It’s crunch time! We are only 3-4 weeks away from the fantasy playoffs ramping up as we roll into Thanksgiving week.
Here’s your Stat-Pack to help with some of those lineup decisions this week.
Bye week teams (Broncos, Rams) were not included.
In the three games that Chase Edmonds has missed, James Conner has averaged 21.6 touches and 112 scrimmage yards for 25.5 fantasy points per game.
Conner has played on 80% of Arizona’s snaps in this span – the fourth highest rate among RBs.
Rondale Moore got 11 targets (and turned it into 11/51 receiving) against Seattle, but his overall snap share didn’t change. Moore was on the field for just 39% of the snaps in Week 11.
Moore is the second player since the 1970s merger to have at least 10 receptions in a game, but turn them into less than 55 receiving yards. The other was Cris Carter back in 2001 (he had 10/46/1).
Zach Ertz is officially a full-time player and has run a route on 86% of the pass plays over the last two weeks. For perspective, Ertz’s involvement rate is higher than Travis Kelce’s (85%) over the full season. Ertz could be a huge part of championship pushes with Kyler Murray back.
If you need any more evidence that Mike Davis is dead, look no further. Falcons RB snaps in Week 11 without Cordarrelle Patterson were: Davis (48%) and Qadree Ollison (48%).
Kyle Pitts’ roller coaster season continued after getting shut down by the Patriots for 3/29 on six targets.
Outside of the two games against the Jets (26.9 FP) and Dolphins (23.3 FP) in Weeks 5 and 7, Pitts is averaging just 3.4 receptions, 44.1 yards, and 7.8 fantasy points per game in his eight other outings.
The Ravens went with a two-man rotation at RB with Latavius Murray back this week as Devonta Freeman (58% snap share | 24 touches) led the way followed by Murray (37% snaps | 11 touches).
It seems like the Ravens are finally content just letting Freeman be their lead back. Over the last three weeks, he’s averaged 13 carries and 3.7 receptions per game.
Matt Breida’s usage from last week wasn’t a fluke. Buffalo went with a gross 3-man rotation in Week 11 as Singletary led the way in snaps (38%) followed by Breida (32%) and Moss (29%).
RB routes run were: Singletary (16), Moss (11), Breida (11). Disgusting.
Cole Beasley was still somewhat limited with his ribs injury. He was on the field for 69% of the pass plays.
I was wondering if the Panthers would ever let Christian McCaffrey start playing all of the snaps again given all of his injury issues over the last two years (and hoping they wouldn’t go back to that plan). Nope!
CMC was on the field for 90% of the Panthers plays in Week 11, a season-high.
If we remove the game that he got hurt (Week 3) and his first game back from injury (Week 9), CMC has finished as the RB1, RB3, RB4, and RB3 in his four true full games.
The Panthers passing attack was pretty conservative overall in Cam Newton’s first start. His average depth of target was just 5.6 yards downfield and just two of his 27 passes traveled 15+ yards in air.
Cam’s target distribution was locked in on their three best players: CMC (30% target share), DJ Moore (26%), and Robby Anderson (22%).
David Montgomery has the best role going among RBs right now. He’s played on 90% of the snaps and handled 84% of the RB carries since returning in Week 9.
After Khalil Herbert looked great and with Montgomery coming off a knee injury, wouldn’t it make sense to give him a little rest?
Jimmy Graham (3) got more targets than Cole Kmet in Week 11. Make it make sense.
Andy Dalton threw 23 passes in relief of Justin Fields. 10 of those 23 passes were directed at Darnell Mooney (43% target share).
Tee Higgins has yet to eclipse 15 FP in any game since he returned from injury in Week 5.
Higgins scored over 15 FP in 6-of-14 full games last year.
Joe Mixon has now scored at least once in seven-straight games and has 10 total TDs in this span.
After putting up 20+ FP in four of his last 5 outings, Mixon is now the RB8 in FPG in both PPR and Half PPR scoring.
Nick Chubb is averaging 121.9 scrimmage yards per game in 11 career starts without Kareem Hunt.
With Donovan Peoples-Jones out, Anthony Schwartz out, and Jarvis Landry (knee) banged up – the Browns elevated practice squader Ja’Marcus Bradley and he led them in routes with Rashard Higgins (29).
Cowboys’ WR / TE routes run in the second-half after CeeDee Lamb (concussion) left the game: Gallup (23), Schultz (22), Noah Brown (21), Cedrick Wilson (21), and Malik Turner (8).
Ezekiel Elliott has been extremely game-script dependent this season. He’s averaged 10.8 FPG in losses and 20.7 FPG in wins.
Check out how crazy these splits are. Dallas’ offense has been completely different with Tyron Smith healthy:
The Lions only managed 48 plays of offense last week.
Tim Boyle’s average depth of target was only 4.7 yards downfield in his first start.
