Green Bay Packers (10-3, 11-2 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5, 6-7), 4:25 p.m.
Brolley’s Packers Stats and Trends
The Packers own a two-game advantage on the Patriots and Cardinals for the best ATS record in the league with their 11-2 mark.
The Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite, and they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
Green Bay once again saw the line move against them last week for the sixth straight game, and they went 5-1 ATS in those contests.
Green Bay is 4-1 toward the under in its last five road games.
Aaron Rodgers is reaaaaally struggling through his toe injury with three of his four best fantasy performances coming in his last three games. He’s posted 26+ FP, 300+ passing yards, and multiple TD passes in three consecutive games. Baltimore is giving up the second-most passing yards per game (280.0) to QBs and Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger have thrown for two TDs against them in each of the last two weeks.
Davante Adams has scored double-digit FP in each of his 12 games this season, and he’s reached 6+ catches in six straight games. He’s on fire with A-Rod heating up the last three weeks, posting 100+ yards and 18+ FP in each contest. The Ravens have given up 90+ yards to at least one individual WR in four straight games (five total).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had seen a team-high 19 targets in Green Bay’s last two games leading into Week 14 before hanging 3/20 receiving on five targets against the Bears. He’s in a good spot to bounce back against Baltimore’s undermanned perimeter CBs, and Donovan Peoples-Jones posted 5/90 receiving on seven targets in this matchup last week.
Allen Lazard was the secondary receiver of choice for Rodgers last week as he stepped into Randall Cobb’s slot WR role since he landed on injured reserve. He finished with season-highs in targets (7), catches (6), yards (75), and FP (20.9) against the Bears. He gets a little tougher matchup working inside this week, but Jarvis Landry managed 5/41/1 receiving last week.
A.J. Dillon saw the most touches (15), scrimmage yards (71), and snap share (54%) in this backfield last week, but Aaron Jones came through with two touchdowns on his way to 8/65 scrimmage on a 45% snap share. Dillon has now seen more touches than Jones in three consecutive games. No individual running back has scored 16+ FP against the Ravens since Jonathan Taylor did it back in Week 5, and the Ravens are limiting RBs to 3.9 YPC this season.
Brolley’s Ravens Stats and Trends
Baltimore is 4-1 toward unders in its last five games.
The Ravens are 3-1 ATS in their last four games.
Lamar Jackson is heading toward being a game-time decision after he left early in Baltimore’s loss to the Browns in Week 14. Tyler Huntley jumped into the lineup for the second time in four weeks, and he’d be in line to start this week if he’s unable to play against the Packers. It took some time for Huntley to get heated up against the Browns, but he ended up completing 27/38 passes for 270 yards (7.1 YPA) and one TD. He added 6/45 rushing for 17.3 FP in just 45 minutes of action. The Packers have given up 21+ FP to three consecutive quarterbacks with Justin Fields posting 224/2 passing 9/74 rushing against them last week.
The race for the TE1 spot is heating up with George Kittle (16.9 FPG) leapfrogging to the top, but Mark Andrews (16.0) is hot on his trail after hanging 28.5 FP against the Browns last week. He caught all 11 of his targets for 115 yards and touchdown last week, which gives him an excellent 17/188/1 receiving on 19 targets in the two games Huntley has appeared in. Andrews has 8+ targets in six straight games and he’s reached 60+ yards in eight of his last 11 games. The Packers are giving up the 13th-fewest FPG (11.8) to TEs this season.
Marquise Brown has 5+ catches in six straight games, but his YPR has plummeted to 7.7 yards over his last four games since the Dolphins started the trend of blitzing the crap out of the Ravens Hollywood averaged 14.8 YPR in his first eight games of the season. He also hasn’t scored in five games after finding paydirt six times in his first seven contests. The Packers got burned for long scores by Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham before their Week 13 bye before holding Darnell Mooney to a 19-yard catch last week on five targets.
Rashod Bateman had fallen off the fantasy radar over the last three weeks with just 7/60 receiving on 11 targets in Weeks 11-13, but that changed in Week 14 with Sammy Watkins leaving in the second half with a knee injury. Bateman stepped up with his best game of the season with the Ravens chasing points against the Browns, as he finished with 7/103 receiving on eight targets on a 65% snap share. Bateman needs Watkins to miss to be considered this week, but at least the Packers have given up 15+ FP to seven different WRs in their last three games.
Devonta Freeman is dominating the opportunities in the Ravens’ backfield with 18 touches and a 66% snap share last week, which he turned into 72 yards and 12.2 FP. He conceded one touch to Latavius Murray last week, but it came on a one-yard touchdown run against the Browns. David Montgomery managed 10/42 rushing and 6/39 receiving against the Packers last week.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 32.2 (32nd)
Plays per game: 64.4 (14th)
Pass: 61.1% (16th) | Run: 38.9% (17th)
Pace: 29.7 (26th)
Plays per game: 74.4 (1st)
Pass: 61.3% (14th) | Run: 38.7% (19th)
All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.
Well, with Lamar Jackson likely out, this game takes a huge hit overall. The spread has moved from Packers -3 to -6.5 and will climb throughout the weekend while the total is down 3-4 points from open. Even if Lamar were able to go, I’d still have concerns about this game’s pace. Green Bay is just dominating time of possession in their games by getting to the line of scrimmage as slow as possible. Over the last eight weeks, the Packers lead the NFL in time of possession per drive (3:24) because Aaron Rodgers is a master of milking the clock late in games to close them out and their last two wins against the Rams and Bears were the epitome of how this team wants to play. Green Bay held the ball for 39:40 of game clock in their win over the Rams and did the same thing last week over the Bears with a 35:00 to 25:00 time of possession advantage. They’ll look to do the same against Tyler Huntley.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
The Ravens are down bad in the secondary. No Marlon Humphrey, no Marcus Peters, no Jimmy Smith, and no Chuck Clark. Responsibility for surrendering monster numbers to Davante Adams will now fall on the shoulders of Anthony Averett. The Ravens will count on Averett to be their lockdown corner 😳. He’s gift-wrapping the 1.57 YPCS (fifth-most), 0.30 FP/CS (15th-most), 0.21 AY/CS (seventh-most), and, oddly enough, a 79.0 TPR (22nd-lowest). That TPR is going to be put to the ultimate test. And Baltimore is going to have nothing in response to the hailstorm the Packers’ passing offense is going to bring down on their heads.
