Week 11 Game Hub: MIA-NYJ

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Week 11 Game Hub: MIA-NYJ

Miami Dolphins (3-7, 4-5-1 ATS) at New York Jets (2-7, 2-7), 1 p.m.

Brolley’s Dolphins Stats and Trends

  • Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.

  • Miami is 4-1 toward unders in its last five games.

  • The Dolphins earned outright and ATS wins in both games against the Jets last season.

  • The Dolphins didn’t score an offensive touchdown until two minutes were left against the Ravens last week, and they still walked away with a 22-10 victory as eight-point home underdogs.

  • Tua Tagovailoa played fairly well in emergency duty last week — he didn’t start because of a fracture finger on his throwing hand — guiding the Dolphins to the unexpected victory by completing 8/13 passes for 158 yards with a goal-line TD plunge. Tua posted 22+ FP in his first two games back from a rib injury in Weeks 6-7, and he averaged 42.0 passes per game in his first three games back from his rib injury. The Jets have given up multiple TD passes, 255+ passing yards, and 21+ FP in five straight contests.

  • Jaylen Waddle will be the clear #1 WR again with DeVante Parker (hamstring, IR) set to miss at least one more game. He saw a disappointing six targets last week against the Ravens, but he still reached double-digit FP for the fourth time in five contests with 4/61 receiving. The Jets have been rocked by WRs since their Week 6 bye, and they’re giving up 14.1 YPR to WRs.

  • It had been exactly two months, but we got one of Mike Gesicki’s duds in a great matchup against the Ravens. Gesicki entered Week 10 as the TE8 with his 12.3 FPG average, but he left his showdown with Baltimore with no catches on a team-high seven targets (19% share). He previously posted a goose egg against the Patriots in the season opener and it’s the seventh time he’s walked away without a catch in his first four seasons. It hurt even more to see Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe combine for 4/57 receiving on five targets, but at least he saw a position-best 81% of the snaps, which is his sixth straight game with 70% of the snaps or more. Gesicki strung together eight straight games with 3+ catches and 40+ yards before his dud. The Jets are giving up the 12th-most receiving yards per game (59.4) to TEs.

  • Myles Gaskin has alternated double-digit FP performances with non-double-digit FP performance in every game this season. The trend should continue this week after he scored just 5.5 FP against the Ravens last week. He gets the friendliest matchup for RBs this week against a Jets defense that gave up four touchdowns to Bills’ RBs last week. Gaskin has seen 58% of the snaps or more in four straight games, and he’s averaging 18.8 touches per game in that span…for just 3.1 yards per touch.

Brolley’s Jets Stats and Trends

  • New York has failed to cover in five straight games against teams with losing records.

  • The Jets have played over the total in six straight games.

  • Mike White’s feel-good story is over after an ugly four-INT performance against the Bills in Week 10. However, rookie Zach Wilson isn’t quite ready to return to the lineup, and the Jets will go with veteran Joe Flacco for at least a game. Flacco started four games for the Jets last season, averaging 212.0 passing yards, 1.5 passing TDs, and .8 INTs per game in those contests. Miami’s secondary has played better of late, limiting Tyrod Taylor and Lamar Jackson to one combined passing TD and 478 passing yards. Miami’s defense sacked Lamar four times and they limited him to a season-low 5.5 YPA in their victory.

  • Corey Davis stepped back into the lineup off of a two-week layoff, and he led the Jets with 5/93 receiving on seven targets. He’s posted 4+ catches in six of his seven games this season, but he’s seen more than seven targets in a game just once. The Dolphins’ secondary has played better of late, but Rashod Bateman still finished with 6/80 receiving in this matchup last week.

  • Jamison Crowder continues to lead this WR corps in routes each week but he’s finished with fewer than 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games. Rookie Elijah Moore continues to be a part-time perimeter receiver, and he’s still managed to produce double-digit FP with 6+ targets in four straight games. Moore could give us a floor game at any point unless the Jets’ coaching staff finally elevates him at some point. The Dolphins limited Marquise Brown to 6/37 receiving on 13 targets for 2.8 YPT last week.

  • Michael Carter saw his snap share dip to 52% with Tevin Coleman returning to the lineup last week, but he still handled 20 touches for 82 yards and one TD in a tough matchup against the Bills. He now has 14+ FP in four of his last five games. Ty Johnson also had his four-game run with double-digit FP snapped last week with 5/36 receiving on eight targets. Flacco should keep these RBs involved in the passing game, and the Dolphins are giving up a solid 125.5 scrimmage yards per game to RBs.

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

Dolphins

Pace (seconds in between plays): 24.5 (1st)

Plays per game: 68.3 (11th)

Pass: 68.0% (3rd) | Run: 32.0% (30th)

Jets

Pace: 27.2 (17th)

Plays per game: 68.7 (8th)

Pass: 69.8% (1st) | Run: 30.2% (32nd)

All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.

Pace Points

I know no one is necessarily excited to watch Dolphins-Jets, but there is certainly some scoring upside here. This game is tied with Chargers-Steelers for the quickest on the Week 11 slate in adjusted combined pace and both offenses are throwing a ton to boot. Over the last eight weeks, the Dolphins are the No. 2 team in pass rate above expectation (+9.3%) by necessity – they simply can’t run the ball effectively. Especially with Tua Tagovailoa back under center, the Dolphins have more fantasy appeal in this spot than at any other point this season. The Jets have given up 40.4 total points per game including over 20 FP to every quarterback they’ve faced over the last five weeks.