Amazingly, just 61% of Boyle’s throws were on-target per SIS. So not only was he throwing it short, he was throwing it inaccurately short. Great combo!
In his first game since Week 7, Jamaal Williams played on a season-low 27% of the team’s snaps.
Lions routes run in Week 11: Josh Reynolds (24), Amon-Ra St. Brown (23), TJ Hockenson (23), D’Andre Swift (20), and Kalif Raymond (20) – out of 25 pass plays.
Green Bay Packers
In his first start with Aaron Jones sidelined, A.J. Dillon played on 75% of the snaps and was on the field for 31-of-41 pass plays.
The Packers trusted Dillon with a huge role in the passing game as he stayed in to pass block 10 times and caught all six of his targets for 46 yards.
Not that it really matters, but Josiah Deguara’s role is growing with Robert Tonyan out for the season. He ran a season-high 18 routes last week.
Tyrod Taylor only needed to throw it 24 times to beat the Titans, but he targeted eight different receivers. Chris Conley (5 targets) led the team in looks. Not great!
Rex Burkhead had seven carries coming into Week 11. He got 18 (!!) against the Titans. This is the most dismal team for fantasy that I can remember.
Jonathan Taylor is on a heater for the ages. He’s finished as the RB2, RB3, RB5, RB6, RB2, RB5, and RB1 over his last seven games.
After his 53.4 FP bomb against the Bills, JT is averaging 29.3 FPG since Week 4.
Just for some perspective, Christian McCaffrey is averaging 28.4 FPG over his last 24 fully healthy games dating back to 2019.
With JT running hotter than the sun, Carson Wentz has been more of a game-manager and has now been at 30 or fewer pass attempts in four of his last 6 games.
As a result, Michael Pittman’s volume has fallen off. Pittman is averaging just 6.3 targets per game over his last six outings after getting 8.6 targets/game in Weeks 1-5.
Pittman has been held to six or fewer targets five times in his last 6 games.
- This offense is just pitiful. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t thrown a TD since Week 8 and he’s completed 54.6% of his throws for 5.1 YPA and 146 YPG over his last three games. Get Urban Meyer out of Duval ASAP.
Kansas City Chiefs
One good game against the Raiders wasn’t enough to turn around this Chiefs offense. Patrick Mahomes’ passer rating fell back down to 71.9 in their win over the Cowboys as their offense was very mediocre overall.
Kansas City scored on their first three drives, but then managed just a field goal on their final 10 possessions vs. Dallas.
Mahomes has finished as the QB22, QB17, QB19, and QB27 in four of his last five games. He was QB1 vs. the Raiders in Week 10.
The good news is that Mahomes is only throwing to the two receivers we care about. On his 37 throws, Mahomes targeted Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill a combined 19 times (for a combined 51% target share).
Darrel Williams actually out-snapped Clyde Edwards-Helaire (53% to 47%) and ran more routes than him (25 to 16), but CEH led the way in carries (12 to 5).
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders offense might be falling apart, but at least Darren Waller is producing! He’s led the team in receiving yards twice in his last three games after doing so once all year (back in Week 1).
In the three games since their bye, the Raiders offense has struggled to cash in after they’ve put just 16 (vs. Giants), 14 (vs. Chiefs), and 13 (vs. Bengals) on the board in three-straight losses.
Here’s the thing, though: They’re moving the ball well! In fact, Vegas is gaining 7.9 yards per play on early-down, non-red-zone plays over the last three weeks – which is tops in the league.
The Raiders’ issues have started in the red-zone. They’ve scored a TD on just three of their 10 red-zone possessions over the last three weeks.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler has one of the best floor / ceiling combinations in fantasy right now. In 18 career starts with Justin Herbert, Ekeler has finished as the RB25 or better 15 times and as the RB10 or better eight times.
Ekeler is averaging 20.9 FPG and has double-digit FP in all but one game with Herbert under center.
The one thing Ekeler was missing in previous years was TD upside and he certainly has that in spades right now. Ekeler has gotten 20 opportunities (carries + targets) inside of the 10-yard line, which is third-most among RBs and trails only Jonathan Taylor (31) and Dalvin Cook (21).
With Salvon Ahmed (healthy scratch) out, Myles Gaskin set season-highs in carries (23) and snaps (74%).
Jaylen Waddle with DeVante Parker (5 games) – 11.8 FPG.
Waddle without Parker (6 games) – 16.3 FPG.
Waddle also has huge splits in terms of where he sees his targets with Tua Tagovailoa.
In the six games that Tua has played half of the snaps, Waddle’s aDOT is a respectable 9.7 yards.
With Jacoby Brissett, Waddle’s aDOT falls to 5.0 yards.
Justin Jefferson has compiled 2,338 yards across his first 26 starts, which is second-most all-time to only Odell Beckham (2,701) – (H/T Hayden Winks).
