The Cutup: Fixing the Jaguars Offense

NOTE: This was written mainly before the Travis Hunter injury, and has been updated for the latest news. I still wanted to leave the analysis in about Hunter’s potential (and theoretical) impact.

Cue the Bob the Builder intro! “Can we fix it?”

Yes. We. Can.

Let’s take the handy stats that the Fantasy Points Data Suite gives us and test them against the tape (what I am calling The Cutup).

I decided to put my hard hat on and see if I could fix the Jaguars' offense without any preconceived notions from the data and as it turns out, there’s a lot to like structurally, but it requires a touch-up.

Let’s get into the nuts and bolts of the offense, then discuss the players and their fantasy outlooks individually.

The Offense

Studs (Things I Like)

1. Mixing in under-center play-action alongside shotgun dropbacks (cheat code)

• 7.3 Under Center Play-Action Dropbacks / Game (6th)

2. Pre-snap (PS) & During-Snap (DS) motion (cheat code)

• 9.3 DS Motion Dropbacks / Game (T-4th)

• 25.1 PS or DS Motion Dropbacks / Game (2nd)

3. O-Line is giving enough time and creating space in the run game

• 2.28 YBCO/ATT (T-3rd)

• 0.22% Pressure Rate over Expected (3rd Best)

• Fantasy Points O-Line Guru Scott DiBendetto put them in the “Good” tier, with only two teams distinctly above them.

4. Receivers are getting open

• Dyami Brown = 33.3% Man Win Rate (7th among WRs)

• Travis Hunter = 33.3% Man Win Rate in Week 7 (now injured)

• Brian Thomas = 27.2% Man Win Rate (27th among WRs above Justin Jefferson & Ja’Marr Chase)

• Dyami Brown = 8th in ASS vs Zone amongst WRs

• Brenton Strange = 3rd in ASS vs Man amongst TEs

5. Fun play-design

• On this handoff to Tuten, they had Etienne in the backfield with Tuten in motion as a WR and had him at full speed getting a carry to the outside setting up an opportunity for a big play

TLDR: The bones are good — these are all things you want to see and can lead to many 30+ point outbursts from offenses. I see a lot of shades of the McShanahan offenses (motion, under-center play-action, WR runs, screens, etc.), which is a good thing!

Duds (Things I Dislike)

1. Drops from receivers

• 10.8% of pass attempts have been drops (most)

• 181 drop yards (most)

2. Offensive penalties — drive killers!

• Lead the NFL in drives with an offensive penalty

3. 3rd-and-Forever / 2-play drives

• Lead the league in drives with 3rd-and-10+, which they often forfeit and call a run, screen, or quick pass.

• Around 5 drives / game that have a 3rd-and-10+ (absurd!)

4. Deep ball accuracy and timing

• Trevor Lawrence has been bad on deep balls this year

5. A couple of throws into traffic per game that you’d like to have back

• We don’t yet have an official stat for this, but they’re a combo of hospital balls and turnover-worthy throws, which Trevor Lawrence needs to mitigate

TLDR: Drops and penalties get you behind the sticks and kill drives. These are fixable. I have faith in the coaching staff to fix this over the bye. But they lead to 3rd-and-long situations, which take away the potential for more fantasy (and real) scoring opportunities. There’s also a chance for some positive regression on the deep balls, which I’ll touch on later. The only thing we can’t count on is mitigating hospital balls / turnover-worthy throws, but there’s a lot to work with here.

The Players

Now, I’ll dive into the stats and film on the individual players to discuss fantasy outlooks.

Trevor Lawrence

Film: I already put a lot of my thoughts on X (see thread above), but Lawrence has the makings of a professional QB. Brett Whitefield talks about how guys come in and aren’t ready to be under center or throw over the middle, and that’s not a concern of mine with him. He has traits that make you excited — he shows the ability to make good reads, lots of zip to fit within tight spaces, the ability to escape pressure, and he steps up into the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield.

But, on the other hand, he also throws into double coverage, stares at his first read, and is missing deep too often. I have him ranked as an average NFL starter, with above-average to below-average in his range of outcomes. I left wanting more and thinking there has to be positive regression on Lawrence’s deep ball attempts. Also, he should pull it on read options more often to showcase his running ability and keep defenses honest. Weeks 1-6 were average to above average, and Week 7 was rough. I’m hoping the bye cleaned this up.

Fantasy: He’s not a fantasy QB1, which makes him a matchup-dependent option. The offensive environment can lead to 30-point games for the Jaguars, which could yield big performances from Lawrence — it will just be volatile. He’s a solid DFS play in the right environment when ownership is low. Theoretically, I can also see the Jaguars squeezing a few more rushing yards out of him per game to keep defenses honest on read option.

Brian Thomas Jr.

