Seattle Seahawks (3-7, 5-5 ATS) at Washington Football Team (4-6, 3-7), 8:15 p.m., MNF
Brolley’s Seahawks Stats and Trends
Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.
The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
Seattle has played under the total in eight straight games.
We’re in the final days of the Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll-led Seahawks after yet another pathetic performance effectively knocked them out of playoff contention. The Seahawks have scored just one touchdown since Wilson returned to the lineup in Week 10, and he’s completing just 51.5% of his passes for 368 scoreless yards and two INTs in that span. Wilson will look to snap the first three-game losing streak of his 10-year career against Washington this week. Washington is giving up by far the most FPG (24.7) to QBs this season after Cam Newton went for 26.2 FP in his first start of the season.
D.K. Metcalf has had a miserable time in his first two games since Russ returned to the lineup, securing just seven of his 16 targets for 57 scoreless yards. He had scored 11+ FP in each of his first eight games with eight TDs before running dry the last two weeks. Mike Evans posted 2/62/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, and Washington is giving up the third-most receiving TDs per game (1.3) to WRs.
Tyler Lockett survived last week with 4/115 receiving on five targets, and he continues to be an all-or-nothing option this season. He has four performances with 100+ receiving yards and five contests with 35 or fewer yards. Chris Godwin posted 7/57 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, and Washington is giving up the fourth-most receiving yards per game (181.7) to WRs this season.
Gerald Everett had season-best 14.3 FP against the Packers in Week 10, and he backed it up with a solid 3/37 receiving on four targets against the Cardinal in Week 11 — he also just missed a TD. Everett now owns double-digit FP in three of his five games played with Wilson this season. Washington is giving up the 16th-fewest FPG (12.8) to TEs this season.
Seattle’s backfield is a fantasy dumpster fire with Rashaad Penny (hamstring) once again joining Chris Carson (neck) on the injured reserve. Alex Collins led the group with 10/36 rushing on 37% snap share last week, while DeeJay Dallas managed 4/25/1 rushing on a 37% share. Travis Homer will also mix in more after seeing just one opportunity and a 10% snap share against the Cardinals. Washington is giving up the third-fewest rushing yards per game (69.5) and just 3.7 YPC to RBs this season.
Brolley’s Washington Stats and Trends
The Football Team is playing their best football of the season with two consecutive outright and ATS wins out of their Week 9 bye — they opened the year with just one cover in their first eight contests.
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
The Football Team is 4-1 toward unders in their last five games.
Washington came out of their Week 9 bye determined to feed Antonio Gibson, and they’ve done just that with two good gamescripts to do it in. Gibson posted season-highs in carries (24) and FP (21.8) against the Buccaneers in Week 10, and he backed it up with another 19 carries for 95 yards in the victory over the Panthers. He failed to score a touchdown and he didn’t catch a pass for the first time this season, but it was still positive that OC Scott Turner force-fed him the rock even after he was benched for the entire second quarter for losing his third fumble of the season. Gibson averaged 5.0 YPC for the first time since he suffered his stress fracture in his shin around Week 3, and he sits sixth in the league with 11 carries inside the five-yard line. James Conner (26/99/1 scrimmage) and A.J. Dillon (23/128/2) have each gone for 20+ FP against the Seahawks since they came out of their bye.
J.D. McKissic had his run of 4+ catches in four straight games snapped last week, but he did have a season-high 46 rushing yards with Gibson getting benched for a quarter. He’s managed just 13.9 FP in two tight games out of their bye, and Washington enters as short home favorites this week so this isn’t the best potential gamescript for him. The Seahawks are at least giving up the most receiving yards per game (72.6) and the fourth-most catches per game (7.0) to RBs.
Taylor Heinicke had cooled off since he threw for multiple TDs in his first three starts in Weeks 2-4, failing to throw 2+ TD passes in five straight games. He finally did it again in Week 11, completing 16/22 passes for 206 yards and three TDs against the Panthers — he added 6/29 rushing for 23.1 FP. Colt McCoy threw for 328 yards and two TDs for 22.9 FP against the Seahawks last week.
Terry McLaurin hung 5/103/1 receiving on seven targets against the Panthers for his fourth performance of the year with 100+ yards, 1+ TDs, and 20+ FP. He’s also had three performances with fewer than nine FP since Week 5, but he still ranks fifth in the league with a 30% target share. The Seahawks limited Davante Adams to 7/78 receiving on 11 targets two weeks, and they haven’t allowed an opposing WR to reach 20+ FP since Robert Woods did it in Week 5.
DeAndre Carter is running hot in the touchdown department, finding paydirt in three straight games to help him score 9.9+ FP in three straight games. He’ll lose some juice this week if Logan Thomas or Curtis Samuel is able to return this week, and Seattle is giving up the fourth-fewest receiving TDs per game (.7) to WRs this season.
Logan Thomas was initially given a four-week timeline to recover from his Week 4 hamstring injury, but it looks like he’ll finally return to the lineup this week. Thomas posted 9.5+ FP in each of his first three games and he ran a route on 93% of Washington’s dropbacks. Zach Ertz ripped the Seahawks for 8/88/2 receiving last week, and Seattle is now giving up the eighth-most FPG (14.6) to TEs.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 28 (19th)
Plays per game: 60.4 (31st)
Pass: 60.2% (16th) | Run: 39.8% (17th)
Pace: 28.2 (21st)
Plays per game: 71.4 (3rd)
Pass: 58.1% (24th) | Run: 41.9% (9th)
All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.
