The 2023 NFL Draft is officially in the books, which means it’s time to update my NFL Power Rankings since the first edition for the 2023 season was released in late March. I’ve already written about the early Rookie of the Year odds, and I’ll be hitting the changing NFL Futures market and the initial rookie player props with the 2023 season starting to come into view.
My Power Rankings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams, which will be updated every week once the regular season starts. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These rankings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Rankings into account when I make my weekly against-the-spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
Example: My top-rated team, the Kansas City Chiefs (7), would be 10.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Arizona Cardinals (-3.5). Using a two-point adjustment for home-field advantage (HFA average was 1.8 points in 2022), the Chiefs would be 12.5-point favorites over the Cardinals at home and 8.5-point favorites over the Cardinals on the road.
2023 NFL Power Rankings: Post Draft
|Rank||Team||Power Ranking||Current Super Bowl Odds||Ranking Adjustment since 3/31||2022 Record (ATS)|
|1.||Kansas City Chiefs||7||+600||—||14-3 (5-11-1)|
|2.||Philadelphia Eagles||7||+850||+1||14-3 (8-9)|
|3.||Cincinnati Bengals||6.5||+1000||—||12-4 (12-3-1)|
|4.||Buffalo Bills||6||+850||—||13-3 (8-7-1)|
|5.||San Francisco 49ers||5.5||+950||—||13-4 (11-6)|
|6.||Dallas Cowboys||5||+1400||—||12-5 (9-7-1)|
|7.||Detroit Lions||4.5||+2200||+.5||9-8 (12-5)|
|8.||Los Angeles Chargers||4.5||+2500||—||10-7 (11-5-1)|
|9.||Baltimore Ravens||4||+1800||+1.5||10-7 (6-9-2)|
|10.||New York Jets||4||+1400||—||7-10 (8-9)|
|11.||Jacksonville Jaguars||3.5||+2500||-.5||9-8 (8-8-1)|
|12.||Miami Dolphins||3.5||+2500||—||9-8 (9-8)|
|13.||Seattle Seahawks||3.5||+4000||+.5||9-8 (7-10)|
|14.||Pittsburgh Steelers||2.5||+6000||+.5||9-8 (10-6-1)|
|15.||Cleveland Browns||2||+2800||—||7-10 (8-9)|
|16.||New York Giants||1.5||+4500||—||9-7-1 (13-4)|
|17.||New England Patriots||1.5||+4500||—||8-9 (7-9-1)|
|18.||Green Bay Packers||1||+4000||—||8-9 (8-9)|
|19.||Minnesota Vikings||1||+4000||—||13-4 (7-9-1)|
|20.||New Orleans Saints||.5||+3500||—||7-10 (7-10)|
|21.||Denver Broncos||0||+4500||—||5-12 (7-10)|
|22.||Carolina Panthers||-.5||+6000||+.5||7-10 (9-8)|
|23.||Los Angeles Rams||-.5||+6000||-.5||5-12 (7-9-1)|
|24.||Las Vegas Raiders||-.5||+5500||—||6-11 (8-9)|
|25.||Chicago Bears||-1||+6000||—||3-14 (5-11-1)|
|26.||Atlanta Falcons||-1||+5500||+1||7-10 (9-8)|
|27.||Washington Commanders||-1.5||+6000||—||8-8-1 (8-8-1)|
|28.||Tennessee Titans||-1.5||+7500||—||7-10 (9-6-2)|
|29.||Houston Texans||-1.5||+18000||+1||3-13-1 (8-8-1)|
|30.||Indianapolis Colts||-2||+10000||+.5||4-12-1 (6-11)|
|31.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-3||+7500||—||8-9 (4-12-1)|
|32.||Arizona Cardinals||-3.5||+18000||—||4-13 (8-9)|
Note: I projected Aaron Rodgers to the Jets in my last Power Rankings on March 31.
Philadelphia Eagles (6 to 7) — It’s Howie Roseman’s world and we’re all just living in it. He snagged the best player in the draft, Jalen Carter, with the ninth overall pick, which also filled a hole for them left behind by Javon Hargrave. He then caught a falling Nolan Smith with the second-to-last pick in the first round, who was high on Philly’s board in the top half of the round. Philadelphia cleaned up with its next three picks (Tyler Steen, Sydney Brown, and Kelee Ringo) before taking Philly native D’Andre Swift off of Detroit’s hands for next to nothing. Oh yeah, Roseman also inked Jalen Hurts to a new long-term contract in April before Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow landed their new deals, which will end up saving the Eagles big time in the long run. Super Bowl teams typically have nowhere to go but down with so many pivotal players having career years and cashing in, but the Eagles somehow may have improved off of their Super Bowl run.