Dalvin Cook’s usage in the passing game fell off there for a bit in Weeks 2-8 (he had just 6 receptions in four games) but has since rebounded. Cook has 12 targets and exactly three catches in three-straight games.
Still, Cook is averaging a career-lows in YPG (17.8) and YPR (6.6). His previous low was back in his rookie year (22.5 YPG).
New England Patriots
The Patriots went with a full-blown three-man committee in a game they dominated vs. the Falcons last week: Harris (39% snaps), Stevenson (34%), Bolden (27%).
Bolden (11) led the way in routes followed by Harris (8) and Stevenson (6).
New England ran just seven plays in the red-zone in Week 11, but those snaps were split too. Harris and Stevenson got 3 snaps apiece while Bolden got 1.
New Orleans Saints
Over the last two weeks with Alvin Kamara sidelined, Mark Ingram has handled 79% of the snaps and 85% of the RB opportunities (carries + targets).
Tony Jones played just 10 snaps in his return off of IR last week.
New York Giants
The Giants came out of their bye and schemed up 12 targets for Kadarius Toney and just 2 for Kenny Golladay.
In his return, Saquon Barkley played on 62% of the Giants' snaps and ran a route on 48% of the pass plays.
Over his last three full games, Barkley has 17/148/1 (on 19 targets) receiving.
New York Jets
The Jets finally saw the light this week as Elijah Moore absolutely shredded the Dolphins for 8/141/1 on a team-high 11 targets.
Moore ran a route on 85% of the team’s passing plays, which tied his season-high from back in Week 1.
After Michael Carter left the game, Ty Johnson led the way in snaps (15) over Tevin Coleman (11).
With their change in offensive philosophy over the last month, the Eagles have gone a ridiculous 72% run-heavy on early downs in their last four games.
The next closest team in early down run rate in this span is the Patriots (61%).
The Eagles run game has been highly efficient, too. They’re averaging 4.9 YPC and a 54% success rate on early down runs.
For reference, their 4.9 YPC ranks fourth-best behind only the Colts (6.2 YPC), Browns (5.3), and Chargers (5.2). Also, Jonathan Taylor isn’t human.
Jalen Hurts has obviously been an integral part of the Eagles running game and is now averaging 12 carries and 64.3 yards per game over their last four outings.
Hurts is only throwing the ball 19.5 times per game over the last month, but he’s still finished as a top-12 scoring QB in three-straight game thanks to his legs.
The other thing that the Eagles have changed up offensively is they’ve stopped throwing it to their bad players. Jalen Hurts has thrown it 78 times in their last four games and Dallas Goedert (31% target share) and DeVonta Smith (28%) have seen 44 targets combined.
Miles Sanders fumbled on the Eagles first play of the second quarter, then only got 1 carry on their next five possessions.
Sanders ended up leading their backfield in carries (16) and snaps (46%) after Jordan Howard exited early.
After missing just one game with a toe injury, Chase Claypool was reinstalled as a full-time player. He ran a route on 47 of the Steelers 51 pass plays against the Chargers.
Diontae Johnson has seen exactly 13 targets in five of his last 7 games.
San Francisco 49ers
After catching just 9 balls for 96 yards in his first six games, Aiyuk has totaled 20/245/2 over his last four after having one of his best outings of the year against the Jaguars.
The trust factor in Aiyuk is clearly back – he’s seen 7 or more targets in three of his last 4 games.
Aiyuk has the same number of total targets (19) in his last three games as George Kittle.
The Seahawks play volume continues to be pitiful. They’ve run just 550 total plays this season, which is lowest in the league by far and 200 (!!) shy of the Chiefs. (H/T Danny Kelly).
Since returning, Russell Wilson leads all QBs in average depth of target (11.0 yards downfield)… but is dead last in on-target throws (57.1%) per SIS.
DeeJay Dallas and Alex Collins split snaps (18 apiece) while Rashaad Penny mixed in for 8 snaps in their loss to Arizona.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin with Antonio Brown out of the lineup: 19.5 FPG.
Godwin with AB in the lineup: 14.5 FPG.
Titans RB snaps with Jeremy McNichols out last week: Dontrell Hilliard (63%), Adrian Peterson (19%), and D’Onta Foreman (19%).
Peterson needs 368 yards over the remainder of this season to pass Barry Sanders for fourth on the all-time rushing list.
In two back-to-back good game-scripts against Tampa and Carolina, Antonio Gibson has gotten 24 and 19 carries out of Washington’s bye in Week 9.
The bad news is that Gibson is still rarely involved in the passing game. He’s run a route on just 24 of their 69 pass plays (35%) over the last two weeks.
Terry McLaurin’s roller coaster season continued with a strong 5/103/1 showing against the Panthers.
McLaurin has now finished as a top-10 scoring WR four times this season while finishing as the WR33 or worse in his other six games.