I’m riding high after finishing with a 64.3% ATS winning percentage for +17.24 units, and it’s time to reinvest some of those profits into the 2023 futures market. The initial odds for the winner of Super Bowl LVIII were released over the last couple of weeks since Conference Championship Week. It seems like a good time to dive into the initial odds to see if there are any value bets to make now that the NFL has crowned the Kansas City Chiefs as the Super Bowl LVI champions for the 2022 season.
Oddsmakers have pegged those Chiefs and Buffalo Bills as the favorites to win this year’s Super Bowl title at +600 and +850, respectively. The Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers are the co-favorites to come out of the NFC to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at +900. The Cincinnati Bengals at +900 are the last of the five teams with odds under 10/1 to win the 2023 title. On the other end of the spectrum, the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals face the longest odds to win the Super Bowl at +28000.
Super Bowl LVIII will be played on Feb. 11, 2024, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
EARLY SUPER BOWL LVIII ODDS
The odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of Feb. 13.
|Team||Super Bowl LVII Odds||2022 Record (ATS)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+600||14-3 (5-11-1)|
|Buffalo Bills||+850||13-3 (8-7-1)|
|Philadelphia Eagles||+900||14-3 (8-9)|
|Cincinnati Bengals||+900||12-4 (12-3-1)|
|San Francisco 49ers||+900||13-4 (11-6)|
|Dallas Cowboys||+1500||12-5 (9-7-1)|
|Baltimore Ravens||+1600||10-7 (6-9-2)|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2000||10-7 (11-5-1)|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||+2500||9-8 (8-8-1)|
|Detroit Lions||+2500||9-8 (12-5)|
|New York Jets||+2500||7-10 (8-9)|
|Los Angeles Rams||+3000||5-12 (7-9-1)|
|Miami Dolphins||+3000||9-8 (9-8)|
|Green Bay Packers||+3100||8-9 (8-9)|
|Cleveland Browns||+3500||7-10 (8-9)|
|Denver Broncos||+3500||5-12 (7-10)|
|New Orleans Saints||+3500||7-10 (7-10)|
|Minnesota Vikings||+4000||13-4 (7-9-1)|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+4000||6-11 (8-9)|
|New York Giants||+4000||9-7-1 (13-4)|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||+5000||9-8 (10-6-1)|
|Carolina Panthers||+5500||7-10 (9-8)|
|New England Patriots||+5500||8-9 (7-9-1)|
|Washington Commanders||+6000||8-8-1 (8-8-1)|
|Seattle Seahawks||+6000||9-8 (7-10)|
|Chicago Bears||+6500||3-14 (5-11-1)|
|Tennessee Titans||+7000||7-10 (9-6-2)|
|Atlanta Falcons||+7500||7-10 (9-8)|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+7500||8-9 (4-12-1)|
|Indianapolis Colts||+25000||4-12-1 (6-11)|
|Arizona Cardinals||+28000||4-13 (8-9)|
|Houston Texans||+28000||3-13-1 (8-8-1)|
Super Bowl Winners and Runners-Up From the Last Decade
|Year||Super Bowl Champ||Odds||Super Bowl Runner-Up||Odds|
|2022||Kansas City Chiefs||+1000 (3rd)||Philadelphia Eagles||+2500 (13th)|
|2021||Los Angeles Rams||+1200 (3rd)||Cincinnati Bengals||+15000 (28th)|
|2020||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1000 (3rd)||Kansas City Chiefs||+450 (1st)|
|2019||Kansas City Chiefs||+600 (2nd)||San Francisco 49ers||+4000 (16th)|
|2018||New England Patriots||+600 (1st)||Los Angeles Rams||+1000 (2nd)|
|2017||Philadelphia Eagles||+4000 (13th)||New England Patriots||+275 (1st)|
|2016||New England Patriots||+600 (1st)||Atlanta Falcons||+8000 (23rd)|
|2015||Denver Broncos||+900 (6th)||Carolina Panthers||+4000 (21st)|
|2014||New England Patriots||+650 (3rd)||Seattle Seahawks||+450 (1st)|
|2013||Seattle Seahawks||+800 (3rd)||Denver Broncos||+600 (1st)|
A Few Notes Before We Start
I’m typically not looking at the top of the board at this time of the year unless there is an egregious value since more bad outcomes (departures, injuries) than good outcomes can happen to the favorites over the next seven months before the season starts. I’m focusing my attention further down the board to see if I can pick up some value before a team’s odds get shorter after free agency and the draft.
It’s notable that the eventual Super Bowl winner has come from the top-three favorites in preseason odds in a whopping eight of the last 10 seasons. The 2015 Denver Broncos had the sixth-shortest odds but were still priced at +900 to win Super Bowl 50, which makes the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles the one true long shot to win the Lombardi Trophy with the 13th-shortest odds. The Eagles were the only team with longer than +1200 odds to win it all in the last decade. With that said, we’ve seen five teams priced at +2500 odds or longer get to the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl in the last decade, including the Eagles last season.
