If you’re anything like me, you’ve been itching for some betting opportunities on NFL events since Super Bowl LVII concluded with the Chiefs defeating the Eagles two months ago. I’ve already broken down Super Bowl odds and win totals for the upcoming season, and I’ll continue to add to my Best Bets throughout the summer. The 2023 NFL Draft is quickly approaching on April 27-29, which is our one chance to bet on an actual NFL event before preseason action gets underway in August.
Unfortunately, most states, including my home state of Pennsylvania, don’t allow betting on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. I may be making a trip to states like New Jersey or West Virginia, which allow wagers on NFL Draft props. Hopefully, you live in or near one of the states that are allowed to offer betting lines on this year’s draft, or you have access to an off-shore account.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using lines that are being offered in New Jersey and at off-shore sportsbooks for the purposes of this article. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. There’s a lot more volatility in odds between sportsbooks with an event like the NFL Draft than you’ll see on game lines or player props during the season.
I plan on updating these NFL Draft Prop articles and my Best Bets multiple times before the end of April, so check back throughout the month.
Note: We’re thrilled to offer rookie profiles from Brett Whitefield from our 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Guide. I’ve included a small piece of his analysis for each player listed below. Be sure to sign up for a FREE account to get Brett’s complete analysis for over 100+ players.
Article Updates Since Initial Publication on April 12
Nolan Smith — Player Profile and “Draft Prop to consider” added on April 20
Broderick Jones — Player Profile and “Draft Prop to Consider” added on April 19.
Tyree Wilson — Player Profile and “Draft Prop to Consider” added on April 19.
Devon Witherspoon — “Draft Prop to Consider” updated on April 19.
Deonte Banks — Player Profile and “Draft Prop to Consider” added on April 19.
Offensive Linemen
Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Ninth overall (Chicago Bears), OL1
Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Seventh overall (Las Vegas Raiders), OL1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 14th overall (New England Patriots), OL3
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Ninth overall (Chicago Bears), OL1
Consensus Mock Drafts
NFL Mock Draft Database: 11th overall, Tennessee Titans (20%)
Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 11.4 (OL2)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
From a skill set/technical standpoint, Skoronski is proficient in just about every way imaginable. He easily has the cleanest profile in the class. The weaknesses in his game are few and far between. For him, his development will be about fine-tuning those already present skills and adding more and more functional strength to his game. He is my #1 ranked offensive tackle in the class and is worthy of a top-10 pick.
Draft Props to Consider
First Offensive Lineman Drafted: Peter Skoronski (+115, BetOnline.ag, placed April 11) — Paris Johnson and Skoronski have been in a battle to be the first offensive lineman selected since this winter. Johnson, an Ohio State prospect, owned a significant advantage early in the pre-draft process and he’s back out to a significant lead after Skoronski picked up steam in late March. Skoronski is the safest offensive line prospect in this year’s class, with no real glaring weaknesses from his tape at Northwestern. The only concern is his 4th-percentile arm length of 32¼”, which falls well short of the 34+” arm length that teams typically want from their offensive tackles. His Northwestern teammate Rashawn Slater went 13th overall to the Chargers and earned second-team All-Pro honors as a rookie despite 33” arms, which gives him hope in his transition to the league. The worst-case scenario is that Skoronski’s future could be at guard if he struggles to widen the edge at tackle with his limited arm length. Johnson isn’t nearly as technically refined as Skoronski, but he has prototypical offensive tackle size (6’6”, 313 pounds), and there are no such worries with his 96th-percentile arm length of 36⅛”, which is why he’s been the odds-on favorite for much of the pre-draft process. Top national analysts Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay, and Dane Brugler each have Skoronski ahead of Johnson on their big boards despite his arm-length concerns.