Detroit Lions (4 to 4.5) — I didn’t necessarily love Detroit’s draft from a long-term perspective, but I had no choice but to give them a boost in my rankings after they landed four players in the first two rounds who will make immediate contributions in 2023. The Lions would have earned an even bigger boost, but Jameson Williams’ six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy is a crusher for this receiving corps that’s currently sporting Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond behind Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Baltimore Ravens (2.5 to 4) — I placed a bet on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl at +3500 odds in February, which meant I was fairly confident Lamar Jackson would play for the Ravens in 2023. I still had to bake in the chance that he wouldn’t play this season in my last Power Rankings, but they’re now back into the top 10 after inking Lamar to a five-year deal to remain in Baltimore. GM Eric DeCosta made his QB happy by adding veteran Odell Beckham and rookie Zay Flowers to his receiving corps.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2 to 2.5) — I tend to grade my favorite team on a negative curve, but they absolutely crushed the draft. They traded up to No. 14 to select Broderick Jones to address their offensive tackle need before landing CB Joey Porter Jr. at the start of the second round, whom they were originally interested in at No. 17. They even traded for Allen Robinson, who could be cooked but gives them insurance in the slot if Calvin Austin isn’t ready to contribute. He gives Kenny Pickett a huge body to throw to at the goal line after he finished with a league-low 1.8% TD rate.
Carolina Panthers (-1 to -.5) — The Panthers slid down by a half point in my last Power Rankings for trading away D.J. Moore, but they slid back up by landing Bryce Young with the top overall pick. Rookie quarterbacks don’t move the needle much, but Young could be one of those exceptions, and he’s certainly an upgrade over the likes of Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold.
Atlanta Falcons (-2 to -1) — The Falcons made moves to improve their defense since my last Power Rankings. They signed veteran Calais Campbell to beef up their defensive line and took upside gambles on Bug Dupree and Jeff Okudah to potentially turn around a unit that allowed the 10th-most PPG (22.7) and sixth-most YPG (362.1). You can also argue about the merits of drafting a running back with the eighth overall pick, but Bijan Robinson has the potential to be one of the few backs who could move a point spread in 2023.
Houston Texans (-2.5 to -1.5) — The Texans had different competing forces on which direction to go with the second overall pick but, in the end, both sides got what they wanted. Cal McNair and his family selected the new franchise quarterback they’ve coveted by selecting C.J. Stroud second overall, while DeMeco Ryans got the centerpiece for his defense by moving up to take Will Anderson third overall. Houston then landed Juice Scruggs and Tank Dell to go with their two blue-chip prospects to finally give the Texans a chance of getting out of the NFL’s basement for the first time since 2019.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5 to 2) — Chris Ballard and the Colts' front office were certainly happy when it was the Texans who traded up to No. 3, which meant they had landed their new quarterback Anthony Richardson a pick later. Richardson is going to take his lumps as a rookie after starting just 13 games at Florida, but he should be a small upgrade over Matt Ryan, who was well past his prime at 37 years, and the rest of Indy’s QB room last season. The Colts also nailed their picks in the second through fourth rounds, selecting Julius Brents, Josh Downs, Blake Freeland, and Adetomiwa Adebawore who could all make significant impacts in 2023.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4 to 3.5) — The Jaguars will get Calvin Ridley on the field this season after the NFL reinstated him after his season-long suspension in 2022, but the Jaguars had an otherwise uneventful off-season. They lost Jawaan Taylor to the Chiefs in free agency before Cam Robinson was suspended for PED use just before, which left Jacksonville to reach for Anton Harrison in the late first round. Jacksonville then made curious picks of Brenton Strange and Tank Bigsby on Day 2, which led to a lackluster draft overall despite making 13 selections. The funny thing is they left the draft set up for success in 2023 with the rest of the division planning for the future by drafting quarterbacks.
Los Angeles Rams (0 to -.5) — The Rams are in purgatory with a roster that has good players, but it gets thinner with every passing day since their Super Bowl victory in February 2022. HC Sean McVay and GM Les Snead are also taking it a year at a time with their futures with the franchise. They drafted 14 players overall but 11 of their picks came on Day 3 and the only selection they made in the top 75 picks was made on an offensive guard. Los Angeles is holding out hope for one more run with its core group but it looks unlikely unless Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald have huge bounce-back campaigns.