New York Jets (1-3, 1-3 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-3, 1-3), 9:30 a.m., London, England
Brolley’s Jets Stats and Trends
New York snapped its three-game ATS losing streak to open the season last week.
The Jets are 6-2 toward unders in their last eight games.
Zach Wilson has eight INTs in his first four games, but he broke into the win column with his best performance as a pro in Week 4. He completed 21/34 passes for 297 yards (8.7 YPA), two TDs, and one INT against the Titans. The Falcons have given up 260+ passing yards in every game and 3+ TD passes in three of four games.
Corey Davis has been extremely volatile with his shaky rookie QB, but he topped 21+ FP for the second time in four games. He posted 4/111/1 receiving on seven targets last week, and Terry McLaurin just ripped them for 6/123/2 receiving last week.
Jamison Crowder saw his first action of the season in Week 4 after missing the first three games of the season with a groin injury, and he instantly stepped into a significant role as Wilson’s security blanket in the middle of the field. He finished 7/61/1 receiving on a team-best nine targets (26% share) in their victory over the Titans. The Falcons are middle of the pack with 13.5 receptions allowed per game to WR.
Elijah Moore is expected to return from his concussion from Week 3, and it will be interesting to see how they rotate these WRs this week with Keelan Cole factoring in more the last two weeks. Moore saw a 17% target share through the first three weeks but he turned his 18 targets into just 8/66 receiving.
Michael Carter’s role has been slowly growing in the first month, and he finished with season-highs in snap share (51%), touches (14), and touchdowns (1) against the Titans last week. He scored his touchdown on a goal-line carry but his passing-game production remains a concern with 6/44 receiving through four games. The Falcons are giving up the eighth-most FPG (26.6) to RBs in the early going.
Brolley’s Falcons Stats and Trends
The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
Atlanta is 5-2 toward unders in its last seven games.
Cordarrelle Patterson is quickly going down as this year’s waiver wire darling after yet another monster performance in Week 4. He matched Tyreek Hill’s week-best three touchdown receptions on his way to finishing with 5/82/3 receiving on six targets and 6/34 rushing for 34.6 FP against Washington in Week 4. Patterson has been incredibly efficient with his opportunities, playing on just 30% of the snaps last week with Wayne Gallman getting involved for the first time with a 13% snap share. Mike Davis continues to be incredibly lethargic with 13/14 rushing but he scored a receiving TD on 67% of the snaps to bail out his owners. Patterson’s continued strong play and Gallman’s Week 4 reps could be the start of HC Arthur Smith dialing back Davis’ workload moving forward. Patterson has been good for 16+ FP in each of the last three weeks, and Jeremy McNichols went for 8/74 receiving in this matchup last week. The Jets have also given up five rushing TDs to the position to give Davis some hope.
Matt Ryan erupted for four passing TDs last week after he totaled just four scores through the first three weeks of the season. He attacked downfield for the first time all year with a DOT of 11.5 yards after averaging 4.9 yards through the first three weeks. The Jets have allowed just two passing TDs to QBs all season, and Sam Darnold is the only QB to reach 20+ FP against them.
With Ryan playing more aggressive last week, Calvin Ridley’s aDOT shot up from 9.0 yards to 15.1 and he resulted in a season-best 80 yards. Ridley has now seen double-digit targets in each of the last three games, but he’s yet to break through with 20+ FP performance, which he did five times with Julio Jones hanging around. The Jets haven’t allowed a WR to reach 16+ FP this season, with D.J. Moore coming the closest with 6/80 receiving in the season opener.
Kyle Pitts saw a season-high nine targets last season, but he once again failed to find the end zone. He’s reached double-digit FP just once this season, but he now ranks third in routes (139) at the position so he’s bound to see some positive regression in the near future. The Jets have yet to allow a TE to reach 45+ receiving yards or 7+ FP in the first month of the season.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace: 26.6 (8th)
Plays per game: 66.3 (19th)
Pass: 67.2% (4th) | Run: 32.8% (29th)
Pace (seconds in between plays): 26.7 (9th)
Plays per game: 68.8 (12th)
Pass: 65.7% (7th) | Run: 34.3% (26th)
While this game is the third-quickest in adjusted combined pace, it ranks just ninth overall in the pace/play model on the Week 5 slate because of a middling total and play volume between these two sides. Both the Jets (30th) and Falcons (23rd) are in the bottom-10 in time of possession per drive as both offenses have struggled out of the gates and now Atlanta could edge even lower with Calvin Ridley out. While the Falcons have played in two shootouts (vs. Tampa and Washington), the Jets are 1-3 towards the under so far and their one over was last week’s overtime affair against the Titans. All of the upside in this game depends on the defenses struggling as both are bottom-12 in percentage of drives ending in a score.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
NOTE: Calvin Ridley has been ruled out this week with a personal matter. He is not traveling to London!
