2023 NFL Betting Preview: New York Giants


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2023 NFL Betting Preview: New York Giants

Former GM Dave Gettleman and HC Joe Judge dug the New York Giants organization a major hole before they departed after the 2021 season. It didn’t take long for new GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll to get New York back on course. The Giants played above expectations all season long, which is why Daboll found himself honored as the Coach of the Year (+1400) at the conclusion of the 2022 season. The Giants sailed past their season win total of seven with a 9-7-1 record, and they finished with an NFL-best 13-4 ATS record. New York clinched its first winning record and playoff berth (+230 odds) since 2016 after losing double-digit games in five straight seasons in 2017-21. They also won their first postseason game since Eli Manning raised the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the 2011 season.

Daboll got the most out of a limited roster, including a receiving corps that was led by Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins by the end of the season. Daniel Jones revived his career after the Giants declined his fifth-year rookie extension with career-bests in passer rating (92.5), completion percentage (67.2%), INT rate (1.1%), and rushing production (708/7). The Giants rewarded him this off-season with a four-year extension with $92 million guaranteed. New York placed its franchise tag on Saquon Barkley, who had his best season since his rookie campaign in 2018 with 295/1312/10 rushing and 57/338 receiving. Fifth-overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux finished with just 4 sacks as a rookie, but he showed signs of being a force for years to come next to stud Dexter Lawrence along their defensive line. Sportsbooks are still doubting the Giants in 2023 with a 7.5-win total, even after they were one of the final eight teams remaining last season.

2022 By the Numbers

  • Record (ATS): 9-7-1 (13-4)

  • Season Win Total: Over 7

  • One-Possession Record: 8-4-1 (1-0 postseason)

  • Postseason Record: 1-1 (1-1 ATS)

  • Playoff Odds: +230

  • Over/Under Record: 6-9-2

  • PPG: 21.5 (t-15th)

  • PPG Allowed: 21.8 (t-17th)

  • Average Scoring Margin: -.4 (16th)

  • Turnover Differential: +3 (11th)

2023 Schedule

1Dallas Cowboys+2.58:20 (Sun)
2@ Arizona Cardinals-44:05
3@ San Francisco 49ers+4.58:15 (Thurs)
4Seattle Seahawks-18:15 (Mon)
5@ Miami Dolphins+4.51
6@ Buffalo Bills+78:20 (Sun)
7Washington Commanders-2.51
8New York Jets+1.51
9@ Las Vegas Raiders+1.54:25
10@ Dallas Cowboys+4.54:25
11@ Washington Commanders-1.51
12New England Patriots-1.51
14Green Bay Packers-2.58:15 (Mon)
15@ New Orleans Saints+11
16@ Philadelphia Eagles+74:30 (Mon)
17Los Angeles Rams-31
18Philadelphia Eagles+2.5TBD

The Good

  • Softest Stretch: Weeks 11-14 (@Was, NE, bye, GB)

The Bad

  • The Giants have the 14th-toughest schedule based on opponent win totals (per Sharp Football).

  • The Giants play seven road games in a 10-week span in Weeks 2-11.

  • New York has one extra road game.

  • The Giants will travel the 10th-most miles (22,614) and they’ll cross 20 time zones (per Bookies.com).

  • New York is scheduled for five primetime games.

  • The Giants have three straight road games in Weeks 9-11 (@LV, @Dal, @Was)

  • Toughest Stretch: Weeks 3-6 (@SF, Sea, @Mia, @Buf)

Key Off-season Moves

TE Darren WallerCB Deonte BanksS Julian Love
LB Bobby OkerekeC John Michael SchmitzC Nick Gates
WR Parris CampbellWR Jalin HyattOG Jon Feliciano
DT Rakeem Nunez-RochesRB Eric GrayWR Richie James
WR Jamison Crowder
D A’Shawn Robinson
S Bobby McCain
CB Amani Oruwariye

Head Coach History

Brian Daboll: 1st season, 9-7-1 overall record (.559), 1-0 win total record

YearRecordWin Total ResultPoint of Elimination
2022 (NYG)9-7-1 (3rd NFCE)Over 7Divisional

