We’re four to five weeks away from the fantasy playoffs, so here comes the stretch run. Every decision now is amplified – so let’s get these bills paid…
Here’s your Week 11 Stat-Pack:
Note: Bye week teams (Bears, Bengals, Giants, Texans) were not included.
The Cardinals got stomped and the game quickly got out of hand so they couldn’t run the ball, but James Conner’s role was amazing. He handled 82% of the snaps and widely out-snapped Eno Benjamin on passing downs (19 routes to 7).
Once again, Benjamin was barely involved while the game was still (somewhat) in question. Four of his 7 opportunities (carries + targets) came in the fourth quarter.
Zach Ertz’s snap rate has now increased in every game he’s played in Arizona: 49% > 73% > 80% > 82%.
These are Kyle Pitts’ weekly target shares in four games without Calvin Ridley: 22% > 22% > 23% > 26%.
For reference, Darren Waller leads all TEs in target share at 25% – so Pitts’ usage remains near the best at the position even if his box scores haven’t been great.
Again, Pitts is not a tight end. He’s a wide receiver. Without Ridley, Pitts has run 85% of his routes detached from the line of scrimmage, either split out wide or in the slot.
With Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) looking likely to miss some time, it’s certainly relevant that Wayne Gallman appears to have usurped Mike Davis…
After he was made a healthy scratch basically all year, Gallman came in and out-snapped (43% to 37%) and out-touched (16 to 4) Davis this past week.
Gallman getting a huge opportunity was likely a combination of the blowout loss and Davis’ ineffectiveness. Over his last six games, Davis is averaging a plodding 2.92 YPC.
Lamar Jackson is averaging 34.3 passes per game, which is easily a career-high.
Last year, Lamar threw it 25.1 times per game and in his 2019 MVP season he averaged 26.7 passes.
Devonta Freeman’s snaps have gone up in six-straight games and now Le’Veon Bell is gone.
I have no idea why, but Sammy Watkins’ return came at the expense of Rashod Bateman. On Lamar’s 53 dropbacks against Miami, Bateman ran 34 routes for a middling 64% involvement rate.
In their two previous games, Bateman was involved on 78% of Ravens’ pass plays.
Baltimore essentially made Devin Duvernay – not Bateman or Watkins – their full-time slot receiver in Week 10, too. Duvernay ran just two fewer routes than Bateman and aligned in the slot on 28 of his 32 routes (88%).
Josh Allen has now finished as a top-5 scoring QB in five of his last 7 games.’
Dating back to last year, Allen has scored at least 15 FP in 25-of-28 games (including postseason). His floor is unreal.
Cole Beasley labored through his rib injury and only played nine snaps in Week 10.
Dawson Knox returned to the lineup and ran a route on 26-of-35 pass plays (74%), but only got one target because Stefon Diggs was wide ass open all game long. The Jets thought it was a good idea to leave Diggs in single coverage with no safety help for much of the game. It didn’t go well for them!
Christian McCaffrey, once again, reminded us that he’s the Gold Standard in fantasy…
Even though he got tackled at the one-yard line twice, had a TD called back, and was vultured at the goal-line by Hubbard – CMC still managed to finish as the RB4 on the week with 26.1 FP against Arizona.
CMC has now scored over 20 FP in 20 of his last 23 games dating back to the start of 2019.
CMC has scored over 25 FP in 15-of-23 contests in this span.
CMC is averaging a whopping 14.5 FPG on his receiving stats alone since the start of 2019.
Just for reference of how crazy that is… Amari Cooper is the WR25 this season with 14.7 FPG.
The only player who is gaining more receiving yards per route run than CMC this year? Deebo Samuel (3.36). That’s right. A running back is second among all players in YPRR (3.18).
There is a chance Chuba Hubbard loses his No. 2 job to Ameer Abdullah here soon. Both backs split snaps (21% apiece) behind CMC. Abdullah looks far more explosive than Hubbard and can actually get open / catch the ball as a receiver, too.
Please just stay healthy CMC…
Just how good has Christian McCaffrey been this year?— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 16, 2021
He's gaining 3.18 receiving yards per route run, which is second-best among *all players* and behind only Deebo Samuel (3.36).
As a runner, CMC has gained 10+ yards on 17% of his carries. Only Nick Chubb (18%) is better.
Browns WR routes run in two games without OBJ: Landry (54), Peoples-Jones (50), Schwartz (24), Higgins (17).
Cleveland has also elevated David Njoku into a bigger role with Beckham gone. He and Austin Hooper have split routes right down the middle in their last two games (36 apiece).
Njoku is lining up all over the field (44% inline | 36% slot | 28% wide) while Hooper is essentially just a big slot wide receiver. Hooper has aligned in the slot on 61% of his routes in Weeks 9-10.
Jarvis Landry is playing in the slot 67% of the time while Donovan Peoples-Jones is out wide 80% of the time.