Detroit Lions (+3000, DraftKings)
The Lions have some work ahead of them to clean up a defense that allowed the most YPG (392.3) and fifth-most PPG (25.1). The good news is it’s much easier to turn around a bad defense than it is to turn around a bad offense, especially when a team has four picks inside the top 60 of the draft and a top-10 cap position. Detroit’s offense finished as a top-five unit in PPG (26.7) and YPG (380.0) and the unit could be even better with a full year from Jameson Williams next to stud Amon-Ra St. Brown. Many draft experts considered Williams the top WR prospect in last year’s class if he wasn’t recovering from a torn ACL, and he showed his explosiveness with a pair of 40+ yard plays on his only two touches as a rookie — he played just 78 snaps overall. HC Dan Campbell is the perfect blend of football tough guy and analytically savvy, and he’s quickly proven to be a winner with the league’s best ATS record of 23-11 (.677) in his first two seasons.
The Lions are coming off their first winning record since 2017 and they did it with the league’s youngest roster. Detroit didn’t win the NFC North but it boasted the best division record at 5-1, which included a victory over the Packers to eliminate their rivals from playoff contention in the final game of the NFL’s regular season. The NFC North is there for the taking in the weaker of the two conferences, and it could get a little weaker if the Packers move on from four-time MVP, Aaron Rodgers, this off-season. The Vikings are the defending division champs but are primed for major regression after finishing with a ridiculous 11-0 record in one-possession games with an aging roster in 2022. The Lions have some moderately difficult extra games this season (@Bal, @Dal, Sea), but they’ll benefit from matchups against the NFC South and the AFC West (to a lesser extent) for divisional crossover games. Detroit has a great chance to at least win a home date in the Wild Card Round with an outside shot at a top-two seed based on their roster and schedule.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3300, PointsBet)
The Jaguars took a major leap in 2022 with competent coaching from Doug Pederson and massive growth from Trevor Lawrence in his second season. They experienced a six-win improvement from 2021 despite starting the season with six one-possession losses through the first eight weeks of the season. The Jags finished the regular season as my eight-best team and they could get a blue-chip player added to Lawrence’s receiving corps. Calvin Ridley was on the cusp of becoming one of the league’s best WRs before he left the Falcons for mental health issues and a subsequent suspension for gambling. Jacksonville needs to beef up its offensive line and secondary, and they also need to improve their pass rush but there’s some hope they could get big gains internally in that department. Travon Walker had a disappointing rookie campaign after being selected first overall. Still, he certainly has the pedigree to make a second-year leap to give them another pass-rushing threat across from Josh Allen.
Jacksonville has a tough hill to climb in the AFC with the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals all in the way, but they have a distinct advantage over the rest of the conference playing in the horrible AFC South. They’ll have six games against the likes of Texans (worst Super Bowl odds), Colts (3rd-worst odds), and Titans (5th-worst odds) to give them an outside chance at a coveted top-two seed. They have three difficult extra games (@Buf, KC, SF) and a tougher intraconference draw against the AFC North, but they’ll get friendly interconference matchups against NFC South to round out their schedule. I’m buying in early on the Jaguars since they have an ascending roster in a weak division
Baltimore Ravens (+3500, Caesars)
I didn’t expect to be on the Ravens when I started this exercise but I couldn’t pass up getting one of the league’s better rosters at +3500 odds — they’re as short as +1600 at FanDuel. They finished seventh in overall DVOA last season despite starting Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown in the final five games. Baltimore also had the AFC runner-up Bengals on the ropes in the Wild Card Round before Huntley fumbled away their chance at a victory at the goal line early in the fourth quarter. Lamar Jackson’s contract situation is going to dominate Baltimore’s off-season, but he’ll likely be in the fold for 2023 either on the franchise tag or on a new contract. There’s an outside chance they tag and trade him for a package of picks and players, which they could turn into another quarterback.
The Ravens may have a deep, talented roster, but they must improve their league-worst WR corps, which managed a league-worst 1517 receiving yards. Baltimore will require more talent at WR but it also needed some fresh ideas and concepts at offensive coordinator after Greg Roman’s offense had become stale and predictable. The AFC North won’t be easy to navigate but the Ravens do get the weak AFC South and a beatable NFC West in addition to extra games against the Lions, Dolphins, and Chargers. Baltimore has been good for double-digit wins in four of five seasons with Lamar and HC John Harbaugh. Now seems like a great time to buy low on the Ravens as this is the lowest Baltimore’s Super Bowl odds have been since the start of the 2019 season.
Detroit Lions (Det) to win Super Bowl LVIII (+3000, DraftKings). Risk .5 units to win 15 units.
Detroit Lions (Det) to win the NFC (+1300, Caesars). Risk .5 units to win 6.5 units.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jax) to win Super Bowl LVIII (+3300, PointsBet). Risk .5 units to win 16.5 units.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jax) to win the AFC (+1700, PointsBet). Risk .5 units to win 8.5 units.
Baltimore Ravens (Bal) to win Super Bowl LVIII (+3500, Caesars). Risk .5 units to win 17.5 units
Baltimore Ravens (Bal) to win the AFC (+1700, Caesars). Risk .5 units to win 8.5 units.