Seattle came out and threw the ball much more than I expected back in Week 10 when Russell Wilson returned against the Packers. The Seahawks went 70% pass-heavy on early downs in that game, which was the second-highest rate on the week. Keep in mind, Seattle was still down just 3-0 heading into the fourth quarter against Green Bay so they wanted to come out and chuck it. Unfortunately, HC Pete Carroll was adamant after their loss to the Packers that they needed to run the ball more. Well, he got his wish! Seattle was far more balanced on early downs (56% pass | 46% run) last week against Arizona and that was a large part of the reason their offense failed to sustain drives. Sure, Wilson is playing far below his usual standards, but they have to run this offense through him because you’re not going to win anything by letting Alex Collins grind for 3.6 YPC. Seattle ran a pitiful 49 plays of offense last week after running just 59 plays in Week 10. The league-average is 67 plays/game. Their significantly low play volume absolutely nukes the upside of this offense.
Meanwhile, OC Scott Turner has shifted his philosophy from fast-paced to a much more methodical one. Washington was the third-fastest offense in pace last year and came out playing quick this season, but have since sunk to 21st over their last eight games. In fact, Washington is playing extremely slow no matter the game situation – they are even the seventh-slowest attack when trailing. Between Seattle’s struggles and Washington’s pace, this MNF game is short on fantasy appeal.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
Russell Wilson simply hasn’t been the same player since rejoining the lineup. Yes, Tyler Lockett registered much of the passing offense in Week 11 against the Cardinals. But I’m going to be on him for other reasons. Washington is giving up the 10th-most FP/CS and completions on throws of 20-or-more yards with play action. And Rocket is clearing 38% of his FPG average on play action. In addition, DK Metcalf will be dealing with the coverage of William Jackson III on Sunday. In the two games since returning to the lineup from a sore knee, WJ3 has only allowed a 5/37/1 combined line on 64 snaps in coverage.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
Washington has come out of the bye hot, winning two games against a Super Bowl contender (Tampa) and a playoff contender (Carolina). Victories are often good game scripts for running backs, and Team RB Antonio Gibson has had them, and also might be a little bit healthier having had the full week of rest in Week 9.
Graham likes him quite a bit this week. From Start/Sit:
“Gibson has gotten two back-to-back ideal game-scripts out of Washington’s bye and has been loaded up with 24 and 19 carries as a result. Gibson didn’t get into the box last week, but he ran hard and made some nice quick cuts en route to the best single-game YPC (5.0) he’s had since Week 2. Gibson looks as healthy as he’s been all year, which is perfect timing because now he’s catching a Seahawks run defense that is giving up the seventh-most YPG to RBs (108.8) and has allowed over 20 FP to four of the last 5 lead RBs they’ve faced (Harris, Kamara, Dillon, and Conner). Plus, this should be another good game-script with the markets viewing Seattle-Washington as a pick ‘em.”
That’s not even mentioning that Gibson likely would have had 25+ carries if he didn’t get benched for the majority of the second quarter because of a fumble.
While we have to give Taylor Heinicke some credit for playing pretty well overall this year, it sure says something about the Seahawks that I prefer Heinicke straight up to Russell Wilson for fantasy in this contest. And so does Jake Tribbey. From Streamers:
“There are volatile QBs, and then there is Taylor Heinicke. In his 9 full games this season, Heinicke is averaging 17.6 FPG, and impressively, has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in over 50% of those games (5 times), but failed to score more than 10.0 fantasy points another two times (22%). Still, his floor isn’t as low as that may make it seem, as Henicke is averaging 3.5 rushing FPG - a top-10 mark among QBs.”
Heinicke also could get a boost in his receiving corps. While Terry McLaurin is an obvious stud, while Curtis Samuel (groin) and TE Logan Thomas (hamstring) both returned to practice this week. Thomas, in particular, interests me, because the Team utilizes its tight ends extensively — Thomas, Ricky Seals-Jones (who has a hip injury), and John Bates have all played a massive role when starting at the position.
As for Wilson… Graham is scared away, just like me. From Start/Sit:
“After missing five weeks with a badly broken finger, Wilson’s poor performance in his return against the Packers was somewhat excusable. Maybe he just needed an extra week to get back into the groove? Nope. Seattle came out flat and stayed flat at home against a Cardinals team missing Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. Offensively, Seattle’s performance was absolutely putrid. Outside of a 48-yard gain to Tyler Lockett on an extended play late in the first-half, the Sehawks had no explosive element in their offense this past week as Wilson completed just 14-of-26 passes for 207 yards and 0 TDs. Seattle simply couldn’t sustain any offense against Arizona and ended up running just 49 total plays while possessing the ball for a pitiful 19:38 of game-clock. The good news is that Seattle gets a Washington defense that has struggled all year next up, but Wilson is extremely difficult to trust. We have Wilson buried at QB15 in our projections and like streamer types Jimmy Garoppolo and Cam Newton better.”
Why is this offense so hard to trust despite its talent at receiver? Well, the Seahawks play volume continues to be pitiful. They’ve run just 550 total plays this season, which is lowest in the league by far and 200 (!!) shy of the Chiefs.
the seahawks have run 550 plays this year, which is the fewest by any team by a full 40 plays. the chiefs have run more than 200 more plays than the seahawks— Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) November 23, 2021
And since returning, Wilson leads all QBs in average depth of target (11.0 yards downfield)… but is dead last in on-target throws (57.1%) per SIS. So… Wilson isn’t throwing it a lot. But when he does throw it, it’s a low-percentage throw. And he isn’t throwing the low-percentage throws accurately. That isn’t good!