My only concern about the scoring potential in this game – and it’s a big one – is the Jets offense led by Joe Flacco. After the Mike White dream died last week, the Jets are giving Zach Wilson some more time to get right. Flacco made four starts for the Jets last year, one of which was against the Dolphins and he completely bombed (21-of-44, 186 yards, 4.2 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks) as New York scored zero points. Miami blitzed Flacco into oblivion in that game, sending five or more pass rushers on 41% of his dropbacks and you’d think they’d take a similar plan here.

Huber’s Key Matchup Notes

With an average of 9.4 targets since Week 6, Jaylen Waddle has flipped his featured role into 19.4 FPG over that stretch. While the Jets actually managed to hold wideout production down for much of the season while the floodgates were open to success elsewhere, the wheels have come off over the last four weeks. Beginning with their humiliating 54-13 loss in Foxboro, no defense has relinquished more FPG to WRs (47.3).

It certainly helps Waddle’s cause that New York has been slightly more lenient toward production out of the slot. But it really doesn’t matter at this point.

With Joe Flacco inserted into the starting lineup, instead of targeting RBs facing Miami, we should all be targeting the wideouts. Opposing WRs are pulling in the third-most FPG (41.3) on the season, and 10th-most over the last four weeks (37.2). A large number of fantasy players will be off of Corey Davis due to the presence of Xavien Howard. But the Dolphins’ style currently doesn’t play to Howard’s strengths.

Dolan’s Vantage Points

All of a sudden, this matchup has new intrigue… for Eagles fans.

It’s well established why the Eagles want the Dolphins to lose, given they possess the Dolphins’ 2022 first-round pick. But they now have another reason to root for the Jets.

If you’ll remember, the Eagles traded Joe Flacco to the Jets when Zach Wilson (knee) went down a number of weeks ago, for a conditional pick. That pick is a 6th-rounder, but it can become a 5th rounder if Flacco plays 50% or more of the snaps in four games this year (essentially, does Flacco start four times).

Is that pick likely to convey? No. But hey, a couple of weeks ago, Mike White was sending memorabilia to the Hall of Fame.

When it comes to Flacco, let’s just hope he convinces the Jets to give rookie WR Elijah Moore more snaps. Here’s Graham from Stat-Pack:

  • I know Corey Davis was back, but the Jets cutting back on Elijah Moore’s snaps after he went 6/67 and 7/84/2 in his last two games is coaching malpractice…

  • Moore ran a route on just 29 of the Jets 53 pass plays in Week 10.

  • When you have Keelan Cole, you just have to get him involved… you have to! The Jets rotate Cole and Moore as the “starting” WR opposite Davis while Jamison Crowder manned the slot.

Of course, the fact that the Jets are actively starting Flacco over Wilson or White doesn’t exactly bode well for an exciting young player getting more snaps. For what it’s worth, Flacco has targeted Moore on two of his three pass attempts this season, resulting in a 2/40/1 line.

You might have noticed that the Jets have been absolutely crushed on the ground this year, allowing just titanic production to fantasy RBs. The question is if Myles Gaskin is good enough for that to matter. Here’s Graham again!

  • The good news? Myles Gaskin has played on 63% of the Dolphins snaps and handled 78% of the RB carries without Malcolm Brown over the last three weeks.

  • The bad news? Gaskin has turned his 46 carries into 101 yards of offense for 2.2 yards per carry.

  • The other bad news? Gaskin is not an efficient receiver despite being a scatback. He’s averaging just 1.01 yards per route run, which ranks fifth-worst among the 23 RBs with 30 or more targets this season.

I still like Gaskin as an RB2 this week. I never trust starting him, but if he doesn’t come through this week, when will he? Here’s Scott Barrett from Start/Sit:

“Listen, I know what you’re thinking, but try to hear me out here…

Over the last two weeks, Gaskin has appeared to have gained a stranglehold over the backfield, handling 35 of 41 carries (85%), 9 of 11 targets (82%), and 5 of 5 opportunities inside the 10-yard-line (100%). That comes out to 17.5 carries per game, 4.5 targets per game, and 17.1 XFP/G (~RB9).

And this isn’t just a great matchup. It’s a historically great matchup. The Jets rank worst in YPC allowed (4.88), worst in rushing FPG allowed (22.5), 2nd-worst in receiving FPG allowed (15.3), and worst in total FPG allowed to opposing RBs (37.8). They’re giving up an astounding +13.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (1.7X more than the next-closest team) and +17.8 over the last five weeks (1.9X more than the next-closest team). For perspective, the league’s worst defense against RBs last year (Detroit), gave up just +7.8 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs.

Even if we take Gaskin’s lowly season-long average of 11.7 FPG, and we assume he gets the 87% share of the backfield (by XFP) he’s had over the last two weeks, we should be expecting somewhere between 23.5 and 27.2 fantasy points this week, just based on the matchup alone. Obviously, there’s more that goes into it than just that, and he’s rightfully become hard to trust. But you’re still starting him this week as a high-end RB2.”

Anyway, there’s no surprise that Tua Tagovailoa will start this week over the woeful Jacoby Brissett. From a fantasy perspective, all we ask is Tua keeps throwing it to the right people — the ones in our lineups. In the five games that DeVante Parker has missed, the targets for the Dolphins have gone Jaylen Waddle (43), Mike Gesicki (39), and Gaskin (28). The Dolphins stink… but at least they throw it to their good players.

By the way, either Tua isn’t feeling great or he’s just a mediocre cook. You decide.

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