Broderick Jones, Georgia
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 17th overall (Pittsburgh Steelers), OL3
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 13th overall (New York Jets), OL2
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 14th overall (New England Patriots), OL2
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 17th overall (Pittsburgh Steelers), OL3
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: 14th overall, New England Patriots (12%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 15.3 (OL3)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Jones profiles as a near-elite tackle prospect who could develop into a Pro-Bowl-caliber player. The physical traits are elite, but the play on the field, specifically the lack of consistency, keeps him out of elite territory for me. Officially he scores as a high 1st-round pick for me, worthy of a top-15 selection.
Draft Props to Consider
Broderick Jones over 13.5 draft position (+100, SugarHouse, placed April 19) — Jones arrived at Georgia in 2020 as a five-star recruit, and he eventually became a full-time starter last season and earned first-team All-SEC honors. He checked in at 6’5”, 311 pounds at the Combine, and ran an impressive 4.97-second 40-yard dash (93rd percentile). Jones has widely been considered the third-best offensive line prospect behind Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski and Ohio State’s Paris Johnson in this year’s class, but Tennessee’s Darnell Wright has been gaining heavy momentum in the pre-draft process. Wright has seen his expected draft position rise from a fringe first-round player in early February to 17.8 as of late-April (per Grinding the Mocks). Meanwhile, Jones has seen his expected draft position fall a bit from the 13th pick range to 15.3 at the end of late April. The Jets were seemingly the pivot point for Jones at No. 13 overall, but they’ve since traded down to No. 15 to help this wager. The draft could see four QBs and Bijan Robinson go inside the first 12 picks and EDGE defenders Nolan Smith and Lukas Van Ness are picking up steam in the final weeks to potentially hold off an offensive tackle run until the middle of the first round.
Defense
Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Seventh overall (Las Vegas Raiders), EDGE2
Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Third overall (Arizona Cardinals), EDGE1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Fifth overall (Seattle Seahawks), EDGE2
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Sixth overall (Detroit Lions), EDGE2
Consensus Mock Drafts
NFL Mock Draft Database: Eighth overall but no consensus pick
Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 5.9 (EDGE2)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Wilson offers teams a huge, powerful force on the EDGE with some inside pass-rush potential. While he needs to clean up his technique in a variety of areas, the raw power Wilson possesses is very attractive. He could find a home on most teams as a closed-side EDGE defender responsible for tacking on tight end/tackle combos to set the edge. He scores as a top-10 player for me and should help any team in need of pass-rush help.
Draft Props to Consider
First Defensive Player Drafted: Tyree Wilson (+400, PointsBet, placed April 19): — Will Anderson opened as the second favorite to be the first defensive player drafted, but he became the heavy favorite after off-the-field questions started piling up for Jalen Carter. Anderson’s expected draft position has improved to 3.7 in recent weeks with the Texans potentially looking at a position other than quarterback with the second overall pick. Despite his expected draft position improving, Anderson’s odds have shortened in recent weeks with Wilson picking up steam since Lance Zierlein mocked the Texas Tech EDGE defender to the Texans in early April. Wilson has also been linked to the Cardinals, who pick third overall, most notably in Peter Schrager’s first mock draft. Anderson looks to be the safest defensive prospect out of the entire draft class, which is why he’s the best bet to be selected after the initial quarterback(s) go off the board. However, it seems like Anderson is being viewed by evaluators as this year’s version of Aidan Hutchinson as a player who is considered more of a finished product coming into the league. Wilson is being viewed as this year’s version of Travon Walker, gaining momentum throughout the pre-draft process whose best football could be ahead of him. The profile of an ascending player could be more appealing to teams like the Texans and Cardinals, who are looking more toward the 2024-25 seasons than the upcoming campaign.
Jalen Carter, Georgia
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Fifth overall (Seattle Seahawks), DT1
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Sixth overall (Detroit Lions), DT1
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Ninth overall (Chicago Bears), DT1
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Fifth overall (Seattle Seahawks), DT1
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: Fifth overall, Seattle Seahawks (50%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 5.6 (DT1)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Carter is the number 1 player on my board and is worthy of being drafted anywhere in the top-5. Outside of the troubling off-the-field issues, which can’t be ignored, he has no clear deficiencies. This is a special player who should be a plus player from his first snap in the NFL, both defending the run and getting after the quarterback.
