2023 Week 13 DFS Early Look

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2023 Week 13 DFS Early Look

Week 12 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 13 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 13 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 13 DFS.

Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders (VS. MIA)

DraftKings: $6,200 (QB7) | FanDuel: $7,500 (QB8)

Howell has scored over 20.5 DraftKings points in five straight games and has the 4th-most games of 20 or more points (7) of any slate-eligible QB. Washington is throwing the ball at top-8 rates in every conceivable scenario, so Howell – who is on pace to set the NFL record for dropbacks – offers one of the best floors of any QB, especially relative to his DFS price tags.

The matchup with Miami offers the highest total of the slate (50.0), and the Dolphins rank as a top-10 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing passers (+1.5 FPG). It’s tough not to love a QB who has a clear path to 50-plus dropbacks at a mid-range QB1 price tag, especially when that QB also ranks 5th among QBs in total rushing TDs (4).

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions (@ NO)

DraftKings: $6,700 (RB9) | FanDuel: $7,700 (RB10)

David Montgomery has been healthy for three weeks, but Jahmyr Gibbs continues to dominate backfield usage. On Thanksgiving, Gibbs earned a 69% snap share (career-high in a game with Montgomery), 76% route share (10th-best route share for any RB this year), and 70% of backfield usage (18.7 XFP, 7th-best workload by any RB in Week 12).

Those market share numbers are great, but they jump out even more when you consider that Detroit is the 3rd-most productive backfield in fantasy (30.0 FPG). That means 70% of backfield usage for Gibbs should loosely translate to 21.0 FPG, which would make him the RB3 this season.

His Week 13 matchup with New Orleans is a bit below average, and you could argue the spread (DET -4.5) better suits David Montgomery. Regardless, Gibbs recent workload has been too good to ignore, especially at this price.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $6,300 (RB14) | FanDuel: $7,500 (RB11)

White falls into the ever-growing bucket of productive fantasy players that DraftKings refuses to notably price up. He’s only $700 more expensive than his Week 1 DraftKings price, despite leading all Week 12 RBs in snap share (89%), and ranking 5th on XFP (18.0) and 4th in FPG (20.1) among RBs since Week 8. He’s a screaming value relative to his price on both sites, especially on DraftKings.

And the matchup with Carolina looks close to ideal. Tampa Bay is favored by 5.5 points, and the Panthers are the league’s 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs since Week 5 (+3.1 FPG). Expect White to project as a strong value industry-wide in a great spot.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (VS. ARI)

DraftKings: $5,400 (RB21) | FanDuel: $6,500 (RB20)

Warren was the 3rd-highest owned RB in the millionaire maker last week (23%), so why not come back to him this week in a near-perfect spot?

The Arizona defense is the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+4.0 FPG), allowing the 3rd-most rushing YPG (140.1) and the 4th-most yards before contact per attempt (1.7). Per our OL/DL matchups tool, the Steelers tout the 5th-biggest run blocking advantage of the week. Factor in a 5.5-point spread, and this is a great setup for the Pittsburgh backfield.

Sure, Warren is still locked in a ~50/50 committee with Najee Harris. But Warren’s efficiency and big play ability still make him a great way to save salary at RB, especially in a matchup with a horribly inefficient rush defense. Don’t forget, Warren ranks 1st among 54 qualifying RBs in YPC (5.8), missed tackles forced per attempt (0.43), and yards after contact per attempt (4.0). He’s an exciting tournament option if he doesn’t draw much ownership after burning everyone last week.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (@ WAS)

DraftKings: $9,600 (WR1) | FanDuel: $10,000 (WR1)

Hill is averaging 27.5 DraftKings FPG, which is just 0.3 DraftKings FPG away from the greatest fantasy receiving season of all time (2021 Cooper Kupp). Hill has been so good that on a per-route basis, he’s been +23% more efficient than the 2nd-most efficient WR in the NFL (Brandon Aiyuk).

We could tout Hill’s efficiency numbers all day to argue that he’s underpriced this week, even though he’s easily the most expensive WR on both sites. But his matchup makes that argument easy.

The Commanders are the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+11.5 FPG), allowing the most receiving TDs (28), 2nd-most receiving yards (3,330), and the 3rd-most yards after the catch (582). We’ve targeted Hill in almost any matchup this season, so why wouldn’t we click him in the perfect matchup against a defense that’s performed so badly that they fired their coordinator last week?

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (VS. PHI)

DraftKings: $7,200 (WR10) | FanDuel: $8,000 (WR7)

Aiyuk earned just 4 targets in a blowout Week 12 victory, but we can’t forget about him in an NFC Championship rematch against Philadelphia. After all, the Eagles are the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+6.2 FPG) this year.

Aiyuk’s usage hasn’t been elite as of late (9.0 XFP/G since Week 9), but he’s crushed plus matchups – averaging 26.0 DraftKings FPG in his four previous games against top-12 schedule-adjusted defenses for opposing outside WRs. And the Eagles are the league's premier pass funnel (+7.6% PROE allowed), so getting Aiyuk the ball should be an offensive priority for the 49ers. He should be a staple of game stacks this week – and for great reason.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (@ TEN)

DraftKings: $5,100 (WR24) | FanDuel: $6,100 (WR30)

Downs didn’t do much in Week 12, pulling in 5 catches for 43 yards and 9.3 fantasy points. But his underlying usage was incredible – 12 targets (3rd-most on the week) and 20.1 XFP (6th-best workload among WRs).

In his four healthy games with Gardner Minshew, Downs is averaging 8.8 targets per game, 15.8 DraftKings FPG, and 15.9 XFP/G. Among slate-eligible WRs over the full season, those marks rank 10th, 12th, and 10th. Downs is one of the best values at any position on this slate, and the only real hole you can poke in him is that the Tennessee defense has been a top-3 matchup for outside WRs, and merely neutral for opposing slot WRs. Either way, Downs is arguably the most mispriced player on the slate – especially on FanDuel.

Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders (VS. MIA)

DraftKings: $4,100 (WR33) | FanDuel: $6,200 (WR29)

If we exclude the three games Curtis Samuel was either injured or ejected, he’s averaging 13.0 DraftKings FPG (20th among slate-eligible WRs), and 6.4 targets per game (21st). Even more impressive is that in that eight-game sample, Samuel has exceeded 18.0 DraftKings points three times (38% hit rate). Terry McLaurin, who plays in the same offense and costs $1,400 more on DraftKings, has cleared that benchmark in just 8% of his games this year.

So Samuel is arguably the best value among these Washington pass catchers. And this is a great week to take advantage of that. As I highlighted above, Washington is playing in the best offensive environment on the slate (50.0) as a massive underdog (MIA -9.5). We only need to note the Commanders’ league-leading 74% pass rate when trailing by 7 or more points to get an idea of how much they will drop back in this spot. Samuel is far too cheap relative to the target volume he could see this week.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $4,100 (TE8) | FanDuel: $5,600 (TE7)

Since Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury, David Njoku has been the focal point of the Cleveland passing attack. Among TEs since Week 10, he ranks 1st in XFP/G (19.1), 2nd in first-read target share (30%), 1st in targets (32), and 4th in yardage market share (31%).

He’s fallen way under expectation (13.1), but it’s clear the team isn’t comfortable with Dorian Thompson-Robinson attempting throws down the field, and that’s led to league-best usage for Njoku.

The total in this game is a gross 39.5, but Njoku does have a great matchup. The Rams are the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+2.9 FPG), which should make up for the sub-par offensive environment. Any way you slice it, Njoku is an elite volume-based value this week.

Jake Tribbey is a recent college graduate and lifelong football fan obsessed with extracting every edge possible from NFL DFS, Best Ball, and player props/futures.