Week 16 Game Hub: JAX-NYJ

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Week 16 Game Hub: JAX-NYJ

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12, 4-10 ATS) at New York Jets (3-11, 3-11), 1 p.m.

Brolley’s Jaguars Stats and Trends

  • The Jaguars didn’t get a post-Urban Meyer bump like many thought they would with the Jaguars moving from three- to five-point favorites against the Texans. It’s so bad for Jacksonville’s offense right now that their 16 points in Week 15 represented the most points they’ve scored in more than a month.

  • Jacksonville has dropped five straight games ATS and six straight outright.

  • The Jaguars are 8-1 toward unders in their last nine games.

  • Plenty of people in Jacksonville couldn’t wait for Urban Meyer to hit the highway, but no one more than James Robinson. Meyer did all he could to move J-Rob down the depth chart by signing Carlos Hyde and drafting Travis Etienne in the first round this off-season, and he reduced Robinson’s workload in the weeks before his firing despite a lack of suitable alternatives. It was no surprise that Robinson saw his most carries in a game (18) since Week 5 and his highest snap share (84%) since Week 4 in his first game without Meyer in 2021. He turned in 18/75/1 rushing and 3/13 receiving on six targets for 17.8 FP in their loss to the Texans in Week 15. He benefited from Hyde missing with a concussion, but it appears that HC Darrell Bevell is smart enough to feature Robinson moving forward in an offense that’s devoid of offensive talent — Hyde landed on the IR this week. He has another smash spot against the Jets this week, who just let the corpse of Duke Johnson go for 23/127/2 scrimmage against them in Week 15.

  • Trevor Lawrence’s struggles continued in Week 15 even with Urban getting kicked to the curb. He completed 22/38 passes for 210 scoreless yards (5.5 YPA) against the lowly Texans, but at least he didn’t turn it over after throwing four INTs against the Titans in Week 14. He’s now finished with fewer than 11 FP in six of his last seven games. The Jets are giving up the eighth-most FPG (19.4) to QBs this season.

  • Laquon Treadwell has led the Jaguars’ WRs in receiving in four straight games with four consecutive performances with four catches and 50+ receiving yards. He finished with 6/57 receiving on nine targets in Jacksonville’s loss to the Texans in Week 15. DeVante Parker posted 4/68/1 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.

  • James O’Shaughnessy finally made some noise in Week 15, catching all four of his targets for 60 yards in their loss to the Texans. On the downside, he played a season-low 63% of the snaps with Bevell taking over as the interim head coach. Mike Gesicki managed 5/43 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.

Brolley’s Jets Stats and Trends

  • The Jets are dealing with a COVID outbreak this week with 15 players and HC Robert Saleh landing on the list on Wednesday morning.

  • New York hasn’t covered in four straight home games.

  • The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.

  • The Jets are 8-3 toward overs in their last 11 games.

  • The Jets split the work between Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman last week in Carter’s first game since Week 11. The rookie finished with just 8/18 rushing and 1/2 receiving on two targets and a 54% snap share while Coleman had 8/50 rushing on a 37% snap share. Coleman has now posted 50+ rushing yards while averaging 5.0 YPA in his last three games. The Jaguars had given up 14+ FP to an individual RB in three straight games in Weeks 12-14 before running into Houston’s pathetic rushing attack last week.

  • Zach Wilson has finished with 13 or fewer FP in three of his four games since returning to the lineup in Week 12. He completed 13/23 passes for 170 scoreless yards (7.4 YPA) and he added 4/12/1 rushing in their loss to the Dolphins in Week 15. Fellow rookie Davis Mills managed 209/2 passing and 15.6 FP in a victory over the Jags last week.

  • Jamison Crowder was the only Jets receiver to see more than three targets last week. He mustered 5/40 receiving on a team-best 33% target share against the Dolphins, which means he’s managed just 8/59 receiving on 14 targets since both Elijah Moore and Corey Davis left the lineup. The Jaguars got absolutely ripped from the slot last week with Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett combining for 7/116/1 receiving when lined up inside last week.

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

Jaguars

Pace (seconds in between plays): 27.3 (9th)

Plays per game: 60.0 (27th)

Pass: 65.7% (5th) | Run: 34.3% (28th)

Jets

Pace: 28.2 (17th)

Plays per game: 64.6 (13th)

Pass: 67.2% (3rd) | Run: 32.8% (30th)

All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.

Pace Points

We’ve got a battle for the No. 1 overall pick… again! The Jags can basically cement themselves a top-2 pick with another L because they are going to be double-digit underdogs in Weeks 17-18 when they take on the Patriots and Colts. No offense is more inept than the Jaguars – not even the Jets. Over the last eight weeks, the Jaguars have scored on a league-low 20% of their possessions. Our old pal Brian Schottenheimer is taking over as the play-caller for Darrell Bevell over the next three weeks to try and generate a spark.

Zach Wilson is playing a bit better since returning a month ago, but that still isn’t saying much. New York is averaging just 15.4 points per game in his nine full starts and the Jets are 5-4 towards unders in those games, which is honestly remarkable considering how bad their defense is.

Huber’s Key Matchup Notes

The Jets are handing out blank checks to opposing RBs with the following funds available for withdrawal:

  • 7.43 RZ touches/game (the most)

  • 3.29 GTG carries/game (the most)

  • 20.7 FPG on the ground (the most)

  • 34.8 overall FPG (the most16% more than any other team)

If Duke Johnson Jr. can score 28.7 FPs against New York, James Robinson could reasonably exceed 30 if J-ville can figure out how to stay out in front of the Jets.

Dolan’s Vantage Points

Well, if there’s one player you want to play from this game for fantasy, as Wes alluded, it’s RB James Robinson.

Here’s Jake Tribbey from the DFS Early Look on JRob:

“James Robinson has officially been freed, and appears to have returned to his bell cow role from Weeks 3 through 6, when he averaged 19.8 touches per game, 17.3 XFP per game, and 21.7 FPG. Among slate-eligible RBs, those numbers would rank 5th-, 6th-, and 2nd-best. Assuming a neutral matchup, that makes him an unmistakable value on DraftKings as the RB12 (by salary) and more of neutral play on FanDuel where he’s been priced up to RB4.

But this is nowhere close to a neutral matchup, in fact, it’s far and away the best matchup we have for opposing RBs. The Jets are giving up +11.3 schedule-adjusted FPG (most), 20.2 rushing FPG (most), and 13.9 receiving FPG (2nd-most) to opposing RBs this season. They rank dead last in PFF run defense grades (33.7), and 2nd-worst in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA (-0.5%). And they were just shredded by Duke Johnson on Sunday for 127 all purpose yards and 24.7 fantasy points. This is an elite matchup for JRob.”

If you’ve been streaming TE James O’Shaughnessy, keep in mind that the Jags opened TE Dan Arnold’s window to return from IR this week. That could be big news for QB Trevor Lawrence.

As for the Jets… well, they’re a crappy fantasy team anyway, and half the roster appears to be in COVID protocol, along with HC Robert Saleh.

By the time you read this, some of those guys will be off the list, others will be on it. The only Jets I’m considering for fantasy are RB Michael Carter and WR Jamison Crowder (if Crowder can play with a calf injury).

However, despite Saleh saying Carter would have a “significant role” last week, he was indeed limited in his first game back from an ankle injury as he and Tevin Coleman split carries with 8 apiece. Carter was also limited in the passing game as he ran just 15 routes in the Jets 35 pass plays.

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