2022 Franchise Focus: Miami Dolphins

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2022 Franchise Focus: Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have undergone significant change this off-season, and as such are one of the more interesting — and difficult — teams for our purposes in the fantasy world.

We’re not exactly sure what to think of QB Tua Tagovailoa after his two years in the NFL, but new coach Mike McDaniel brings a forward-thinking, effective scheme for his skill set. And now Tua is supported by the fastest WR duo in the NFL — and maybe in NFL history — with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Oh, in addition to adding Hill to this receiving group, Miami completely overhauled the NFL’s least-effective backfield. There’s a lot of guesswork going into projecting this team, but we’ve done a lot of digging to try to make that process sound.

Miami Dolphins Franchise Focus Companion Podcast with the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s David Furones

The Basics

Team FuturesOdds
Season Win Total (O/U)9 (+105/-125)
AFC East+450
Playoffs (Y/N)+140/-175
AFC Championship+2000
Super Bowl+4000

Season Prop Movement

Win Total: 8.5 (-125) in late March to 9 (+105) in early July

Super Bowl: +3600 in mid-February to +4000 in early July

Premium subscribers get Tom Brolley’s Betting Preview here.

Key Offseason Moves
AdditionsDraftDepartures
WR Tyreek HillLB Channing TindallQB Jacoby Brissett (Cle)
OT Terron ArmsteadWR Erik EzukanmaC Greg Mancz (Buf)
WR Cedrick WilsonWR Will Fuller
QB Teddy BridgewaterOT Jesse Davis (Min)
RB Chase Edmonds
RB Raheem Mostert
FB Alec Ingold
OG Connor Williams
CB Keion Crossen
EDGE Melvin Ingram
RB Sony Michel

Barrett’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule

Quarterback: 4th-toughest (-0.63)

Running Backs: 4th-softest (+0.72)

Wide Receivers: overall toughest (-2.01)

Tight Ends: 6th-toughest (-0.63)

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

Pace splits by score (2021)

When within a score – 27.0 (3rd)

When trailing – 25.6 (15th)

When leading – 27.8 (9th)

Play volume (2021)

Passes per game – 40.9 (8th)

Runs per game – 26.9 (18th)

Total plays per game – 67.8 (10th)

Pass/Run splits by score/situation (2021)

When within a score (1st-3rd quarters) – 4th pass rate (65%) / 29th run rate (35%)

When trailing – 2nd pass rate (73%) / 31st run rate (27%)

When leading – 13th pass rate (54%) / 20th run rate (46%)

On early-downs – 8th pass rate (59%) / 25th run rate (41%)

Summary

There are a lot of question marks surrounding this Dolphins offense heading into 2022 and none are bigger than Tua Tagovailoa’s development. One thing is for sure, though – the Dolphins likely won’t be among the top-8 teams in pass rate again. Miami’s old regime seemingly ignored trying to improve the run game, which obviously won’t be the case under new HC Mike McDaniel.

As far as coaching trees go, McDaniel is about as deeply embedded in the Shanahan tree as possible. He started working with Mike Shanahan all the way back in 2005 as an intern in Denver, then McDaniel ended up following Shanahan to Houston and Washington. After Mike retired, McDaniel was a big part of Kyle Shanahan’s coaching staffs in Cleveland (WR coach), Atlanta (offensive assistant), and San Francisco (run game coordinator and offensive coordinator).

Just for reference, the 49ers ranked 4th, 4th, and 9th in early-down run rate over the last three years. McDaniel never called plays in San Francisco, but his influence is clear. And especially after overhauling their running back room this offseason, it seems clear that the Dolphins plan to feature the run game way more. Running the ball more often and much more effectively will be a core tenant of the Dolphins attack this year and the hope there will be to take pressure off of Tua.

Data Points

Looking at Miami’s tendencies from a year ago probably won’t tell us a very complete story as they have an entirely new staff and offensive philosophy. The expectation is they adopt a lot of what head coach Mike McDaniel was doing in San Francisco and we have already seen an attempt at a carbon copy with the staff changeover in New York last year. If you haven’t read our Jets Franchise Focus, check it out here as there could be similar parallels and foreshadowing with what we should expect from the Dolphins this season from a personnel and play calling standpoint.

