Cincinnati Bengals (5-4, 4-5 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-4, 4-5), 4:05 p.m.
Brolley’s Bengals Stats and Trends
The Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
Cincinnati has played over the total in three straight games.
Joe Burrow had his eight-game run with multiple TDs to open the season snapped in Cincinnati’s final game before their bye — he also had three TDs in three straight games in Weeks 6-8. He also had 20+ FP in five straight games before the Bengals laid an egg against the Browns in Week 9. Patrick Mahomes just ripped the Raiders for 406/5 passing, and Las Vegas has allowed three of the last four QBs they’ve faced to reach 22+ FP.
Ja’Marr Chase finally fell short of double-digit FP for the first time in his career in Cincinnati’s 25-point loss to the Browns before their Week 10 bye, and his two worst fantasy performances came in Weeks 8-9. He’s still seen 9+ targets in five of his last six games with seven total scores to open his career. Even with Tyreek Hill blasting the Raiders for 7/83/2 receiving last week, Las Vegas is still giving up just 10.6 YPR to WRs this season.
Tee Higgins hasn’t scored since he found paydirt in his first two games of the season, but he’s posted 13 FP and 60+ yards in each of his last three contests heading into their Week 10 bye. The Raiders have held WRs to the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game (129.6) and the sixth-fewest FPG (31.0) this season.
Tyler Boyd has finished with fewer than eight FP in four of his last five games, and he had his second-worst FP output (2.1) the last time out with just an 11-yard catch on two targets against the Browns.
C.J. Uzomah has failed to find the end zone in consecutive games after scoring four TDs in a four-game span in Week 4-7. He still has 3+ catches in five of his last six games after posting 4/24 receiving on five targets in a loss to the Browns in Week 9. The Raiders are giving up the second-most FPG (18.2) to TEs, and they’ve allowed touchdowns to TEs in each of the last two weeks.
Joe Mixon has 25+ FP in three of his last four games thanks in large part to his sudden involvement in the passing game. He has 4+ catches and 45+ receiving yards in his three boom games after managing a combined 8/31 receiving in his first five games. It doesn’t hurt that he has at least one touchdown in six consecutive games. Darrel Williams just ripped the Raiders for 11/43 rushing and 9/101/1 receiving for 29.4 FP last week.
Brolley’s Raiders Stats and Trends
The Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
Las Vegas is 8-1 toward overs in its last nine home games.
Derek Carr has yet to throw for three or more TDs in nine games this season, and he’s thrown for exactly two TDs in 7-of-9 contests. He’s still averaging career-highs in yards per game (314.0) and YPA (8.1) heading into his showdown with the Bengals. Cincy is giving up the 10th-most passing yards per game (274.6) and Baker Mayfield averaged 10.4 YPA against the Bengals in Week 9.
Hunter Renfrow has five catches in 8-of-9 games, including exactly seven receptions in three straight games. He’s also scored touchdowns in consecutive games, but he’s failed to top 50+ receiving yards. The Bengals are giving up the fifth-most receptions per game (14.2) to WRs, but they limited Jarvis Landry to 3/11 receiving on five targets the last time they played.
Darren Waller flopped with just 4/24 receiving on seven targets against the Chiefs last week. He’s been snake bitten in the touchdown department this season after having a score taken off the board by an offensive penalty last week. He hasn’t scored in his last four games with just two scores overall, and he’s converted just one of his six end-zone targets this season. The Bengals allowed touchdowns to TEs in their last two games before their bye.
Bryan Edwards went off for 3/88/1 receiving against the Chiefs last week after everyone dropped him after his goose egg on four targets against the Giants in Week 9. He hasn’t seen more than four targets in four straight games, and he’s reached double-digit FP just four times in nine games. Donovan Peoples-Jones got loose for 2/86/1 receiving in this matchup in Week 9.
Josh Jacobs has fallen short of a 60% snap share in three straight games, and he’s coming off his worst performance of the season with 12/36 scrimmage for just 8.6 FP against the Chiefs. He’s at least posted 12 catches in his last three games after managing just 11 catches in his first four games. Kenyan Drake wasn’t much better last week, hanging just 6/31 scrimmage on a 31% snap share. The Bengals are giving up the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (77.8) and the fourth-most receiving yards per game (61.4) to RBs.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 28.9 (29th)
Plays per game: 63.0 (29th)
Pass: 61.6% (14th) | Run: 38.4% (19th)
Pace: 26.4 (11th)
Plays per game: 65.0 (23rd)
Pass: 64.2% (8th) | Run: 35.8% (25th)
All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.