CeeDee Lamb has now finished as the WR16 > WR18 > WR1 > WR66 > WR11 over his last five games.
Michael Gallup’s return also signaled Lamb’s return back into the slot full-time as he aligned inside on 70% (16-of-23 routes) of Dallas’ passing plays before they pulled their starters in the blowout against Atlanta.
I know the box scores haven’t been anything to write home about, but Jerry Jeudy’s underlying efficiency has been great. He’s averaging 5.6 receiving yards gained per route run out of the slot – which is the third-best mark in the league behind only Cooper Kupp and Christian Kirk (6.4).
Teddy Bridgewater’s target distribution in their last three games with Jeudy back: Jeudy (25% target share), Patrick (17%), Fant (17%), Okwuegbunam (13%), Sutton (11%), Gordon (11%), Williams (8%).
Is the rookie finally separating? Javonte Williams played on 57% of Broncos’ snaps in Week 10 – a season-high.
D’Andre Swift got unlucky with TDs last week, but his usage was amazing. Coming out of the Lions bye, he handled a season-high 93% of the snaps, got 87% of the RB carries, and tied for the team lead in targets (6, 24% share).
The Lions said they want to use Amon-Ra St. Brown more at flanker, but that didn’t come to fruition in Week 10. St. Brown lined up the slot on 23 of his 27 routes (85%) – which is right in line with how he’s been used all year.
Green Bay Packers
After Aaron Jones (knee) went down, AJ Dillon played on 17 of the Packers final 20 plays in the fourth quarter (85%).
As a combined unit, Packers RBs are putting up 26.3 FPG – ninth-most. The only other back on the roster who could legitimately threaten Dillon for touches right now is Patrick Taylor who is a 2020 undrafted free agent who was called up from the practice squad before Week 9.
Jonathan Taylor played on 84% of the Colts snaps against the Jaguars, a career-high.
After playing on about half of the team’s snaps in Weeks 1-5, Taylor hasn’t dipped below a 65% snap share in five-straight.
Since finally getting this bell cow role in Week 6, Taylor has finished as the weekly RB3, RB5, RB6, RB2, and RB5 over his last five games.
Since Week 6, JT leads all players – not just RBs – in FPG (25.5).
Coming off his ankle/heel injury, James Robinson was loaded up with 17 opportunities (carries + targets) while Carlos Hyde had just four.
Over his last five games that he’s finished, Robinson is averaging 19 touches, 108.4 scrimmage yards, and 21.04 fantasy points per game.
Robinson’s weekly finishes in this stretch: RB4, RB8, RB12, RB12, and RB12.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes was unconscious on SNF vs. the Raiders as he was on-target on 91% of his unpressured throws. That is the second-best single game he’s had this season.
For reference, Mahomes was on-target on just 78% and 69% of his throws from a clean pocket in Weeks 8-9, which marked two of his 3 worst games of the season.
Mahomes still struggled when he had pressure, though, and that has been a common theme of his 2021. Mahomes completed just 36% of his throws for 3.2 YPA against the Raiders when he was pressured.
This year, Mahomes ranks 26th-of-31 QBs in passer rating (54.1) when facing pressure.
For reference… Mahomes’ passer rating when pressured last year: 81.7 (10th-best).
Mahomes’ rating when pressured in 2019: 84.7 (fourth-best).
Las Vegas Raiders
- Raiders target distribution over their last two games: Waller (18), Renfrow (18), Drake (11), Jacobs (9), Edwards (8), Jones (7).
Los Angeles Chargers
I counted at least four drops for the Chargers against the Vikings, two of which were on their final drive and were back-breakers. Austin Ekeler dropped a pass on an angle route that would have been a 20+ yard gain early on the drive and Mike Williams dropped a sure-fire TD on 2nd & 4 from the eight yard line.
One big thing the Chargers are missing right now is deep speed. They just don’t have a burner to stretch the field and it’s allowing defenses to keep everything in front of them. As a result, Justin Herbert’s average depth of target has plummeted to just 7.3 yards (27th-of-35 qualifying QBs).
Just 8.8% of Herbert’s throws have traveled over 20 yards in the air, which ranks 30th.
For reference, 8.6% of Trevor Siemian’s throws have gone over 20 yards.
Los Angeles Rams
So, over the Rams two-game skid, we’ve seen the Titans and the 49ers rarely blitz and just play things straight up on the back end…
In Week 9, the Titans blitzed the Rams just 12.1% of the time (third-lowest rate of the week).
And last week on MNF, the 49ers blitzed Matthew Stafford just 10.6% of the time (also the third-lowest rate).
I’m wondering if the Titans and 49ers – two very well coached teams – picked up on how good Stafford has been when blitzed this year…
When blitzed, Stafford has been on-target on 81.2% of his throws (fourth-best) for 8.62 YPA and a 7:0 TD-to-INT ratio this year.
Dolphins target distribution in the five games that DeVante Parker has missed: Waddle (43), Gesicki (39), and Gaskin (28). The Dolphins stink… but at least they throw it to their good players.