The Dolphins do have a pretty unique roster construction on the offensive side of the ball that might lend to McDaniel getting a little creative or stepping out of his comfort zone. The glaringly obvious talking point is tight end Mike Gesicki who is really just more of a big slot receiver, and with over 92 percent of his targets coming from the slot or out wide, was mostly used as such. This pushed the Dolphins to use 12 personnel on more than 60% of snaps last season, which not only led the league but was twice the amount of any other team. I have a hard time believing McDaniel just abandons 12p in 2022 despite using it less than all but two teams last year with the 49ers. Realistically it's more likely he finds a way to work his scheme and philosophy out of 12p at the likely detriment of 21 personnel, a grouping the 49ers used more than anyone in 2021.

We are likely to see some sizable changes in the run game as well with a transition to more wide/outside zone play calls. In 2021, the 49ers used outside zone on more than 34 percent of run plays vs. the Dolphins who used it on just 11 percent.

In the pass game the Dolphins added superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the mix who, despite popular opinion, is a perfect fit for QB Tua Tagovailoa. Tua’s most target routes last season were out routes, slants, and hitches. These three routes accounted for roughly 37% of all his throws. The same three routes also happened to be Tyreek’s most targeted routes and accounted for roughly 40% of all his targets. While Tyreek is the league's best deep threat, he is also the league's best and most dangerous receiver in the short parts of the field as well. He and his understudy Jaylen Waddle, who’s top-3 targeted routes mirror Tyreek's and could be disastrous for defenses to account for, especially if they work in more manufactured touches in 2022.

Projected Fantasy Contributors

Tua Tagovailoa (Proj: QB17 | ADP: 133 | Pos ADP: QB17)

It sure seems like “Tank for Tua” was ages ago, because we’re now two years into the young QB’s career and the prevailing question about him is merely “is he good enough?” Well, in a new offense that’s very much suited to his skill set and one of the better groups of receivers in the league around him, we’re going to find out. Tua played in 13 games a season ago, starting 12 of them, and finishing 11 of the 12 starts. In the 11 games he started and finished, he averaged 16.3 FPG, which would have ranked him as the QB17 for the full season, certainly a usable fantasy QB, though one with no ceiling — Tua finished just once as a top-5 weekly passer, and just four times in the top 12. The question is now if head coach Mike McDaniel can coax more out of Tua. Last year, the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo (under McDaniel) was 12th in the NFL in passing yards, but 17th in completed air yards. (Tua was 27th in both.) What does that mean, well, McDaniel’s offense put an emphasis on yards after the catch for an accurate QB with average arm strength. In theory, that’s what Tua is. McDaniel had dynamic playmakers with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. He should have them in Miami with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki. Why have Tua go deep if he isn’t going to be good at it? That, combined with an improved offensive line (LT Terron Armstead, C Connor Williams) are reasons to be optimistic about Tua. But keep in mind that McDaniel’s offense will start with the zone run game — San Francisco ran the ball at the 4th-highest clip in the NFL a season ago, while Miami was 22nd. The Dolphins completely overhauled their backfield, so we know that’s a focus. And despite those dynamic weapons in San Francisco… Garoppolo was just the QB17 in FPG at 16.2, almost exactly what Tua put up in his full games last year. Then, there’s the little nagging toothache that is Tua’s injury history and the fact that the Dolphins have a top backup QB in Teddy Bridgewater. Altogether, it makes Tua one of the most intriguing players to evaluate this year.

