide a substantial ROI in fantasy output.
Defensively, GB is tied for 2nd in zone coverage usage this season (78.3%).
Hurts is far more productive vs. man compared to zone for fantasy purposes:
PHI drops back vs zone at a bottom ten frequency (64.1%). The threat of the run between Hurts and RB Saquon Barkley ($8,500) is a significant catalyst for this. Uncoincidentally, you see WR A.J. Brown ($7,500) take advantage of one-on-one opportunities.
Barkley is priced as the DK RB1, while Brown is priced as the DK WR5 — checks out!
Here are the notable pass catchers in this matchup:
WR DeVonta Smith ($5,700) and TE Dallas Goedert ($3,900) are near or eclipse Brown in target rate vs zone coverage:
GB ranks bottom-10 among defenses in schedule-adjusted FPPG to opposing TEs (+1.1) and ranks top-five among defenses to opposing WRs (-3.2).
As for PHI defensively, they rank 4th in schedule-adjusted FPPG allowed to WRs (-3.7). The splits are even more notable.
PHI is the best defense vs opposing WRs lined up out wide (-4.7) and rank 16th vs WRs lined up in the slot (+0.2).
GB WR Christian Watson got hurt in last week’s regular-season finale vs CHI and will need surgery.
WR Jayden Reed ($5,500) led the team with 75 targets during the regular season and ran >75% of his routes from the slot.
WAS @ TB
The Washington Commanders (12-5) hit the road and get set to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) at 8:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Buccaneers are 3-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around 50.5 points.
Like the game we previously covered, WAS/TB is a Week 1 rematch. TB won 37-20 in that contest.
This game will be highly attacked in DFS for obvious reasons. TB finished the regular season 4th (29.5) and WAS finished 5th (28.5). Both offenses are top five in EPA per play and success rate.
Jayden Daniels ($7,500) is priced as the DK QB3, and Baker Mayfield ($6,800) is priced as the DK QB5.
Defensively, WAS ranks 6th in man usage (36.1%). They also blitz at the 3rd-highest rate in the league (33.8%).
Mayfield is an efficient fantasy QB vs man and the most efficient fantasy QB when blitzed this season:
Here are the notable pass catchers in this matchup:
TB WR Mike Evans ($7,900) is undoubtedly the team’s top target, but don’t sleep on rookie WR Jalen McMillan ($5,200). He is targeted the 2nd-most often behind Evans against man, and the gap is far closer than it is vs zone coverage:
McMillan has finished as a top 20 DK WR in each of the last five weeks.
As for defensively, TB deploys zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (79.9%) and single-high at the 6th-highest rate (59.3%).
Daniels is surprisingly human against these looks:
WRs Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,400) and Dyami Brown ($3,400) are the most targeted pass catchers vs zone and single-high looks, respectively, with Terry McLaurin ($6,500) wedged in between still as the team’s primary target:
