It’s time to see which teams were the biggest risers and fallers in the NFL futures market following the 2023 NFL Draft. The Fantasy Points staff has already broken down the draft in our Veteran Market Watch, and I previewed this season the 2023 rookie class for fantasy purposes (RBs, WRs, QBs and TEs). The biggest news coming out of the draft actually came in the days before the event with the Aaron Rodgers trade to the Jets becoming official and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens finally agreeing to a long-term contract.
The biggest off-season transactions are mostly behind us, but we could still see players like DeAndre Hopkins, Austin Ekeler, Devin White, Buddha Baker, and Trey Lance get traded before Week 1. Quite a few potential odds-movers remain unsigned, as well, like Frank Clark, Jadeveon Clowney, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalton Risner, Marcus Peters, Leonard Floyd, and Yannick Ngakoue.
Remember to always shop around sportsbooks before you place any NFL futures wagers. Sportsbooks will have wildly different odds and totals based on their liabilities with different futures wagers. You can maximize your chances of winning by looking around first and finding the best odds and prices. See where I think each team sits after the draft in my updated Power Rankings. As always, good luck with your wagers!
POST-DRAFT SEASON WIN TOTALS AND SUPER BOWL LVII ODDS
Teams are ordered by their win total, which is courtesy of DraftKings. Super Bowl LVIII odds are courtesy of FanDuel.
|Team||May 8 Win Total (over)/SB Odds||Late March Win Total (over)/SB Odds|
|Kansas City Chiefs||11.5 (-140)/+600||11.5 (-105)/+650|
|Cincinnati Bengals||11.5 (+100)/+1000||11.5 (-105)/+850|
|San Francisco 49ers||11.5 (+120)/+950||11.5 (+110)/+700|
|Philadelphia Eagles||10.5 (-150)/+850||10.5 (-150)/+750|
|Buffalo Bills||10.5 (-140)/+900||10.5 (-140)/+850|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||10.5 (+125)/+2500||10.5 (+115)/+2800|
|Detroit Lions||9.5 (-150)/+2200||9.5 (-150)/+2500|
|New York Jets||9.5 (-145)/+1400||9.5 (-130)/+1400|
|Dallas Cowboys||9.5 (-130)/+1400||9.5 (-125)/+1400|
|Baltimore Ravens||9.5 (-120)/+1800||8.5 (-150)/+2500|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9.5 (-110)/+2500||9.5 (-125)/+2500|
|Miami Dolphins||9.5 (+100)/+2500||9.5 (+100)/+2500|
|New Orleans Saints||9.5 (+105)/+3500||9.5 (+105)/+3500|
|Cleveland Browns||9.5 (+130)/+2800||9.5 (+115)/+3500|
|Seattle Seahawks||8.5 (-130)/+4000||8.5 (-105)/+7000|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||8.5 (-130)/+6000||8.5 (-120)/+5500|
|Minnesota Vikings||8.5 (-120)/+4000||8.5 (-130)/+4500|
|Denver Broncos||8.5 (-110)/+4500||8.5 (-110)/+2500|
|Atlanta Falcons||8.5 (+110)/+5500||7.5 (+100)/+7500|
|New York Giants||8.5 (+120)/+4500||8.5 (+105)/+4000|
|Chicago Bears||7.5 (-135)/+6000||7.5 (-120)/+5000|
|Carolina Panthers||7.5 (-135)/+6000||7.5 (-120)/+5500|
|New England Patriots||7.5 (-120)/+4500||7.5 (-120)/+6500|
|Tennessee Titans||7.5 (+110)/+7500||7.5 (+105)/+8000|
|Green Bay Packers||7.5 (+120)/+4000||7.5 (+120)/+3500|
|Los Angeles Rams||7.5 (+125)/+6000||7.5 (-120)/+6000|
|Las Vegas Raiders||7.5 (+130)/+5500||7.5 (+120)/+4000|
|Indianapolis Colts||6.5 (-140)/+10000||6.5 (-140)/+15000|
|Washington Commanders||6.5 (-120)/+6000||7.5 (+120)/+6000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||6.5 (+110)/+7500||6.5 (-110)/+6500|
|Houston Texans||6.5 (+110)/+18000||5.5 (-110)/+20000|
|Arizona Cardinals||4.5 (-110)/+18000||5.5 (+110)/+20000|
Kansas City Chiefs — 11.5 wins (-105) to 11.5 (-140); +650 SB odds to +600
The Chiefs have been locked in as the universal Super Bowl favorites since beating the Eagles for the Lombardi Trophy in February. They’ve only stretched out their betting odds lead, with their implied odds moving from 13.3% to 14.3% over the last six weeks. The Chiefs went off as +450 preseason favorites before 2020-21, but they’re unlikely to match those odds in a conference with eight of the 12 teams with +2500 odds or shorter after the draft. Kansas City has the third-toughest schedule based on opponent win totals (per Sharp Football), but money is going toward the over on their 11.5-win total as the Chiefs look to win 12+ games for the sixth straight season under HC Andy Reid.