Teddy Bridgewater (Proj: QB45 | ADP: N/A | Pos ADP: N/A)

As if we didn’t know already… but last season was the final proof we needed that Teddy is a decent backup who can keep a team afloat but not direct them to the postseason. In 14 starts with Denver, Teddy posted 285/426 passing (66.9%) for 3052 yards, with 18 TD and 7 INT. He averaged 15.0 FPG, 21st among QBs with six or more appearances. He finished as a top-12 QB just three times in those 14 starts, and never as a top-5 QB despite throwing to a pretty good group of receivers in Denver. A safe, boring passer with a mediocre arm, Teddy’s playstyle is Sam Bradford-like, but in theory the YAC-focused offense of Mike McDaniel fits him extremely well if he’s pressed into action. If someone is very down on Tua Tagovailoa, that person might argue there is little to no dropoff from Tua to Teddy. We’re not there just yet.

Chase Edmonds (Proj: RB37 | ADP: 112 | Pos ADP: RB36)

Miami making an early splash in the free-agent RB market was expected given their lack of a decent run game in 2021, and they get a player new coach Mike McDaniel is familiar with from his time in the NFC West. Edmonds was expected to be the more productive fantasy back in Arizona, even while splitting with James Conner, because of his receiving prowess. But Conner both did more than expected in that department and absolutely dominated Edmonds in red-zone/goal-line work. Conner scored 18 TD to Edmonds’ 2, and also played more games — 15 to 12 (Edmonds dealt with a high ankle sprain and a rib injury). Still, Edmonds caught 43 passes in those 12 games, and now has 96 receptions over his last two seasons. He’s best suited as a complementary back, but he’s one who can come in and give a spark in long-yardage situations. He’ll continue to be a valuable PPR piece, though he likely isn’t cut out for being a “lead” back for a full season — he did average 19.9 FPG in two games without Conner last season, so he can score big in spurts. And while Miami also added Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel this off-season, Edmonds got the most guaranteed money and years of the three backs, so it’s clear this is a player McDaniel and GM Chris Grier targeted. All in all, we’d be surprised if he gets to 200 carries given his injury problems, but with his receiving prowess, he’ll get a lot of calorie-rich fantasy touches.

Sony Michel (Proj: RB57 | ADP: 206 | Pos ADP: RB62)

As a post-draft addition, Michel made a lot of sense for Miami. Despite already upgrading their RB room with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, they really only did so in theory. Both Edmonds and Mostert have injury histories, and in the case of Mostert, it’s severe. Neither Edmonds nor Mostert had ever handled even 140 carries in a season, and Myles Gaskin (who was already on the roster) was ineffective when doing so the last two years. So Michel isn’t a dynamic runner at this point — his own knee problems have robbed him of ever being that again — but he showed last year that he can still be effective in a grinder role. Playing all 17 games for the Rams (like Edmonds, yet another divisional opponent of new HC Mike McDaniel), Michel posted 208/845/4 rushing (4.1 YPC), and set career highs with 21/128/1 receiving on 33 targets. Michel’s best stretch came from Weeks 13-18, a span over which he averaged 21.5 carries per game and was the overall RB9 in PPR scoring. Of course, Michel showed signs of wearing down, leading to a reduced role in the playoffs, when he averaged just 6.5 carries per game. The point here, though, is that of Miami’s off-season additions, Michel is the only back who has shown the ability to handle 15-20 carries per game over a six-week span if need be. That doesn’t mean it will happen, and Miami should probably go out of its way to prevent it from happening, but Michel can be the early-down grinder in a committee backfield. Given he showed his stuff in the Rams’ zone-run game last year, there’s a reasonable chance Michel leads the Dolphins in carries this year.

Raheem Mostert (Proj: RB59 | ADP: 188 | Pos ADP: RB56)

Mostert carried the ball exactly twice before suffering yet another knee injury that ended his season in Week 1 of the 2021 season, which opened the door for the emergence of Elijah Mitchell. Mostert has missed 33 games over the last four years, but remained a favorite of coach Kyle Shanahan, so it’s no surprise he lands with former 49er OC Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins. Mostert turned 30 in April and you have to imagine all the injuries might have sapped his explosiveness at this stage, but his surgery reportedly went very well, and it’s not like the Dolphins need him to tote the rock 200 times, given they also signed Chase Edmonds and Sony Michel. Mostert’s straight-line burst is among the best in the NFL, but he’s going to have to prove he’s healthy. Only $250,000 in his contract is guaranteed, so Mostert will have to earn his roster spot.