We only have a game’s worth of data, but early signs indicate a strong bond developing between Zach Wilson and Jamison Crowder. Making his 2021 debut, Crowder was instantly greeted with a 27% share of the targets. Elijah Moore has been shifted outside, so this is a relationship that should be allowed to blossom.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
The talk of the town with the Falcons is RB Cordarrelle Patterson, who continues to put up massive numbers despite a part-time role. Per PFF, Patterson has run just 51 routes, tied for 35th among RBs. He has 27 carries, tied for 43rd among RBs. And he’s scored 83.4 fantasy points… 3rd among RBs. That’s why Scott Barrett’s XFP model has Patterson as a major regression candidate, but we also have to factor in the possibility that the Falcons continue to give Patterson a little more work while reducing Mike Davis’ role — Davis’ 15 opportunities in Week 4 were a season-low, and he gained just 26 yards on those opportunities. Meanwhile, Wayne Gallman worked into the equation for the first time this season.
I do anticipate that Patterson will not be scoring TDs at the prodigious clip he did in Week 4, but he leads all RBs in receiving yardage (235) despite running so few routes. He’s a legitimate weapon, and while he might not be an RB1 going forward, he is not someone I’m comfortable benching at this time, especially against a Jet defense that’s given up the most FPG to RBs this year, and with the Falcons down Calvin Ridley (personal) and Russell Gage (ankle). Davis is a RB2/FLEX, though I wonder if he gets phased out.
Atlanta has two more regression candidates, these to the positives — Ridley and TE Kyle Pitts. Allow Scott, from the Week 5 XFP Report, to explain:
“… for what it's worth, Matt Ryan (72.1) surprisingly ranks above Josh Allen in PFF pass grade (70.1). So, at least, he hasn’t been Ben Roethlisberger-levels of bad (53.2).
Among WRs, Ridley ranks 26th in FPG (14.6), but 5th in XFP per game (20.5), 6th in air yards per game (132.5), and 5th in targets per game (11.5). I’d still bet heavily on WR1 production throughout the remainder of the season.
Among TEs, Pitts ranks only 20th in FPG (8.5), but 5th in route share (81%), 5th in XFP per game (13.0), 6th in targets per game (7.0), and 6th in air yards per game (54.0). He’s also the top touchdown-regression candidate at the position; an end zone virgin despite 3 targets inside the 10-yard-line (most) and 4 end zone targets (which ranks behind only Darren Waller). I’d be shocked if he didn’t put up at least low-end TE1 production throughout the remainder of the season.”
And check out coach Arthur Smith’s adjusted plan for Matt Ryan last week, after a bunch of Checkdown Charlie-ing in Weeks 1-3:
Matt Ryan posted a season-high QB3 fantasy finish after uncorking the vertical passing attack.— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) October 4, 2021
12.5 ADOT vs. 5.2, 4.8 and 4.8 previous three weeks.
Looks a bit more like Arthur Smith's passing game from Tennessee. Just one data point, but worth monitoring.
Ridley, of course, is out this week with a personal matter. The Falcons do not have many available WRs. Maybe you can take a shot on Olamide Zaccheaus if you really need targets from someone. He’s a high-volatility WR3.
#Falcons WR Russell Gage (ankle) is also ruled out for Week 5.— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) October 7, 2021
Falcons available WRs:
Juwan Green (PS)
Austin Trammel (PS)
Keelan Doss (PS)
Pitts has been frustrating, but the usage there suggests he’s bound to produce soon as the Falcons get their feet under them. And I would have to imagine Pitts gets absolutely peppered with targets with Ridley out. Despite last week, you can probably do better than Ryan against a defense giving up the 4th-fewest FPG to opposing QBs.
Though QB Zach Wilson got his first win and played his best game of his young career against the Titans last week, the Jets don’t really leave much in the way of getting excited for fantasy.
The one exception I’ll make is for WR Corey Davis, who has gone over 20 fantasy points in two of four games and has busted in the other two, but the Falcons are allowing a league-high 66.6% of WR fantasy points against them on the perimeter. And that’s a team allowing the 9th-most FPG overall to WRs, so that’s a solid chunk of production if you’re looking to fill a WR3 hole.
Of course, coinciding with the fact that the Falcons allow so much production outside means they don’t allow much inside — a third-fewest 13.7 FPG. That comes with a caveat, however — the Falcons just put top slot CB Isaiah Oliver on season-long IR with a knee injury, and his backup Avery Williams suffered a hamstring injury in practice this week and is listed as doubtful.
In his first game of the season in Week 4, Jamison Crowder played about two-thirds of his snaps inside, so it’s a tougher draw for him based on the numbers. That said, he did lead the Jets in targets, and Wilson has targeted slot receivers on 43.2% of his passes so far, per SIS. Crowder usurped Braxton Berrios’ role, and the Jets could have a pretty nasty rotation here before long. Given the injuries, this does look like a blowup spot for Crowder.
In the backfield, the only guy really worth rostering in most formats at this point is Michael Carter, and he actually has two top-36 RB finishes… just none in the top 24. Still, his usage has been on the rise, and barring coach Robert Saleh really leaning into this being a #RevengeGame for Tevin Coleman, Carter can come through as a low-end FLEX in a deeper league. Atlanta has given up the 8th-most FPG to opposing RBs so far.