Cincinnati used the run game as their identity early in the season, but have since switched to leaning heavily on their passing attack. Over the last eight weeks, the Bengals are 68% pass-heavy when the game is within a score – which is the fifth-highest rate in this span behind only the Jets, Dolphins, Rams, and Buccaneers. With their emphasis on the passing game growing, Joe Burrow is on fire after a slow start and is averaging 309.5 yards on 35.2 passes per game in his last six outings.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have stuck to passing way more as Derek Carr is having a career year. OC Greg Olsen has called the fifth-most pass-heavy offense when the game is within a score over the Raiders last four games (66% pass | 33% run). As a result, Carr has continued playing strong with 305.3 yards per game in this span. While both of these offenses don’t jump off of the screen in terms of pace and play volume, there is a path to this game turning into a shootout with both of these passing offenses rolling in hot.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
It’s not a welcomed road trip for Cincinnati into hostile Las Vegas territory after suffering their own consecutive defeats. And the WR leading the charge for the Raiders has been Hunter Renfrow since before the season began. The only opponent to limit Renfrow this season stands as Bryce Callahan — may he receive a swift recovery from surgery. With 7.7 targets/game, Renfrow has covered value in six-of-nine, and scored in his last two.
Between Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, Higgins has been the superior of the two against the Raiders’ typical coverage shells, and he’ll face the overly-generous coverage of Brandon Facyson — how badly Las Vegas must regret cutting Rasul Douglas. Boyd will be dealing with one of the top-three breakouts at nickel this season in Nate Hobbs.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
“After having two weeks off to stew over getting stomped by the Browns their last time out, Joe Burrow finds himself in a nice spot against this sliding Raiders defense. Over the last five weeks, Vegas has given up the fourth-most FPG (21.0) and a league-high 2.8 passing TDs per game. Before his poor showing in Week 9, Burrow had one of the safest floors in fantasy going with weekly finishes of QB11, QB17, QB9, QB1, and QB9 in his previous five games. Fire up Burrow confidently this week.”
Believe it or not, Boyd’s usage isn’t down as much as you’d think.
Last season, Tyler Boyd saw 110 targets. That accounted for 18.9% of all of the Bengals throws.— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) November 8, 2021
This season, Tyler Boyd is on pace for 104 targets (17 games). This accounts for 19.0% of all of the Bengals throws.
Still, the production isn’t there, Here’s Scott Barrett from Start/Sit:
“Since Tee Higgins’ return in Week 5, Boyd averages just 5.0 targets per game. Contrast that to Ja’Marr Chase’s 9.6 and Higgins’ 8.4. And Boyd averages just 7.6 FPG, compared to Chase’s 19.5 and Higgins’ 11.7.
So, you’ve probably already got the message by now, and have no intention of starting him. But in case you didn’t, you’re especially not starting him this week, against a Raiders defense that ranks 5th-best in FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs (10.1). Las Vegas’ rookie slot cornerback Nate Hobbs has drawn immense praise from Greg Cosell on all of our recent shows, and rightfully so, he currently ranks as PFF’s No. 6-highest graded CB. Boyd is an easy “sit” this week, and ranks as just a low-end WR4 in our projections.”
And Joe Mixon is obviously a stud now. Now fully recovered from his ankle injury he suffered in Week 4, he is running 21.3 routes per game over his last four outings. For reference of how great of a role that is, Alvin Kamara is running 21.7 routes per game – which is 12th-most among RBs. Mixon is the RB2 in FPG (22.8) behind only Jonathan Taylor over the last month. He’s, obviously, in your lineup.
The Raiders laid an absolute gigantic egg last week against the Chiefs, and it brought to mind a lot of the previous Raider midseason collapses. And fans are obviously worried. But overall, this is a good matchup for Derek Carr and company. I think the guys I trust most are Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, and frankly, I only “trust” Waller through the lens of the tight end position — he’s been a disappointment overall.
Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs has been limited in practice this week with a knee injury, and he couldn’t get going last week with the awful gamescript against the Chiefs.
Anyway, here’s one of my favorite quotes from the 2021 season, courtesy of Renfrow.
#Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow, on DeSean Jackson's catch and fumble: Focusing on the positives, that was a heck of a play.— Paul Gutierrez (@PGutierrezESPN) November 15, 2021