Myles Gaskin (Proj: RB68 | ADP: 314 | Pos ADP: RB93)

Gaskin was the Dolphins’ leading rusher in a horrific run game last year, carrying the ball 173 times for 612 yards and 3 TD (3.5 YPC). Per SIS, only 29.5% of his runs generated a positive EPA for the Dolphins’ offense, which was 73rd of 77 RBs with 50 or more carries. So why was Gaskin the lead dog? Well, because two of the RBs below him — Salvon Ahmed and Phillip Lindsay — were his teammates. In all, Gaskin played in 17 games and was a top-24 RB in six of those games, including four games as a top-12 option. He was worth having on a roster because of his role, but he was more of a FLEX option than a reliable weekly starter. It wasn’t all Gaskin’s fault, of course. Per FootballOutsiders, the Dolphins had the third-worst run-blocking OL in the NFL last year, which speaks to why Miami spent up for Terron Armstead and Connor Williams in free agency. But it certainly doesn’t speak well to his chances of getting another 10+ carries a game that new coach Mike McDaniel came in and the Dolphins immediately added three veteran RBs in free agency.

Salvon Ahmed (Proj: RB114 | ADP: N/A | Pos ADP: N/A)

Ahmed was one of the worst RBs in the NFL last year, averaging just 2.8 YPC on 54 carries. Per SIS, only 22.2% of his runs resulted in a positive EPA for Miami… ahead of only teammate Phillip Lindsay for the league-low mark. Ahmed has some juice as a receiver, which he has shown in a small sample over his career (23 career catches) but given the Dolphins completely overhauled their backfield this year, he has an uphill climb to even make the roster.

Tyreek Hill (Proj: WR9 | ADP: 21 | Pos ADP: WR9)

The Chiefs trading away Hill was a seismic move this off-season, probably rivaled only by Green Bay dealing away Davante Adams — why would a Super Bowl contender deal its best receiver (hint: money)? But to keep this as brief as possible, why is Miami doing this? Because the Dolphins aren’t messing around. They think they’ve found their next genius head coach and offensive play-caller. And if that’s correct, if HC Mike McDaniel really is the next Kyle Shanahan — or is at least on the Shanahan, Andy Reid, Bill Belichick spectrum — that might be the only thing in football as close to as valuable as an elite QB. And they are saying publicly they believe in Tua Tagovailoa as the QB of their future, and want to set him up for long-term success, adding a true alpha WR1 to their newly minted LT Terron Armstead. Or maybe they don’t want to be where the Giants are with Daniel Jones, uncertain of whether or not they’ve found the QB of their future. They want to set their QB up for success, and if he fails the excuses are all on him, and they’ll know for sure it’s time to move on. It’s interesting that last year, Hill wasn’t the explosive deep threat he’s rightly earned the reputation for being — his aDOT was just 10.4 last year, 42nd among players with 50 or more targets. It was by far a career low (previous low was 12.9). And his 4.0 YAC/reception was also a career low. That’s likely more a function of the Chiefs’ offense being restricted than anything else, but it might also be an archetype for how Hill fits in with Tua, who is obviously not even in the same stratosphere of a passer as Patrick Mahomes. Despite all the changes last year — and some soft-tissue injuries — Hill still finished as the WR8 in PPR FPG, though his ceiling and floor simply weren’t as high. He finished as a top-5 WR in five of 17 games, but had just two more inside the top 24. In fact, he finished outside the top-36 at WR seven times. So what will Hill look like as a fantasy asset in Miami, competing for targets with Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki with a less dynamic passer? Oddly enough, maybe pretty similar to last season.

