A lot has happened since the initial Super Bowl LVIII odds dropped in early February. It’s time to check back in to see which NFL teams saw their Super Bowl odds rise and which teams saw their odds fall the most over the last month or so.
Most of the top unrestricted free agents have found homes after a flurry of activity since the official start of the 2023 season in mid-March. This year’s start to the off-season has been extremely quiet compared to the chaos from 2022, when movement by Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Tom Brady sent ripples through the league (and the odds board).
The Chiefs are still alone as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +600, with the Bills falling into a four-way tie for the second-best odds with the Eagles, Bengals, and 49ers at +900. One of the major storylines of the off-season has been the imbalance of Lombardi Trophy contenders, with the AFC owning eight of the 13 teams at +2800 odds or shorter. Lamar Jackson remains unsigned and is one piece who could dramatically shake up the Super Bowl odds landscape. Let’s see what teams saw their fortunes change the most through the first part of the off-season.
2023 POST NFL FREE AGENCY SUPER BOWL ODDS
The odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of March 24.
|Team||SB Odds (3/24)||SB Odds (2/14)||2022 Record (ATS)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+600||+600||14-3 (5-11-1)|
|Buffalo Bills||+900||+850||13-3 (8-7-1)|
|Philadelphia Eagles||+900||+900||14-3 (8-9)|
|Cincinnati Bengals||+900||+900||12-4 (12-3-1)|
|San Francisco 49ers||+900||+900||13-4 (11-6)|
|Dallas Cowboys||+1500||+1500||12-5 (9-7-1)|
|New York Jets||+1500||+2500||7-10 (8-9)|
|Baltimore Ravens||+2100||+1600||10-7 (6-9-2)|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2100||+2000||10-7 (11-5-1)|
|Detroit Lions||+2500||+2500||9-8 (12-5)|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||+2800||+2500||9-8 (8-8-1)|
|Miami Dolphins||+2800||+3000||9-8 (9-8)|
|Green Bay Packers||+2800||+3100||8-9 (8-9)|
|Los Angeles Rams||+3000||+3000||5-12 (7-9-1)|
|Cleveland Browns||+3500||+3500||7-10 (8-9)|
|Denver Broncos||+3500||+3500||5-12 (7-10)|
|New Orleans Saints||+3500||+3500||7-10 (7-10)|
|Minnesota Vikings||+4000||+4000||13-4 (7-9-1)|
|New York Giants||+4000||+4000||9-7-1 (13-4)|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+4400||+4000||6-11 (8-9)|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||+5000||+5000||9-8 (10-6-1)|
|Chicago Bears||+5000||+6500||3-14 (5-11-1)|
|Carolina Panthers||+5500||+5500||7-10 (9-8)|
|Washington Commanders||+6000||+6000||8-8-1 (8-8-1)|
|Seattle Seahawks||+6000||+6000||9-8 (7-10)|
|Atlanta Falcons||+6000||+7500||7-10 (9-8)|
|New England Patriots||+6500||+5500||8-9 (7-9-1)|
|Tennessee Titans||+7500||+7000||7-10 (9-6-2)|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+7500||+7500||8-9 (4-12-1)|
|Indianapolis Colts||+18000||+25000||4-12-1 (6-11)|
|Arizona Cardinals||+18000||+28000||4-13 (8-9)|
|Houston Texans||+20000||+28000||3-13-1 (8-8-1)|
New York Jets (March 24: +1500; Feb. 14: +2500)
It’s no surprise that the Jets were one of the biggest risers this off-season with Aaron Rodgers on the precipice of coming to the Big Apple. The Jets saw their implied odds of a Super Bowl title go from 3.9% (tied for the ninth-best odds) in mid-February to 6.3% (tied for the sixth-best odds) after news broke that Rodgers wanted to continue his career in New York. The Jets will go from near league-worst quarterback play with Zach Wilson and company last season to a four-time NFL MVP. Rodgers came nowhere close to replicating his MVP performances from the 2021-22 seasons, averaging an ugly 6.8 YPA with a 4.8 TD rate and a 2.2% INT rate. Rodgers may well be declining but his receiving corps in New York will be much improved with Garrett Wilson set to become a star with a real NFL QB throwing him the rock. Rodgers should also be motivated to make his old team look foolish for choosing Jordan Love over him. The Jets had a Super Bowl-caliber defense led by Sauce Garder and Quinnen Williams last season, and they’ll get young studs Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker back in the fold after season-ending injuries last year. The Jets will be in the mix for the Lombardi Trophy if Rodgers returns to his MVP form from two years ago.