2023 Season Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Team FuturesOdds
Season Win Total (O/U)7.5 (-106/-114)
NFC East+750
Playoffs (Y/N)+184/-230
NFC Championship+2200
Super Bowl+4500

Season Prop Movement

Win Total: 8.5 (+105) in late March to 7.5 (-106)

Super Bowl: +4000 in mid-February to +4500

Reasons to Bet Over the Season Win Total

Brian Daboll quickly threw his hat into the ring to be among the NFL’s best head coaches by besting New York’s win total by two games and winning a playoff game in his first season. The Giants hadn’t won a playoff game since winning the Super Bowl during the 2011 season, and they went over their win total just once in the 11 seasons before Daboll took over. He’ll try to keep his team overperforming in the weaker of the two conferences, and the Giants are the one team in the NFC East with coaching continuity with both coordinators still intact from 2022. New York had plenty of luck in one-possession games, but it faced some adversity, with the seventh-most adjusted games lost due to injury (per Football Outsiders).

New York’s success in 2023 will likely hinge on Daniel Jones’ development in Year 2 with Daboll. He threw just 5 INTs and had only 8 turnovers total in 16 games to help the Giants finish with a +3 turnover differential. Josh Allen made strides in each of his four seasons under Daboll, and the Giants gave Jones a better receiving corps by acquiring Darren Waller and Parris Campbell to help him take another step in 2023. Saquon Barkley also got his legs back under him last season after missing 21 games for knee and ankle injuries in 2019-21. On defense, Dexter Lawrence took a massive leap in 2022 to create one of the league’s best interior line tandems with Leonard Williams. The Giants could have one of the league’s best defensive lines if recent high picks Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari make their own improvements in 2023.

Reasons to Bet Under the Season Win Total

Daboll and Schoen quickly worked their magic in Year 1 to get the Giants back to relevancy, but the betting markets believe they still have a lot of work left to become legitimate title contenders. The Giants landed Waller via trade and filled major needs with their first three picks in the draft, but their win total and Super Bowl odds dipped from the start of the off-season. The markets are skeptical because the Giants finished with a 9-4-1 record in one-possession games and a -32 point differential (postseason included) during their run to the Divisional Round.

The Giants had the easiest schedule heading into the 2022 season based on win totals, and they’ll face the 14th-toughest slate this season. New York was favored in just seven games at the time of the schedule release, and the NFL screwed them by giving them seven road games in a 10-week span in Weeks 2-11. They end that brutal stretch with a three-game road stand against the Raiders, Cowboys, and Commanders. One of their home games in that span comes against the Jets, which means they’ll have less of a homefield advantage than usual.

The Giants bet on Jones to improve with more time under Daboll, but he’s yet to make much progress as a passer. He averaged a career-low 200.3 passing YPG last season and has only 36 passing TDs and a 2.8% TD rate in his last three seasons. He’s also yet to average more than 6.8 YPA in each of his first four seasons. Jones will have an improved receiving corps compared to last year but he’s hardly loaded with difference-makers unless Waller stays healthy and turns back the clock a bit.

Notable Player Props

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Daniel Jones: passing yards (3300.5), passing TDs (17.5), rushing yards (), MVP (+5000), most passing yards (+6500)

  • Fantasy Points Projection — passing yards (3895), passing TDs (20), rushing yards (565)

Saquon Barkley: rushing yards (1000.5), OPOY (+3000), most rushing yards (+1500)

  • Fantasy Points Projection — rushing yards (1175), rushing TDs (8)

Darren Waller: receiving yards (700.5), receiving TDs (4.5)

  • Fantasy Points Projection — receiving yards (725), receiving TDs (4)

Best Bets and Leans


  • New York Giants under 7.5 wins (+110, Caesars)

The Giants had nearly everything break right for them to make it to the NFL’s elite eight in Brian Daboll’s first season. I get the feeling that betting against Daboll’s team is going to be a losing proposition most years moving forward based on his recent coaching performances with the Giants and Bills, but New York is going to see some regression after getting by with some smoke and mirrors in 2022. The NFL certainly didn’t do them any favors by loading seven road games into a 10-week span in order to get Aaron Rodgers a bunch of early home games in front of New York. fans.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 64.3% clip last season and he owned the last undefeated team out of 3000 entries in Scott Fish Bowl 12.