Film: I’m still seeing a great NFL WR on film in terms of separation and finding holes in the zone. The overall offensive cheat codes (under-center play action + motion) should be helping BTJ’s efficiency. However, he’s no longer the only apple of the team’s eye. The team is clearly designing plays for Travis Hunter and the other receivers more frequently than last year. Not to mention, BTJ has a ton of drops this year, which I’ve heard people attribute to his nagging shoulder injury. As an evaluator, I don’t hold drops against players unless there’s a long track record - random variance usually cleans that up. The timing on deep balls is also off, and that can get fixed quickly as well (see Trevor Lawrence's potential deep CPOE regression above). Fantasy: I still feel comfortable having Thomas as a WR2 (health permitting), even with the Travis Hunter injury. We have enough of a sample with Travis Hunter off the field in this offense to know it doesn’t drive a massive uptick in BTJ's production. It’s the Mike Evans role last season when Chris Godwin was out, with average QB play instead of higher-quality play. Eventually, those deep shots will connect, and the drops will get cleaned up by variance. He also had a 50+ yard TD called back from offensive offsides (not a false start), which I’ve actually never heard of. Thomas is a positive regression and buy-low candidate if you think he’s healthy.

Travis Hunter

Film: To start the season, I was really just seeing a player in more of a Wan’Dale Robinson type of role, which was discouraging. Most of Hunter’s routes were very close to the line of scrimmage or wind sprints. Week 7 was the obvious breakout, but the deployment started in Week 6. He started to run more intermediate routes, which I was encouraged by, since that is the sign of a real receiver rather than a specialist. You can see the game-breaking athleticism on plays like this and improvement in route running. He’s really good at making plays with his hands at the catch point and legs after the catch. He still needs to improve at route running, but he’s made improvements with more reps week to week.

Pre-Injury Fantasy: I know there are whispers of Hunter being the featured receiver moving forward, but the film didn’t show me enough for him to ascend to WR1 status just yet. He did look markedly better in Week 7, but the eye test isn’t matching the oozing hype we are all dreaming about just yet. He can get there by the end of the season because he’s a freak athlete, but I am not betting on it. I see him more as a WR3/Flex who will boom and bust on a big YAC play or a highlight-reel catch. For dynasty, if the price is cheap, I’d definitely buy — guys who move like him usually get there, he just needs more time.

Post-Injury Fantasy: Most of everything above still exists for when he returns. I still consider him a strong dynasty buy, especially right now, while people are spooked about the injury narrative. In redraft, I can’t see a way you feel confident playing him the next time he touches the field, which means Week 13 is the earliest you’re putting him in (given IR games + one prove-it game), and that’s even if he returns at all this year. Even then, I’m expecting the above write-up and maybe slightly worse, given he needs reps to improve route-running. He’s a drop or IR stash for me in redraft.

Travis Etienne

Film: Etienne an average NFL starting running back boosted by the Liam Coen scheme. He often gets what’s blocked and sometimes bounces outside or doesn’t see cutback lanes. There are definitely some highlight reel plays where he jukes a guy out downfield — I see this more when he’s at full speed, which isn’t frequent because it’s hard to be in that much space, but he’s capable. He’s benefitted from large holes that spring big plays and skew his numbers quite a bit on the season (see above). He’s a solid pass catcher and decent in the screen game.

Fantasy: He’s a totally adequate starting RB in the NFL. He benefits from a good O-Line, just like many RBs have in the past. I could see him lose his job over the next few weeks because Bhayshul Tuten is a better fit for the zone-blocking scheme. If Etienne remains in the lead role with 65%+ work, he’s a high-end RB2 because this offense should get on track, and the O-Line is good. I don’t expect him to keep the opportunity share by the fantasy playoffs.

Bhayshul Tuten

Film: Tuten’s vision, patience, and ability to press the line of scrimmage on zone rushing concepts is really good. He also has strong tackle-breaking abilities, as seen in his MTF/ATT numbers above. Coaches also love players who limit negative plays / have strong success rates, which is another box Tuten checks. I am confident this is a really good NFL RB and the RB of the future for the Jaguars — he fits the scheme really well.

Fantasy: If people are selling, I am buying all of the shares and would prioritize Tuten on my bench as a potential league-winner. He’s shown the quick twitch to break tackles and is a great scheme fit. This just boils down to opportunity for Tuten. Some people point out that he has yet to have a run over 10 yards, and to them I personally guarantee he will have one in his next 27 rush attempts. I would also put in a strong buy recommendation for dynasty. If Tuten takes the exact role that Etienne has, he will be a back-end RB1 with upside.

The Fix

This Jacksonville offense is at its best when the Jags use their running game to setup their passing game and stay balanced. In Weeks 6 and 7, Coen’s offense got away from that in neutral situations. Trevor Lawrence is not capable of consistently leading this team to big scoring outbursts — his accuracy and decision-making lead to volatile play, so staying balanced mitigates the volatility. When they are in the run game, I’d also like to see this Jaguars offense go under center more often, similar to the Rams, because it takes away directional probability of where your run plays are going. From there you’re able to continually have an effective play-action attack.

Then it’s the little things for this team that we know can be volatile. It comes back to mental preparation and coaching, namely penalties and drops. This team has the potential to be an upper echelon offense. Let’s see how they attack it out of the bye week, even with the bummer Hunter news.