Jaylen Waddle (Proj: WR15 | ADP: 36 | Pos ADP: WR16)

It’s kind of a bummer that the guy who just set the rookie reception record with 104 isn’t being drafted as a top-12 WR… but that’s what is going to happen when Waddle’s team adds All-Pro Tyreek Hill to the fold. Last season, Tua Tagovailoa targeted Waddle on 26.9% of his throws. That ranked well ahead of the next-closest Miami receiver (Mike Gesicki, 17.8%), and would have ranked 4th-best among all receivers. From Week 6 on, Waddle ranked 8th in both targets per game (9.5) and FPG (17.4). And in Tagovailoa’s 10 starts over this span, Waddle averaged 9.8 targets and 18.3 FPG, numbers which would have ranked 7th and 5th-best over the full season. Clearly, their rapport had carried over from the Alabama day, though Waddle’s work near the line of scrimmage was a pretty big surprise — he was regarded as a deft speedster in the 2021 NFL Draft, but averaged a minuscule 7.1 aDOT, 11th-fewest among 89 WRs with 50 or more targets as a rookie. (He averaged more than 11 aDOT in two of his three seasons at Alabama, but under 6 in the other.) So how does new coach Mike McDaniel view Waddle? Does he view him and Tyreek interchangeably? Waddle ran 62% of his routes from the slot last season, compared to Hill’s 54% (55% over the last three seasons). Last season they finished 3rd- (62) and 4th- (60) in total receptions from the slot (respectively). So the question here is this: will Hill or Waddle be forced to run a much higher percentage of his routes out wide, potentially to the detriment of their typical effectiveness? And is it even possible for both of them to be on the field and running routes from the slot at the same time? (That’s something of a rarity within the NFL, with the 2019 Rams being the most recent exception. That year Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, respectively, recorded 73% and 44% of their catches from the slot.) We would think at least one would have to play outside a ton, given the Dolphins also have two more predominant slot options in Cedrick Wilson and TE Mike Gesicki. Maybe the confusion is the point for McDaniel, but it makes Waddle a really tough receiver to rank.

Cedrick Wilson (Proj: WR96 | ADP: 214 | Pos ADP: WR100)

Wilson benefited from a pretty aggressive WR market and landed a three-year deal with Miami, and perhaps surprisingly moved on from the suddenly WR-needy Cowboys following the trade of Amari Cooper and the uncertain injury status of Michael Gallup. Wilson played on over 45% of the Cowboys’ snaps in just 10 total games last regular season. But he showed his upside in the latter half of the year, as his final six games with more than a 45% snap share resulted in 16.0 FPG, 10.1 XFP/G, and 67.7 YPG. Those numbers would have ranked 12th-, 56th-, and 19th-best among WRs this past season. And Wilson met or exceeded 17.4 fantasy points in his final three contests with a snap share over 45%. The issue with projecting him for fantasy? Nearly every snap Wilson took last year was… *drumroll* … FROM THE SLOT! In case you’ve missed the focus of this writeup, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and TE Mike Gesicki all ran the majority of their routes and made the majority of their catches from the slot. Something’s got to give, and unfortunately for Wilson, we’re wondering if the Dolphins would have signed him if they had known Hill would come available. Historically, Wilson is the least versatile of the top three WRs here, which will probably limit him to specific personnel packages.

Mike Gesicki (Proj: TE15 | ADP: 133 | Pos ADP: TE12)

The Dolphins’ “franchise” player, Gesicki is now under contract for one year at about $11 million, which makes his usage under new coach Mike McDaniel all the more fascinating. Why? Well… because Gesicki was, despite his positional designation, predominantly a slot receiver last year. In 2021, Gesicki recorded 44 receptions from the slot, which ranked 15th-most among all receivers and accounted for 60% of his total receptions. (Gesicki posted 73/780/2 and was the TE9 in overall scoring). Per PFF, Gesicki played over half his snaps in the slot, and about 30% out wide. Gesicki — a tight end — was actually lined up as an in-line TE on less than 12% of snaps. In fact, Gesicki didn’t even lead his own team in TE snaps. That’s notable because McDaniel comes from a system based around the zone run game, and the TEs in McDaniel’s system are expected to block. That is not Gesicki’s strong suit — teammates Durham Smythe (the team’s #1 TE in total snaps) and Adam Shaheen are better in that department. It’s possible that McDaniel chooses to use Gesicki as his X or Z receiver while interchanging Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at the other WR position and the slot (both Hill and Waddle were predominant slot receivers last year, as well). This could be a matchup-based play — on teams that don’t have size at CB, Gesicki can be a matchup piece. On teams that have size but lack speed, Cedrick Wilson could work in to Gesicki’s detriment. The Dolphins have the pieces on their current roster to play a ton of 12 personnel (which they led the league in last year last year, but McDaniel was toward the bottom), 21 personnel (a 49ers favorite, leading the league last year), and 11 personnel (which would likely hurt Gesicki’s role). Gesicki was an inconsistent fantasy asset last year, playing in 17 games but ranking as a top-12 TE just seven times. It’s highly possible he’s inconsistent again in 2022.