If Lamar Jackson (ankle) can’t play, Tyler Huntley is going to be the starting QB for John Harbaugh this week. I was thoroughly impressed with Huntley this preseason. He has impressive zip on his ball, combined with some sexy mobility. If he can find his groove in Week 15, don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
Here’s Jake Tribbey from DFS Early Look with more on Adams:
“We all know Adams is an elite player for both real life and fantasy purposes. He leads all WRs this season in PFF receiving grade (91.9) and ranks 2nd in YPRR (2.84), behind only Cooper Kupp. And he ranks 2nd in FPG (21.0) and 2nd in target share (30%) among WRs — again, only behind Kupp.
But like I said, we already know that. What really makes Adams stand out this week is his matchup against Baltimore, a team that’s going to be trotting out 2 backup CBs (Anthony Averett and Chris Westry) against one of the most dominant WRs of the last half-decade.
Over the last 5 games, no team has given up more schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WR1s than the Ravens (+6.4). If we add that schedule-adjustment to Adams season-long FPG of 21.0, then we get 27.4 fantasy points — a mark that’s 8% better than Kupp’s season-long FPG (25.3).”
The Ravens’ struggles in the secondary are less good for Allen Lazard, but are very much attractive for Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Here’s Scott Barrett from the XFP Report on why MVS is in play to be a week-winner:
“CB Tavon Young has been excellent in the slot; Baltimore is giving up the 5th-fewest FPG to opposing slot WRs (10.5), That implies a much tougher matchup for Allen Lazard (20.9 fantasy points last week), and a laughably lopsided matchup for Adams on the outside.
The Ravens are also giving up the most FPG to opposing WRs on deep passes (13.6). That’s good news for Adams, who ranks 6th in receiving yards gained on deep targets, though we also shouldn’t forget about Marquez Valdes-Scantling who ranks 4th among all WRs in deep targets per game (2.4) and runs 71% of his routes from the outside. Over the last 4 weeks, and among all slate-eligible WRs, MVS ranks 17th in targets per game (8.0), 15th in XFP/G (15.1), and 21st in FPG (12.1).”
The Packers are also planning on having LT David Bakhtiari (knee) back at some point, and he returned to practice this week, but could just be getting his feet under him as the Packers make a playoff push.
Meanwhile, RB Aaron Jones missed practice on Thursday with a knee injury and illness. ones certainly made the most of his 8 touches on SNF as he turned in 65 scrimmage yards and two scores in the Packers win over the Bears. AJ Dillon ended up with 15 carries to Jones’ 5, but Packers’ beat Matt Schneidman noted that Jones was getting looked at by trainers after his final carry to start the fourth quarter. At that time, the Packers had a 38-27 lead and likely wanted to play it safe with Jones and allowed Dillon to close out the game. Still, even before Jones went to the sidelines, Dillon had 10 carries to Jones’ 4 while Jones was the primary passing down back as he ran 20 routes to Dillon’s 7 in the first three quarters. With the Packers favored, I think this is more of a Dillon game, especially if Jones isn’t 100%.
The Ravens don’t sound overly optimistic on the status of QB Lamar Jackson this week, as he tries to return from an ankle injury.
John Harbaugh said Lamar Jackson (ankle) still has a chance of playing despite not practicing this week. He said Jackson has been in all the meetings and will be evaluated before Sunday’s game against the Packers.— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 17, 2021
I have to give credit to Ravens’ backup QB Tyler Huntley, who has held his own when forced into extensive action this year. In a start against the Bears — which he prepared for — and a relief appearance against the Browns — which he didn’t — he’s completed over 70% of his passes, and has 13 rushes for 85 yards. He’s fumbled three times, which is a concern, but from a fantasy perspective, he’s viable on his own but has also pumped TE Mark Andrews with targets, which we love.
He also showed a great rapport with rookie Rashod Bateman last week.
Rashod Bateman says Tyler Huntley has proven the Ravens aren’t just a “one-man show. We’re a team.”— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) December 15, 2021
Sidenote: Lamar Jackson has always said it’s not all about him.
One guy who has been a savior for both the Ravens and fantasy teams — on the lower end — has been RB Devonta Freeman. He was a vultured TD from Latavius Murray away from a huge day against the Browns last week. Here’s Scott Barrett from Start/Sit:
“Don’t look now, but Devonta Freeman may still be a thing. He’s hit at least 12.0 fantasy points in 5 of his last 7 games. And since Week 9, he’s clearly been the team’s lead back. Over this span, he averages 14.5 carries, 4.7 targets, 75.0 YFS, 15.5 XFP/G, and 14.2 FPG, ranking top-20 in each stat. But over the last 2 weeks, he’s been upgraded to bell cow-status, handling 66% of the snaps, 88% of the carries (13.5 per game), and 88% of the targets out of the backfield (6.5 per game). In a perfectly neutral to slightly below average on-paper matchup, we like him as a mid-range RB2 this week.”
Playing more in Freeman’s favor, the Packers’ best run stopper — DT Kenny Clark — is on the COVID list.