Week 12 Game Hub: PHI-NYG

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Week 12 Game Hub: PHI-NYG

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6, 6-5 ATS) at New York Giants (3-7, 5-5), 1 p.m.

Brolley’s Eagles Stats and Trends

  • The Eagles have won and covered in three of their last four games.

  • Philly is 4-1 toward overs in its last five games.

  • HC Nick Sirianni earned his first home victory in his fifth try, and his team is on their first winning streak of the season with their third multi-score victory in the last four weeks.

  • The Eagles have outrushed their opponents over the last four games by a staggering margin of 129.8 yards. Miles Sanders stepped back into the lineup and posted season-highs in carries (16) and rushing yards (94), but he’s still looking for that elusive first touchdown. He was benched for a spell after fumbling, and Jordan Howard was used as the 1B runner behind Sanders, racking up 10/63 rushing before a knee injury knocked him out of the game in the third quarter and for this week. Boston Scott stepped up behind Howard and posted 6/16 rushing and 2/2 receiving on a 37% snap share. The Giants are giving up a generous 4.5 YPC and the fifth-most FPG (27.1) to RBs this season.

  • Jalen Hurts is coming off his best fantasy game of the season despite throwing for fewer than 180 yards for the fourth straight game. He ran a season-high 18 times for 69 yards with three rushing TDs against the Saints, and he’s now the QB5 with 23.1 FPG. Since the Eagles have gone run-heavy over the last four games, Hurts has only one more completion (49) than he does rushing attempts (48). The Giants have yet to be tested by a mobile QB, and they’re giving up the 11th-most rushing yards per game (119.7) overall

  • DeVonta Smith sits 11th in the league with a 29% target share over the last five weeks since the Eagles shipped Zach Ertz to the desert. He’s posted 4+ catches and 60+ yards in four of his five games in that span. The Giants are conceding the fifth-most catches per game (14.0) to WRs this season with both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans catching six passes last week.

  • Dallas Goedert quickly recovered from his concussion in Week 10 to hang 5/62 receiving on a season-high eight targets. Even with a missed half of action in Week 10, Goedert owns a 27% target share over the last five weeks with Zach Ertz out of the picture. The Giants have been roughed up by Rob Gronkowski (6/71 receiving) and Darren Waller (7/92) in their last two games.

Brolley’s Giants Stats and Trends

  • The Eagles and Giants split their season series last season, and New York covered both games as five-point underdogs in each contest.

  • The Giants had their three-game ATS win streak snapped last week.

  • New York is 9-1-1 toward unders in its last 11 home games.

  • The Giants have played under the total in four consecutive games.

  • New York’s only offensive touchdown came from LT Andrew Thomas last week, even with their offense mostly intact for the first time awhile. The Giants’ offense is reeling and they set Jason Garrett free after that dismal performance. Daniel Jones completed 23/38 passes for just 167 yard (4.4 YPA), one TD, and two ugly INTs in the loss as the Giants averaged just 4.0 yards per play. Jones has now fallen below 245 passing yards in six straight games with just five TDs in that span. The Eagles have given up 20+ FP three times to QBs in the last five weeks and fewer than 10 FP in their other two games in that span.

  • Kadarius Toney is the only somewhat usable WR in New York’s receiving corps right now, and even that is a stretch with a four-man rotation potentially coming this week. He needed 12 targets to get to 11 FP (7/40 receiving) last week on a 60% snap share, which was actually his best mark since Week 4. Sterling Shepard (quad) could return this week, which would push Toney to the outside for more snaps. Shepard has been active when in the lineup, averaging 6.4/64.8/.2 receiving on 8.6 targets per game. Kenny Golladay is going down as a colossal bust for the second straight season. He hasn’t been fantasy-relevant since Week 4, as he’s missed three games for a knee injury and he has a combined 7.0 FP in his other three games in that span. Darius Slayton will also be in the mix as the fourth receiver after posting 4/37 receiving on seven targets on a 59% snap share against Tampa Bay last week. The Eagles are giving up the second-fewest receiving yards per game (125.5) and the second-fewest FPG (28.7) to WRs this season.