Durham Smythe (Proj: TE46 | ADP: N/A | Pos ADP: N/A)

Fantasy players would say Smythe was the Dolphins’ predominant #2 TE in 2021, though in actuality he played more than 100 snaps more than “TE1” Mike Gesicki. That’s because Smythe was the Dolphins’ top “in-line” TE on a team that played more 12 personnel than any team in football — he’s a better run blocker than Gesicki. That alone will get him on the field in new coach Mike McDaniel’s zone-heavy run-based scheme, perhaps to Gesicki’s detriment. But much like current 49er Charlie Woerner, it’s not likely to be a fantasy-heavy role. Smythe played in all 17 games last year but caught just 34 passes… with no TDs.

Adam Shaheen (Proj: TE67 | ADP: N/A | Pos ADP: N/A)

Shaheen was the backup to Durham Smythe at the Dolphins’ in-line TE position a season ago, and given new coach Mike McDaniel relies a bunch on an in-line TE for run blocking purposes, should have a chance to show his stuff in training camp and the preseason. At a massive 6’5” and 270 pounds, Shaheen could be a red-zone vulture, but it’s highly unlikely he’s anything more than a fantasy nuisance on this roster.

Huber’s Dynasty Buy-Low

A stat bundle that I’ll continue to drive home is that no QB used a higher rate of play action than Tua Tagovailoa last season. He fed Jaylen Waddle with the second-most play action FPG. Tyreek Hill generated the third-most play action FPG last season despite Patrick Mahomes only using the 14th-highest rate. Think it’s a coincidence that Miami surrounded Tua with Mike McDaniel as the new HC from a play action-heavy offense in San Francisco, Frank Smith as the new OC from an L.A. Chargers’ offense that passed for the second-most play action yardage and traded for the elite play action production efficiency of Hill? No chance.

Tagovailoa may not have the arm-cannon of Josh Allen, but his ball-placement and accuracy to all three levels is alongside Joe Burrow and the top arm talents in the NFL. Evaluating Tagovailoa’s upside was impossible without the same level of weaponry that have made the best QBs in the NFL’s ascension possible. If he falls flat with his current receiver group, we can stick a fork in his dynasty value. Until then, Tua deserves the same opportunity to showcase his upside. He also deserves to be selected at least a full round prior to his current dyno start-up ADP in the mid-13th round.

Hansen’s Final Points

There’s not a lot of mystery with Tua Tagovailoa, who is clearly a pocket passer first and not someone who can be counted on for rushing production. But Tua does have the ability to add 2-4 rushing TDs with around 200 yards, which isn’t bad. Tua’s range of possible outcomes isn’t that wide, but there’s upside to be had if things click quickly with the revamped OL and receiving corps. Miami will be run-heavy, but probably not as much as the 49ers were when new HC Mike McDaniel was there. We have Tua priced with the markets, but we’re certainly willing to give him a slight bump and consider him a very high-end QB2 if the vibes are good this summer.

At this point, no one is considering Teddy Bridgewater as a QB handcuff of sorts, but if Tua Tagovailoa has another injury problem and Teddy is forced into action, he’d be in the mix to settle in as a top-20 guy, given the quality weapons in Miami’s passing game.