Chicago Bears (March 24: +5000; Feb. 14: +6500)
GM Ryan Poles has taken full advantage of having by far the league’s most cap space and owning the first overall pick before the start of the new league year. They capitalized from a bevy of QB-needy teams by moving the top overall pick for a small bounty, which included a legitimate #1 WR in D.J. Moore. The Panthers just inked him to a three-year, $61.9 million extension last March, and he’s the type of receiver Justin Fields needed to take the next step in his development as a passer. Fields certainly has a long way to go after finishing 25th out of 33 QBs with an 85.2 passer rating, but he at least has a worthy receiving corps now with Moore, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Chase Claypool. Poles then got to work improving his league-worst roster from last season by signing players like LB Tremaine Edmunds, OG Nate Davis, DT DeMarcus Walker, and LB T.J. Edwards. The Bears could potentially be this year’s Lions, which had a six-win improvement from 2021 to 2022, but asking Chicago to go from finishing with the NFL’s worst record to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in a 14-month span is a bridge too far for this bettor.
Atlanta Falcons (March 24: +6000; Feb. 14: +7500)
The Falcons really haven’t done anything to make their odds shrink, but they’re still believed to be the top team to land the services of Lamar Jackson outside of Baltimore, which placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on him. Atlanta was reportedly the first team to bow out of the running for Lamar, but their only move at quarterback has been the signing of career backup Taylor Heinicke. The Falcons have improved their roster by adding S Jessie Bates, DT David Onyemata, LB Kaden Elliss, and TE Jonnu Smith, and they also locked up their top free agent O-linemen Chris Lindstrom and Caleb McGary. Jackson’s presence in a weak NFC South would instantly put the Panthers among the top contenders in a conference devoid of top-end quarterbacks. Still, Atlanta’s odds figure to balloon back up if they remain out on Jackson’s services.
Baltimore Ravens (March 24: +2100; Feb. 14: +1600)
The Ravens had wildly different Super Bowl odds when they initially came out, opening as short as +1600 at FanDuel and as long as +3500 at Caesars, which we put a ticket on. The variance has tightened up since mid-February, with FanDuel still the shortest at +2100 and Caesars still the longest at +3000. The Ravens have one of the better collections of talent, especially on defense, but they lost OG Ben Powers, S Chuck Clark, and TE Josh Oliver. They also have a few unsigned players who could leave in DT Calais Campbell, CB Marcus Peters, and EDGE Justin Houston. But Baltimore’s odds have taken a small dip at most sportsbooks because of the Lamar Jackson contract situation and not because of some of their losses in free agency. Baltimore has racked up a 45-16 regular season record for a .737 winning percentage with Jackson in the lineup the last five years, compared to an 8-13 mark (.380) without him in that same span. Sportsbooks (and the Ravens for that matter) are in a bit of a holding pattern since the dispute seemingly has no end in sight, but the Ravens’ odds figure to plummet if Jackson signs elsewhere or if he decides to hold out for the 2023 season.
New England Patriots (March 24: +6500; Feb. 14: +5500)
The Patriots have been a floundering franchise in the three years since Tom Brady left the team, racking up a .500 record (25-25) with no more than 10 wins in any of those three campaigns. For comparison, Brady’s Patriots won 10+ games in 17 straight years before his departure. Bill Belichick has had some bizarre off-seasons since TB12 left, giving a washed-up Cam Newton the starting job in 2020 before spending the most money ever in free agency at the time in 2021. The Patriots continued to fall behind their AFC East counterparts this off-season with the Jets (Aaron Rodgers) and Dolphins (Jalen Ramsey) making big moves. New England’s most notable moves for JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki failed to move the needle. They bizarrely offered the same exact contract to Smith-Schuster as the one that Jakobi Meyers received from the Raiders, but Meyers is the better player and worked in the system for the last four years. Belichick at least handed his offense to an actual offensive coach in 2023 after he let Matt Patricia and Joe Judge call plays last season, but there’s still little optimism that the Patriots can keep pace in a hyper-competitive AFC.
Baltimore Ravens (Feb 14: +3500, Caesars; March 24: +3000)
Detroit Lions (Feb 14: +3000, DraftKings; March 24: +2500)
The Lions saw their odds shrink after addressing some glaring needs at running back (David Montgomery) and defensive back (Cam Sutton, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Emmanuel Moseley).
Jacksonville Jaguars (Feb 14: +3300, PointsBet; March 24: +2200)
The Jaguars lost OT Jawaan Taylor to the Chiefs, and they haven’t made any signings from outside their organization, but they’ve mostly kept their improving roster from 2022 intact.