  • Evan Engram went back to being a disappointment with the rest of the offense, hanging just 2/12 receiving on five targets. It snapped a three-game run with double-digit FP in Weeks 7-9. The Eagles have been the friendliest matchup for TEs (19.8 FPG) with nine different TEs reaching double-digit FP in the last six games.

  • The Giants, purposefully or not, eased Saquon Barkley back into the mix last week in his first action since he rolled his ankle in Week 5. He finished with just 6/25 rushing and 6/31 receiving on a 62% snap share, and he conceded playing time to Devontae Booker late in the game with the Giants trailing by three scores. Barkley admitted after the game that his body wasn’t quite in sync in his first game action in six weeks. The Eagles are giving up the eighth-most FPG (26.7) to RBs, and Mark Ingram went for 22/113 scrimmage against them last week.

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

Eagles

Pace (seconds in between plays): 26.9 (5th)

Plays per game: 66.0 (17th)

Pass: 49.2% (32nd) | Run: 50.8% (1st)

Giants

Pace: 27.3 (8th)

Plays per game: 64.9 (24th)

Pass: 65.0% (7th) | Run: 35.0% (26th)

All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.

Pace Points

I love when team’s do something different from the status quo and are damn good at it. The Eagles are now carrying the mantle for the 2018-20 Ravens as the most run-heavy team in the league while absolutely dominating every single defense in their path. After dropping 40 points on the Saints last week, the Eagles are now scoring on a league-high 58% of their possessions over the last month. With their change in offensive philosophy over the last month, the Eagles have gone a ridiculous 72% run-heavy on early downs in their last four games and the next closest team in early down run rate in this span is the Patriots (61%). As a result, we’ve seen the Eagles RB group average a whopping 30.8 carries per game since they started this new approach. Miles Sanders has legitimate league-winning upside, but that’s only if he can hold onto the rock.

Well, the Giants finally did it. It only took Joe Judge 26 games to figure out that the game had passed Jason Garrett by. Our old friend Freddie Kitchens will be calling plays for the Giants for the foreseeable future. After watching the Giants stumble from play to play with no semblance of direction for the last two years, it can’t get any worse – right? Right….?

Huber’s Key Matchup Notes

The Giants have defended QBs very well this season. Not only that, they’ve limited the position to only 2.31 FPG on the ground (10th-fewest). Since Week 7, QBs have only averaged 12.4 FPG. Adoree’ Jackson has been one of the top corners all season and James Bradberry has overcome a rough start. New York’s defense has paid particular attention toward preventing long gains. NYG has held opponents to the seventh-lowest completion rate on throws of 20-or-more yards (11.8%) and to the lowest rate of 20-plus yard runs (0.73%). Why would we ever even consider wagering against these data points?

Jalen Hurts may be best classified within a category all to himself. Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson are absolutely worthy of being listed right alongside Hurts as the top-three “leg” threats in the NFL. Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor can run, but have strict upside caps at this stage in their careers. Justin Fields will be in contention one day. Tannehill and Josh Allen can easily tap into that part of their games. But they gain most of their production while scrambling from a collapsing pocket. So what sets Hurts apart from Murray and LJax? For one, NFL experience. Hurts doesn’t have it. And Hurts is unique in that he’s managed to maintain his elite fantasy status while only excelling against a single coverage scheme. It just so happens that’s the scheme the Giants play the most!

Giant WR Darius Slayton faced off with Eagle CB Darius Slay in two games last season. He averaged a 3/47/0 line for 7.7 FPG. And it was a season when Slayton was featured with a much larger share of the targets.

In four games this season when he’s seen at least a 19% target share — including 21% in Week 11, Slayton has averaged only 10.2 FPG. Philadelphia is only providing opposing WR units the third-fewest FPG this season (28.7). It’s really a shame that Slayton hasn’t provided utility this season.