The good news? Myles Gaskin has played on 63% of the Dolphins snaps and handled 78% of the RB carries without Malcolm Brown over the last three weeks.
The bad news? Gaskin has turned his 46 carries into 101 yards of offense for 2.2 yards per carry.
The other bad news? Gaskin is not an efficient receiver despite being a scatback. He’s averaging just 1.01 yards per route run this season, which ranks fifth-worst among the 23 RBs with 30 or more targets this season.
Over his last 17 games, Justin Jefferson has 109 receptions, 1,548 yards, and 8 TDs.
Jefferson has cleared 70 yards receiving in now 16 total games over the last two years, which is tied for the league lead with Stefon Diggs and Travis Kelce.
New England Patriots
The Patriots obviously don’t have a single “elite” fantasy option, but their sum of parts has added up to a damn good offense…
New England has scored on 47.6% of their possessions, which is second-best and only behind the Bills (49.5%).
Over his last six games, Mac Jones hasn’t put up huge numbers – but his underlying efficiency has been great (68% completions, 8.1 YPA, 103.3 passer rating).
This is a good nugget from Dolan putting Hunter Henry’s unique season into context…
#Patriots Hunter Henry is on pace for 12 receiving TD... with just 600 receiving yards. That would be the second-fewest receiving yards in NFL history with 12 or more receiving TD.— Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) November 16, 2021
Julius Thomas has 12 TD on just 489 receiving yards (!) in 2014... and in just 13 games.
New Orleans Saints
- With Alvin Kamara (knee) sidelined and Ty Montgomery (hand) banged up, Mark Ingram handled 85% of the Saints snaps and ran a route on 64% of their pass plays.
New York Jets
I know Corey Davis was back, but the Jets cutting back on Elijah Moore’s snaps after he went 6/67 and 7/84/2 in his last two games is coaching malpractice…
Moore ran a route on just 29 of the Jets 53 pass plays in Week 10.
When you have Keelan Cole, you just have to get him involved… you have to! The Jets rotate Cole and Moore as the “starting” WR opposite Davis while Jamison Crowder manned the slot.
Michael Carter is averaging 13.8 carries and 7.8 targets per game over his last four outings.
Jalen Hurts averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1-7.
Over the last three weeks, Hurts has dipped to 18 passes per game.
The Eagles shift to a more run-heavy approach hasn’t hurt his rushing volume, though. Over the last three games, Hurts is averaging 10.3 carries and 62 rushing yards per game.
In Weeks 1-7, Hurts put up 9.4 carries and 51.6 yards per game.
Steelers WR routes in Week 10 with Chase Claypool out: Washington (53), Johnson (52), McLoud (47).
Eric Ebron’s return indeed hurt Pat Freiermuth’s role… sigh. Frieremuth ran a route on just 61% of the Steelers pass plays while Ebron was at 32%.
In Week 9, Freiermuth ran a route on 73% of the Steelers pass plays.
San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel is averaging 6.1 receiving yards gained per route run when lined up out wide, which is second-best in the league behind only Davante Adams (6.5).
Deebo is also averaging 4.9 yards per route run when lined up in the slot, which is fifth-best.
Deebo is putting up… get this… 13.2 yards after the catch per reception (!!!) when aligned in the slot. This is easily tops in the league ahead of second-best WR Rondale Moore (9.6).
Deebo has accounted for 42% of the 49ers receiving yardage, which is the highest rate in the league. Cooper Kupp (40%) ranks second-best.
I’m definitely willing to give Russell Wilson a pass for his bad performance coming off a long layoff. However, I am concerned that Pete Carroll will put the lid back on this offense after they went extremely pass-heavy against the Packers…
The Seahawks went 70% pass-heavy on early downs in Week 10, which was the second-highest rate behind only the Rams (79%). Keep in mind, L.A. was behind by multiple scores for basically the entirety of that game against San Francisco while Seattle was still down just 3-0 heading into the fourth quarter against Green Bay.
Before Wilson got hurt, the Seahawks were perfectly balanced (53% pass | 47% run) with their early down play selection in Weeks 1-4 despite the fact that Wilson was averaging a league-high 10.1 YPA on his 1st and 2nd down throws.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs’ came out of their bye and decided to give Ronald Jones a grand total of… 1 snap. Lol.
Since Tampa finally decided to bench RoJo in Week 4, Leonard Fournette has finished as the RB15 or better in five of his last 6 games.
Titans RB snap distribution in Week 10 vs. Saints: Foreman (21), Peterson (20), McNichols (16).
Over the last two weeks, Peterson (11) leads the team in snaps inside-the-10 (red-zone) ahead of Foreman and McNichols (4 apiece).
Foreman (8) led the way on early-down, non-red-zone carries this past week ahead of Peterson (7) and McNichols (2).
- Antonio Gibson got a season-high in carries (24) and got an eight game high in snaps (63%) out of their bye.