2023 Week 14 Top DFS Values

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2023 Week 14 Top DFS Values

NFL DFS is a tough game. But whether you are playing cash games or tournaments, you need to be acutely aware of the slate’s top values.

These are the best plays of the slate once price, matchup, median projection, and a player’s floor and ceiling are factored in.

You’ll want to maximize your exposure to these players in cash games (50/50s, head-to-head contests, etc). And you’ll be mixing these players into your tournament lineups alongside some of our favorite GPP plays – which are discussed in Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

It’s important to note that ownership will not be a factor in this article. These are simply the best values of the slate once all other variables are considered. Plays are listed in descending order of salary, but a full ranking of the slate’s best plays in order can be found in Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown.

QB

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $6,800 (QB6) | FanDuel: $7,900 (QB5)

Fields has played in five games since Week 4 – two of those contests were against Minnesota (9.3 DraftKings FPG), but Fields managed 30.0 DraftKings FPG over his last three games against non-Minnesota teams. That included a 24.2-point performance against Detroit, who has struggled massively against hyper-mobile QBs over the last two seasons…

Fields is my preferred cash QB on FanDuel, and he’s a top-4 QB value on DraftKings with arguably slate-best upside. Don’t forget that Fields and Lamar Jackson are the only QBs with multiple games over 40.0 DraftKings points since 2022.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (VS. SEA)

DraftKings: $6,500 (QB8) | FanDuel: $8,100 (QB3)

Purdy has scored over 23.5 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. By DraftKings FPG, Purdy is the slate’s QB3 (20.7), so for seemingly the 14th consecutive week, he’s one of the most apparent technical values on DraftKings. That makes him the preferred DK cash QB, but he’s far from a must-play in tournaments; all four of Purdy’s best games over the last five weeks came against top-6 pass funnels by PROE allowed. Seattle (-0.8% PROE allowed) has been a run-funnel since Week 7.

Jake Browning, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (VS. IND)

DraftKings: $5,200 (QB18) | FanDuel: $6,500 (QB19)

I don’t trust Browning enough to call him a cash play, but he is a top-3 projected value on both sites. Last week, Browning scored 29.6 DraftKings points – a mark that would have been Joe Burrow’s highest score this season. And maybe this shouldn’t be surprising; Browning can probably get there for fantasy purposes, even if he’s below average, thanks to the elite talent the Bengals have at WR. Plus, the Colts are a top-8 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs, and this game features the 3rd-highest total on the slate (44.0). He’s a strong technical value, but concerns over his floor are justified.

RB

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (VS. SEA)

DraftKings: $9,200 (RB1) | FanDuel: $10,500 (RB1)

McCaffrey has exceeded 20.0 DK fantasy points in 10 games this year – 5 more than any other RB. A bad game for him is anything less than that (which has happened just 16% of the time). A good game from McCaffrey is something along the lines of what we saw from him in Week 4 (51.7 DK fantasy points); the definition of a “had-to-have-it score” in DFS, where it may have been impossible to profit without him on your roster. Among all RBs to play in at least 9 games this year, McCaffrey’s 25.8 DK FPG is +23% more than the next-closest slate-eligible RB (Alvin Kamara), who is only 12% cheaper on DraftKings this week… In short, I’m unsure why McCaffrey isn’t at least 33% owned in DFS tournaments every week. Especially this week in a near-perfect matchup, Seattle is giving up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs over the last 5 weeks (+5.7).

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (VS. TB)

DraftKings: $6,500 (RB11) | FanDuel: $7,100 (RB11)

Robinson earned 64% of backfield XFP when leading and 90% of backfield XFP in the red zone over Atlanta’s last two games. In the first 8 weeks, Robinson only earned 31% of backfield XFP when leading and 38% of red zone XFP. His role is finally well-rounded – we can trust Robinson to stay involved regardless of gamescript. And he should stay involved this week… Since Week 10, Robinson has averaged 16.7 XFP/G and 18.6 FPG. Among all slate-eligible RBs, those numbers would rank 6th- and 4th-best, although he’s only priced as the RB11. The matchup is bottom-10, and Tampa Bay is also a major pass funnel, but I’m not sure that matters a whole lot when we are talking about an incredibly talented RB in the most run-centric offense in football.

Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts (@ CIN)

DraftKings: $5,900 (RB16) | FanDuel: $6,800 (RB14)

In Week 13, Moss managed a 94% snap share (2nd among Week 13 RBs), 51% route share (11th), and 18.4 XFP (10th). Sure, he only finished with 7.7 fantasy points, but 8 opportunities inside the 10 and a 94% snap share is legitimately rare usage – there have only been four instances of a player earning 7 or more opportunities inside the 10 this season. There have been only nine instances of an RB seeing a snap share of 94% or higher. Why wouldn’t we play an underpriced, high-end bell cow in a matchup with a Bengals defense allowing the 2nd-highest YPC (5.0) and the 2nd-most rushing YPG (139.6) this season? He’s the top RB value on both sites, and it isn’t particularly close.

Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RBs, Kansas City Chiefs (VS. BUF)

Isiah Pacheco has been ruled out, leaving CEH and McKinnon to man the league’s 15th-most productive fantasy backfield (21.7 FPG). Since before the season started, we've argued that McKinnon is a potential late-season league winner, as Kansas City reportedly wanted to save him for the final stretch of the regular season and subsequent playoffs. But it’s hard to argue the 31-year-old McKinnon will be unleashed this week, after missing the last two weeks with a groin injury. Thus, Edwards-Helaire profiles as the stronger value of the duo (and a cash play on DraftKings if you need the savings), but both are solid plays, and either player could realistically win you a tournament.

WR

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (VS. DEN)

DraftKings: $8,600 (WR2) | FanDuel: $8,800 (WR2)

Excluding a Week 13 contest against New England that featured 6 total points, Keenan Allen ($8,600) is averaging 15.3 targets per game and 33.6 DraftKings FPG over his last three contests. In short, he’s the entire offense right now. The matchup is pretty brutal – Denver is the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-3.8 FPG). But it’s not nearly bad enough to write off the absurd volume Allen has earned as of late, especially in one of just four main slate games with a total at 44.0 or higher. Allen is the cheapest he’s been since Week 8 on DraftKings, and that’s a discount I plan on taking advantage of.

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts (@ CIN)

DraftKings: $7,300 (WR9) | FanDuel: $8,000 (WR6)

In 8 starts with Gardner Minshew, Pittman is averaging 11.0 targets (~WR2), 18.5 XFP/G (~WR5), and 18.8 FPG (~WR7). Incredibly, Pittman has earned 12 or more targets in five of his seven games with Minshew – and despite this, he’s priced as just the WR10 on DraftKings this week ($7,300)… He gets a tough matchup against Chidobe Awuzie’s shadow coverage but still stands out as one of the best values at the position.

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (VS. HOU)

DraftKings: $5,500 (WR28) | FanDuel: $6,700 (WR22)

Believe it or not, the Jets have been incredibly pass-heavy as of late. They’ve posted a +4.8% PROE since Week 6 (7th-highest over the full season), and rank top-3 in pass rate in almost all situations over that span. Garrett Wilson, meanwhile, has seen at least 12 targets and gained at least 80 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games with Zach Wilson under center. His 21.1 XFP/G over this span ranked 5th among all WRs. Of course, he’s fallen way under expectation – but high-end WR1 volume at a ~WR3 DraftKings price tag can’t be ignored. He’s a top-6 value on both sites.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (VS. BUF)

DraftKings: $5,400 (WR30) | FanDuel: $6,300 (WR29)

Kansas City has been stubborn with Rice’s playing time all season, but things are finally looking up in that arena – Rice has exceeded a 60% route share for the first time this year in Week 12, and then he did it again in Week 13 (67%). Keep in mind that Rice is earning targets at the same rate on a per-route basis as Travis Kelce, CeeDee Lamb, and AJ Brown. The only real obstacle between Rice and fantasy greatness is playing time. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged 16.1 XFP (20th among WRs), 19.6 FPG (15th), and 9.5 targets per game (11th). Rice is a strong usage-based value with plenty of room for his role to grow, making him a top-6 WR value on both sites.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons (VS. TB)

DraftKings: $4,600 (WR34) | FanDuel: $6,400 (WR27)

London has exceeded a 20% target share in 8 of 10 healthy games. That said, it hasn’t really amounted to much on the league’s most run-heavy offense. Still, he’s clearly mispriced as an elite high-floor play against a Buccaneers defense that ranks as a top-5 pass funnel by PROE allowed and is giving up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (+6.0). He’s a top-4 WR value on DraftKings, but merely an above-average value on FanDuel.

TE

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (VS. JAX)

DraftKings: $4,100 (TE10) | FanDuel: $5,500 (TE10)

Njoku has been a usage monster since Deshaun Watson went down in Week 10. Among TEs, Njoku ranks 1st in XFP/G (19.1), 4th in first-read share (25%), and 1st in targets (30, +5 more than the next-closest TE) over his last three games. Over the full season, 19.1 XFP/G is +19% better than the current TE1 by usage (TJ Hockenson). The matchup is slightly below average, but Njoku’s role in this offense is just too good to pass up in cash games on either site, especially with Amari Cooper (concussion) unlikely to play.

Brevin Jordan, TE, Houston Texans (@ NYJ)

DraftKings: $3,100 (TE17) | FanDuel: $5,000 (TE15)

Dalton Schultz is out, so it’s wheels up for Jordan – who managed a 63% route share (3rd-highest on the team) and a 14% target share (2nd-highest) without Schultz last week. CJ Stroud likes Jordan (per sources) and he’s occupying a role that resulted in Schultz being the TE5 by FPG (12.9) from Week 4 to Week 12. And he’s facing a Jets’ defense that is by far the worst-possible schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs but top-8 for opposing TEs. Jordan is right there with Njoku as the top TE value of the week on DraftKings, and it’s a mystery why Jordan isn’t projected to be more popular; if Jordan really is sub-10% in tournaments, he’s an outstanding play.

Jake Tribbey is a recent college graduate and lifelong football fan obsessed with extracting every edge possible from NFL DFS, Best Ball, and player props/futures.