Baltimore Ravens — 8.5 wins (-110) to 9.5 (-130); +2500 SB odds to +1800
Baltimore’s odds took a dip at most sportsbooks this off-season because of the Lamar Jackson contract situation. Baltimore racked up a 45-16 regular season record for a .737 winning percentage with Jackson in the lineup the last five years, compared to an 8-13 mark (.380) without him in that same span. Lamar and the Baltimore Ravens finally came to terms on a new contract (five years, $185 million guaranteed), which ended his 27-month search for a long-term deal. The Ravens finally threw him a bone by signing Odell Beckham, drafting Zay Flowers, and hiring Todd Monken to call plays, who is an Air Raid guy at heart. Sportsbooks were in a bit of a holding pattern with Lamar’s contract dispute seemingly at a standstill, but the Ravens’ odds shrunk with Jackson in the fold for the foreseeable future.
Seattle Seahawks — 8.5 wins (-105) to 8.5 (-130); +7000 SB odds to +4000
Seattle crushed low preseason expectations in 2022, besting their win total by 3.5 victories with a 9-8 record and reaching the playoffs at +600 odds. The markets were once again doubting the Seahawks early this off-season, and we took advantage by betting them over their 8.5 win total when it was at -105 and to win the NFC West at +550 — they’re down to +225. The Seahawks didn’t have any major losses in free agency, and they significantly improved their defense by landing DT Dre’Mont Jones, LB Bobby Wagner, DT Jarran Reed, and S Julian Love. Seattle then punted on drafting a quarterback for the future and instead selected Day 1 contributors Devon Witherspoon, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Derrick Hall, and Zach Charbonnet in the first 52 picks.
New England Patriots — +6500 SB odds to +4500
New England’s Super Bowl odds have been all over the map this off-season, starting at +5500 in February before falling to +6500 by late March. The Patriots had a strong opening to the draft by stealing Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez and Georgia Tech DL Keion White, but they’ve done little else for their odds to improve over the last six weeks. The last time the Patriots had preseason odds higher than +4000 came back in 2001 when they shocked the Rams in Super Bowl XXVII. The markets are showing Bill Belichick more respect as the season creeps a little closer, but we’ll see if the odds get any shorter in an extremely deep AFC.
Atlanta Falcons — 7.5 wins (+100) to 8.5 (+110); +7500 SB odds to +5500
The Falcons are poised to make a run at a division title in a wide-open NFC South based on their moves on defense. They improved their roster by adding S Jessie Bates, DT David Onyemata, and LB Kaden Elliss early in free agency. Atlanta then signed veteran Calais Campbell to beef up their defensive line and took upside gambles on EDGE Bud Dupree and CB Jeff Okudah to potentially turn around a unit that allowed the 10th-most PPG (22.7) and sixth-most YPG (362.1). You can also argue about the merits of drafting a running back with the eighth overall pick, but Bijan Robinson has the potential to be one of the few backs who could move a point spread in 2023.
Houston Texans — 5.5 wins (-110) to 6.5 (+110); +20000 SB odds to +18000
The Texans had different competing forces on which direction to go with the second overall pick but, in the end, both sides got what they wanted. Cal McNair and his family selected the new franchise quarterback they’ve coveted by drafting C.J. Stroud second overall, while DeMeco Ryans got the centerpiece for his defense by moving up to take Will Anderson third overall. Houston then landed Juice Scruggs and Tank Dell to go with their two blue-chip prospects to finally give the Texans a chance of getting out of the NFL’s basement for the first time since 2019. Houston traded away its first-round pick to move up to select Anderson so it won’t be tanking in the league’s worst division, which is perhaps the biggest reason Houston’s win total has risen.
San Francisco 49ers — 11.5 wins (+110) to 11.5 (+120); SB odds +700 to +950
The 49ers have lost a little momentum this off-season with uncertainty hanging over their quarterback situation heading into training camp. Sam Darnold is currently the healthiest quarterback on their depth chart, with Brock Purdy recovering from throwing elbow surgery and Trey Lance undergoing a pair of surgeries to his right ankle in the last calendar year. San Francisco made a splashy move by signing 30-year-old Javon Hargrave to $40 million guaranteed, but the franchise otherwise saw its roster decline during free agency, and they didn’t pick until 87th overall in a weak draft. I can understand why the 49ers have lost some steam in the betting markets, and it’s why I bet on the Seahawks to win the NFC West at +550 odds in early March.
New York Giants — 8.5 wins (+105) to 8.5 (+120); +4000 SB odds to +4500
Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen quickly worked their magic in one year to get the Giants back to relevancy, but the betting markets believe they still have a lot of work left to become legitimate title contenders. The Giants landed Darren Waller via trade and filled major needs with their first three picks in the draft, but their odds have dipped over the last six weeks. They finished with a 9-4-1 record in one-possession games and a -32 point differential (postseason included) during their run to the Divisional Round. The Giants are also projected to go from the easiest schedule in 2022 to the 14th-toughest slate this season based on preseason win totals.