Dolan’s Vantage Points

We all know how effective the Eagles’ offense has been of late, and its transformation has been utterly staggering.

This is what I tweeted on October 12:

And this is a tweet from this week:

Now, of course, while the Eagles’ RBs have been a huge part of their attack the last month, their run game wouldn’t be as effective without their special offensive line and QB Jalen Hurts. And Hurts’ play in the Eagles’ newfangled offense has been good enough that Eagle fans — ready to bail just a month ago — are wondering if they should use their league-best draft capital to build around Hurts, not replace him.

Here’s Graham from Stat-Pack on Hurts and the Eagles offense:

  • With their change in offensive philosophy over the last month, the Eagles have gone a ridiculous 72% run-heavy on early downs in their last four games.

  • The next closest team in early down run rate in this span is the Patriots (61%).

  • The Eagles run game has been highly efficient, too. They’re averaging 4.9 YPC and a 54% success rate on early down runs.

  • For reference, their 4.9 YPC ranks fourth-best behind only the Colts (6.2 YPC), Browns (5.3), and Chargers (5.2). Also, Jonathan Taylor isn’t human.

  • Jalen Hurts has obviously been an integral part of the Eagles running game and is now averaging 12 carries and 64.3 yards per game over their last four outings.

  • Hurts is only throwing the ball 19.5 times per game over the last month, but he’s still finished as a top-12 scoring QB in three-straight game thanks to his legs.

  • The other thing that the Eagles have changed up offensively is they’ve stopped throwing it to their bad players. Jalen Hurts has thrown it 78 times in their last four games and Dallas Goedert (31% target share) and DeVonta Smith (28%) have seen 44 targets combined.

I think Benjamin Solak raises some good points above, including that Hurts is now winning games because he’s being asked to do less as a passer, and that is likely not sustainable. But the Eagles are also perilously thin at receiver beyond Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith. So they’ll keep running it, against the Giants’ 30th-ranked rush defense by FootballOutsiders DVOA.

With Jordan Howard (knee) out, the Eagles’ lead back will once again be Miles Sanders. While Sanders returned to the fold for Philly in Week 11 and led them in rushing in an absolutely dominant offensive performance against the Saints’ top run defense, his career-long problems with ball security popped up. He fumbled once inside his own red zone, setting up the Saints’ only touchdown before garbage time, and a generous whistle for stopped forward progress prevented another fumble on his own doorstep. But overall, he managed 16/94 rushing, while pacing the Eagles’ backs in snaps. The Eagles likely have no choice but to keep feeding Miles and hope he hangs onto the ball. If not, the Giants know well about Boston Scott, who averages 23.3 FPG in four games against the Giants and 5.9 FPG in 26 games against all other opponents.

The Giants were such an unmitigated disaster that they fired OC Jason Garrett on a short week after playing Monday night, with the team embarrassed on national television against the Bucs.

Apparently Freddie Kitchens will call the plays for the Giants, but HC Joe Judge is trying to create a competitive advantage by not announcing it. Seriously.

One thing the Eagles’ defense has done more of late under DC Jonathan Gannon is send more blitzes — and QB Daniel Jones has been highly ineffective against extra rushers. On 75 dropbacks against 5 or more pass rushers, Jones has just 1 TD to 2 INT, has a QB rating of just 76.1, and has been pressured on a staggering 57.8% of extra-rusher dropbacks, highest in the NFL (SIS).

The Giants remain thin at skill positions because of injury — WRs Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard are both dealing with quad injuries and likely will not play, while TE Kyle Rudolph has a foot injury. Meanwhile, Eagles CB Darius Slay has been playing at an All-Pro level, which is bad news for his former Detroit teammate Kenny Golladay (who had just 2 targets last week) and Darius Slayton.

The Giants’ best offense in this game, if Toney and Shepard can’t go as expected, might be checkdowns to Saquon Barkley. It’s brutal out there.

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