Draft Props to Consider
Team to Draft Jalen Carter: Seattle Seahawks (+500, FanDuel, placed April 12) — Carter opened this winter as the favorite to be the first defensive player drafted. He’s fallen behind Will Anderson since then after being charged with reckless driving and racing in connection with a crash that killed a Georgia teammate and a staff member just days after their national championship victory. Many still consider Carter to be the best prospect in this year’s entire draft class based purely on his performance at Georgia. His impressive tape is also why Carter’s expected draft position is on a significant rise to 5.6 in the last few weeks after initially plummeting when news of his arrest first came out at the combine (per Griding the Mocks). The Seahawks seem like the earliest spot where Carter will go off the board, and they certainly need to beef up their front seven after getting pummeled for the third-most rushing YPG last season. Drafting Carter would create a formidable tackle duo with recently signed Dre’Mont Jones.
The Seahawks are the most likely landing spot for Carter with 35% of mock drafts projecting Carter to the Pacific Northwest (per NFL Mock Draft Database). His +500 odds imply just a 16.7% chance the Seahawks select him so this seems like a no-brainer wager at his current odds. The Seahawks could be interested in either Antony Richardson or Will Levis if they fall to the fifth overall pick. They’re in a position to gamble on one of the young QBs with four picks in the first two rounds, but those extra selections also mean they could roll the dice on potentially the best player in the draft despite Carter’s character concerns. He could be an immediate difference maker for a team that has a chance to contend in a division and a conference that are both up for grabs. It’s also not like Pete Carroll is getting any younger at 72 years old this season. Carter and the Seahawks make too much sense together to pass up on this big plus price.
Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Sixth overall (Detroit Lions), CB1
Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 14th overall (New England Patriots), CB2
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (March 7): Seventh overall (Las Vegas Raiders), CB2
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Seventh overall (Las Vegas Raiders), CB1
Consensus Mock Drafts
NFL Mock Draft Database: Sixth overall, Detroit Lions (55%)
Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 7.9 (CB1)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Witherspoon is a fascinating study in this Draft class as he doesn’t quite have the elite physical traits you look for in a shut-down corner, at least to the level of other prospects in the class, but to me, is the best football player at the position. He has man/zone appeal and also outside/slot versatility. With his instincts and ability to make plays on the ball, I see him as a very high-floor player. He scores as a near-elite prospect for me and ranks inside my top 10 overall.
Draft Props to Consider
First Cornerback Drafted: Devon Witherspoon (-175, FanDuel) — This market has become much tighter at the top between Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez in recent weeks, and sportsbooks are offering Witherspoon as the favorite. Witherspoon leap-frogged Gonzalez at NFL Mock Draft Database as the sixth overall pick to the Lions, one spot ahead of Gonzalez to the Raiders, and Witherspoon is now ahead of Gonzalez in expected draft position (7.9 to 9.8) over at Grinding the Mocks. Witherspoon’s biggest knock is his undersized frame at just 180 pounds, but he plays like a much bigger man with a “physicality that will make you blush” per our Brett Whitefield. That should make him a perfect fit for a coach like Dan Campbell, and the Lions could be back in the market for a top-flight CB after trading Jeff Okudah. Detroit signed free-agent CBs Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Emmanuel Moseley to just one-year deals, and they need a long-term solution next to the recently signed Cam Sutton. The Raiders also have a major need at cornerback one spot after the Lions and have been linked to Witherspoon more than Gonzalez. Todd McShay and Daniel Jeremiah have preferred Witherspoon over Gonzalez in the pre-draft process, which is common among national experts.
Nolan Smith, Georgia
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 13th overall (New York Jets), EDGE4
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Eighth overall (Atlanta Falcons), EDGE3
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Eighth overall (Atlanta Falcons), EDGE3
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 12th overall (Houston Texans), EDGE4
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: 10th overall, Philadelphia Eagles (16%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 15.2 (EDGE3)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Smith is an uber athletic pass-rush specialist who needs significant development to achieve his potential. On one hand, it is easy to fall in love with the ceiling, and on the other, the developmental curve is mountainous. Smith is sort of like a collection of really fascinating car parts, and a really good coach might be able to build a Ferrari out of them, but if things go poorly, you might be left with a Prius.