At the very least, given his high salary, Chase Edmonds is clearly the back of choice for fantasy in this backfield. He’s a good receiver, but he’s almost never used in short-yardage and goal line situations, and he’s had a few more injury issues than you’d like to see for a part-time player. It’s also a very crowded backfield and should trend toward an RBBC as the season progresses, so we’re below Edmunds’ ADP of around 100 and RB34. He’s viable if you need a back in the eighth round, but I do not think the case for him is very compelling.

He’s more of an unexciting grinder at this point, but Sony Michel still has some game left in him, and he was actually the RB9 the final six weeks of the season starting in Week 12 and the RB17 in FPPG. Michel’s getting up there at 27, but he has only 790 career touches, and he should be critical here because he’s the best downhill thumper on the roster, they need and he fits well with their zone blocking scheme. Michel’s ADP is only 175-185, so he’s a nice cheap option for depth and he should return a solid ROI.

In theory, the Dolphins could certainly use Raheem Mostert’s speed, and he knows this offense from his time in SF. But in reality, Mostert is impossible to trust at 30 years old, given his poor record of health. He’s a potential cut candidate, and if he’s on the roster should be only a rotational guy, so there’s probably more downside than upside.

It’s looking like an ugly RBBC in Miami, so no one is drafting Myles Gaskin, whose ADP is 300+ this summer. The best chance Gaskin has, if he’s on the final roster, is for Chase Edmonds to miss time. In that scenario, Gaskin could merit flex consideration in PPR leagues because he’d likely be their passing down back.

The great thing about the Shanahan system is it can make ordinary RBs look good. The bad thing is because of this fact, you have to monitor every RB with a pulse anywhere near the roster. But Salvon Ahmed isn’t a very good runner, so if he contributes it might have to be in the passing game. There is zero upside here.

It seems likely that Tyreek Hill will do a lot of his work near the line of scrimmage, which I do like since he’s new to the team. The OL has been shaky but it’s been upgraded, and with Mike McDaniels leading the offense now, we should probably expect some more Deebo-like opportunities for Hill as well. The fact that Hill’s losing some steam as a vertical threat is a mild concern, but it’s probably a positive as he’s now paired with an average QB in Tua Tagovailoa. Tua could absolutely elevate his game this year, but there has to be some tax on Tyreek leaving the Chiefs offense, and it looks to be around 10-12 picks overall with Hill now a late-second round pick. I can sign off on that, but I’m not actively targeting Hill in the top-25.

The addition of Tyreek Hill is obviously a buzzkill for Jaylen Waddle, especially since the Hill move only dropped Waddle 10 or fewer draft positions from where he was trending early in the off-season. So in that regard, Waddle, whose role is likely shifting this year, is a lot less appealing than I thought he'd be at season’s end. We can’t call him a value or even a target, but we’re still very high on the player and there’s something to be said for leaning on pedigree once the obvious fantasy studs are off the board 25 or so picks into a draft.

He looks like a solid depth guy for Miami, but Cedrick Wilson’s fantasy ceiling collapsed when they added Tyreek Hill. Hill and Jaylen Waddle command the ball, and TE Mike Gesicki will get his, so Wilson’s fantasy impact should be negligible if their top guys are healthy. He would definitely be a solid guy to target on the WW should Hill or Waddle miss time.

He’s frustrating because he can flash majorly any given week, but Mike Gesicki is a little too much finesse, which is one of the main reasons he hasn’t emerged as a more consistent factor. His snaps in the slot may drop this year, as well, which is not great news. We’re not looking at another George Kittle here for new HC Mike McDaniel, since Gesicki is not much of a blocker. I’m once again expecting some big games, but I’m also once again expecting Gesicki to be maddeningly inconsistent, and he is not a target for us.

If you see a big guy score for Miami this year, it may not be Mike Gesicki, since Durham Smythe may actually play more snaps this year as their in-line guy. Of course, if a Dolphins TE scores and his name is not Gesicki, it could also be Adam Shaheen, so there’s nothing to see here.

He was once an intriguing draft prospect, but Adam Shaheen has been a backup and a guy only in the NFL, and that’s not likely to change this year with two other TEs on the roster who play a lot.

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