Denver Broncos — +2500 SB odds to +4500
New HC Sean Payton attacked the trenches in his first free agency period with the Broncos, handing out $113.5 million in guaranteed money to Mike McGlinchey, Ben Powers, and Zach Allen. Sportsbooks dropped Denver’s odds down from +3500 in February to +2500 after their free agency spending, but they’ve lost momentum since then, and Payton used their first pick at the end of the second round on WR Marvin Mims, which was already one of their strongest positions. Denver’s Super Bowl odds are still out of sync, as I have the Broncos power rated as the 12th-best team in a loaded AFC.
Los Angeles Rams — 7.5 wins (-120) to 7.5 (+125)
The Rams are in purgatory with a roster that has good players, but it gets thinner with every passing day since their Super Bowl victory in February 2022. HC Sean McVay and GM Les Snead are also taking it a year at a time with their futures with the franchise. They drafted 14 players overall, but 11 of their picks came on Day 3, and their only selection in the top 75 picks was made on an offensive guard. Los Angeles is holding out hope for one more run with its core group, but it looks unlikely unless Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald have huge bounce-back campaigns. The Rams seemingly could blow everything up by the November trade deadline if they get off to a slow start. They actually own a first-round pick for the first time since they selected Jared Goff first overall in 2016, and they’d love to start a rebuild with Southern California’s own Caleb Williams at quarterback.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 6.5 wins (-110) to 6.5 (+110); SB odds +6500 to +7500
Tampa Bay could go from Super Bowl champions to competing for Caleb Williams and the top overall pick in the span of three seasons. I wrote in late March that the Buccaneers appeared to be a team that wouldn’t mind losing as much as possible in 2023 to enable them to pick near the top of the 2024 draft. Tampa Bay had one of the worst situations at quarterback with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask as the successors to Tom Brady, and they never even seemed to be serious players for any of the bigger-named quarterbacks who were available this off-season. Sportsbooks are starting to agree with me after they then passed on Will Levis with the 19th overall pick. The Buccaneers are tied with the Texans for the second-worst win total despite the fact that they’ll play six games in the terrible NFC South and four more games against the nearly as awful AFC South.
Arizona Cardinals — 5.5 wins (+110) to 4.5 (-110)
I gave out the Cardinals under 5.5 wins at -130 odds a few days before the draft because I thought new GM Monti Ossenfort would punt on the 2023 season during the three-day event. They sort of did what I expected, trading back from both the third and 33rd overall picks to pick up more ammunition for the 2024 draft. However, they were unable to unload their two biggest trade pieces, DeAndre Hopkins or Budda Baker, which means they’ll have to wait until closer to the season or until before the trade deadline to move either player. Arizona’s win total still fell by a full game after the draft, with the Cardinals showing plenty of signs that they’re using 2023 to reset their roster. Kyler Murray is also rehabbing from a torn ACL, and they’ll be in no rush to get him back on the field until he’s clearly 100%.
Brolley’s Bets Value Log
All 15 of our futures bets placed before May have gained line value.
|Arizona Cardinals under 5.5 wins (-130, DraftKings). Placed 4/24||Arizona Cardinals under 4.5 wins (-110, DraftKings).|
|Seattle Seahawks over 8.5 wins (-105, DraftKings). Placed 3/31||Seattle Seahawks over 8.5 wins (-130, DraftKings).|
|Houston Texans over 5.5 wins (-110, DraftKings). Placed 3/31||Houston Texans over 6.5 wins (+110, DraftKings).|
|Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East (+130, DraftKings). Placed 2/16||Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East (+105, DraftKings).|
|Detroit Lions to win the NFC North (+170, DraftKings). Placed 3/3||Detroit Lions to win the NFC North (+110, DraftKings).|
|Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC West (+550, DraftKings). Placed 3/3||Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC West (+225, DraftKings).|
|Detroit Lions to win Super Bowl LVIII (+3000, DraftKings). Placed 3/3||Detroit Lions to win Super Bowl LVIII (+1900, DraftKings).|
|Jalen Hurts (Phi) to win MVP (+1300, DraftKings). Placed 2/16||Jalen Hurts (Phi) to win MVP (+1000, DraftKings).|
|Jordan Love (GB) to win MVP (+6600, PointsBet). Placed 2/16||Jordan Love (GB) to win MVP (+2500, PointsBet).|
|Matthew Stafford (LAR) to win MVP (+6600, BetMGM). Placed 2/16||Matthew Stafford (LAR) to win MVP (+5000, BetMGM).|
|Detroit Lions to win the NFC (+1300, Caesars). Placed 2/13||Detroit Lions to win the NFC (+1000, Caesars).|
|Jacksonville Jaguars to win Super Bowl LVIII (+3300, PointsBet). Placed 2/13||Jacksonville Jaguars to win Super Bowl LVIII (+2000, PointsBet).|
|Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC (+1700, PointsBet). Placed 2/13||Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC (+1300, PointsBet).|
|Baltimore Ravens to win Super Bowl LVIII (+3500, Caesars). Placed 2/13||Baltimore Ravens to win Super Bowl LVIII (+2500, Caesars).|
|Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC (+1700, Caesars). Placed 2/13||Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC (+1300, Caesars).|