Draft Props to Consider
To be a Top 10 Pick: Nolan Smith (+175, FanDuel, placed April 20) — I found it notable that both Peter Schrager and Dane Brugler projected Smith to the hometown Falcons at eighth overall in their most recent mocks. Schrager wrote that “NFL teams have been high on the former five-star recruit for the last few years.” He’s been rising quickly since he bottomed out as an early second-round pick before the combine. Smith checked in on the tiny side for an EDGE defender at 6’2”, 238 pounds, but he registered a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, a 41.5” vertical jump, and a 10’8” broad jump. He’s up to an expected draft position of 15.2 before the draft (per Grinding the Mocks) after his impressive performance in Indy. The Falcons could go a number of different positions with the eighth overall pick, but EDGE is their biggest defensive need after landing Calais Campbell to beef up the interior of their D-line. The Eagles have also been linked to Smith with the 10th overall pick and our draft expert Brett Whitefield believes he’s cut out of the same cloth as Haason Reddick, who led the Eagles with 16 sacks last season. GM Howie Roseman certainly showed an affinity for taking Bulldogs last year, selecting Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean in the first three rounds.
Deonte Banks, Maryland
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 24th overall (Jacksonville Jaguars), DB4
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 19th overall (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), DB4
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 23rd overall (Minnesota Vikings), DB4
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 28th overall (Cincinnati Bengals), DB5
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: 17th overall, Pittsburgh Steelers (11%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 22.1 (DB4)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Banks is a raw prospect with ridiculous physical traits. He does have a late 1st round grade from me, but he is not in the same tier as Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez, or Joey Porter Jr. because of the holes in his technique. With that said, his ceiling is tremendously high, and I am more than willing to bet on the traits.
Draft Props to Consider
Total Number of Defensive Backs Drafted in Round 1: Over 5.5 (-114, FanDuel, placed April 19) — Banks has been rising up draft boards since he destroyed the combine with an 11’4” broad jump, a 42” vertical jump, and a 4.35-second 40-yard dash. He went from being a second-round prospect to a first-round lock after his big weekend in Indianapolis with an expected draft position of 22.1, ranking behind just Christian Gonzalez (9.8), Devon Witherspoon (7.9), and Joey Porter Jr. (17.1). Grinding the Mocks currently has six defensive backs inside the top 28 picks with Brian Branch (24.9) and Emmanuel Forbes (28.3) also in the mix in the first round. SEC Cornerbacks Kelee Ringo (40.6) and Cam Smith (42.7) additionally have the potential to sneak into the first round. NFL Mock Draft Database also has six defensive backs inside the top 31 on their consensus big board with Ringo (38) and Smith (36) eachknocking on the door of the first round. This year’s defensive back class is a fairly strong one in an overall weak draft, and it’s notable that the position has had the highest rate of fifth-year option pickups from 2011-19 at 68% (per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell).
Brolley’s Best Bets
To be a Top 10 Pick: Nolan Smith (+175, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win 1.75 units. Placed on April 20
First Defensive Player Drafted: Tyree Wilson (+400, PointsBet). Risk one unit to win four units. Placed on April 19.
Total Number of Defensive Backs Drafted in Round 1: Over 5.5 (-114, FanDuel). Risk 1.14 units to win one unit. Placed on April 19.
Broderick Jones over 13.5 draft position (+100, SugarHouse). Risk one unit to win one unit. Placed on April 19.
Team to Draft Jalen Carter: Seattle Seahawks (+500, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win five units. Placed on April 12.
First Offensive Lineman Drafted: Peter Skoronski (+115, BetOnline.ag). Risk one unit to win 1.15 units. Placed on April 11.
